Overview report to City of Temecula/Affiliate event 2/22/12
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It’s Time To Buy Again SOURCE: “Real estate: It’s time to buy again” Fortune Magazine’s 3/28/11 article written by Shawn Tully “Forget stocks. Don't bet on gold. After four years of plunging home prices, the most attractive asset class in America is housing.” It’s The Economy, Stupid With your host… STILL
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Transcript of Overview report to City of Temecula/Affiliate event 2/22/12
It’s Time To Buy Again
SOURCE: “Real estate: It’s time to buy again”Fortune Magazine’s 3/28/11 article written by Shawn Tully
“Forget stocks. Don't bet on gold. After four years of plunging home prices, the most attractive asset class in America is housing.”
It’s The Economy,Stupid
With your host…
Gene Wunderlich
STILL
Regional Housing SummaryTemecula, Murrieta, Lake Elsinore, Menifee, Wildomar, Canyon Lake
Single Family Residential - Full Value Sales Prepared by [email protected]
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Temecula
# Sales 1,975 1,742 1,141 805 1,569 1,334 1,987 1,902Median $ $437,159 $484,978 $526,237 $475,522 $337,732 $289,857 $300,234 $301,279
Gross Sales Revenue $863,389,025 $844,831,676 $600,436,417 $382,795,210 $529,901,508 $386,669,238 $596,564,958 $573,032,658
Murrieta # Sales 1,679 1,661 1,252 687 2,054 1,666 2,236 1,978
Median $ $432,511 $488,757 $530,912 $473,562 $304,466 $271,107 $270,878 $269,948Gross Sales
Revenue $726,185,969 $811,825,377 $664,701,824 $325,337,094 $625,373,164 $451,664,262 $605,683,208 $533,957,144
Wildomar # Sales 361 327 317 218 473 287 398 388
Median $ $393,540 $442,018 $463,920 $435,608 $296,054 $225,739 $220,745 $224,634Gross Sales
Revenue $142,067,940 $144,539,886 $147,062,640 $94,962,544 $140,033,542 $64,787,093 $87,856,510 $87,157,992
Lake Elsinore # Sales 914 1,054 700 335 1,154 959 1,387 1,237
Median $ $306,607 $363,543 $431,158 $366,358 $183,819 $179,965 $182,925 $176,353Gross Sales
Revenue $280,238,798 $383,174,322 $301,810,600 $122,729,930 $212,127,126 $172,586,435 $253,716,975 $218,148,661
Menifee # Sales 820 763 520 498 1,005 651 1,142 1,672
Median $ $323,138 $364,695 $418,974 $370,671 $259,504 $201,866 $206,414 $185,131Gross Sales
Revenue $264,973,160 $278,262,285 $217,866,480 $184,594,158 $260,801,520 $131,414,766 $235,724,788 $309,539,032
Canyon Lake # Sales 468 342 286 133 330 306 379 281
Median $ $443,384 $480,200 $567,071 $548,205 $300,561 $241,416 $251,006 $256,420Gross Sales
Revenue $207,503,712 $164,228,400 $162,182,306 $72,911,265 $99,185,130 $73,873,296 $95,131,274 $72,054,020
2004 2005 2006 2007 200 2009 2010 20110
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
62275889
4216
2676
6585
5203
7529 7458
Southwest California
2
Southwest CaliforniaSingle Family Home SalesAnnual Sales by Region
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Temecula Murrieta Lake ElsinoreMenifee Wildomar Canyon Lake
2011 SFR Sales by Sales Type
2004 2005 2006 2007 200 2009 2010 20110
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
$389,389
$437,364
$489,712
$444,988
$287,873
$234,992 $238,701 $235,628
Southwest California
2011 SFR Median Price by Year
Regional median price has hovered within a $3,700 range for three years. Your median home is worth $636 bucks more than it was two years ago. Yay! 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Monthly Active Listings(Inventory)
Temecula Linear (Temecula) Murrieta Lake ElsinoreMenifee Wildomar Canyon Lake
On Market (Supply)
Pending Closed (Demand)
Days on Market Months Supply Absorption rate *
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
473
225185
97
2.55675675675676
145
391
247
170
97
2.3
130
294
170
10888
2.72222222222222
121
465
233
137
87
3.39416058394161
92109
30 27
114
4.03703703703703
10880
5531
74
2.58064516129032
97
* Absorption rate - # of new listings for the month/# of sold listings for the month
December Market Activity by Sales Type Standard Sale Bank Owned Short Sale
Active% of MKT Sold
% of MKT
Active
% of MKT Sold
% of MKT
Active
% of MKT Sold
% of MKT
Temecula 180 46% 76 45% 55 14% 30 18% 154 39% 63 37%
Murrieta 225 48% 68 37% 63 13% 54 29% 176 37% 61 33%Laker Elsinore 88 30% 41 38% 35 12% 34 31% 159 54% 28 26%
Menifee 179 38% 59 43% 55 12% 37 27% 224 48% 2 1%
Wildomar 27 34% 10 32% 16 20% 13 42% 35 44% 7 23%Canyon Lake 64 59% 12 44% 13 12% 3 11% 29 27% 11 41%Regional Average 763 42% 266 40% 237 14% 171 26% 777 42% 172 27%
December Demand Chart
SRCAR.ORG/GADBLOG
Facebook.com/SRCARGAD
2012 Preview : State
Accelerated 3% withholding
4% flat tax – including services
Point of sale mandates
Mortgage interest deduction
40+ ballot propositions
Taxes, taxes, Texas
Federal Issues – Critical Concerns
• High-cost Loan Limits - expired 10/1/11 (except
FHA)
• Future of Fannie and Freddie? FHA?
• Tax Reform on the horizon
Mortgage Interest Deduction?
Capital Gains?
• QRM (Qualified Residential Mortgage) 20%
Down
Is the future of the 30 year mortgage in
doubt?
It’s Time To Buy Again
SOURCE: “Real estate: It’s time to buy again”Fortune Magazine’s 3/28/11 article written by Shawn Tully
“Forget stocks. Don't bet on gold. After four years of plunging home prices, the most attractive asset class in America is housing.”
Japanese
Earthquak
e
&
Tsunam
i
Sovereign Debt
Crisis in EuroZone
Oil Price Spikes
2011: A Year of Economic Wild Cards
Arab Spring
Political
Change on
Capitol Hill
Debt Limit Ceiling & Downgrad
e of US Debt
Stock Market
Volatility
2012 – What’s Ahead
• Stable to increasing home sales• Stable median price• Declining inventory of resale homes• Rising rents• Lack of new home inventory• Compelling affordability• Record low interest rates
Pent up demand
It’s Time To Buy Again
SOURCE: “Real estate: It’s time to buy again”Fortune Magazine’s 3/28/11 article written by Shawn Tully
“Forget stocks. Don't bet on gold. After four years of plunging home prices, the most attractive asset class in America is housing.”
