PAGASA - DOST

Rainfall Forecast for Wednesday, 23 June 2010

Rainfall Forecast for Monday, 28 June 2010

RECENT CLIMATE CONDITIONS

• El Niño dissipated during early May. • On-going transition towards La Niña• La Niña expected to fully developed by September 2010

Global AdvisoriesGlobal Advisories

Season La Niña

Neutral

El Niño

JJA 2010 58% 41% 1%JAS

201061% 38% 1%

ASO 2010

62% 37% 1%

SON 2010

62% 37% 1%

OND 2010

62% 37% 1%

NDJ 2011

62% 37% 1%

DJF 2011

62% 37% 1%

JFM 2011

61% 38% 1%

FMA 2011

58% 41% 1%

TABLE - IRI Probabilistic ENSO Forecast for NINO3.4 Region- Made in June 2010

June 1-22, 2010

Actual (mm) % NormalNormal (mm)(1971-2000)

Actual Rainfall

Normal (mm) (1971-2000)

Forecast July 2010

Normal (mm) (1971-2000)

Forecast August 2010

Normal (mm) (1971-2000)

Forecast September 2010

Normal (mm) (1971-2000)

FORECAST OCTOBER 2010

Tropical Cyclone Forecast July-September (2010)

Weather Systems that may affect the country from June-September 2010

• Southwest Monsoon• Monsoon trough• Intertropical Convergence Zone

(ITCZ)• Tropical cyclone• Ridge of High Pressure Area

Presidential Proclamation No. 1535Typhoon and Flood Awareness Week

Every 3d week of June each year

21-27 June 2010• Kick-off launching ceremony

- MM Barangay officials, SMART, Jollibee, Phil. Science Journalists Association, Typhoon Committee Foundation, Inc - Series of IEC - Media Seminar on Meteorological hazards in Baler, Aurora

• No TC development until end of June 2010

• Below normal rainfall for June 2010 in many areas in the country

• La Nina condition expected September 2010 until the 1st Quarter of 2011

“tracking the sky . . . helping the country”