Labour market trends and policy, Scotland 2015

Stephen Boyd, STUC

Oxfam Decent Work Seminar

25 March 2015

THE EMPLOYMENT BOOM?

PART 1

Scottish Labour Market 2015

• Relatively high employment (though yet to achieve pre-recession rate), falling unemployment (though still 50k above pre-recession level)

• Workers less likely to be full-time/employees• More likely to be part-time, temporary, self-

employed, under-employed• Rapid increase in insecure forms of work (but

poor information!)• Unprecedented sustained collapse in median

wage

Employees, self-employed (000s), Scotland, 2007-2014

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

2,080

2,100

2,120

2,140

2,160

2,180

2,200

2,220

2,240

2,260

2,280

Employees (LH axis) self-employed (RH axis)

Full-time, part-time jobs (000s), Scotland, 2007-2014

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

1,850

1,900

1,950

Full-time (LH axis) Part-time (RH axis)

Underemployment, Scotland, 2004-2013

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Change in employment rate (%) by age group, Scotland, 2004-2014

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

16-24 25 - 34 35 - 49 50 - 64 65+

Real median wage (gross weekly earnings adjusted by both CPI and RPI inflation) by gender and job type, Scotland, 2009-2014

In employment on a zero-hour contract, UK, 2000-2014

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (1) 2014 (2)

Percentage of people in employment on a zero-hour contract

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

UK2 England N East N West Y & H E Mid W Mid East London South East SouthWest

Wales Scotland

Employees feeling tense, worried, uneasy ‘all’, ‘most’ or ‘some’ of the time by usual weekly working hours (%),

WERS 2011

Spend (% of GDP) on active labour market programmes, 2001-2011

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

EU (28 countries)

Denmark

Germany

Netherlands

Austria

Finland

Sweden

United Kingdom

REMARKABLE SURGE IN WOMEN’S EMPLOYMENT

Change in 16-64yrs employment rate (%), Nov-Jan 2013 to Nov-Jan 2015

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

NE NW Y&H EM WM East London SE SW Wales Scot

Men Women

16-64 years employment rate by gender, Scotland, 1992-2015

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

Men Women

76.5%, 1992

80.3%, 2007 76.0%,

2015

61.5%, 1992

70.2%, 2008

72.2%2015

LABOUR MARKET POLICY

PART 2

Diverging approaches

Coalition• Promote and extend flexibility of UK model• Widen asymmetries of economic power; anti

workplace democracy

Scottish Government• Social partnership• Fair Work• Living Wage• Working Together Review• Cabinet Secretary for Fair Work, Skills and Training

Programme for Government

“We [also] need to make sure that those in work get fairly rewarded…A thriving economy depends on well-motivated, better paid workers. Our strong support for business and our measures to reduce inequality go hand in hand. Our society will be all the fairer and more successful when we end the blight of low pay”. Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister, November 2014

Programme for Government Commitments

• Range of measures to ‘expand the living wage’

• Publish statutory guidance by end 2015 on how workforce-related matters should be taken into account in public contracts

• Gender balance on boards

• Business Pledge

Fair Work Convention

• “will be a powerful advocate of the partnership approach which characterises industrial relations in Scotland at their best”

• “will prioritise the role of the Living Wage and develop a Fair Work Framework for Scotland”

Scotland’s Economic Strategy

• “Promote Fair Work and build a labour market that provides sustainable and well-paid jobs”

• “Develop with key partners, such as business organisations and trade unions, innovative approaches to developing progressive workplace practices”

• “Bringing more people into the labour market is key to tackling poverty, inequality and social deprivation and improving health and wellbeing”

Barriers

• Starting from a bad place: deeply entrenched asymmetries of economic power (relatively low TU membership and collective bargaining coverage)

• UK’s distinct model of shareholder capitalism (uniquely febrile market for corporate control; poor corporate governance etc)

• Lack of capacity in key institutions: social partners, academia

• No tradition of social partnership• Employer organisations: atomised, unrepresentative,

ideological, poorly resourced (no analytical capability between them)

• Ownership and control too often beyond Scotland’s borders