Pandemic Influenza: What do we know, what should we do?

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Pandemic Influenza: What do we know, what should we do? Elizabeth L. McClure, MD, MPH AHC Office of Emergency Response Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy CIDRAP University of Minnesota

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Pandemic Influenza: What do we know, what should we do? . Elizabeth L. McClure, MD, MPH AHC Office of Emergency Response Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy CIDRAP University of Minnesota. Seasonal Influenza. Pandemic Influenza. What creates a pandemic?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Pandemic Influenza: What do we know, what should we do?

Page 1: Pandemic Influenza: What do we know, what should we do?

Pandemic Influenza: What do we know, what should we do?

Elizabeth L. McClure, MD, MPHAHC Office of Emergency Response

Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy CIDRAP

University of Minnesota

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Seasonal Influenza

Pandemic Influenza

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What creates a pandemic?

Novel virus: No population immunity Cause serious disease_ Transmitted person to person

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Influenza Pandemics in the 20th Century

• 1918: Spanish Flu • 1957: Asian Flu• 1969: Hong Kong Flu • Seasonal influenza

strains are pandemic strains of years past

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Avian Influenza and Human Influenza• All human influenza viruses arise from

avian viruses • Sometimes humans become victims of an

avian virus strain through close contact with birds

• Avian influenza viruses may evolve into new strains capable of infecting humans

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Avian Influenza• Disease of domestic

poultry with a origin in migratory birds

• H5N1classification• Can infect mammals

including humans• Mortality rate of >60%

in humans• Don’t count on

seasonal respite

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Control Strategies: Birds

Surveillance

Vaccination

Quarantine

Stamping out

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Problems….

• Asia is too big• Lots of pressure for mutation: over thirteen

billion chickens in China alone• Most chickens live in backyard flocks• Lack of compensation for sick/dead

animals• People must choose hunger vs. disease

control• Recent successes or too soon to tell?

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H5N1 in Humans: The Beginning

* origin of H5N1 Hong Kong 1997

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Avian flu and people

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Planning Assumptions• Risk of an influenza pandemic in the future:

100%• H5N1?: Unknown• Susceptibility will be universal• Planning will be based on severity of illness• Viral Illness:

– Incubation 1-4 days– Persons may be infectious before signs of illness

• Pandemic will occur in waves– 6-8 weeks– Multiple waves may occur over 18months-2 years

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Don’t worry……we’ve got a plan!

The YOYO strategy

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Infection Control: Basic Tools

Vaccine

Antivirals

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Social Distancing Maneuvers

• Close schools• Keep children at home• Social distancing in workplace• Liberal leave policies• Home isolation and quarantine• Personal Preparedness

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Concerns

• Communities must be ready to implement measures rapidly sustain reasonable compliance

• There is lack of traction for personal and community based preparedness efforts

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Is there anything good about the bird flu scare??

• Modernize vaccine production techniques• Improve surveillance for animals and humans• Emphasizes the importance of public health• Modernizes outbreak or disaster communication

systems• Encourages citizens to be prepared for all

hazards

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Discussion

• Important websites– CDC: www.cdc.gov– Federal Government:www.pandemicflu.gov– Fed Volunteer: www.ready.gov– World Health Organization: www.who.int– CIDRAP: www.cidrap.umn.edu