Pandemic Influenza: What do we know, what should we do?
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Transcript of Pandemic Influenza: What do we know, what should we do?
Pandemic Influenza: What do we know, what should we do?
Elizabeth L. McClure, MD, MPHAHC Office of Emergency Response
Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy CIDRAP
University of Minnesota
Seasonal Influenza
Pandemic Influenza
What creates a pandemic?
Novel virus: No population immunity Cause serious disease_ Transmitted person to person
Influenza Pandemics in the 20th Century
• 1918: Spanish Flu • 1957: Asian Flu• 1969: Hong Kong Flu • Seasonal influenza
strains are pandemic strains of years past
Avian Influenza and Human Influenza• All human influenza viruses arise from
avian viruses • Sometimes humans become victims of an
avian virus strain through close contact with birds
• Avian influenza viruses may evolve into new strains capable of infecting humans
Avian Influenza• Disease of domestic
poultry with a origin in migratory birds
• H5N1classification• Can infect mammals
including humans• Mortality rate of >60%
in humans• Don’t count on
seasonal respite
Control Strategies: Birds
Surveillance
Vaccination
Quarantine
Stamping out
Problems….
• Asia is too big• Lots of pressure for mutation: over thirteen
billion chickens in China alone• Most chickens live in backyard flocks• Lack of compensation for sick/dead
animals• People must choose hunger vs. disease
control• Recent successes or too soon to tell?
H5N1 in Humans: The Beginning
* origin of H5N1 Hong Kong 1997
Avian flu and people
Planning Assumptions• Risk of an influenza pandemic in the future:
100%• H5N1?: Unknown• Susceptibility will be universal• Planning will be based on severity of illness• Viral Illness:
– Incubation 1-4 days– Persons may be infectious before signs of illness
• Pandemic will occur in waves– 6-8 weeks– Multiple waves may occur over 18months-2 years
Don’t worry……we’ve got a plan!
The YOYO strategy
Infection Control: Basic Tools
Vaccine
Antivirals
Social Distancing Maneuvers
• Close schools• Keep children at home• Social distancing in workplace• Liberal leave policies• Home isolation and quarantine• Personal Preparedness
Concerns
• Communities must be ready to implement measures rapidly sustain reasonable compliance
• There is lack of traction for personal and community based preparedness efforts
Is there anything good about the bird flu scare??
• Modernize vaccine production techniques• Improve surveillance for animals and humans• Emphasizes the importance of public health• Modernizes outbreak or disaster communication
systems• Encourages citizens to be prepared for all
hazards
Discussion
• Important websites– CDC: www.cdc.gov– Federal Government:www.pandemicflu.gov– Fed Volunteer: www.ready.gov– World Health Organization: www.who.int– CIDRAP: www.cidrap.umn.edu