Ozymandias 2013 AEI 1.1
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Transcript of Ozymandias 2013 AEI 1.1
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ozymandias, 2013
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1. renter nation
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Renters: +3.6MOwners: -2.8M2010 Census
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Why Renter Nation is the New Normal
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Basic Math, FY 2012
Tax Revenues$2.469 trillionminus
Interest on Debt $360 billionMandatory
Spending$2.525 trillion
Total$2.885 trillionequals
Shortfall -$416 billion
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Discretionary Spending
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Discretionary Spending
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Federal spending on real estate?
Discretionary Spending
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Our Elites Have Lost Faith
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“Sustainable Homeownership”
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MIDQRMFHAWTF
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MID vs. MedicareQRM vs. Social Security
FHA vs. Section 8NAR vs. Public Unions
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2.8% turnout rate2.8% turnout rate
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Fight with Money?
Source: OpenSecrets.org
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“the commission recommends
consideration of further modifications to
federal tax incentives for
homeownership to allow for an increase
in the level of support provided to
affordable rental housing”
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let’s not forget our states and cities...
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Property Taxes vs. Police Protection
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Yes, but... The Fed!
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The Fed will own more than a third of the entire mortgage market by 2014...and... two-thirds of the entire bond market with maturity over 5 years
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this ride will come to an end
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Renter Nation is the New Normal
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Ah, but Millennials Are Coming!
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2. generation screwed
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Sure am Sure am glad I glad I
studied studied Business Business
and Italian and Italian in college!in college!
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source: prosumer-report.com - http://www.prosumer-report.com/blog/2012/03/12/moneyless-millennials-and-their-new-lives-of-financial-dependence/
40%
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NY FED ON STUDENT LOANS
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“My debt is crushing my chances of purchasing a home.”
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source: prosumer-report.com - http://www.prosumer-report.com/blog/2012/03/12/moneyless-millennials-and-their-new-lives-of-financial-dependence/
one of three
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pent-up demand?
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I can afford rent, but the dream of owning a home has become just as ludicrous as the one where I win the Olympic Gold Medal for figure skating. At 29, I no longer see home ownership as an option. I no longer see anything but renting in my future, and the only possibility is that one day I will be able to rent a home and pretend a little better than I do in this one bedroom apartment.
— Jennie Fernandez, 29Albuquerque, N.M
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10 years ago, Steve Jobs, Johnny Cash, and Bob Hope were still alive.
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Today, we have no Jobs, no Cash, and no Hope
X X X
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What about the ones who are buying?What are they like?
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The Elite Professional Class
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So what do these elite young professionals
think of real estate agents?
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HearItDirect Southern CaliforniaAUDIO #2
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
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Ah, but... Family Formation!
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60 / 40
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“In one Manhattan ZIP code, for example, women account for 63 percent of 22-year-olds.”
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Really?
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Conclusions & Even More Questions:Knowns:
• Government support for real estate simply cannot last• Elites have turned against homeownership• Gen-Y Will Not Save Housing• Real Estate Agent: Loss of Value• REALTORS(R) Can’t Win the Fight Over Pie
Unknowns:
• Will Europe hold up? Will China?• How will new laws, new taxes, & new regulations affect
employment?
Black Swan Events:• Open warfare• Currency Collapse• Zombies
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so... what do we do about this?
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towards a solution
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QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Gov. Chris Christie, February 16, 2011
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“Our calling for greatness at this time, is to confront these issues, say them out loud, stop playing around, and not waste another minute.”
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associations: reality check
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#1 reason for joining?Access to the MLS
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World Without MLS
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crisis of identitycrisis of purpose
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consumerist unionist activist
members are buyers
members are workers
members are activists
products and services
income protection
political power
competitorsloss of
franchiseapathy
Three Identities of Associations
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few love youmost don’t care about you
some hate you
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radical solutions for radical times
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political actionpolitical actionpolitical action
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old and bustedold and busted
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The New Hotness
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precinct by precinctempowering the local activist
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your greatest asset:
members who are social
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average: 190 friendsmedian: 100 friends
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grassroots movement
members as precinct captainsleverage social connectionsinfluence homeowners
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member
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member
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consequences:
intend to lose people
smaller, more focused, more engaged
divest non-essential operations
change in governance
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If not now, then when?
If not us, then who?- Hillel the Elder
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Questions?Comments?