P. R. Shukla
Transcript of P. R. Shukla
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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING WORKSHOP
January 19-20, 2004, New Delhi
Economic Environment Modeling: Policy Insights for
IndiaP.R. Shukla
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Economic Environment Modeling: Policy Insights for India
Few Key Q uestions for Emissions Policies
What are the IPCC SRES equivalent alternate emissions pathways for India?
What will be the future trends of emissions and intensities for India?
H ow are local and GH G emissions control policies linked?
What shall be the mitigation supply curve for India?
H ow shall South-Asia regional cooperation affect energy and emissions?
What shall be the implications of stabilization regime, e.g. 550 ppmv, on Indias
energy system during the century
Should we promote supply-side push of clean technologies (e.g, solar PV) for
GH G mitigation?
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Economic Environment Modeling: Policy Insights for India
Indian Emission Scenarios: Framework
Fragmented
IA1
e.g. China
IA2
Pre-reform(Mixed Economy Model)
IB1Sustainable Development
IB2Self Reliance Model
Centralization
Decen
tra
liza
tio
n
Market integration
Go
vernance
Integrated
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Indian Emission Scenarios
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400
500
600
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2000 2010 2020 2030
CarbonEmissions(MT)
IA1
IA2
IB1
IB2IA1T
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Energy and Carbon Emissions for India (IA2 Scenario):AIM/ MARKAL Model Analysis
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1995 2005 2015 2025 203
Year
Carbon(M
T)
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Year
ExaJoules
Coal
Oil
GasHydro
Nuclear
RenewablesBiomass
Carbon EmissionsEnergy Consumption
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Energy, Carbon, Electricity and GDP(H istory and Projections for Reference Scenario)
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1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Energy Carbon Electricity GDP
Past Trends
Future Projections
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1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Electricity
CarbonEnergy
Past Trends Future Projections
GDP intensities of Energy, Electr icity and Carbon(Reference Scenario)
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Large Point Sources of SO 2Emissions
Thousand Tons
A
B
C
D
E
F
Sectors L P S
covered
Po w er 9 4Steel 1 1
C em en t 8 5Fertilizer 3 1
Paper 3 3Su gar 2 8
C austic S od a 1 9C rud e refin ery 1 2
Petroch em ica l 1 4
H N O 3 m anu factu ring 5
H 2SO 4 m anufactu ring 6 3A lum inum 3C opp er sm elting 8
Lead sm elting 5Zinc sm elting 3
A lcohol p rodu ction 1 4
C oal m in ing 3 2N atu ra l gas p rod uction 9N . gas transportation 1 2
C rud e oil p roduction 7
M unicipa l solid w aste 1 4O ther industries 7
T o ta l 509
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Locations of Large Point Sources
20002030
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Economic Environment Modeling: Policy Insights for India
SO 2 Emission: AIM/ Emission Model Analysis
2000 2030
< 0.01
0.01-0.0170.017-0.0260.026-0.0350.035-0.044
0.044-0.053
0.053-0.060
> 0.060
Million Tons< 0.01
0.03
0.07
0.15
< 0.20
0.11
Million Tons
< 0.01
0.03
0.07
0.15
< 0.20
0.11
Million Tons
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GH G versus Local Emissions in India
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1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
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Carbon(MT)
Year
Million
Tonnes
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1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
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Carbon Emissions SO 2 Emissions
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Carbon Mitigat ion Supply Curve: (2005-2035)
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Carbon abatement (billion ton)
Cost($/TonofCarbon)
6 billion t ons of mitigation below $25/ ton ofcarbon
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Carbon Mitigation
(under different Post-Kyoto Scenarios)
Scenario
Kyoto Period
2000-2012
Medium Term
2000-2030
Long Term
2000-2100
750 ppmv 138 (3%) 743 (5%) 11334 (11%)
650 ppmv 301 (7%) 1555 (11%) 23666 (23%)
550 ppmv 449 (10%) 2503 (17%) 33284 (32%)
(in Million Ton)
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Economic Environment Modeling: Policy Insights for India
Technological Change in India to Stabilize CO 2 at 550ppmv
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Carbon C apture
Energy Efficiency
Wind
Solar
Biomass
Hydro
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India 550 ppm v emission
Reference Case Emissions
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2000
1600
550 PPMV
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Implications of Mitigat ion: Coal and Gas in IA2 Scenario
Coal Demand
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Exajoules
Reference
15%
Gas Demand
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1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Exajoules
5% 10%
20% 25%
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Regional Energy Market Development
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Total Primary Energy Supply Saving
Cumulative Saving in StrongCooperation: 60 EJ in 20 years
(2010-2030)
This is equivalent to $180billion cumulative
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2010 2020 2030
%S
aving
Medium Cooperation Scenario
Strong Cooperation Scenario
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Reduction in Carbon Emissions
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4
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12
16
2010 2020 2030
%D
ecrease
Cumulative Savings in ACS:
1.4 Billion tonnes of Carbon.
This is equivalent to $28
Billion saving
Medium Cooperation Scenario
Strong Cooperation Scenario
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Economic Environment Modeling: Policy Insights for India
Benefits from South-Asia Energy Cooperation (2010-2030)
Benefit (Saving)
$ Billion % of Region's GDP
Energy (Direct Benefits)
Energy 60 Exa Joule 180 0.48
Investment in EnergySupply Technologies
72 0.19
Investment in EnergyDemand Technologies
69 0.18
Environment (Indirect Benefits)
Carbon 1.4 Billion Ton 28 0.08
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 50 Million Ton 10 0.03
Total Direct and Indirect Benefits 359 0.98Spillover Benefits
Water 16 GW additional hydro capacity
Flood Control From additional damsCompetitiveness Reduced unit energy/ electricity cost
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Penetration of Advanced Technology: Competition Paradox
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Base
Hi-Solar
$25 TaxMed-Solar + $25 Tax
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5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
High Solar $25 Tax Med Sol+ $25 Tax
Solar PV Penetration Carbon Mitigation
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Economic Environment Modeling: Policy Insights for India
Development and Climate: Expanding theFrontier