Ozner Waterir.ozner.net/cms/html/client/oznerwater/attachment/201507090653021... · Ozner Water...
-
Upload
truongdien -
Category
Documents
-
view
214 -
download
0
Transcript of Ozner Waterir.ozner.net/cms/html/client/oznerwater/attachment/201507090653021... · Ozner Water...
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
Equity Research
July 9, 2015
Ozner Water
Water purification bellwether with explosive growth
Initial Coverage
Initiate with BUY Investment positives
Leading commercial water purifier supplier. 1) Ozner has a share of 5.4% in the commercial water purifier market. 2) Its leasing model can generate enough rental revenue within the first two years to cover the cash cost of the leased purifiers. 3) Ozner plans to offer lump-sum products targeting households.
Strengths: 1) focus on the RO (Reverse Osmosis) method water purifiers with smart solutions and good control of wastewater rate; 2) a professional brand image built with installations in office buildings and commercial premises. Weaknesses: 1) cash flow is the key growth constraint due to the leasing model; 2) weaker capabilities of mass distribution and production compared with home appliance companies.
Explosive growth of China’s water purification market. 1) China’s retail water purification market grew ~69% YoY to Rmb16bn in 2014 and its growth rate will likely remain >40% in the next six years. 2) RO purifiers are the future trend. 3) Market concentration remains low due to various new entrants.
Water purifier installations will produce steady annual filter replacement needs. 1) The company's profit model is to charge continuous service fees. 2) A total of 657k sets were installed by end-2014. This number is expected to reach 2.84mn by end-2018. The installations are expected to contribute profit of ~Rmb1,576/set within the user life cycle (after discount).
Financials
1) A 10-year depreciation policy is used for leased products (we provide a sensitivity analysis under different depreciation periods). 2) No profit is generated during the first year for lump-sum products. Profit comes from future filter replacement services. 3) The company will be in a user expansion period over the next six years. Cumulative annual growth rate of its user base will be over 40%. During this period, neither net profit nor cash flow is suitable to measure the value of the company. 2015/16 EPS is estimated at Rmb0.086/0.112, up 21%/30% YoY.
Valuation and recommendation
Initiate with BUY and set TP at HK$3.21 using DCF model, implying the value of 2.84mn users by end-2018 and 15.0x/11.4x 2015/16e P/E. Risks: Water purification service renewal risk; cash flow risk.
Ticker 02014.HK
CICC investment rating * BUY
Last close HK$1.62
CICC target HK$3.21
52wk price range HK$4.70~1.43
Market cap (bn) HK$3
Daily value (mn) HK$10.72
Shares outstanding (mn) 1,744
Free float (%) 50
Daily volume (mn sh) 4.47
Business sector Home Appliances & Electronics
(Rmb mn) 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E
Revenue 402 512 763 1,017
(+/-) 38.6% 27.4% 48.9% 33.4%
Net profit 153 124 150 196
(+/-) 50.0% -19.0% 21.3% 30.0%
EPS 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.11
BPS 0.19 1.09 1.17 1.29
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CPS 0.18 0.22 0.21 0.29
P/E 14.4 18.2 15.0 11.4
P/B 6.6 1.2 1.1 1.0
EV/EBITDA 8.9 7.3 5.4 4.0
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ROAA 14.1% 6.6% 5.5% 5.9%
ROAE 59.4% 11.1% 7.6% 9.1%
Source: Bloomberg, company data, CICC Research
Wei HE Haiyan GUO
SAC Reg. No.: S0080512010001
SFC CE Ref: BBH812
SAC Reg. No.: S0080511080006
SFC CE Ref: AIQ935
46
73
100
127
154
181
Jul-2014 Oct-2014 Jan-2015 Apr-2015 Jul-2015
Rela
tive V
alu
e (
%)
02014.HK HSCEI
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
2
Financial summary Financial statement (Rmb mn) 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E
Income statement
Revenue 402 512 763 1,017
COGS -130 -177 -274 -416
Selling expenses -57 -93 -165 -222
Administrative expenses -45 -99 -142 -136
Other ops income (expense) -7 -14 0 0
Operating profit 185 163 187 248
Finance costs -2 -1 8 6
Other income (expense) 0 0 0 0
Profit before income tax 184 161 195 254
Income tax -31 -37 -45 -58
Minority interest 0 0 0 0
Net profit 153 124 150 196
EBITDA 254 269 375 515
Recurrent net income 153 118 150 196
Balance sheet
Cash and bank balances 154 294 245 178
Trade and bill receivables 100 100 140 143
Inventories 37 90 62 169
Other current assets 67 317 333 351
Total current assets 358 801 781 841
Fixed assets and CIP 817 1,415 1,980 2,528
Intangible assets and others 134 234 229 223
Total non-current assets 951 1,649 2,209 2,751
Total assets 1,310 2,450 2,989 3,592
Short-term borrowings 213 0 0 0
Trade and bill payables 58 129 176 287
Other current liabilities 699 419 761 1,056
Total current liabilities 970 548 936 1,343
Long-term borrowings 0 0 0 0
Total non-current liabilities 7 6 6 6
Total liabilities 976 554 942 1,349
Share capital 0 14 14 14
Retained profit 334 1,882 2,032 2,228
Equity 334 1,896 2,046 2,242
Total liabilities & equity 1,310 2,450 2,989 3,591
Cash flow statement
Pretax profit 153 124 150 196
Depreciation & amortization 69 106 188 267
Change in working capital 70 93 36 38
Others 14 61 0 0
Cash flow from operations 306 384 374 500
Capital expenditure -447 -769 -747 -809
Others -67 -302 324 241
Cash flow from investing -514 -1,071 -423 -568
Equity financing 0 989 0 0
Bank borrowings 197 -215 0 0
Others -4 59 0 0
Cash flow from financing 193 833 0 0
Foreign exchange gain (loss) 0 -6 0 0
Net changes in cash -15 139 -49 -67
Financial ratios 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E
Growth ability
Revenue 38.6% 27.4% 48.9% 33.4%
Operating profit 50.4% -11.9% 14.8% 32.3%
EBITDA 62.8% 5.9% 39.4% 37.2%
Net profit 50.0% -19.0% 21.3% 30.0%
Profitability
Gross margin 67.7% 65.4% 64.0% 59.1%
Operating margin 46.0% 31.8% 24.5% 24.3%
EBITDA margin 63.2% 52.5% 49.2% 50.6%
Net margin 38.1% 24.2% 19.7% 19.2%
Liquidity
Current ratio 0.37 1.46 0.83 0.63
Quick ratio 0.33 1.30 0.77 0.50
Cash ratio 0.16 0.54 0.26 0.13
Liabilities / assets 74.5% 22.6% 31.5% 37.6%
Net debt / equity 17.7% net cash net cash net cash
Return
RoA 14.1% 6.6% 5.5% 5.9%
RoE 59.4% 11.1% 7.6% 9.1%
Per-share data
EPS (Rmb) 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.11
BPS (Rmb) 0.19 1.09 1.17 1.29
DPS (Rmb) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cash flow per share (Rmb) 0.18 0.22 0.21 0.29
Valuation
P/E 14.4 18.2 15.0 11.4
P/B 6.6 1.2 1.1 1.0
EV/EBITDA 8.9 7.3 5.4 4.0
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Company description Ozner Water is a leading company that provides commercial water purification services under a unique leasing model (which is
different from the traditional equipment sales model).The company has competitive advantages both in smart solutions and the
effluent rate, and its lease renewal rate is very high (>97%). Ozner is headquartered in Shanghai Pudong.
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
3
Contents
Company profile ................................................................................................................. 5
Products and services ....................................................................................................... 5
Business structure ............................................................................................................ 7
Household water purification business strategies .................................................................. 8
Ozner’s history and shareholders ........................................................................................ 9
Explosive market growth with the proliferation of new brands ........................................ 10
China’s drinking water situation ........................................................................................ 10
Explosive growth of China’s water purifier market ............................................................... 11
Proliferation of new brands limits the short-term increase of market concentration .................. 12
RO products are the trend for the market .......................................................................... 13
The leasing model for water purifiers ............................................................................... 14
Unique features of water purifiers ..................................................................................... 14
Introduction of the leasing model for water purifiers ............................................................ 14
Competitive strengths of the leasing model ........................................................................ 16
The leasing model constrains the company’s growth rate ..................................................... 17
Sensitivity analysis of Ozner’s earning assets to the depreciation policy ................................. 18
Comparative analysis of Coway, Korea ............................................................................. 19
Company profile ............................................................................................................. 19
Coway’s water purifier leasing business ............................................................................. 20
Financial analysis ............................................................................................................. 22
Revenue breakdown ....................................................................................................... 22
Financial statement analysis ............................................................................................ 24
Valuation by reference to comparable companies ............................................................ 27
DCF model…… ................................................................................................................ 27
User value analysis ......................................................................................................... 28
Comparable valuation ..................................................................................................... 29
Figures
Figure 1: Top 10 companies in China’s water purifier market by sales value to end users ................ 5 Figure 2: Top 10 companies in the commercial water purifier market by sales value to end users..... 5 Figure 3: Ozner’s water purifiers ............................................................................................ 6 Figure 4: Ozner’s water purifiers in airports’ VIP rooms ............................................................. 6 Figure 5: Ozner’s service station ............................................................................................ 6 Figure 6: Quality certifications obtained by Ozner ..................................................................... 7 Figure 7: Ozner’s business structure, 2014 .............................................................................. 7 Figure 8: Revenue structure of water purification business (Rmb mn) .......................................... 7 Figure 9: APP of Ozner’s intelligent cups .................................................................................. 8 Figure 10: Ozner’s intelligent water cups ................................................................................. 8 Figure 11: Ozner smart water purity tester APP ........................................................................ 9 Figure 12: Ozner smart water purity tester .............................................................................. 9 Figure 13: Ozner’s five major shareholders as of December 31, 2014 .......................................... 9 Figure 14: Commercial drinking water consumption structure ................................................... 10
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
4
Figure 15: Household drinking water consumption structure ..................................................... 10 Figure 16: Forecasted growth of China’s household water purifier market (2014~2020) ............... 11 Figure 17: China’s water purifier market structure (by end user) in 2012 ................................... 11 Figure 18: China’s water purifier market structure (by business model), 2012 ............................. 11 Figure 19: Mainstream brands in the water purification market ................................................. 12 Figure 20: Retail sales performance of major water purifier brands in 1Q15 ................................ 12 Figure 21: Water purifier retail sales structure (by channel) in 2014 .......................................... 13 Figure 22: Water purifier retail sales structure (by product), 2014 ............................................. 13 Figure 23: Water purifier rental fees under the leasing model (Retail) (Rmb) .............................. 14 Figure 24: Cash flow structure of Ozner’s first-generation water purifier (EXW) (Rmb) ................. 15 Figure 25: Comparison of costs and services among major competitors ..................................... 16 Figure 26: Number of terminal products (thousand units) ........................................................ 17 Figure 27: Filter replacement’s contribution to water purification business revenue ...................... 17 Figure 28: Estimates for earning assets ................................................................................. 17 Figure 29: Sensitivity analysis of earning assets to the depreciation policy ................................. 18 Figure 30: Coway’s revenue and net profit (US$ mn) .............................................................. 19 Figure 31: Coway’s trend of gross profit margin and net profit margin ....................................... 19 Figure 32: Coway’s revenue structure in 2014 ........................................................................ 19 Figure 33: Korea’s water purifier market landscape in 2013 ...................................................... 19 Figure 34: Coway’s rental revenue from water purifiers (US$ mn) ............................................. 20 Figure 35: The number of Coway’s lessees (thousand) ............................................................ 20 Figure 36: Coway’s renewal rate in 2014 ............................................................................... 20 Figure 37: Coway’s retained customer structure in 2014 .......................................................... 20 Figure 38: CPSI-370N water purifier ..................................................................................... 21 Figure 39: Rental prices of Coway’s CPSI-370N ...................................................................... 21 Figure 40: Revenue breakdown ............................................................................................ 22 Figure 41: Water purification revenue breakdown ................................................................... 22 Figure 42: Air sanitization revenue breakdown ....................................................................... 23 Figure 43: Income statement ............................................................................................... 24 Figure 44: Balance sheet ..................................................................................................... 25 Figure 45: Cash flow statement ............................................................................................ 26 Figure 46: FCFF forecast ..................................................................................................... 27 Figure 47: DCF key assumptions .......................................................................................... 27 Figure 48: DCF analysis ...................................................................................................... 27 Figure 49: User value analysis ............................................................................................. 28 Figure 50: Comparison to comparable companies (2015.07.08) ................................................ 29 Figure 51: Historical P/E and P/B bands ................................................................................. 29
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
5
Company profile
Products and services
Ozner is China’s top water purifier supplier with a share of 5.4% in commercial water purifier market, despite its limited influence in the household market. It also provides a minority of air purification services. Currently, Ozner owns manufacturing bases in Shangyu, Zhejiang Province and Xianyang, Shaanxi Province, producing 370,000 purifiers per year. The Xianyang Phase II project is expected to start production in 4Q15 with designed capacity of 200,000 purifiers per year.
Figure 1: Top 10 companies in China’s water purifier market by sales value to end users
Source: IPO prospectus, Frost & Sullivan report, CICC Research
Figure 2: Top 10 companies in the commercial water purifier market by sales value to end users
Source: IPO prospectus, Frost & Sullivan report, CICC Research
Ranking CompanySales value in 2012
(Rmb mn)
Sales market
share in 2012Business model
1 Midea 935 2% Equipment sales
2 Qingyuan 700 2% Equipment sales
3 Ozner 460 1% Leasing & service
4 Litree 395 1% Equipment sales
5 Angel 375 1% Equipment sales
6 Gemei 320 1% Equipment sales
7 Pentair Ltd 275 1% Equipment sales
8 Ecowater systems Ltd 265 1% Equipment sales
9 A.O.Smith 260 1% Equipment sales
10 Canature 240 1% Equipment sales
Others 38,226 90%
Total 42,451 100%
Ranking CompanySales value in 2012
(Rmb mn)
Sales market
share in 2012Business model
1 Ozner 402 5% Leasing & service
2 Midea 140 2% Equipment sales
3 Qingyuan 105 1% Equipment sales
4 Juxing 100 1% Leasing & service
5 Angel 78 1% Equipment sales
6 Gemei 65 1% Equipment sales
7 Litree 59 1% Equipment sales
8 Aquacup 43 1% Equipment sales
9 Pentair Ltd 41 1% Equipment sales
10 Ecowater systems Ltd 40 1% Equipment sales
Top 10 total 1,073 15%
Others 6,310 85%
Total 7,393 100%
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
6
Ozner’s products are widely used in various commercial premises like airports (such as Shanghai Hongqiao Airport, Pudong Airport, Qingdao Airport and Xi’an Xianyang Airport), railway stations (such as Changsha railway station), retail outlets (Beijing Wangfujing department store, Suning and E-mart), banks (such as BOC, BCM and ABC) and schools. Ozner is one of the drinking water providers for the 2010 World Expo and 2011 World University Games. Ozner also provides drinking water to JSLC (Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center) and purified air to the assembly workshop of “The Moon” aerospace project.
Figure 3: Ozner’s water purifiers
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Figure 4: Ozner’s water purifiers in airports’ VIP
rooms
Figure 5: Ozner’s service station
Source: Baidu.com, CICC Research Source: Baidu.com, CICC Research
Household water purifier
installed above the kitchen sink
Household water purifier
installed under the
kitchen sink
Corporate water purifierCorporate water purifiers
(group version)
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
7
Ozner’s products have been recognized by domestic and foreign certification authorities.
Figure 6: Quality certifications obtained by Ozner
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Business structure
Ozner operates its water purification business under the leasing model. In 2014, second-time service fees as a percentage of the total fees increased to 47.8%.
Figure 7: Ozner’s business structure, 2014
Figure 8: Revenue structure of water purification
business (Rmb mn)
Source: Company data, CICC Research Source: Company data, CICC Research
Switzerland SGS
Water business licence by
Chinese Ministry of Health
CB Certification
CE Certification (EU) RoHS Certification (EU)
USA NSF
80%
20%
Water purification
Air purification 195 305 391
602 783
4
2 8
20
52
116
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011A 2012A 2013 A 2014A 2015E 2016E
Filter replacement Others
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
8
Household water purification business strategies
Ozner will take more positive measures to broaden the household market: 1) building its brand image as a professional water purification company by distributing its products in commercial premises to capture consumers’ attention; 2) enriching its smart product offerings such as intelligent water cups and water purity testers to draw more attention; 3) promoting lump-sum water purifiers. First-time sales will have low GPM, with future revenue coming from filter replacement.
Figure 9: APP of Ozner’s intelligent cups Figure 10: Ozner’s intelligent water cups
Source: Baidu.com, CICC Research Source: Baidu.com, CICC Research
Intelligent cup APP
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
9
Figure 11: Ozner smart water purity tester APP Figure 12: Ozner smart water purity tester
Source: Baidu.com, CICC Research Source: Baidu.com, CICC Research
Ozner’s history and shareholders
The company was found in 2010 and went public on HKEx in June 2014.
Figure 13: Ozner’s five major shareholders as of December 31, 2014
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Shareholders Shares Brief introductions Time Cost/share (HK$)
Baida Holdings Limited 20%
Lion Rise Holdings Limited 3%
Glorious Shine Holdings Limited 3%
SAIF Partners IV L.P. 19% Financial investor, Round A 2010.12 0.36
Ares FW Holdings L.P. 13% Financial investor, Round B 2011.10 1.20
Watercube Holdings L.L.C. (Goldman) 8% Financial investor, Round C 2012.11 1.43
Och-Ziff Capital Management Group L.L.C. 7% IPO conterstone 2014.6 2.70
Total 73%
Founder's trust
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
10
Explosive market growth with the proliferation of new brands
China’s drinking water situation
In China, commercial and household water mainly comprises plain water and bottled water. The penetration of purified drinking water has been increasing quickly to 6.8% in the commercial market and 12.2% in the household market in 2012. The ratios are expected to rise to 28% and 32% in 2017, respectively.
Figure 14: Commercial drinking water consumption structure
Source: IPO prospectus, Frost & Sullivan, CICC Research
Figure 15: Household drinking water consumption structure
Source: IPO prospectus, Frost & Sullivan, CICC Research
70% 67% 63%58%
52%47%
41%
25%27%
28%30%
31%32%
31%
5% 7% 9% 13% 17%22%
28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e
Plain boiled water Barreled drinking water Purified drinking water
63% 61% 59% 56% 53% 49% 45%
12% 14% 15% 16%18%
18%19%
10% 12% 15% 18% 22% 27% 32%
15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 6% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e
Plain boiled water Barreled drinking water
Purified drinking water Others
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
11
Explosive growth of China’s water purifier market
CMM data show the China’s retail water purifier market grew ~69% YoY to Rmb16bn in 2014 and its growth rate will likely remain over 40% in the next six years. Currently, RO is the safest method compared to other water purification technologies like ultrafiltration and softening. Ozner maintains a wastewater rate of 5%, compared to a common rate of ~70% in the industry.
Figure 16: Forecasted growth of China’s household water purifier market
(2014~2020)
Source: CMM, CICC Research
According to Frost & Sullivan, commercial purified water accounted for 17% of China’s water purification market in 2012 and household purified water had a share of 83%. By business model, the leasing and maintenance service model takes up 8%, vs. a share of 92% for lump-sum sales.
Figure 17: China’s water purifier market
structure (by end user) in 2012
Figure 18: China’s water purifier market
structure (by business model), 2012
Source: IPO prospectus, Frost & Sullivan, CICC Research Source: IPO prospectus, Frost & Sullivan, CICC Research
33 54 95
160 240
344
1,280
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2020
Sales (Rmb100mn)
17%
83%
Commercial model
Household model
8%
92%
Leasing & service
Equipment sales
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
12
Proliferation of new brands limits the short-term increase of market
concentration
The water purification market is seeing a proliferation of new brands with various companies entering the market. Currently there are over 3,000 water purifier providers in the market. As a result, the market concentration is unlikely to increase in the short term.
Various players have their own strengths. For example, the leasing model has advantages in the commercial water purification market and Ozner now ranks first with a 5.4% market share.
Figure 19: Mainstream brands in the water purification market
Source: CMM, CICC Research
CMM data show that Midea, Qinyuan, Angel and A.O.Smith are the top four most influential brands in the home appliance chain stores.
Figure 20: Retail sales performance of major water purifier brands in
1Q15
Source: CMM, CICC Research
Membrane manufactruing/
water treatment companies• Qinyuan/Angel/Origin Water/
Canature/Litree
Domestic companies
• Integrated companiesMidea/Haier/Gree
• Solar energy companiesSolareast(Micoe/Sunrain)/Sangle/Himin
Water purifiers
providers
Home appliance
companies
Direct sales companiesAmway/Perfect/Infinitus
Other
models
International companies• A.O.Smith/3M/Pentail/
Ecowater/Unilever
Service companiesOzner/DNC/Coway
Sales market
share
Sales vol.
market share
Midea 25% 26%
Qingyuan 21% 25%
Angel 15% 15%
A.O.Smith 19% 11%
Litree 4% 5%
3M 4% 4%
Haier 2% 3%
Ecowater 2% 2%
Whirlpool 1% 1%
Everpure 1% 1%
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
13
RO products are the trend for the market
Water purifiers are of mixed quality. In July~November 2014, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ) inspected the products of 33 water purifier manufacturers in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Fujian and other areas. The results show that 40% of the inspected companies failed to meet the criteria. In March 2015, the AQSIQ branch in Jiangsu Province initiated a random inspection on 60 batches of water purifiers and it turned out that 60% of the products were substandard, with only 16% of the online products meeting the criteria. Online sales of water purifiers accounted for 15% of total sales with the rest being offline sales in 2014.
Water purifiers can be divided into different types: RO purifiers, ultrafiltration purifiers and activated carbon purifiers. 1) The RO technology has the greatest filter capacity. Because its aperture can be narrowed to 0.1nm, a RO purifier can filter all kinds of harmful materials. Meanwhile RO has its shortcomings as it needs electricity and storage buckets, and generates waste water. 2) Ultrafiltration purifiers have 10~100nm broad apertures, so they can filter most harmful materials while retaining mineral substances. This method needs no electricity and generates no wastewater. 3) Activated carbon purifiers can absorb all kinds of materials other than heavy metals.
Although RO purifiers do not have advantages in pricing and user friendliness, their market share continues to grow because of its unique safety feature. RO purifiers now take up 55% of the whole market and their market share will continue to increase, driving up their market prices. The unit price of water purifiers was Rmb2,847 in 1Q15, up 62.6% from Rmb1,751 in 2010. Among all types of purifiers, RO water purifiers are the most expensive with a unit price of Rmb3,293.
Figure 21: Water purifier retail sales structure
(by channel) in 2014
Figure 22: Water purifier retail sales structure
(by product), 2014
Source: AVC, CICC Research Source: AVC, CICC Research
85%
15%
Online
Offline 55%
22%
23%
Reverseosmosis
Ultrafiltration
Activatedcarbon
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
14
The leasing model for water purifiers
Unique features of water purifiers
Unlike other electric appliances, water purifiers can generate service need and service revenue in the future because they need regular replacement of filter elements.
This determines that: 1) high-end brands will become the major beneficiaries in the future; 2) retaining customers with better services will bring long-term profit, making the leasing of water purifiers a feasible business model; 3) Ozner has its competitive advantages in influencing customers’ choice and gaining their trust gradually.
Introduction of the leasing model for water purifiers
Ozner has an advantageous leasing model in the whole market, under which the rental fees are the highest in the first year and start to drop from the second year. The accumulated rental revenue in the first two years can cover the cash cost of the leased purifiers.
In addition, Ozner adopts a “distributors + direct sales” model:
1) Distributors are responsible for client relationship maintenance, which is adaptive to China’s complicated business environment.
2) Ozner’s after-sales customer service team is responsible for purifier installation and regular replacement of filter elements. The service team has over 1,000 employees and covers 150 cities.
The below figure shows the range of water purifier rental fees:
Figure 23: Water purifier rental fees under the leasing model (Retail) (Rmb)
Source: IPO prospectus, CICC Research
First year Subsequent years First year Subsequent years
Corporate models
Center models 5,180 2,880 6,280~7,880 3,680~4,680
Other corporate models 1,010~2,380 400~1,090 1,160~3,280 1,160~1,480
Household models 1,010~1,280 400~580 1,260~1,750 860~1,380
Sales price for distributor Retailing price
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
15
According to the prices set by Ozner, the first year’s rental revenue can cover most of its cash cost and in the third year, the accumulated revenue will surpass its cash expenditure. The figure below shows Ozner’s cash flow structure taking its first-generation water purifier as an example.
Figure 24: Cash flow structure of Ozner’s first-generation water purifier (EXW) (Rmb)
Source: Company data, CICC Research
-1,660
1,145
450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
Manufacturing
cost
Yr.1 Yr.2 Yr.3 Yr.4 Yr.5 Yr.6 Yr.7 Yr.8 Yr.9 Yr.10
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
16
Competitive strengths of the leasing model
The leasing model has advantages in the commercial water purifier market: 1) cost advantage: its comprehensive cost is lower than the lump-sum sales model of bottled water or water purifiers; 2) easier buying decision to make: the leasing model makes it easier for first-line managers to make buying decisions.
The first-year rental fees for Ozner’s household water purifiers range between Rmb1,260~1,750, very attractive compared with the average retail price of Rmb3,293 for RO water purifiers in 1Q15. According to Frost & Sullivan, Ozner’s leasing service model has advantages over its competitors’ sales business model.
Figure 25: Comparison of costs and services among major competitors
Source: IPO prospectus, Frost & Sullivan, CICC Research
Rmb Ozner Manufacturer A Manufacturer B Manufacturer C
Initial costs
Corporate models 2,500 10,000 5,500 6,988
Household models 1,680 2,996 2,200 3,588
Subsequent costs
Corporate models 2,300 620 2,750 3,200
Household models 680 600 1,000 1,200
Total costs in 5 years
Corporate models 11,700 12,480 16,500 19,788
Household models 4,400 5,396 6,200 8,388
Total costs in 10 years
Corporate models 23,200 15,580 30,250 35,788
Household models 7,800 8,396 11,200 14,388
Home repair costs No additional feesService charge after one
year warranty period
Service charge after the
warranty period (filter's
warranty period of three
months, the major parts
of 2 years)
Service charge after
one year warranty
period
Periodic inspections Yes No No No
Maintenance response time <24h No promise No promise No promise
Water purification technology
Multiple purification and
reverse osmosis
technology
Multiple purification and
reverse osmosis
technology
Activated carbon
composite technology
Multiple purification
and reverse osmosis
technology
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
17
The leasing model constrains the company’s growth rate
The leasing model tends to limit Ozner’s cash flow, keeping the company from achieving a higher growth rate than the industry level. In the long run, however, a much stronger growth trend could be established after enough customers are acquired to improve cash flow.
Figure 26: Number of terminal products
(thousand units)
Figure 27: Filter replacement’s contribution to
water purification business revenue
Source: Company data, CICC Research Source: Company data, CICC Research
Ozner recognizes its leased water purifiers as earning assets in the accounting system. The leasing model will lead to substantial growth in earning assets in the accounting system.
Figure 28: Estimates for earning assets
Source: IPO prospectus, CICC Research
107
309
463
657
937
1,368
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
0%
17%
42%48%
40%43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2011A 2012A 2013 A 2014A 2015E 2016E
Filter replacement fees YoY
(Rmb mn) 2011A 2012A 2013 A 2014A 2015E 2016E
Oringinal book value 154 416 672 1,113 1,620
Earning assets 154 206 256 441 507 659
Losses from disposal of earning assets 0 0
Acquisition of subsidiaries 57
Incremental depreciation 6 26 54 85 134 194
Cumulative depreciation 6 32 86 171 306 500
Balance of book value 148 384 585 942 1,314 1,779
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
18
Sensitivity analysis of Ozner’s earning assets to the depreciation
policy
Ozner uses a 10-year depreciation & amortization policy for earning assets. Based on an conservative sensitivity analysis, if the depreciation period is shortened to 9/8/7/6 years, its 2015e EPS will fall 6%/16%/29%/46% respectively.
Discussion on depreciation policy: 1) Water purifiers need to be installed, so their transfer cost is high and a large portion of customers tend to renew their leases upon expiry. Historically, more than 97% of Ozner’s customers, which mainly consist of commercial accounts, renewed their leases, but the long-term trend is yet to be validated. 2) If customers decide not to renew their leases, distributors are responsible for finding the next lessees for the taken-back products. This effectively mitigates the financial risk Ozner faces when the renewal rate declines. 3) Coway, a similar water purifier provider in Korea, adopts a 5-year depreciation policy for its water purifiers. According to Coway’s experience, the renewal rate after five years is about 76%. 4) Chaoyue Group Limited (“CGL”) (0147.HK) also operates under a similar leasing model in 2009~2012 and the company changed the service life of its purifiers from nine years to five years in 2010 after an assessment.
If the company provides quality services, it will be able to establish a long-term relationship with users: 1) Water purifier is a necessity in the future. Users tend to select companies with the best services. 2) Ozner offers free transfer services for its leased products, which enables continuous services even in case of a change of address.
We think it is reasonable to give leased water purifiers a depreciation period of 6~10 years. The table below shows our sensitivity analysis of how different depreciation policies affect profit.
Figure 29: Sensitivity analysis of earning assets to the depreciation policy
Source: CICC Research
2011A 2012A 2013 A 2014A 2015E 2016E
9-year depreciation policy 2 1 3 8 8 10
8-year depreciation policy 3 3 9 18 24 31
7-year depreciation policy 4 7 17 31 43 60
6-year depreciation policy 6 12 27 48 70 97
9-year depreciation policy 9% 1% 2% 7% 6% 5%
8-year depreciation policy 13% 3% 6% 15% 16% 16%
7-year depreciation policy 18% 7% 11% 25% 29% 30%
6-year depreciation policy 24% 12% 18% 39% 46% 50%
Profit decline
(Rmb mn)
Profit decline
(%)
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
19
Comparative analysis of Coway, Korea
Coway is the No. 1 brand in water purifier leasing in the Korean market, which proves the leasing mode of water purifiers is very likely to be successfully promoted in the Chinese market.
Company profile
Coway (021240.KS) is the top brand in Korea’s environmental household appliance market. In 2014, Coway recorded revenue of US$2,053mn and net profit of US$237mn.
Figure 30: Coway’s revenue and net profit
(US$ mn)
Figure 31: Coway’s trend of gross profit margin
and net profit margin
Source: Company data, CICC Research Source: Company data, CICC Research
Coway operates ~92% of its business in Korea. Its core business is to offer leasing services of water purifiers and air purifiers, with a minority of direct sales business. About 1/3 of the Korea population are using Coway’s water purifiers and 1/4 are using its air purifiers. In 2013, Coway took up 45% of Korea’s water purifier market, far ahead of other players. Although Coway has entered China’s market, its influence is not strong enough to support the adoption of the leasing model.
Figure 32: Coway’s revenue structure in 2014
Figure 33: Korea’s water purifier market landscape
in 2013
Source: Company data, CICC Research Source: Company data, CICC Research
1,648 1,770
1,936 2,053
151 84 224 237
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2011 2012 2013 2014
Revenue Net profit
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2011 2012 2013 2014
NPM GPM
43%
11%
23%
19%
4% Rentals-
Water purifiers
Rentals-Air
purifiers
Rentals-
Others
Direct sales
Other revenue
45%
11%
8%
36%
Coway
Chungho Nais
DongyangMagic
Others
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
20
Coway’s water purifier leasing business
In 2013, Coway generated revenue of US$819mn from its leasing business. The number of its customers was 3.02mn.
Figure 34: Coway’s rental revenue from water
purifiers (US$ mn)
Figure 35: The number of Coway’s lessees
(thousand)
Source: Company data, CICC Research Source: Company data, CICC Research
Coway’s total fees consist of rental fees and management fees (which cover the services of machine cleaning and regular replacement of filter elements). The contract generally lasts 3~5 years. After five years of leasing, the machine’s ownership will be transferred to the customer, but the customer still need to pay management fees for regular maintenance. Coway adopts a 5-year depreciation policy. During the contract period, costumers need to pay a deposit ranging from zero to KRW100,000. The amount of deposit will influence the later rental fees. If the customer terminates the contract before its expiry, it will cost him or her 10% of the deposit as the penalty.
Figure 36: Coway’s renewal rate in 2014
Figure 37: Coway’s retained customer structure in
2014
Source: Company data, CICC Research Source: Company data, CICC Research
754 771
819
885
650
700
750
800
850
900
2011 2012 2013 2014
Rental revenue: water purifying machines
2,911
2,986
3,018
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
2011 2012 2013
Number of lessees
76%
24%
Contract
extension
Contracttermination
39%
37%
24%Contract
renewal
Membership
Ownership
transfer
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
21
Figure 38: CPSI-370N water purifier Figure 39: Rental prices of Coway’s CPSI-370N
Source: Baidu.com, CICC Research Source: Company data, CICC Research
KRW Rmb KRW Rmb
0 0 56,000 311
50,000 278 54,500 303
100,000 556 53,000 294
KRW Rmb
26,900 149
32,500 181
38,500 214121 months and beyond
Deposits Rental fees/month
Management fees/month
Months after installation
0~96 months
97~120 months
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
22
Financial analysis
Revenue breakdown
Figure 40: Revenue breakdown
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Figure 41: Water purification revenue breakdown
Note: We assume the original renewal rate is 98%, and then add both leased and lump-sum water purifiers. Source: Company data, CICC Research
(Rmb mn) Ref. 2011A 2012A 2013 A 2014A 2015E 2016E
Revenue 102 290 402 512 763 1,017
Water purification business A 57 198 314 411 655 899
Air sanitisation business B 45 93 88 100 108 118
Revenue YoY 185% 38% 27% 49% 33%
Water purification business YoY 247% 59% 31% 59% 37%
Air sanitisation business YoY 106% -5% 14% 7% 9%
Cost 44 103 130 177 274 416
Water purification business 10 39 67 107 198 333
Air sanitisation business 34 64 63 70 77 84
Gross profit margin 57.0% 64.4% 67.7% 65.4% 64.0% 59.1%
Water purification business 82.5% 80.3% 78.7% 74.1% 69.8% 63.0%
Air sanitisation business 24.7% 30.5% 28.9% 29.9% 29.0% 29.0%
(Rmb mn) Ref. 2011A 2012A 2013 A 2014A 2015E 2016E
Revenue from water purification
businessA 57 198 314 411 655 899
Training service income 3 1 8 19 19 19
Purifiers income 1 1 0 1 1 1
Rental income C 53 195 305 391 602 783
Lump-sum income D 32 96
Contractual selling in the current FY 125 244 342 475 605 831
Rental income confirmed next FY -72 -120 -157 -241 -244 -292
Rental income confirmed in the current FY 53 124 185 234 361 539
Rental income last FY 0 72 120 157 241 244
Rental income in current FY C 53 195 305 391 602 783
Number of newly added rental
equipment (sets)107,000 139,000 154,000 195,000 253,500 329,550
Number of newly added equipment YoY 30% 11% 27% 30% 30%
ASP for new products (Rmb/set) 1,437 1,481 1,660 2,262 2,000 2,000
Number of newly added lump-sum
equipment (sets)40,000 120,000
Number of newly added equipment YoY 200%
ASP (Rmb/set) 800 800
Revenue (Rmb mn) D 32 96
Cumulative end machines in the end of
period (sets)107,000 309,000 463,000 657,000 937,360 1,368,163
ASPf or filters (Rmb/set) 329 333 350 367
Contractual selling in the current FY
(Rmb mn)125 244 342 475 605 831
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
23
Figure 42: Air sanitization revenue breakdown
Source: Company data, CICC Research
(Rmb mn) Ref. 2011A 2012A 2013 A 2014A 2015E 2016E
Revenue form air sanitisation business B 45 93 88 101 108 118
Total revenue confirmed this FY 37 81 80 93 100 110
Revenue confirmed from EPC contract
Contractual selling signed in the current FY 67 88 92 96 106 116
Revenue confirmed in the next FY -30 -38 -50 -53 -58 -64
Revenue confirmed by contracts signed in the current FY 37 51 42 43 48 52
Revenue confirmed by contracts signed last FY 0 30 38 50 53 58
Equipment selling 8 8 6 2 2 2
Consulting income 0 4 2 5 5 5
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
24
Financial statement analysis
Figure 43: Income statement
Source: Company data, CICC Research
(Rmb mn) 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 1H2013 2H2013 1H2014 2H2014
Revenue 102 290 402 512 763 1,017 179 223 232 280
Cost of Sales -44 -103 -130 -177 -274 -416 -58 -72 -74 -103
Gross Profit 58 187 273 335 488 601 121 152 158 177
Other Income 5 2 21 34 5 5 10 11 7 27
Research and development costs - -
Selling and distribution costs -19 -38 -57 -93 -165 -222 -27 -30 -33 -60
Administrative expenses -13 -21 -45 -99 -142 -136 -14 -31 -44 -55
Other Operation expenses -2 -7 -7 -14 -3 -4 -5 -9
Share of results of jointly controlled entities - -
Operating Profit 29 123 185 163 187 248 87 98 83 80
Finance costs - -2 -1 8 6 -2 -1 -
Profit Before Taxation 29 124 184 161 195 254 86 98 82 79
Taxation -6 -22 -31 -37 -45 -58 -12 -19 -15 -22
Porfit from a discontinued operation - -
Profit for the year 23 102 153 124 150 196 74 79 67 57
Minority Interest - - - -
Equity holders of the parent 23 102 153 124 150 196 74 79 67 57
Recurrent Net Profit 23 102 153 118 150 196 74 79 67 51
RevenueYoY 184.3% 38.6% 27.4% 48.9% 33.4% 29.6% 25.6%
Gross Profit YoY 222.4% 46.0% 22.7% 45.8% 23.1% 30.6% 16.4%
Gross Margin 56.9% 64.5% 67.9% 65.4% 64.0% 59.1% 67.6% 68.2% 68.1% 63.2%
S&D YoY 100.0% 50.0% 63.2% 76.9% 35.1% 22.2% 100.0%
S&D % of Turnover 18.6% 13.1% 14.2% 18.2% 21.6% 21.9% 15.1% 13.5% 14.2% 21.4%
G&A YoY 61.5% 114.3% 120.0% 43.1% -4.0% 214.3% 77.4%
G&A Y% of Turnover 12.7% 7.2% 11.2% 19.3% 18.6% 13.4% 7.8% 13.9% 19.0% 19.6%
Operating Profit YoY 324.1% 50.4% -11.9% 14.8% 32.3% -4.6% -18.4%
Operating Margin 28.4% 42.4% 46.0% 31.8% 24.5% 24.3% 48.6% 43.9% 35.8% 28.6%
Finance costs% of Turnover 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% -1.1% -0.6% 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Profit Before Taxation YoY 327.6% 48.4% -12.5% 21.3% 30.0% -4.7% -19.4%
EBT Margin 28.4% 42.8% 45.8% 31.4% 25.6% 25.0% 48.0% 43.9% 35.3% 28.2%
Effective Tax Rate 20.7% 17.7% 16.8% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 14.0% 19.4% 18.3% 27.8%
Minority Interest % of profit for the year 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Equity holders of the parent YoY 343.5% 50.0% -19.0% 21.3% 30.0% -9.5% -27.8%
Net Margin 22.5% 35.2% 38.1% 24.2% 19.7% 19.2% 41.3% 35.4% 28.9% 20.4%
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
25
Figure 44: Balance sheet
Source: Company data, CICC Research
(Rmb mn) 2011A 2012A 2013 A 2014A 2015E 2016E
Cash and cash equivalents 170 169 154 294 245 178
Held for trading financial assets 300 300 300
Total receivables 77 88 100 100 140 143
Account and bills receivables 11 38 51 44 83 86
Other receivables 67 51 49 57 57 57
Inventories 30 39 37 90 62 169
Other current asset 67 16 33 51
Total current asset 277 296 358 801 781 841
Net fixed asset 172 471 817 1,415 1,980 2,528
Earning assets concerned 148 384 585 942 1,314 1,779
Common assets concerned 24 87 232 473 666 749
Equity investment 0 0
Available for sale investment 0 0
Goodwill and intangible asset 1 70 95 94 89 85
Goodwill 1 26 26 26
Land 76 74 73
Other non-current asset 10 25 39 65 65 65
Total non-current asset 183 566 951 1,649 2,209 2,751
Total asset 460 863 1,310 2,450 2,989 3,592
Account and bills payables 43 37 58 129 176 287
Tax payables 10 34 64 102 121 175
Short term borrowing 213 0 0
Other current liabilities 384 604 635 316 640 881
Total current liabilities 437 675 970 548 936 1,343
Long term borrowing 0
Other non-current liabilities 7 7 6 6 6
Total non-current liabilities 7 7 6 6 6
Total liabilities 437 682 976 554 942 1,349
Prefered shares
Ordinary shares 14 14 14
Reserves 23 181 334 1,888 2,038 2,234
Other comprehensive income -6 -6 -6
Common equity 23 181 334 1,896 2,046 2,242
Equity attributable to parent company shareholdes 23 181 334 1,896 2,046 2,242
Minority equity 0 0
Total equity 23 181 334 1,896 2,046 2,242
Total liabilities and equity 460 863 1,310 2,450 2,989 3,591
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
26
Figure 45: Cash flow statement
Source: Company data, CICC Research
(Rmb mn) 2011A 2012A 2013 A 2014A 2015E 2016E
Net income 23 102 153 124 150 196
Depreciation and amortization 7 33 69 106 188 267
Earning assets concerned 6 26 54 85 134 194
Common assets concerned 1 7 15 21 54 73
Change of working capital 42 -6 70 93 36 38
Other non cash adjustment -4 22 15 61 0 0
Net cash flow from operating activities 68 150 306 384 374 500
Capex 185 284 447 769 747 809
Earning assets concerned 153 201 245 420 507 659
Common assets concerned 32 83 202 349 240 150
Cash received from sales of fixed asset 0
Addition of investment
Decrease of investment
Other cash flows from investment activities -5 1 -67 -302 324 241
Net cash flow from investment activities -190 -284 -514 -1,071 -423 -568
Addition of debt 280 192 215 0 0
Decrease of debt 60 18 215
Addition of common shares 989 0 0
Decrease of common shares
Dividends paid 0 0
Other cash flows from financing activities 0 -4 59 0 0
Net cash flows from financing activities 280 132 193 833 0 0
Impact of exchange rate change 0 0 0 -6
Other adjustment
Net cash change 159 -1 -15 139 -49 -67
Cash at the beginning 12 170 169 154 294 245
Cash at the end 170 169 154 294 245 178
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
27
Valuation by reference to comparable companies
According to the DCF model, we set TP at HK$3.21, implying the value of 2.84mn users by end-2018 and 15.0x/11.4x 2015/16e P/E.
Because the leasing model of water purifiers is not easy to understand, Ozner was shorted by Glaucus Research in March 2015. The doubt came from the difficulty to understand the leasing model, the lack of online sales records and the unreasonable depreciation policy adopted for earning assets. Later, Ozner disclosed more information to address this doubt.
DCF model
The company will be in an expansion period over the next six years; cumulative annual growth rate of the user base will be over 40%. During this period, neither net income nor cash flow is suitable to measure its value.
Figure 46: FCFF forecast
Source: CICC Research
Figure 47: DCF key assumptions Figure 48: DCF analysis
Source: CICC Research Source: CICC Research
Free cashflow forecast (Rmb mn) 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Net Revenue 763 1,017 1,395 1,939 2,695 3,663 4,859 6,131 7,596 9,254
YoY 48.9% 33.4% 37.2% 39.0% 39.0% 35.9% 32.6% 26.2% 23.9% 21.8%
EBIT 195 254 375 550 758 1,081 1,535 2,004 2,561 3,244
YoY 48.9% 30.0% 47.6% 46.9% 37.7% 42.6% 42.0% 30.5% 27.8% 26.7%
EBIT Margin 25.6% 25.0% 26.9% 28.4% 28.1% 29.5% 31.6% 32.7% 33.7% 35.1%
+ Depreciation and Amortization 188 267 349 447 567 708 871 1,058 1,235 1,421
EBITDA 383 521 723 998 1,325 1,789 2,406 3,062 3,796 4,665
- Change in working capital 36 38 98 73 125 92 133 105 118 75
- Capex 747 809 971 1,165 1,398 1,621 1,879 2,180 2,529 2,936
- Tax 45 58 94 138 190 270 384 501 640 811
Free Cash Flows -445 -384 -440 -378 -388 -194 10 276 508 843
YoY -13.5% 14.4% -14.0% 2.6% -50.0% -105.1% 2671.4% 84.5% 65.9%
DCF assumptions
Tax rate 25.0%
Debt ratio 31.5%
Beta 1.30
Risk free rate 2.5%
Risk premium 6.5%
Equity cost 11.0%
Debt cost 6.0%
Debt cost (After tax) 4.5%
WACC 8.9%
Perpetual Growth 2.0%
DCF Analysis
PV of FCF -1,058
Terminal value 12,436
PV of terminal value 5,293
Enterprise Value 4,236
Net Cash/(Debt), Minority interests 245
Equity Value 4,480
Equity value per share (HK$) 3.21
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
28
User value analysis
Assuming the profit contributed per user within a life cycle of 10 years is ~Rmb1,576/set (after an annual discount of 5%), our TP (HK$3.21) implies the value of 2.84mn users by end-2018.
Figure 49: User value analysis
Source: CICC Research
Rmb/set Yr. 1 Yr. 2 Yr. 3 Yr. 4 Yr. 5 Yr. 6 Yr. 7 Yr. 8 Yr. 9 Yr. 10
EXW prices 1,145 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450
Average manufacturing cost 1,660
Period cost 300
Filter cost 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Labor cost (filter change) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Net cash inflow -815 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 380
Net cash inflow (after discount) -815 361 343 326 310 294 279 265 252 239
After-tax profit 1,576
2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Accumulated users (k units) 937 1,368 1,976 2,843 4,047 5,589 7,399 9,432 11,819 14,539
User Value (Rmb mn) 1,478 2,157 3,115 4,482 6,380 8,810 11,664 14,868 18,631 22,919
CICC Research: July 9, 2015
Regulation AC certifications and important disclosures are located at the end of this research report
29
Comparable valuation
Due to its different sales model and financial treatment, the company does not have a strong comparability to other water purification companies; still, we make a list of similar businesses just for reference purposes.
Figure 50: Comparison to comparable companies (2015.07.08)
Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research
1) Companies with strong comparability: Coway is the most comparable company with the most similar water purifier leasing model.
2) Companies with mediocre comparability: Canature (300272.SZ) sells and exports whole house water treatment products, a different business model from the one adopted by Ozner. Originwater (300070.SZ) provides water purifiers but its main business is sewage disposal. Sunrain Solar (603366.SH) and A.O.Smith mainly provide water heaters and have diversified their business into water purifiers.
3) Companies with little comparability: Gree (000651.SZ) and Media (000333.SZ) are leading players in the water purifier market, but generate only a small portion of their revenue from this business. Haier (0348.HK) will focus on the development of its own water purifiers and baby appliance business. The trend has not been reflected in its current financial statements.
Figure 51: Historical P/E and P/B bands
Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research
P/S P/B
2014A 2015E 2016E 2014A 2014A
021240.KS CowayMost
comparable62 25.9 22.1 19.6 3.3 6.8
603366.SH Sunrain Solar 12 21.4 22.1 18.0 2.5 2.1
300272.SZ Canature 8 56.4 61.3 50.4 12.5 6.1
300070.SZ Originwater 63 34.9 25.2 18.2 11.6 6.1
AOS US A.O Smith 63 28.8 25.0 21.7 2.7 4.5
000333.SZ Midea Group 213 12.6 10.3 8.6 0.9 4.0
000651.SZ Gree Electrics 190 8.4 7.0 5.8 0.9 2.6
348.HK Haier Healthwise 3 N.A. N.A. N.A. 28.6 9.8
Weighted average 26.9 24.7 20.3 7.9 5.2
2014.HK Ozner Water 4 18.2 15.0 11.4 5.5 1.2
P/ETickers Companies
Revelance &
terms
Market Cap.
(US$100mn)
Revelant
Little
comparability
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
14/0
7
14/0
8
14/0
9
14/1
0
14/1
1
14/1
2
15/0
1
15/0
2
15/0
3
15/0
4
15/0
5
15/0
6
15/0
7
PE BandOzner Water 10x 15x 20x 25x
Rmb
01122334455
14/0
7
14/0
8
14/0
9
14/1
0
14/1
1
14/1
2
15/0
1
15/0
2
15/0
3
15/0
4
15/0
5
15/0
6
15/0
7
PB BandOzner Water 1x 1.5x 2x 2.5x
Rmb
CICC Research
Important legal disclosures
General Disclosures This report has been produced by China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited (CICCHKS). This report is based on information available to the public that we consider
reliable, but CICCHKS and its associated company(ies)(collectively, hereinafter “CICC”) do not represent that it is accurate or complete. The information and opinions contained herein are for
investors’ reference only and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any client, and are not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer
to buy or sell the securities mentioned. Under no circumstances shall the information contained herein or the opinions expressed herein constitute a personal recommendation to anyone.
Investors should make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this research report, consider their own individual investment objectives, financial situation and
particular needs and consult their own professional and financial advisers as to the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects before participating in any transaction in respect of the
securities of company(ies) covered in this report. Neither CICC nor its related persons shall be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences of any reliance thereon or usage thereof.
The performance information (including any expression of opinion or forecast) herein reflect the most up-to-date opinions, speculations and forecasts at the time of the report’s production and
publication. Such opinions, speculations and forecasts are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
At different periods, CICC may release reports which are inconsistent with the opinions, speculations and forecasts contained herein.
CICC’s salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading ideas that may be inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the
recommendations and opinions presented in this report. Such ideas or recommendations reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the persons who prepared them, and
CICC is under no obligation to ensure that such other trading ideas or recommendations are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. CICC’s asset management area, proprietary
trading desks and other investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or opinions expressed in this report.
This report is distributed in Hong Kong by CICCHKS, which is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. Queries concerning CICC Research from readers in Hong Kong should be
directed to our Hong Kong sales representatives. The CE numbers of SFC licensed authors of this report are disclosed by the authors’ names on the cover page.
This report is distributed in Singapore only to accredited investors and/or institutional investors, as defined in the Securities and Futures Act and Financial Adviser Act of Singapore, by China
International Capital Corporation (Singapore) Pte. Limited (“CICCSG”), which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. By virtue of distribution by CICCSG to these categories of
investors in Singapore, disclosure under Section 36 of the Financial Adviser Act (which relates to disclosure of a financial adviser’s interest and/or its representative’s interest in securities) is not
required. Recipients of this report in Singapore should contact CICCSG in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with this report. This report is not intended for and should not be
distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in the jurisdiction of Singapore.
This report is distributed in the United Kingdom by China International Capital Corporation (UK) Limited (“CICCUK”), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The
investments and services to which this report relates are only available to persons of a kind described in Article 19 (5), 38, 47 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial
Promotion) Order 2005. This report is not intended for retail clients. In other EEA countries, the report is issued to persons regarded as professional investors (or equivalent) in their home
jurisdiction.
This report will be made available in other jurisdictions pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations in those particular jurisdictions.
Special Disclosures CICC may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies.
Investors should be aware that CICC and/or its associated persons may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not solely reply on the opinions
contained in this research report when making any investment decision or other decisions.
Distribution of ratings is available at http://www.cicc.com.cn/CICC/english/operation/page4-4.htm.
Explanation of stock ratings: “Conviction BUY” indicates analyst perceives absolute return of 30% or more over the next 6~12 months; “BUY” absolute return of 20% or more; “HOLD” between
+20% and -10%; “SELL” -10% and below; “Conviction SELL” -20% and below. Asterisk denotes non-directional rating change: coverage initiation or resumption, addition to or removal from
Conviction BUY/SELL rating level.
Explanation of sector ratings: Analyst expects a sector rated “OVERWEIGHT” to outperform the market by 10% or more over the next 6~12 months, “EQUAL-WEIGHT” to end up between 10%
below and 10% above the market, and “UNDERWEIGHT” to fall behind the market by 10% or more, over the next 6~12 months.
Copyright of this report belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation is prohibited without CICC’s written
permission.
US Regulatory Disclosures
Analyst Certification The analysts who prepared the research contained herein hereby certify pursuant to Regulation AC of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") that: (i) the views expressed
in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the
specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosure This report has been produced in its entirety by China International Capital Corporation Limited (Registration number: Y00111000, regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission)
and China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited (hereinafter "CICC") (CE number: AEN894, regulated by Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong). This
report is being distributed in the United States by CICC pursuant to Rule 15a-6(a)(2) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to major U.S. institutional investors as defined
in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action letters thereunder. Note that due to U.S. regulatory requirements, the distribution of the attached report may not be contemporaneous with that of other
jurisdictions.
V150602
Editing: Wanbo ZHOU
Beijing Jianguomenwai Avenue Branch Beijing Kexueyuan South Road Branch Shanghai Middle Huaihai Road Branch
1st Floor, Capital Tower
6A Jianguomenwai Avenue
Beijing 100022, P.R. China
Tel: (86-10) 8567-9238
Fax: (86-10) 8567-9235
6th Floor, Block A, Raycom Infotech Park
2 Kexueyuan South Road, Haidian District
Beijing 100022, P.R. China
Tel: (86-10) 8286-1086
Fax: (86-10) 8286 1106
398 Huaihai Road (M)
Shanghai 200020, P.R. China
Tel: (86-21) 6386-1195
Fax: (86-21) 6386-1180
Shanghai Defeng Road Branch Shenzhen Fuhuayilu Branch Hangzhou Jiaogong Road Branch
Room 1105, Building A
299-1 Defeng Road, Fengxian District
Shanghai 201400, P.R. China
Tel: (86-21) 5879-6226
Fax: (86-21) 6887-5123
Room 201, Annex Building
Shenzhen Duty Free Commercial Tower
6 Fuhua 1st Road, Futian District
Shenzhen 518048, P.R. China
Tel: (86-755) 8832-2388
Fax: (86-755) 8254-8243
1st Floor, Euro American Center
18 Jiaogong Road
Hangzhou 310012, P.R. China
Tel: (86-571) 8849-8000
Fax: (86-571) 8735-7743
Nanjing Hanzhong Road Branch Guangzhou Tianhe Road Branch Chengdu Binjiang Road (East) Branch
Section C, 30th Floor, Asia Pacific Tower
2 Hanzhong Road, Gulou District
Nanjing 210005, P.R. China
Tel: (86-25) 8316-8988
Fax: (86-25) 8316-8397
40th Floor, Teemtower
208 Tianhe Road
Guangzhou 510620, P.R. China
Tel: (86-20) 8396-3968
Fax: (86-20) 8516-8198
1st & 16th Floors, Shangri-La Center
Block 9B, Binjiang Road (East)
Chengdu 610021, P.R. China
Tel: (86-28) 8612-8188
Fax: (86-28) 8444-7010
Xiamen Lianyue Road Branch Wuhan Zhongnan Road Branch Qingdao Middle Hongkong Road Branch
4th Floor, Office Building, Paragon Center
1 Lianyue Road, Siming District
Xiamen 361012, P.R. China
Tel: (86-592) 515-7000
Fax: (86-592) 511-5527
4301-B, Poly Plaza
99 Zhongnan Road, Wuchang District
Wuhan 430070, P.R. China
Tel: (86-27) 8334-3099
Fax: (86-27) 8359-0535
11th Floor, Shangri-La Center
Block 9, Hongkong Road (M), South District
Qingdao 266071, P.R. China
Tel: (86-532) 6670-6789
Fax: (86-532) 6887-7018
Chongqing Honghu Road (West) Branch Tianjin Nanjing Road Branch Dalian Gangxing Road Branch
1st & 10th Floors, Ourui Lanjue Center
Block 9, Honghu Road (W), New North District
Chongqing 401120, P.R. China
Tel: (86-23) 6307-7088
Fax: (86-23) 6739-6636
10th Floor, Tianjin Global Trading Center
219 Nanjing Road, Heping District
Tianjin 300051, P.R. China
Tel: (86-22) 2317-6188
Fax: (86-22) 2321-5079
16th Floor, Wanda Center
6 Gangxing Road, Zhongshan District
Dalian 116001, P.R. China
Tel: (86-411) 8237-2388
Fax: (86-411) 8814-2933
Foshan Jihua 5th Road Branch Yunfu Xinxing Dongdi North Road Branch Changsha Chezhan Road (North) Branch
12th Floor, Trend International Business Building
2 Jihua 5th Road, Chancheng District
Foshan 528000, P.R. China
Tel: (86-757) 8290-3588
Fax: (86-757) 8303-6299
2nd Floor, Service Building C1, Wens Science &
Technology Garden, Dongdi North Road
Xincheng Town, Xinxing County
Yunfu 527499, P.R. China
Tel: (86-766) 2985-088
Fax: (86-766) 2985-018
3rd Floor, Annex Building, Securities Tower
459 Chezhan Road (North), Furong District
Changsha 410001, P.R. China
Tel: (86-731) 8878-7088
Fax: (86-731) 8446-2455
Ningbo Yangfan Road Branch Fuzhou Wusi Road Branch
11th Floor, Building Five, 999 Yangfan Road
Hi-tech Industrial Development Zone
Ningbo 315103, P.R. China
Tel: (86-574) 8907-7288
Fax: (86-574) 8907-7328
38th Floor, Henglicheng Office Building
No.128 Wusi Road, Gulou District
Fuzhou 350001, P.R. China
Tel: (86-591) 8625 3088
Fax: (86-591) 8625 3050
Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong China International Capital
Corporation Limited
28th Floor, China World Office 2
1 Jianguomenwai Avenue
Beijing 100004, P.R. China
Tel: (86-10) 6505-1166
Fax: (86-10) 6505-1156
China International Capital
Corporation Limited – Shanghai Branch
32nd Floor Azia Center
1233 Lujiazui Ring Road
Shanghai 200120, P.R. China
Tel: (86-21) 5879-6226
Fax: (86-21) 5888-8976
China International Capital
Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited
29th Floor, One International Finance Centre
1 Harbour View Street
Central, Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 2872-2000
Fax: (852) 2872-2100
Singapore United Kingdom China International Capital
Corporation (Singapore) Pte. Limited
#39-04, 6 Battery Road
Singapore 049909
Tel: (65) 6572-1999
Fax: (65) 6327-1278
China International Capital
Corporation (UK) Limited
Level 25, 125 Old Broad Street
London EC2N 1AR, United Kingdom
Tel: (44-20) 7367-5718
Fax: (44-20) 7367-5719