own the future iShares megatrends - Fidelity Investments · Direct Marketing Retail Index ... 2015...
Transcript of own the future iShares megatrends - Fidelity Investments · Direct Marketing Retail Index ... 2015...
OWN THE FUTUREwith iShares megatrend ETFs
Jeff Spiegel
US Head of iShares Megatrend and International ETFs
October 24, 2019
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Structural vs. cyclical themes
Structural themes are long-term opportunities driven by powerful
transformations in our economy and society
Ma
gn
itu
de
Time
Illustrative purposes only.
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Structural theme: horses vs. cars
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From 1905-1930, the number of horse-drawn carriages fell 93%
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) Riding the Energy Transition, May 2017
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Televisions in US households
0.01%
19461
83%19582
1 "1920s-1960s Television", Elon University School of Communications 2 "Number of TV Households in America", Buffalo History Museum
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The modern world is changing at the speed of innovationTechnology is now reshaping our everyday lives, with adoption of new technologies happening faster and faster, leading to exponential change.
1 Source: All 3 “billion” stats: (2013) Hal Varian, “Beyond Big Data”. 2 Source: Pew Research Chart of the Week: The ever-accelerating rate of technology adoption; Yahoo Finance for number of active users at Facebook over the years.
…hours agohumanity emerged
…seconds ago IBM released first PC
…Google searches ago was this morning1
Years new technology takes to reach 1/4 of American population2
46years
1873Electricity
35years
1876Telephone
26years
1926Television
16years
1975PC
13years
1983Mobile phone
7years
1991The Web
4years
2004Facebook
1 billion…
What are the other forces changing our world at a rapid pace?
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What would you sacrifice for screen time?
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Drumroll please…
49%willing to give up dessert
Source: Delvv, Digital Habits 2016 Survey Findings, June 2016
74%willing to give up alcohol
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F – A – A – N - G
References to specific companies are strictly for illustrative purposes only and should no be construed as investment advice or recommendation regarding those companies. For top 10 holdings please see end of presentation.
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The future is often easy to see, but investing in it is harder
For illustrative purposes only. Source 1: Bloomberg. Disaster of the Day: Etoys, 12.18.00 https://www.forbes.com/2000/12/18/1218disaster.html#263e0f5148e5 Etoys, Inc. History, 2001 http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-histories/etoys-inc-history/ Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. Index performance does not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. References to specific companies are strictly for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations regarding those companies. For holdings information for the iShares funds, please visit https://www.iShares.com. The following funds have a percentage holding of amazon as of 10/15/19: (XT 0.51%), (IRBO 1.10%), (IHAK 0%), (IDNA 0%), (IGF 0%) (EMIF 0%) (IFRA 0%) (ICLN 0%) (IDRV 0%), (CNYA 0%) (BGSIX 3.05%) (SHSSX %) (CHILX 0%).
AmazonNASDAQ
Composite Index
eToys MSCI ACWI Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Index
1999 – 2001 total return
$0k
Too narrowSpecific stocks can be volatile.
Picking winners and losers is hard.
Too broadBroad indexes may be too
diversified to offer outperformance.
$29k $176k
Targeted megatrend indexSeeking balance between specific stocks and broad based indexes.
Tech stocks Broad tech index Targeted index
$260k
1999Two of the most
promising brands
2001eToys files for bankruptcy
Hypothetical Growth of $10k from May 19, 1999 to present1
Amazon
eToys
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T – R – E – N - D
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Let’s give ‘em something to talk aboutMegatrends align beliefs about the future with intuitive growth stories to help differentiate your traditional portfolio and invest in areas that you care about.
Focused on tangible,
long-term opportunities
Will there be more self-drivingcars in 10 years?
Growth trends that investors can believe in
Are self-driving cars cool? Megatrends
News that creates excitement and buzz
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At a tipping pointRegulatory, societal and economic forces are tailwinds for long-term, secular trends
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Willingness to pay a premium for
foods with health benefits
0
20
40
60
80
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120
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180
20
05
20
08
20
11
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17E
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20E
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23E
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26E
20
29E
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32E
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35E
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38E
Gra
ms
CO
2/
km
European New Car Average
European Target
Tougher regulatory emissions targets for new cars
0
10
20
30
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60
Without AWS With AWS
$ (
mil
lio
ns
) p
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org
an
iza
tio
n o
ve
r fi
ve
ye
ars
Five-year cost of operations using Amazon Web Services
IT infrastructure related costs
IT staff time costs
Lost productivity and unplanned downtime
51% lower utilizing cloud
computing
Regulatory forces: Societal forces: Economic forces:
For illustrative purposes only. Forecasts may not come to pass. Source: Left: Credit Suisse, 2018. Middle: Nielsen, 2015. Right: IDC, 2018
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Off the (value) chain
For illustrative purposes only.The specific companies identified and described above do not represent all of the companies purchased or sold, and no assumptions should be made that the companies identified and discussed were or will be profitable. For top 10 holdings please see back of presentation.
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Megatrends are driving changeMegatrends are the long-term, transformational forces influencing the future of our global economy & society.
Technological Breakthrough
Demographics & Social Change
Climate Change & Resource Scarcity
Emerging Global Wealth
Rapid Urbanization
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Tech breakthrough
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Internet-connected devices
2015 15bn
2017 20bn
2019 28bn
2021 35bn
2023 50bn
2025 75bn
Source: Statista, Internet of Things (IoT) Connected Devices Installed Base Worldwide from 2015 to 2025. For illustrative purposes only.
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More data more problems
Data Breaches in the U.S. (in millions)
157in 2005
1,579in 2017
Source: ITRC, 2017 ITR Annual Data Breach Year-End Review, as of February 2018. For illustrative purposes only.
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Demographics & social change
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Longer, healthier lives
Global genomics market (in millions of $US)
62,614.6by 2026
15,888.8
in 2018
Sources: Left side: United Nations World Population Prospects: the 2017 Revision. Right side: Fortune Business Insights, Genomics Market, October 2019
Projected world population of 60+ age group
20
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
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2.5B
2B
1.5B
1B
0.5B
Personalized medicine
5. Dendric cells present antigen to t-
cells
6. T-cells destroy
cancer cells
3. Select dendric cells that present antigen on
surface
4. Inject back in the
body
multiplycells
2. Expose the tumor cells to
the dendric cells
1. Collect cancer
dendritic cells
multiply cells
Source: The Online Scientist, October 2019
How immunotherapy works:
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Rapid urbanization
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Rise of the megacitiesPopulation growth of the world’s megacities
Tokyo2018: 37,4682030: 36,574(-2%)
Shanghai2018: 25,5822030: 32,869(28%)
Sao Paulo2018: 21,6502030: 23,824(10%)
Mexico City2018: 21,5812030: 24,111(12%)
Cairo2018: 20,0762030: 25,517(27%)
Mumbai2018: 19,9802030: 24,572(23%)
Beijing2018: 19,6182030: 24,282(24%)
Dhaka2018: 19,5782030: 28,076(43%)
Delhi2018: 28,5142030: 38,939(37%)
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, The World’s Cities in 2018
New York2018: 18,8192030: 19,958(6%)
Los Angeles2018: 12,4582030: 13,209(6%)
Climate change & resource scarcity
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Untapped potential
U.S.$16B
. 12
4
14
204
Latin America$218B
68
83
Others$151B
100
125
Africa$225B
20
10 Middle East$30B
839
260
Asia$1.1T
Unconditional Targets
Conditional Targets
Source: International Renewable Energy Agency, Untapped potential for climate action: Renewable energy in Nationally Determined Contributions, November 2017
Total investment needed by 2030 for the implementation of renewable energy targets in current NDCs (USD billion)
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Clean, green tomorrow
2m2018
2040
Structural growth opportunity: Annual Electric Vehicle (EV) sales globally
56m
Source: Bloomberg NEF, Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019. Forecast may not come to pass.
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Emerging global wealth
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A billion people here
Online Population: 265M 702M
Offline Population: 59M 677M
China’s vast digital potentialOnline vs. offline population in China compared to the United States in 2016
Source: Statista, China’s Vast Digital Potential, May 2017
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A billion people there
7.4%
8.2% 8.2%
7.2%
6.8%
7.3%
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
India’s GDP growth
Source: Central Statistics Office, RBI, IMF, World Bank, Economic Survey. July 2019. 2019-20 projection is an average of World Bank (7.5%), IMF (7.2%) and RBI (7.0%). For illustrative purposes only.
Past 5 years and 2019-20 projections1
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Megatrends are shaping our future
Demographics & social change
Climate change & resource scarcity
Emerging global wealth
Technological breakthrough
Rapid urbanization
Longer lifespans and modern lifestyles will change medicine and consumer habits
Demand for a clean, green tomorrow will advance energy and conservation
Newly affluent consumers will expand in Asia and across emerging markets
Technology is driving exponential progressin the tech sectorand far beyond
Mass migration to cities will require new business models and infrastructure
• Genomics Immunology & Healthcare (IDNA)
• Clean Energy (ICLN)• Self-Driving EV & Tech
(IDRV)
• MSCI China A (CNYA)• Exponential Technologies (XT)
• Robotics & AI Multisector (IRBO)
• Cybersecurity & Tech (IHAK)
• Global Infra (IGF)• EM Infra (EMIF)• U.S. Infra (IFRA)
iSh
are
sE
TF
s
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APPENDIX
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CNYA, EMIF, IFRA: Top 10 Constituents
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CNYA EMIF IFRA
Name Weight (%) Name Weight (%) Name Weight (%)
KWEICHOW MOUTAI LTD A 6.63AIRPORTS OF THAILAND
NON-VOTING DR9.95 TUTOR PERINI CORP 0.92
PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) OF CHINA
4.35 TRANSNEFT PREF 6.77STERLING CONSTRUCTION
INC0.84
CHINA MERCHANTS BANK LTD A
3.37ULTRAPAR PARTICIPACOES
ADR REPRESE6.45
EQUITRANS MIDSTREAM CORP
0.82
WULIANGYE YIBIN LTD A 2.33 TENAGA NASIONAL 6.13CORNERSTONE BUILDING
BRANDS INC0.82
CHINA YANGTZE POWER LTD A
1.79COMPANHIA CONCESSOES
RODOVIARIAS S5.97 ANTERO MIDSTREAM CORP 0.78
INDUSTRIAL BANK LTD A 1.75 CHINA GAS HOLDINGS LTD 5.59 MIDDLESEX WATER 0.76
SHANGHAI PUDONG DEVELOPMENT BANK L
1.65ENEL AMERICAS ADR
REPRESENTING SA4.69 DOMINION ENERGY INC 0.76
JIANGSU HENGRUI MEDICINE LTD A
1.65GRUPO AEROPORTUARIO
DEL PACIFICO A4.65 SJW GROUP 0.76
INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL BANK OF
1.37GUANGDONG INVESTMENT
LTD4.05 VISTRA ENERGY CORP 0.76
HANGZHOU HIKVISION DIGITAL TECHNOL
1.3GRUPO AEROPORTUARIO
ADR REPRESENTI3.86 ONE GAS INC 0.75
Source: BlackRock, data as of 10/15/19
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ICLN, IDRV, IRBO: Top 10 Constituents
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ICLN IDRV IRBO
Name Weight (%) Name Weight (%) Name Weight (%)
SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES INC
7.96 NVIDIA CORP 4.8 SALESFORCE.COM INC 2.53
ORMAT TECH INC 6.12 APPLE INC 4.66 CLOUDERA INC 1.85
CONTACT ENERGY LTD 5.76 ALPHABET INC CLASS A 4.32 NAVER CORP 1.59
MERIDIAN ENERGY LTD 5.74 INTEL CORP 4.24 AMBARELLA INC 1.53
PATTERN ENERGY GROUP INC CLASS A
4.81 QUALCOMM INC 4.2LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR
CORP1.52
VERBUND AG 4.79 TOYOTA MOTOR CORP 4.15 STMICROELECTRONICS NV 1.48
FIRST SOLAR INC 4.27 SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS LTD 4.15 NVIDIA CORP 1.44
COVANTA HOLDING CORP 4.1 GENERAL MOTORS 3.72 LINE CORP 1.44
VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS 4.06 DAIMLER AG 3.64 GLOBAL UNICHIP CORP 1.41
COMPANHIA ENERGETICA MINAS GERAIS
4 SIEMENS N AG 3.49 APPLE INC 1.4
Source: BlackRock, data as of 10/15/19
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XT, IHAK, IDNA: Top 10 Constituents
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XT IHAK IDNA
Name Weight (%) Name Weight (%) Name Weight (%)
ASM INTERNATIONAL NV 1.04 DOCUSIGN INC 5.53 SEATTLE GENETICS INC 5.32
AMS AG 0.84 SYMANTEC CORP 4.85 GENMAB 5.16
LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE GROUP PLC
0.82 PROOFPOINT INC 4.75ALNYLAM
PHARMACEUTICALS INC5.12
CYPRESS SEMICONDUCTOR CORP
0.81CACI INTERNATIONAL INC
CLASS A4.34
REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS INC
4.53
KLA CORP 0.78 PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC 4.33 FIBROGEN INC 4.37
LAM RESEARCH CORP 0.77 FORTINET INC 4.26 SPARK THERAPEUTICS INC 4.11
ASML HOLDING NV 0.73BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON
HOLDING CORP C4.23 ASTRAZENECA PLC 3.99
MEDIATEK INC 0.72 TREND MICRO INC 4.2 BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB 3.78
MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD
0.71 CITRIX SYSTEMS INC 4.07 EXELIXIS INC 3.7
TOKYO ELECTRON LTD 0.7CHECK POINT SOFTWARE
TECHNOLOGIES3.86 SANOFI SA 3.54
Source: BlackRock, data as of 10/15/19
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IGF: Top 10 Constituents
35
IGF
Name Weight (%)
AENA SME SA 5.08
ENBRIDGE INC 4.96
TRANSURBAN GROUP STAPLED
UNITS4.85
NEXTERA ENERGY INC
4.83
ATLANTIA 4.24
TC ENERGY CORP 3.26
DUKE ENERGY CORP
2.99
DOMINION ENERGY INC
2.88
SOUTHERN 2.75
KINDER MORGAN INC
2.68
Source: BlackRock, data as of 10/15/19
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Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses which may be obtained by visiting www.iShares.com or www.blackrock.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.
International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks often are heightened for investments in emerging/developing markets and in concentrations of single countries.
Funds that concentrate investments in specific industries, sectors, markets or asset classes may underperform or be more volatile than other industries, sectors, markets or asset classes than the general securities market.
Technology companies may be subject to severe competition and product obsolescence. Technologies perceived to displace older technologies or create new markets may not in fact do so. Companies that initially develop a novel technology may not be able to capitalize on the technology.
This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice, or a recommendation regarding any products, strategies, or any security in particular. This material is strictly for illustrative, educational, or informational purposes and is subject to change. The strategies discussed are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and are not a recommendation
– ©2019 BlackRock. All rights reserved. BlackRock is a registered trademarks of BlackRock. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. Must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus.
Prepared by BlackRock Investments, LLC. Member FINRA.
Important notes
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This material is prepared by BlackRock and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of October 2019 and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents.
International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks often are heightened for investments in emerging/developing markets and in concentrations of single countries. Funds that concentrate investments in specific industries, sectors, markets or asset classes may underperform or be more volatile than other industries, sectors, markets or asset classes than the general securities market. Technology companies may be subject to severe competition and product obsolescence. Technologies perceived to displace older technologies or create new markets may not in fact do so. Companies that initially develop a novel technology may not be able to capitalize on the technology.
This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice, or a recommendation regarding any products, strategies, or any security in particular. This material is strictly for illustrative, educational, or informational purposes and is subject to change.
The strategies discussed are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and are not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. There is no guarantee that any strategies discussed will be effective.
The iShares MSCI China A ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to invest in A-shares through Stock Connect, a securities trading and clearing program that aims to provide stock access between the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong. Trading through Stock Connect is subject to a daily quota (the “Daily Quota”), which limits the maximum net purchases under Stock Connect each day, and as such, buy orders for A-shares would be rejected once the Daily Quota is exceeded. The A-shares market has a greater risk for market suspensions than other global markets. These risks may cause the Fund have higher tracking error and/or greater costs than other international investments.
The iShares Funds are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by ICE Data Services, LLC, MSCI Inc. Morningstar, or S&P Down Jones Indices LLC nor do these companies make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in the Funds. BlackRock is not affiliated with ICE Data Services, LLC, MSCI Inc., Morningstar or S&P Down Jones Indices LLC.
The information provided in this communication is solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as advice or an investment recommendation. Fidelity Investments is a separate company, unaffiliated with BlackRock, Inc.. There is no form of partnership, agency affiliation, or similar relationship between BlackRock, Inc. and Fidelity Investments, nor is such a relationship created or implied by the information herein. Fidelity Investments has not been involved with the preparation of the content supplied by BlackRock, Inc. and does not guarantee or assume any responsibility for its accuracy or completeness.
©2019 BlackRock. All rights reserved. iShares and BlackRock are registered trademarks of BlackRock. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. Must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus.
Important notes
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