PAGE Industries 4Q FY 2013

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    Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

    Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg. (yoy) 3QFY12 % chg. (qoq)Net Sales 209 154 35.5 216 (3.3)EBITDA 37 24 51.9 37 0.1

    EBITDA margin (%) 17.6 15.7 190bp 17.0 59bp

    Adj. PAT 24 17 38.5 25 (7.1)Source: Company, Angel Research

    For 4QFY2013, Page Industries (Page) reported a healthy set of numbers, which

    were in-line with our estimates at all fronts. The company's top-line grew by

    35.5% yoy to `209cr, against our estimate of `201cr for the quarter. The EBITDA

    margin for the quarter expanded by 190bp yoy and came in at 17.6%, mainlybecause of lower other expense as a percent of net sales. Consequently, the

    company reported a profit of `24cr, 38.5% higher yoy from `17cr in 3QFY2012,

    in-line with our estimate.

    Presence in fast growing segment with strong brand recall to drive growthPage operates in mid and premium category of the innerwear segment in India

    which is of the size of ~`5,000cr. The innerwear market in India which is growing

    at a rate of ~24%, is underpenetrated with per capita spend significantly lower

    than in other Asian peer markets, thus providing huge opportunity to the

    company. With a market share of 21% in mens segment and 12% in womens

    segment, we expect Page to tap the opportunity and report a revenue CAGR of

    21.8% to `1,282cr in FY2015E. Pages strong brand recall and pan-India

    distribution channel will aid it in capitalizing on the opportunity. Also, Page has

    aggressive expansion plan of manufacturing 196mn pieces p.a. by FY2017E from

    current 133mn pieces p.a. to meet the increasing demand as consumers are

    shifting from local to the branded products.

    Outlook and valuation:Given the huge market size, Pages predominant position,strong brand recall, high dividend payout and capacity expansion plans for next

    four years to cater to the increasing demand; we remain positive on the

    companys growth outlook. We expect Page to register a revenue and a profit

    CAGR of 21.8% and 23.4% to `1,282cr and `171 respectively over FY2013-15E.

    At the CMP, the stock is trading at a PE of 27.6x FY2015E earning. We maintainour Accumulate recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of`4,611 with a target PE of 30.0x for FY2015E. Key financialsY/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 492 683 863 1,057 1,282% chg 44.8 39.0 26.3 22.5 21.2

    Adj. Net Profit 59 90 113 139 171% chg 47.9 53.9 24.8 23.7 23.2

    OPM (%) 18.5 19.5 19.0 19.4 19.6EPS (`) 52.5 80.8 100.9 124.8 153.7

    P/E (x) 80.7 52.4 42.0 34.0 27.6

    P/BV (x) 38.2 28.5 22.1 16.8 12.4

    RoE (%) 52.6 62.3 59.3 56.3 51.8

    RoCE (%) 39.3 47.2 51.3 50.6 49.3

    EV/Sales (x) 9.8 7.0 5.6 4.6 3.8

    EV/EBITDA (x) 53.1 35.9 29.3 23.5 19.2

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    ACCUMULATECMP `4,265

    Target Price `4,611

    Investment Period 12 months

    Stock Info

    Sector

    Net debt (`cr) 59

    Bloomberg Code

    Shareholding Pattern (%)

    Promoters 57.5

    MF / Banks / Indian Fls 17.4

    FII / NRIs / OCBs 19.6

    Indian Public / Others 5.5

    Abs.(%) 3m 1yr 3yr

    Sensex 7.2 23.9 19.3

    PAGE 28.6 42.4 426.2

    PAG IN

    Avg. Daily Volume 984

    Face Value (`) 10

    BSE Sensex 19,760

    Nifty 5,986

    Reuters Code PAGE.BO

    52 Week High / Low 4,424 / 2,680

    Textile

    Market Cap (`cr) 4,729

    Beta 0.2

    Tejashwini Kumari022-39357800 Ext: 6856

    [email protected]

    Page IndustriesStrong performance on all fronts

    4QFY2013 Result Update | Textile

    May 31, 2013

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    Page Industries | 4QFY2013 Result Update

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    Exhibit 1:3QFY2013 performanceY/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg. (yoy) 3QFY12 % chg. (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chgNet Sales 209 154 35.5 216 (3.3) 863 683 26.3Net raw material 103 74 37.9 104 (1.0) 420 329 27.6(% of Sales) 49.1 48.2 47.9 114 48.7 48.2

    Employee Cost 40 30 30.8 37 9.0 144 114 26.1

    (% of Sales) 19.0 19.7 16.9 214 16.6 16.7

    Other Expenses 30 25 18.3 39 (23.9) 135 107 26.5

    (% of Sales) 14.3 16.4 18.2 (388) 15.7 15.6

    Total Expenditure 172 130 32.4 179 (4.0) 699 550 27.1EBITDA 37 24 51.9 37 0.1 164 133 23EBITDA margin (%) 17.6 15.7 190bp 17.0 59bp 19.0 19.5 (47)bp

    Interest 3 2 89.7 2 78.3 8 7 19.8

    Depreciation 3 3 14.0 3 7.9 11 11 6.9

    Other Income 4 4 (14.3) 5 (31.3) 21 18 13.3

    PBT 34 24 42.1 38 (8.4) 166 134 23.4(% of Sales) 16.4 15.7 17.4 19.2 19.6

    Tax 11 7 50.5 12 (11.3) 53 44 20.5

    (% of PBT) 31.2 29.5 32.2 32.1 32.8

    Reported PAT 24 17 38.5 25 (7.1) 113 90 24.8Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - -

    Adjusted PAT 24 17 38.5 25 (7.1) 113 90 24.8PATM (%) 11.3 11.1 11.8 13.0 13.2

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Results in-line with estimates on all fronts

    For 4QFY2013, Page reported healthy set of numbers, in-line with our estimates

    on all fronts. The company's top-line grew by 38.5% yoy to `209cr from `154cr in

    the same quarter last year, against our estimate of `201cr for 4QFY2013.

    The sales growth was aided by healthy volume growth coupled with higher

    realization.

    The mens innerwear segment posted a healthy growth of 20.2% on a yoybasis to `101cr (volume growth 7.1% and value growth 12.2%),

    Womens innerwear segment grew by 51.3% on a yoy basis to `28cr (volumegrowth 25.5% and value growth 20.5%),

    The bra segment grew by 54.1% on a yoy basis (on lower base) to `14cr(volume growth 44.5% and value growth 54.1%),

    Exhibit 2:Actual vs. Estimates (4QFY2013)Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 Angel est. % diffNet sales 209 201 3.9EBITDA 37 36 3.0

    EBITDA margin (%) 17.6 17.7 (16)bp

    Reported PAT 24 24 (1.2)Source: Company, Angel Research

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    Page Industries | 4QFY2013 Result Update

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    The leisure wear segment grew by 39.6% on a yoy basis to `56cr (volumegrowth 44.5% and value growth 54.1%), and

    Speedo is witnessing robust growth. The company sold 1.9lakh pieces underthis brand in the quarter against 0.3lakh in 3QFY2013 and also the

    realization per unit has increased from `417 in the last quarter to `469 in

    4QFY2013.

    Exhibit 3:Healthy revenue growth

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 4:Revenue breakup (%)

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    The EBITDA margin for the quarter expanded by 190bp yoy and came in at 17.6%

    mainly on account of lower other expense as a percent of net sales, in-line with our

    estimate. The company reported a net profit of `24cr, 38.5% higher yoy.

    Exhibit 5:Margin improved owing to lower other expenses

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:Profit grew by 38.5% yoy

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    111

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    181

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    154

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    34.7

    47.442.9

    28.4

    38.5

    23.6 21.925.6

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    4QFY13

    (%)

    (`

    cr)

    Revenue (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)

    48.8

    13.3

    6.5

    27.0

    4.4

    Men

    Women

    Bra

    Leisure

    Speedo

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    19.717.2

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    17.0 17.6

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    r)

    EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA Margin (RHS)

    13

    28

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    17

    33

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    29.6

    102.1

    54.8

    27.532.5

    18.3 21.427.6

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    Page Industries | 4QFY2013 Result Update

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    Strong performance across segments

    Exhibit 7:Men segment

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 8:Women segment

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 9:Brassiere segment

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 10:Leisure wear

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    129

    135

    123

    108

    156

    147

    139

    115

    11.5

    14.6

    17.4 22.9

    21.1

    8.9

    12.8

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    4QFY13

    ($)

    (piece

    inlakh)

    Volume yoy growth (%)

    32

    29

    31

    25

    39

    35

    34

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    12.415.0

    24.9

    34.0

    21.6 22.5

    9.8

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    inlakh)

    Volume yoy growth (%)

    5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7

    63.4

    44.3

    33.7

    42.736.8

    39.9 39.344.5

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    33.240.3

    15.1

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    Page Industries | 4QFY2013 Result Update

    May 31, 2013 5

    Investment arguments

    Fast-growing premium segment

    Page operates in mid and premium category of the innerwear segment in Indiawhich is of the size of ~`5,000cr. The innerwear market in India which is growing

    at a rate of ~24%, is underpenetrated with per capita spend significantly lower

    than other Asian peers, thus providing huge opportunity to the company. With a

    market share of 21% in the mens segment and 12% in the womens segment

    coupled with rising urbanization and increase in discretionary consumer spending,

    we expect Page to tap the opportunity and report a revenue CAGR of 21.8% over

    FY2013-15E to `1,282cr in FY2015E.

    Strong brands and wide distribution network

    With the agreement of exclusivity for 18 years of JOCKEY, such a well renowned

    global brand, Page has a good visibility of growth. The royalty payment term is at

    5% per annum of factory price (net sales). JOCKEY is one of the most trusted and

    well-respected brands in the innerwear market in India with a strong brand recall.

    In addition, Page has a strong pan-India distribution channel across 1,200 cities,

    with 400 distributors, 72 Exclusive JOCKEY outlets and ~23,000 retail outlets.

    Response forSpeedo products encouraging in the market

    Page entered into a license and distribution agreement with M/s Speedo

    International, London, UK on July 1, 2011 for the exclusive right to manufacture

    and distribute Speedo products in India consisting of swimwear, apparel, water

    shorts, equipments and footwear. Speedo is the number one brand and product

    choice for swimmers around the world.

    Page launched the Speedo brand in India in January 2012. The brand is now

    available in 410 stores including large format stores in 12 cities and two Speedo

    exclusive brand outlets located in Delhi and Bangalore. Swimwear is in a nascent

    stage in India, growing at 25% on a current base of `200cr. With growing

    urbanization, the segment has a huge potential. Currently, Speedo contributes

    1.9% to the sales and we expect this contribution to increase in the coming years

    as the company is expanding the segment and is planning to offer new varieties.

    Expansion plan in place to cater to the increasing demand

    With the increasing demand for Jockey range of products, Page has hiked its

    capacity by 22% to 133mn units by spending ~`30cr and is further planning to

    increase its capacity to 196mn pieces per annum by FY2017E, incurring a capex

    of ~`30cr per year. Though Page has exclusive rights for manufacture and

    distribution of JOCKEY brand products in India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal

    and UAE; the current production is able to serve only the domestic market. With

    the capacity expansion, we believe Page will be able to meet wider demand.

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    Page Industries | 4QFY2013 Result Update

    May 31, 2013 6

    Financials

    Exhibit 11:Key assumptionsFY2014E FY2015E

    Volume growth (%) 16.6 16.8

    Realization growth (%) 3.8 4.0

    Blended MRP/piece 103 108

    Source: Angel Research

    Growing demand and price hike to drive top-line

    In FY2013, the company reported a strong top-line growth of 26.3% to `863cr

    amidst subdued market sentiments aided by strong volume growth, price hikes and

    favorable revenue mix. Based on immense potential of Indias consumption story,

    Pages predominant presence in the premium inner wear segment, strong brand

    recall coupled with increasing realisation, we expect the revenue to increase at a

    CAGR of 21.8% over FY2013-15E to `1,282cr. We expect men items, women

    items, bra, sports items and swimwear to grow at a CAGR of 16.5%, 26.9%,

    22.4%, 26.9% and 31.3% respectively over FY2013-15E. Also, the Union budget

    proposed to roll back the excise duty on readymade garments which will help the

    company in easing product prices.

    Exhibit 12: Increasing demand to drive volume

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 13:Segmental breakup

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Margin contracted marginally in FY2013, but expected tonormalize going forward

    The operating margin for FY2013 contracted marginally by 47bp owing to higher

    raw material price. However, we expect the margin to rebound to the previous

    levels going ahead on an expectation of softening of raw material price as

    inflation slows down. As a result, we expect the companys operating margin to be

    19.4% and 19.6% for FY2014E and FY2015E. Consequently we expect the profit

    to grow at a CAGR of 23.4% over FY2013-15E to `171cr.

    339

    492

    683

    863

    1,0

    57

    1,2

    82

    33.3

    44.8

    39.0 26.3

    22.5 21.2

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    FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E

    (%)

    (`c

    r)

    Revenue (LHS) Revenue growth (RHS)

    389

    464

    540

    629

    83

    112

    142

    181

    39 5466 81

    159

    216

    274

    348

    3 16 2128

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    FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

    (`cr)

    Men Items Women Items Bra Sports Items Swimwear

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    Page Industries | 4QFY2013 Result Update

    May 31, 2013 7

    Exhibit 14:Operating margin to improve going forward

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 15:PAT margin to improve going forward

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 16:Relative valuationCompany Year end Mcap Sales OPM PAT EPS RoE P/E P/BV EV/Sales EV/(` cr) (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) EBITDA (x)Page FY2014E 4,729 1,057 19.4 139 124.8 56.3 34.0 16.8 23.5 4.6

    FY2015E 4,729 1,282 19.6 171 153.7 51.8 27.6 12.4 19.2 3.8

    Lovable Lingerie* FY2014E 466 188 18.1 25 15.6 13.3 17.6 2.3 10.8 2.0

    FY2015E 466 246 17.4 31 18.6 13.8 14.8 2.1 8.6 1.5

    Source: Company, Angel Research; * Bloomberg estimates

    66

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    133

    164

    205

    251

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    19.6

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    FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E

    (%)

    (`c

    r)

    EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA Margin (RHS)

    40 59 90 113 139 171

    11.711.9

    13.213.0

    13.213.4

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    (%)

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    PAT (LHS) PATM (RHS)

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    Page Industries | 4QFY2013 Result Update

    May 31, 2013 8

    Outlook and valuation: We expect Page to register a revenue CAGR of 21.8% to`1,282cr over FY2013-15E. With the softening of inflation and hence the raw

    material prices, we expect marginal improvement in the operating margin to

    19.6% in FY2015E. Consequently the profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of23.4% to `171cr.

    Given the huge market size, Pages predominant position, strong brand recall,

    high dividend payout and capacity expansion plans for next four years to cater to

    the increasing demand; we remain positive on the companys growth outlook. At

    the CMP, the stock is trading at a PE of 27.6x FY2015E earning. We maintain ourAccumulate recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of `4,611with a target PE of 30.0x for FY2015E.

    Exhibit 17:One-year forward P/E band

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Concerns

    Competition from other players: An aggressive push by the existing branded,

    domestic and global players could affect the companys performance. However,

    considering that a majorityof the market remains untapped and is growing at a

    fast pace, we believe there is enough room for growth.

    Fluctuations in raw-material prices:Any rise in raw-material prices, especially

    cotton, can lead to margin compression, as the company may not be able to pass

    on the entire increase to the end-user.

    Company background

    Page is the exclusive licensee of Jockey International Inc. (USA) for manufacture

    and distribution of the JOCKEY brand innerwear/leisurewear for men and

    women in India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and UAE. Page Industries is also

    the exclusive licensee of Speedo International for the manufacture, marketing and

    distribution of theSpeedo brand in India.

    Page has a strong pan-India distribution channel across 1,200 cities, with 400distributors, 72 Exclusive JOCKEY outlets and ~23,000 retail outlets. Speedo is

    also available in 410 stores including large format stores in 12 cities and two

    Speedo exclusive brand outlets located in Delhi and Bangalore.

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    Page Industries | 4QFY2013 Result Update

    May 31, 2013 9

    Profit and loss statement

    Y/E Mar. (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 492 683 863 1,057 1,282

    Other operating income - - - - -

    Total operating income 492 683 863 1,057 1,282% chg 44.8 39.0 26.3 22.5 21.2

    Net Raw Materials 225 329 420 511 616

    % chg 45.7 46.5 27.6 21.6 20.6

    Power and Fuel 4 5 9 11 13

    % chg 59.0 20.9 63.8 22.5 21.2

    Personnel 90 114 144 176 213

    % chg 54.3 26.9 26.1 22.5 21.2

    Other 82 102 127 155 188

    % chg 39.3 24.6 24.6 22.5 21.2

    Total Expenditure 400 550 699 852 1030

    EBITDA 91 133 164 205 251% chg 38.7 46.2 23.3 24.8 22.7

    (% of Net Sales) 18.5 19.5 19.0 19.4 19.6

    Depreciation 10 11 11 14 17

    EBIT 81 123 153 191 234% chg 43.3 50.8 24.7 24.7 22.8

    (% of Net Sales) 16.5 17.9 17.7 18.0 18.3

    Interest & other Charges 5 7 8 11 12Other Income 12 18 21 25 31

    (% of Net Sales) 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.4

    Recurring PBT 76 116 145 180 222% chg 41.5 52.4 25.0 24.3 23.5

    PBT (reported) 88 134 166 206 253Tax 29 44 53 66 82

    (% of PBT) 33.1 32.8 32.1 32.3 32.3

    PAT (reported) 59 90 113 139 171Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) 0 0 0 0 0

    ADJ. PAT 59 90 113 139 171% chg 47.9 53.9 24.8 23.7 23.2

    (% of Net Sales) 11.9 13.2 13.0 13.2 13.4

    Basic EPS (`) 52.5 80.8 100.9 124.8 153.7Fully Diluted EPS (`) 52.5 80.8 100.9 124.8 153.7% chg 47.9 53.9 24.8 23.7 23.2

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    Page Industries | 4QFY2013 Result Update

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    Balance sheet

    Y/E Mar. (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 11 11 11 11 11Reserves& Surplus 113 155 202 270 370

    Shareholders Funds 124 166 214 281 381Total Loans 114 64 88 101 116

    Other Long Term Liabilities 19 28 32 32 32

    Long Term Provisions 2 2 3 3 3

    Deferred Tax (Net) 3 4 6 6 6

    Total liabilities 262 263 342 423 538APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 126 150 194 242 291

    Less: Acc. Depreciation 33 43 54 68 85

    Net Block 93 107 140 174 205Capital Work-in-Progress 1 3 3 3 3

    Goodwill - - - - -

    Investments 3 2 1 1 1

    Long Term Loans and advances 20 27 17 21 32

    Other Non-current asset 2 1 2 2 2

    Current Assets 219 231 309 367 470

    Cash 3 3 5 8 17

    Loans & Advances 26 12 11 14 51

    Inventory 165 173 235 282 326

    Debtors 26 44 58 62 75

    Other current assets - - 0 0 0

    Current liabilities 77 108 129 145 175

    Net Current Assets 143 123 180 223 295Misc. Exp. not written off - - - - -

    Total Assets 262 263 342 423 538

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    Cash flow statement

    Y/E Mar. (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 88 134 166 206 253

    Depreciation 10 11 11 14 17Change in Working Capital (73) 20 (55) (39) (64)

    Direct taxes paid (29) (44) (53) (66) (82)

    Others 4 2 (21) (25) (31)

    Cash Flow from Operations (0) 123 48 89 94(Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (21) (26) (43) (48) (48)

    (Inc.)/Dec. in Investments 0 1 1 - -

    (Incr)/Decr In LT loans & adv. (22) (6) 9 (4) (11)

    Others 16 5 28 25 31

    Cash Flow from Investing (27) (25) (6) (27) (29)Issue of Equity - - - - -

    Inc./(Dec.) in loans 60 (50) 24 13 15

    Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (34) (48) (65) (72) (72)

    Others 1 1 1 - -

    Cash Flow from Financing 27 (97) (40) (58) (56)Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (0) 1 1 4 8

    Opening Cash balances 3 3 3 5 9Closing Cash balances 3 3 5 9 17

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    Key ratios

    Y/E Mar. FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 80.7 52.4 42.0 34.0 27.6P/CEPS 69.1 46.9 38.2 30.8 25.1

    P/BV 38.2 28.5 22.1 16.8 12.4

    EV/Net sales 9.8 7.0 5.6 4.6 3.8

    EV/EBITDA 53.1 35.9 29.3 23.5 19.2

    EV / Total Assets 18.6 18.4 14.3 11.6 9.1

    Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 52.5 80.8 100.9 124.8 153.7

    EPS (fully diluted) 52.5 80.8 100.9 124.8 153.7

    Cash EPS 61.3 90.4 111.1 137.5 169.0

    DPS 26.0 37.0 50.0 55.0 55.0

    Book Value 111.0 148.6 191.4 251.9 341.5

    DuPont AnalysisEBIT margin 16.5 17.9 17.7 18.0 18.3

    Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

    Asset turnover (x) 2.5 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.8

    ROIC (Post-tax) 27.4 32.6 35.8 35.2 34.6

    Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 4.1 5.0 7.1 7.6 7.4

    Leverage (x) 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

    Operating ROE 47.9 42.4 46.8 44.2 41.6

    Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 39.3 47.2 51.3 50.6 49.3

    Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 41.0 48.5 52.7 52.0 51.1

    ROE 52.6 62.3 59.3 56.3 51.8

    Turnover ratios (x)Asset TO (Gross Block) 4.3 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.8

    Inventory / Net sales (days) 96 90 86 89 87

    Receivables (days) 17 19 21 21 21

    Payables (days) 64 61 62 62 62

    WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 77 70 62 67 70

    Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3Net debt to EBITDA 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4

    Int. Coverage (EBIT/ Int.) 15.6 18.4 19.1 18.0 19.7

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    M

    Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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    Disclosure of Interest Statement Page Industries

    1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

    2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

    3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

    4. Broking relationship with company covered No

    Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

    Note: We have not considered any Exposure below`

    1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors