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Ozone Transport Analysis Using Back-Trajectories and CAMx Probing Tools
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Ozone Transport Analysis Using Back-Trajectories and
CAMx Probing Tools
Sue Kemball-Cook, Greg Yarwood, Bonyoung Koo and Jeremiah Johnson, ENVIRONJim Price and Mark Estes, TCEQ
2010 CMAS Conference, October 11-13, 2010Chapel Hill, North Carolina
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Ozone Transport Presentation for CMAS
Background
• Lowering the 8-hour standard increases the importance of background ozone and transport
• Simulation of ozone transport in photochemical models will be critical for development of ozone control strategies
• CAMx probing tools can be used to quantify background ozone
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Ozone Transport Presentation for CMAS
Objectives
• Investigate ozone transport into Texas– Which source regions contribute to high ozone in Texas?– What effect do emissions changes in those source regions
have on Texas ozone?
• Use a suite of independent tools to analyze ozone transport– HYSPLIT back trajectories
Show pathways for air arriving at Texas monitors on high ozone days
New MM5CAMx-to-ARL tool reformats CAMx winds for input to HYSPLIT and calculates vertical velocities using CAMx algorithm
– CAMx probing tools APCA (Anthropogenic Precursor Culpability Assessment) HDDM (Higher order Decoupled Direct Method)
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Ozone Transport Presentation for CMAS
Using APCA and HDDM to Study Modeled Transport
• CAMx APCA and HDDM probing tools provide complementary information for transport analysis
• APCA– Can quantify contributions by source region and source
category to ozone at a given receptor and time– Does not give information about how such a contribution may
change if emissions change
• HDDM– Can provide estimates of model response to changes in
emissions
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Ozone Transport Presentation for CMAS
APCA/HDDM Source Region Maps
• APCA emissions source regions shown in red
• HDDM emissions source regions shaded– Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys (blue)– Southeastern U.S.
(pink)
• 3 emissions source categories – Elevated anthropogenic
emissions– Biogenic emissions– All other emissions
• Buffer around Texas, roughly corresponding to 12 km Texas domain
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Ozone Transport Presentation for CMAS
Episode Selection
• Modeled three Texas high ozone episodes during 2005-6
• Episode selection based on monitoring network and model performance evaluation results– More rural ozone monitors in Texas during 2006 than 2005
• Focus on periods of high diagnosed and modeled transport from Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and Southeastern U.S. – June 13-15, 2006
Good model performance in both 12 km grid and in source regions in 36 km grid; transport from OH-TN Valleys and SE diagnosed using HYSPLIT back trajectories
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Ozone Transport Presentation for CMAS
June 13-15, 2006 Transport Episode
• Back trajectories from TCEQ analysis using EDAS meteorological inputs to HYSPLIT
• Transport from OH-TN Valleys and SE into Texas
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June 13 June 14 June 15
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Ozone Transport Presentation for CMAS 8
June 9-15, 2006: MPE for Source Regions
• Good model performance with small positive bias
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys
SoutheastNormalized Bias
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
6/9
6/10
6/11
6/12
6/13
6/14
6/15
(%)
SE
+15%
-15%
Normalized Bias
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
6/9
6/10
6/11
6/12
6/13
6/14
6/15
(%)
OH+TN
+15%
-15%
Transport
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Ozone Transport Presentation for CMAS
Monitors Used in APCA/HDDM Analysis
• Used rural monitors sited upwind of non-attainment areas
• Selected monitors based on location and MPE
• During transport episodes, evaluated source contributions with APCA at these receptors at the time of daily max 8-hour average ozone (DM8)
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Ozone Transport Presentation for CMAS
San Augustine, TX: June 14, 2006
• Largest contributions from Louisiana, Tennessee, BCs, other states in OH-TN Valley source region
• APCA and HYSPLIT back trajectories are consistent in assessment of source regions
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Ozone Transport Presentation for CMAS
Ozone Sensitivity to Change in Elevated Anthro NOx Emissions in
the Source Regions• Sensitivity of DM8 to elevated anthropogenic NOx
(eaNOx) emissions in the OH-TN and SE source regions when > 60 ppb
• For eaNOx only, calculate sensitivities
S1OH-TN~∂O3 _____, S1
SE ~ ∂O3_____,
∂(eaNOxOH-TN) ∂(eaNOxSE)
S2
OH-TN~ ∂2O3________, S2SE ~ ∂2O3 ____,
∂(eaNOxOH-TN)2 ∂(eaNOxSE)2
where OT=Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, SE=Southeastern U.S.
• How sensitive is East Texas ozone to emissions in these source regions?
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Ozone Transport Presentation for CMAS
June 13-15, 2006: Average S1OT
and S2
OT
• S1OT generally positive and largest in source regions
– Emissions increase generally would increase ozone; emissions reduction would decrease ozone
– S1OT negative near large NOx sources; i.e. NOx reduction increases ozone (NOx disbenefit)
• East-west S1OT gradient across Texas, 1-4 ppb on average over episode in East TX
• S2OT largest in vicinity of large coal-fired power plants along the Ohio River
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Ozone Transport Presentation for CMAS
Sensitivity of Texas Ozone to Reductions in Source Region eaNOx
• For a given monitor, calculate ozone change from emissions perturbation Δε using Taylor series expansion about unperturbed state, C(0)
• C=ozone concentration, S(i) are sensitivities
• Where Δε=-0.20 for 20% emissions reduction in the source region, for example, and C(0)=DM8 at the monitor in the unperturbed case
– Neglecting higher order terms Rn+1
• Plot emissions change Δε versus change in ozone C(Δε)-C(0) at the monitor (next slide)
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Ozone Transport Presentation for CMAS
Change in Texas Ozone from Emissions Reduction in OH-TN Valley
Source Region
• Shows change in DM8 at rural TX monitors that would result from reducing eaNOx in OH-TN source region
• NEWT and SAGA show largest ozone reductions
-8
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-1
0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Chan
ge in
Dai
ly M
ax 8
-Hou
r O
zone
(pp
b)
Karnack
Temple
Greenville
Newton
San Augustine
June 14, 2006
Change in Daily 8-Hour Max Ozone with NOx Emission Reduction in
OH-TN Valley Elevated Anthro NOx
% Reduction in OH-TN Valley Elevated Anthro NOx Emissions
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Ozone Transport Presentation for CMAS
Zero-Out Contribution
• HDDM coefficients can be used to estimate effect on ozone of removing (zeroing out) one or more emissions sources
• For 2 emitters j and k, zero out contribution (ZOC) is calculated
• For the OH-TN and SE source regions, ZOC is given by
ZOC(OT+SE)=(S(1)OT-½S(2)
OT,OT)+ (S(1)SE-½S(2)
SE,SE)- S(2)OT,SE
• Here, we calculate components of ZOC for OH-TN and SE eaNOx emissions and present them separately, as cross term was negligible
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Ozone Transport Presentation for CMAS
Comparison of APCA and HDDM ZOC Estimates for eaNOx
• The APCA and HDDM tools agree on the relative importance of these two source regions in contributing to high ozone in Texas
• APCA and HDDM consistent with the HYSPLIT back trajectories
0
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APCA HDDM
Ozo
ne (p
pb)
Comparison of APCA Source Region Contributions and HDDM Zero-Out Contribution: San Augustine at Time of 8-Hour Max
ea NOx SE
ea NOx OT
June 14, 2006
HYSPLIT Back Trajectories
APCA/HDDM
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Ozone Transport Presentation for CMAS
Conclusions
• HYSPLIT, APCA and HDDM provide complementary information on – model winds that define transport pathways from source
regions to receptor regions– ozone source apportionment– sensitivity of receptors to emissions changes in the source
regions
• Because their formulations are independent of one another, each of these tools can serve as a way to evaluate information provided by the others
• Used in combination, these tools can provide a valuable resource for control strategy development.
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Ozone Transport Presentation for CMAS
Questions?