Overview & Outlook for the P/C Insurance Industry: Behind the Numbers Alabama I-Day Tuscaloosa, AL...
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Transcript of Overview & Outlook for the P/C Insurance Industry: Behind the Numbers Alabama I-Day Tuscaloosa, AL...
Overview & Outlookfor the P/C Insurance Industry:
Behind the Numbers
Alabama I-DayTuscaloosa, ALOctober 8, 2014
Steven N. Weisbart, Ph.D., CLU, Senior Vice President & Chief EconomistInsurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY 10038
Tel: 212.346.5540 Cell: 917.494.5945 [email protected] www.iii.org
2
2013: Best Year (So Far)in the Post-Crisis Era
Performance Improved with Lower CATs, Firming Markets
2
3
P/C Net Premiums Written: % Change, Quarter vs. Year-Prior Quarter
Sources: ISO, Insurance Information Institute.
Sustained growth in written premiums(vs. the same quarter, prior year) should continue through 2014.
10.2
%15
.1%
16.8
%16
.7%
12.5
%10
.1%
9.7%
7.8%
7.2%
5.6%
2.9%
5.5%
-4.6
%-4
.1%
-5.8
%-1
.6%
10.3
%10
.2% 13
.4%
6.6%
-1.6
%2.
1%0.
0%-1
.9%
0.5%
-1.8
%-0
.7%
-4.4
%-3
.7%
-5.3
%-5
.2%
-1.4
%-1
.3%
1.3% 2.
3%1.
7% 3.5%
1.6%
4.1%
3.8%
3.0% 4.
2% 5.1%
4.8%
4.1% 4.7%
4.2% 4.7%
3.6% 4.2%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%20
02:Q
120
02:Q
220
02:Q
320
02:Q
420
03:Q
120
03:Q
220
03:Q
320
03:Q
420
04:Q
120
04:Q
220
04:Q
320
04:Q
420
05:Q
120
05:Q
220
05:Q
320
05:Q
420
06:Q
120
06:Q
220
06:Q
320
06:Q
420
07:Q
120
07:Q
220
07:Q
320
07:Q
420
08:Q
120
08:Q
220
08:Q
320
08:Q
420
09:Q
120
09:Q
220
09:Q
320
09:Q
420
10:Q
120
10:Q
220
10:Q
320
10:Q
420
11:Q
120
11:Q
220
11:Q
320
11:Q
420
12:Q
120
12:Q
220
12:Q
320
12:Q
420
13:Q
120
13:Q
120
13:Q
320
13:Q
420
14:Q
120
14:Q
2
2014:Q1 marked the 16th consecutive quarter of y-o-y
growth
Underwriting Gain (Loss)All Lines Combined, 1975–2014*
* Includes mortgage and financial guaranty insurers in all years. 2014:1H is estimated.Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute.
High CAT losses in 2011 led to the highest underwriting loss since 2001. Lower CAT losses in 2013
led to the highest underwriting profit since 2007.
-$60
-$50
-$40
-$30
-$20
-$10
$0
$10
$20
$30
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
14:1
H
($ Billions)Underwriting profit in 2013 was $15.5B
$1.22B 2014:1H profit
5
P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio, 2001–2014:1H
* Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers 2008--2012. Including M&FG, 2008=105.1, 2009=100.7, 2010=102.4, 2011=108.1; 2012:=103.2; 2013: = 96.1; 2014.1H: 98.9 Sources: A.M. Best, ISO.
95.7
99.3100.8
106.3
102.4
96.799.0
101.0
92.6
100.898.4
100.1
107.5
115.8
90
100
110
120
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
:1H
Best Combined
Ratio Since 1949
(87.6)
As Recently as 2001, Insurers
Paid Out Nearly $1.16 for Every
$1 in Earned Premiums
Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases
Heavy Use of Reinsurance Lowered Net
Losses
Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases
Avg. CAT Losses,
More Reserve Releases
Higher CAT
Losses, Shrinking Reserve
Releases, Toll of Soft
Market
Cyclical Deterioration
Sandy Impacts
Lower CAT
Losses
P/C Industry Net Income After Taxes1991–2014:1H
2005 ROE*= 9.6% 2006 ROE = 12.7% 2007 ROE = 10.9% 2008 ROE = 0.1% 2009 ROE = 5.0% 2010 ROE = 6.6% 2011 ROAS1 = 3.5% 2012 ROAS1 = 5.9% 2013 ROAS1 = 10.3%
• ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 8.9% ROAS through 2013:Q3, 6.2% ROAS in 2012, 4.7% ROAS for 2011, 7.6% for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009.
Sources: A.M. Best, ISO; Insurance Information Institute
$1
4,1
78
$5
,84
0
$1
9,3
16
$1
0,8
70
$2
0,5
98
$2
4,4
04 $3
6,8
19
$3
0,7
73
$2
1,8
65
$3
,04
6
$3
0,0
29
$6
2,4
96
$3
,04
3
$3
5,2
04
$1
9,4
56 $
33
,52
2
$6
3,7
84
$2
5,9
80
$2
8,6
72
-$6,970
$6
5,7
77
$4
4,1
55
$2
0,5
59
$3
8,5
01
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
14:1
H
Net income rose strongly (+81.9%)
vs. 2012$ Millions
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1975 – 2014:1H*
*Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs. 2011-13 figures are estimates based on ROAS data. Note: Data for 2008-2013 exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers.Source: Insurance Information Institute; NAIC, ISO, A.M. Best.
1977:19.0%1987:17.3%
1997:11.6% 2006:12.7%
1984: 1.8%1992: 4.5% 2001: -1.2%
10 Years
10 Years9 Years
History suggests next ROE peak will be in 2016-2017
ROE
1975: 2.4%
2013 10.4%
8
Policyholder Surplus, 2006:Q4–2014:1H
Sources: ISO, A.M .Best.
($ Billions)$4
87.1
$496
.6
$512
.8
$521
.8
$478
.5
$455
.6
$437
.1
$463
.0
$490
.8
$511
.5
$540
.7
$530
.5
$544
.8
$559
.2
$559
.1
$538
.6
$550
.3
$567
.8
$583
.5
$587
.1 $624
.4
$653
.3
$662
.0
$671
.6
$570
.7
$566
.5
$505
.0
$515
.6
$517
.9
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
06:Q
4
07:Q
1
07:Q
2
07:Q
3
07:Q
4
08:Q
1
08:Q
2
08:Q
3
08:Q
4
09:Q
1
09:Q
2
09:Q
3
09:Q
4
10:Q
1
10:Q
2
10:Q
3
10:Q
4
11:Q
1
11:Q
2
11:Q
3
11:Q
4
12:Q
1
12:Q
2
12:Q
3
12:Q
4
13:Q
3
13:Q
4
14:Q
1
14:Q
2
2007:Q3Pre-Crisis Peak
2010:Q1 data includes $22.5B of paid-in capital from a holding company parent for one insurer’s investment in a non-insurance business .
The industry now has $1 of surplus for every $0.73 of NPW,the strongest claims-paying status in its history.
Drop due to near-record 2011 CAT losses
The P/C insurance industry enteredthe second half of 2014
in very strong financial shape.
10
Return on Net Worth, All Lines:2002-2012
Source: NAIC.
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
AL MS GA
11
Return on Net Worth, All Lines:2002-2012
Sources: NAIC.
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
AL FL TN
12
Return on Net Worth, All Lines:2003-2012 Average, by State
Sources: NAIC.
8.6%7.9%
5.5%4.9%
2.0%
-6.5%-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
FL US GA TN AL MS
13
RNW PP Auto: Alabama and Neighboring States, 2003-2012, 10-year average
Sources: NAIC.
8.1%
5.9% 5.8% 5.5%
4.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
AL MS TN GA FL
14
RNW HO: Alabama and NeighboringStates, 2003-2012, 10-year average
Sources: NAIC.
0.0%
-7.2%
-14.4%-16.6%
-24.7%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
FL GA AL TN MS
15
RNW CMP: Alabama and NeighboringStates, 2003-2012, 10-year average
Sources: NAIC.
7.3%
5.7%
1.8%
-2.2%
-3.7%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
FL GA TN AL MS
16
RNW WC: Alabama and NeighboringStates, 2003-2012, 10-year average
Sources: NAIC.
11.0%
7.6% 7.4%6.9%
4.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
FL MS AL TN GA
The Strength of the Economy Will Influence P/C Insurer
Growth Opportunities
17
Growth Will Expand Insurer Exposure Base Across Most Lines
17
18
Real Quarterly GDP Growth Sincethe “Great Recession, and Forecast
Forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators; data are quarterly changes at annualized rates.Sources: (history) US Department of Commerce,at http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp ; (forecasts) Blue Chip Economic Indicators 9/14; Insurance Information Institute.
-1.5
%2.
9%0.
8%4.
6%2.
3%1.
6% 2.5%
0.1%
1.8%
4.5%
3.5%
-2.1
%4.
6%2.
5%2.
4%2.
4% 2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
1.0%
1.1%
1.1% 1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
2.7%
1.3%
3.9%
1.7%
3.9%
2.7%
2.5%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
09:3
Q
09:4
Q
10:1
Q
10:2
Q
10:3
Q
10:4
Q
11:1
Q
11:2
Q
11:3
Q
11:4
Q
12:1
Q
12:2
Q
12:3
Q
12:4
Q
13:1
Q
13:2
Q
13:3
Q
13:4
Q
14:1
Q
14:2
Q
14:3
Q
14:4
Q
15:1
Q
15:2
Q
15:3
Q
15:4
Q
Demand for insurance continues to be affected by sluggish economic conditions, but the benefits of even slow growth will compound and
gradually benefit the economy broadly.
Additional growth
forecast by average of
10 most optimistic
models
Growth forecast by average of
10 least optimistic
models
Since the Great Recession ended, even 3% real growth in a quarter has been unusual
(only 6 times in 20 quarters)
0.1%
19
Real Quarterly GDP Growth by State, 2013
Data are seasonally-adjusted quarterly changes at annualized ratesSource: US Department of Commerce,at http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/2014/pdf/qgsp0814.pdf
5.7%
1.9%2.3%
0.1% 0.
8%
0.9%
3.3%
10.3
%
4.4%
2.0%
4.0%
0.7%
-3.0
%
3.7% 3.9%
2.3%
-0.4
%
4.2%
3.2%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
AL MS FL GA TN
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Economic growth varied widely among Alabama and its neighbors in 2013. Not only were the rates of growth different from state to state,
but even the direction of growth differed.
70
16
8 21
23
22
10
22
17
10
61
22
22
11
83
16
4 19
63
60
22
62
43
96 11
08
81
60
15
01
61
22
52
03
21
41
97
28
01
41
20
31
99
20
11
492
02
16
42
37 2
74
84
14
42
22
20
33
04
22
9 26
72
43
18
02
48
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-1
1F
eb
-11
Mar-
11
Apr-
11
May-1
1Jun-1
1Jul-1
1A
ug
-11
Sep
-11
Oct-
11
Nov-1
1D
ec-1
1Jan-1
2F
eb
-12
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2Jun-1
2Jul-1
2A
ug
-12
Sep
-12
Oct-
12
Nov-1
2D
ec-1
2Jan-1
3F
eb
-13
Mar-
13
Apr-
13
May 1
3Jun-1
3Jul-1
3A
ug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct-
13
Nov-1
3D
ec 1
3Jan-1
4F
eb
-14
Mar-
14
Apr-
14
May 1
4Jun-1
4Jul-1
4A
ug
-14
Sep
-14
Monthly Change in Nonfarm Employment, 2011 - 2014
Thousands
The pace of job growth varies considerably from month to month.
*Seasonally adjusted. Aug 2014 and Sept 2014 are preliminary data. Monthly gain for 2014 is average for January-AugustSources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute
20
Average Monthly Gain2011: 173,600 2012: 186,300 2013: 194,250 2014*: 226,700
21
AL Change in Nonfarm Employment: Quarterly, 2009:Q3—2014:Q3*
-16.2
-3.4
0.2
13.2
-8.6
4.4
-4.6-2.9
10.78.4
2.1
6.5 5.3 5.2 5.2
-1.2
14.2
-4.4
0.71.6
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
09
:Q3
20
09
:Q4
20
10
:Q1
20
10
:Q2
20
10
:Q3
20
10
:Q4
20
11
:Q1
20
11
:Q2
20
11
:Q3
20
11
:Q4
20
12
:Q1
20
12
:Q2
20
12
:Q3
20
12
:Q4
20
13
:Q1
20
13
:Q2
20
13
:Q3
20
13
:Q4
20
14
:Q1
20
14
:Q2
(Thousands)
*seasonally-adjustedSource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/data/#employment; Insurance Information Institute
Nonfarm employment growth in Alabama since the end of the “Great Recession” is still very variable, quarter to quarter; still, there are now 36,000 more people working in Alabama than in June 2009.
Nonfarm Employment, Birmingham vs. Montgomery, Mobile, & Tuscaloosa: Quarterly, 2008:Q1—2014:Q2*
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
20
08
.1
20
08
.3
20
09
.1
20
09
.3
20
10
.1
20
10
.3
20
11
.1
20
11
.3
20
12
.1
20
12
.3
20
13
.1
20
13
.3
20
14
.1
Mobile Birmingham Montgomery Tuscaloosa
*seasonally adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor; Insurance Information Institute.
Index 2008:Q1=100
Employment in Alabama’s major urban areas slumped sharply in the “Great Recession,” and all but Tuscaloosa are still down vs. 2008:Q1
Full-time vs. Part-time Employment,Quarterly, 2003-2014: WC Implications
110
113
116
119
122
2003
.120
03.2
2003
.320
03.4
2004
.120
04.2
2004
.320
04.4
2005
.120
05.2
2005
.320
05.4
2006
.120
06.2
2006
.320
06.4
2007
.120
07.2
2007
.320
07.4
2008
.120
08.2
2008
.320
08.4
2009
.120
09.2
2009
.320
09.4
2010
.120
10.2
2010
.320
10.4
2011
.120
11.2
2011
.320
11.4
2012
.120
12.2
2012
.320
12.4
2013
.120
13.2
2013
.320
13.4
2014
.120
14.2
Jul-1
4
24.0
24.5
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
Full-time Part-time
Data are seasonally-adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor; Insurance Information Institute.
The Great Recession shifted employment from full-time to part-time, and the recovery to date hasn’t changed that. Full-time employment is still 3.2 million
below its pre-recession peak, but part-time recently reached a new peak.
Millions Millions
Recession
Recession shifted employment growth from
full-time to part-time
Pre-recession, most new jobs were full-time
25
Millions of Units
Private Housing Unit Starts, 1990-2015F
1.4
8
1.4
7 1.6
2
1.6
4
1.5
7
1.6
0 1.7
1 1.8
5 1.9
6 2.0
7
1.8
0
1.3
6
0.9
1
0.5
5
0.5
9
0.6
1 0.7
8 0.9
3
1.0
1 1.2
01.3
51.4
6
1.2
9
1.2
0
1.0
11.1
9
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14F 15F
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (8/14); Insurance Information Institute.
Housing starts are rising, but this could be retarded by rising mortgage interest rates. Recently, the fastest growth is in multi-unit residences.
Personal lines exposure will grow, and commercial insurers with Workers Comp, Construction risk exposure, and Surety also benefit.
Housing unit starts plunged 72% from 2005-
2009, down 1.5 million, to lowest level since records
began in 1959
Still well below the levels reached in 1998-2002, before the bubble began
26
Units in Multiple-Unit Projectsas Percent of Total
US: Pct. Of Private Housing Unit StartsIn Multi-Unit Projects, 1990-2014*
21
.4%
23
.1%
21
.4%
20
.6%
21
.5%
20
.6%
20
.3%
18
.9%
17
.7%
17
.0%
18
.6%
22
.8% 31
.3%
19
.7%
19
.7% 2
9.3
%
31
.4%
33
.3%
35
.8%
20
.5%
17
.7%
12
.6%
14
.2%
17
.1%25
.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14*
*through July 2014 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Insurance Information Institute.
For the U.S. as a whole, the trend toward multi-unit housing projects (vs. single-unit homes) is recent. Commercial insurers with Workers Comp,
Construction risk exposure, and Surety benefit.
A NEW NORMAL?In 4 of the last 6 years, over 30% of housing
unit starts were in multi-unit projects
27
Rental Vacancy Rates, Quarterly, 1990-2014
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.59
0:Q
1
91
:Q1
92
:Q1
93
:Q1
94
:Q1
95
:Q1
96
:Q1
97
:Q1
98
:Q1
99
:Q1
00
:Q1
01
:Q1
02
:Q1
03
:Q1
04
:Q1
05
:Q1
06
:Q1
07
:Q1
08
:Q1
09
:Q1
10
:Q1
11
:Q1
12
:Q1
13
:Q1
14
:Q1
Sources: US Census Bureau, Residential Vacancies & Home Ownership in the Second Quarter of 2014 (released July 29, 2014) and earlier issues; Insurance Information Institute. Next Census Bureau report to be released on October 28, 2014.
Peak vacancy rate 11.1% in
2009:Q3
Before the 2001 recession, rental vacancy rates were 8% or less.We’re close to those levels again. => More multi-unit construction?
27
Percent vacant
Latest vacancy rate was 7.5%
in 2014:Q2
Vacancy rate 10.4% in 2004:Q1
28
16.9
16.5
16.1
13.2
10.4
11.6
12.7
14.4
15.5 16
.3 16.7
16.9
16.617
.117.5
17.8
17.4
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14F 15F
(Millions of Units)
Auto/Light Truck Sales, 1999-2015F
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 8/14 issue (forecasts); Insurance Information Institute.
Yearly car/light truck sales will keep rising, in part replacing cars that were held onto in 2008-12. New vehicles will generate more physical
damage insurance coverage but will be more expensive to repair.PP Auto premium might grow by 6%.
It seems likely that we’re back to new vehicle sales
levels last seen pre-recession
29
Auto Loans and other NonrevolvingCredit Outstanding, 1990–2014*
Note: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns. *Seasonally adjusted; Latest data is for June 2014, preliminarySources: Federal Reserve at http://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/Download.aspx?rel=G19&series=8ee7aa36107a130bcc862d44824a3b86&lastObs=&from=&to=&filetype=csv&label=include&layout=seriescolumn&type=package National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institutes.
$500
$750
$1,000
$1,250
$1,500
$1,750
$2,000
$2,250
$2,500
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
No growth in outstanding nonrevolving credit for
three years
29
$ Billions
Spurt began in Dec. 2010
Outstanding nonrevolving credit
grew by 7.8% in 2013
30
Something Unusual is Happening:Miles Driven*, 1990–2014
*Moving 12-month total. The latest data is for July 2014. Note: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns..Sources: Federal Highway Administration (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/tvtw/tvtpage.cfm ); National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute.
Billions
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
A record: miles driven has been below the prior peak for 80
straight months (through June 2014). Previous record was in the early 1980s (39 months)
Miles Driven Growth per 5-Yr Span1997 vs. 1992: 13.9%2002 vs. 1997: 11.5%2007 vs. 2002: 6.1%2012 vs. 2007: -3.0%
Some of the growth in miles driven is due to population growth: 1997 vs. 1992: +5.1%2002 vs. 1997: +7.4%2007 vs. 2002: +4.7%2012 vs. 2007: +3.4%
32
Index of Total Industrial Production:*A New Peak in July 2014
*Monthly, seasonally adjusted, through July 2014 (which is preliminary). Index based on year 2007 = 100Sources: Federal Reserve Board at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/ipdisk/ip_sa.txt . National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute.
55
65
75
85
95
105
1/31
/19
90
1/31
/19
91
1/31
/19
92
1/31
/19
93
1/31
/19
94
1/31
/19
95
1/31
/19
96
1/31
/19
97
1/31
/19
98
1/31
/19
99
1/31
/20
00
1/31
/20
01
1/31
/20
02
1/31
/20
03
1/31
/20
04
1/31
/20
05
1/31
/20
06
1/31
/20
07
1/31
/20
08
1/31
/20
09
1/31
/20
10
1/31
/20
11
1/30
/20
12
1/31
/20
13
1/31
/20
14
Recession
Peak at 100.82 in December 2007 (officially the 1st
month of the Great Recession)
Insurance exposures for industrial production will continue growing in 2014, and commercial insurance premium volume with them.
32
July 2014 Index at 103.9,
a new peak
Many economists expect business
investment to rise in 2014, 2015,
and 2016
33
Private Sector Business Starts:1993:Q2 – 2013:Q4* As Strong as Ever?
175
185
173
182 18
719
318
4 189
189
185 18
819
519
119
9 204
203
195
196
195
206
206
200
189
199
206
206
199
213
204 20
920
020
620
420
419
420
4 208
199
193
191 19
320
020
720
320
921
020
921
6 221
221
220
221
210
221
214
206
216
208
207
201
191
188
172 17
716
918
317
5 179
188
200
189 19
219
8 202
201
197 20
120
122
621
521
4
201
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
93:Q
2
94:Q
1
95:Q
1
96:Q
1
97:Q
1
98:Q
1
99:Q
1
00:Q
1
01:Q
1
02:Q
1
03:Q
1
04:Q
1
05:Q
1
06:Q
1
07:Q
1
08:Q
1
09:Q
1
10:Q
1
11:Q
1
12:Q
1
13:Q
1
*Data posted Jul 30, 2014, the latest available; a classification change in 2013:Q1 resulted in a report of 578,000 businesses started in that quarter. Seasonally adjusted. **2013 number assumes 1st quarter equals average of second-through-fourth quartersSources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.t08.htm. NBER (recession dates)
Thousands
Business Starts2006: 861,0002007: 844,0002008: 787,0002009: 701,000 2010: 742,000 2011: 781,0002012: 800,0002013: 870,000**
33
Recessions in orange 2013:Q1 578,000
business starts*
34
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
Dollar Value* of Manufacturers’ Shipments Monthly, January 1992—June 2014
*seasonally adjusted; June 2014 is preliminary; data published July 25, 2014.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/
Monthly shipments in November 2013 exceeded the pre-crisis (July 2008) peak; December 2013, January 2014, and February 2014 slipped a bit.
March 2014, then April, then May, then June 2014 (prelim.) set new record highs.
$ Millions
34
The value of Manufacturing Shipments in June 2014 was $499.8B—a new record high.
35
Nonfarm Payroll (Wages and Salaries):Quarterly, 2005–2014:Q2
Note: Recession indicated by gray shaded column. Data are seasonally adjusted annual rates.Sources: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WASCUR; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute.
Billions
$5,500
$5,750
$6,000
$6,250
$6,500
$6,750
$7,000
$7,250
$7,500
$7,75005
:Q1
05:Q
205
:Q3
05:Q
406
:Q1
06:Q
206
:Q3
06:Q
407
:Q1
07:Q
207
:Q3
07:Q
408
:Q1
08:Q
208
:Q3
08:Q
409
:Q1
09:Q
209
:Q3
09:Q
410
:Q1
10:Q
210
:Q3
10:Q
411
:Q1
11:Q
211
:Q3
11:Q
412
:Q1
12:Q
212
:Q3
12:Q
413
:Q1
13:Q
213
:Q3
13:Q
414
:Q1
14:Q
2
Prior Peak was 2008:Q3 at $6.54 trillion
Latest (2014:Q2) was $7.46 trillion, a
new peak--$1T above 2009 trough
Recent trough (2009:Q1) was $6.23 trillion, down
5.3% from prior peak
35
36
Commercial & Industrial Loans Outstandingat FDIC-Insured Banks, Quarterly, 2006-2014:Q1
$1.1
6$1
.18
$1.2
2
$1.4
4$1
.48
$1.4
9$1
.50
$1.4
9$1
.43
$1.3
7$1
.27
$1.2
1$1
.18
$1.1
7$1
.17
$1.1
8$1
.20
$1.2
4$1
.28 $1
.35
$1.3
7$1
.42
$1.4
5$1
.50
$1.5
2$1
.55
$1.5
7$1
.60
$1.6
1
$1.1
3
$1.2
5$1
.30 $1
.39
$1.0
$1.1
$1.2
$1.3
$1.4
$1.5
$1.6
$1.7
06:Q
1
06:Q
3
07:Q
1
07:Q
3
08:Q
1
08:Q
3
09:Q
1
09:Q
3
10:Q
1
10:Q
3
11:Q
1
11:Q
3
12:Q
1
12:Q
3
13:Q
1
13:Q
3
14:Q
1
Outstanding Commercial Loan Volume Has Been Growing for Over Two Years and Is Now Nearly Back to Early Recession Levels. Bodes Very Well for the Creation of Current and Future Commercial Insurance Exposures
Source: FDIC at http://www2.fdic.gov/qbp/ (Loan Performance spreadsheet); Insurance Information Institute.
$Trillions
Commercial lending plunged by 21.2% ($330B) during the financial crisis and ensuing
period of tight credit
Commercial lending activity exceeds pre-crisis levels (+36.75% or $430B above
mid-2010 trough)
37
Percent of Non-current Commercial & Industrial Loans Outstanding at FDIC-Insured Banks,Quarterly, 2006-2014:Q1
0.70
%0.
74%
0.64
%
0.67
%0.
81%
1.07
%1.
18% 1.
69% 2.
25% 2.
80%
3.57
%3.
43%
3.05
%2.
83%
2.73
%2.
44%
1.89
%1.
65%
1.49
%1.
29%
1.17
%1.
09%
0.98
%0.
88%
0.80
%0.
74%
0.72
%0.
62%
0.60
%
0.71
%
0.63
%0.
62%
0.63
%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
06:Q
106
:Q2
06:Q
306
:Q4
07:Q
107
:Q2
07:Q
307
:Q4
08:Q
108
;Q2
08:Q
308
:Q4
09:Q
109
:Q2
09:Q
309
:Q4
10:Q
110
:Q2
10:Q
310
:Q4
11:Q
111
:Q2
11:Q
311
:Q4
12:Q
112
:Q2
12:Q
312
:Q4
13:Q
113
:Q2
13:Q
313
:Q4
14:Q
1
Non-current loans (those past due 90 days or more or in nonaccrual status) are below even pre-recession levels, fueling bank willingness to lend.
Source: FDIC at http://www2.fdic.gov/qbp/ (Loan Performance spreadsheet); Insurance Information Institute.
Back to “normal” levels of noncurrent industrial
& commercial loans
Recession
Tornados andOther Natural Catastrophes
38
2013 Was a Welcome Respite from the High Catastrophe Losses in Recent Years
2014 Winter Storm Losses Manageable
38
Nu
mb
er
Geophysical (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)
Climatological (temperature extremes, drought, wildfire)
Meteorological (storm)
Hydrological (flood, mass movement)
Natural Disasters in the United States Number of Events (Annual Totals 1980 – 2013)
Source: MR NatCatSERVICE 39
22
19
81
6
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
2013 was the first year since 2005 with fewer
than 150 natural disaster events (it had 128)
40
$1
2.8
$1
1.1
$3
.8
$1
4.5
$1
1.7
$6
.2
$3
5.2
$7
.7 $1
6.5
$3
4.2
$7
4.5
$1
0.7
$7
.6
$2
9.6
$1
1.6
$1
4.6
$3
4.1
$3
5.5
$1
2.9
$9
.1$1
4.2
$4
.9
$8
.1
$3
8.3
$8
.9
$2
6.8
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14*
U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses
*Through 6/30/14.Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01 ($25.9B 2011 dollars). Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B ($15.6B in 2011 dollars.) Sources: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
Longer-term trend is for more costly years.
$9.1 billion in insured CAT
losses through June 30
($ Billions, $ 2013)
40
In 6 of the last 13 years, CAT claims
exceeded $29 billion (in 2012 dollars)
41
Combined Ratio Points Associated with Catastrophe Losses: 1960 – 2013*
*2010s represent 2010-2013.Notes: Private carrier losses only. Excludes loss adjustment expenses and reinsurance reinstatement premiums. Figures are adjusted for losses ultimately paid by foreign insurers and reinsurers.Source: ISO (1960-2011); A.M. Best (2012E) Insurance Information Institute.
0.4
1.2
0.4 0.
8 1.3
0.3
0.4 0.
71.
51.
00.
40.
4 0.7
1.8
1.1
0.6
1.4 2.
01.
3 2.0
0.5
0.5 0.7
3.0
1.2
2.1
8.8
2.3
5.9
3.3
2.8
1.0
3.6
2.9
1.6
5.4
1.6
3.3
3.3
8.1
2.7
1.6
5.0
2.6
3.4
8.7 8.9
3.43.6
0.9
0.1
1.1
1.1
0.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
The catastrophe loss component of private insurer losseshas increased sharply in the last 20 years.
Avg. CAT Loss Component of the Combined Ratio
by Decade
1960s: 1.04 1970s: 0.85 1980s: 1.31 1990s: 3.39 2000s: 3.52 2010s: 6.1E*
Combined Ratio Points
Catastrophe losses as a share of all losses reached
a record high in 2012
44
12 States with Most Growth in Total Value of Insured Coastal Exposure, 2012 vs. 2007$ Billions
Source: AIR Worldwide; I.I.I.
$76.8$78.4$87.9
$280.2
$403.7
$544.4
$69.1$47.7 $35.7 $30.7 $23.5 $21.3
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
Delawar
e
Virgini
a
North
Caroli
na
Alaba
ma
South
Car
olina
Louis
iana
Mas
sach
uset
ts
New J
erse
y
Conne
cticu
t
Texas
Florid
a
New Y
ork
The insured value of all coastal property was $10.6 trillion in 2012,up 20% from $8.9 trillion in 2007, and up 48% from $7.2 trillion in 2004
Texas added $280 billion after
Hurricanes Gustav and Ike in 2008 Alabama added
$36 billion in insured value after Hurricanes Katrina
and Rita
U.S. Tornado Count, EF-1 and Stronger,(through May each year), 1953-2014
45Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/
2014 count was 152, lowest since 2005
Tornado occurrence is very variable
U.S. Tornado Count, 2005-2013
46
Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/.
There were 1,897 tornadoes in the U.S. in 2011—far above average,
but well below 2008’s record
2013 count was the lowest
in a decade
Reports of Severe Weather* in ALthrough Sept 2, 2014
47
*excluding floods, wildfires, droughtsSource: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2014_annual_summary.html#
Almost all of the tornados
are in the northern half of the state
Investment Performance: a Key Driver of Profitability
48
Depressed Yields Influence Underwriting & Pricing
48
49
Net Yield on Insurer Invested Assets, 2007-2014:1H
Sources: NAIC, via SNL Financial; I.I.I.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0% 5.75%5.41%
5.14% 5.24% 5.10% 4.93% 4.87%4.49%
4.20%3.93%
3.73% 3.83% 3.68%3.43%
P/C Insurer net yields to date dropped by 106 basis pointssince year-end 2007.
50
U.S. Treasury 2- and 10-Year Note Yields*: 1990–2014
*Monthly, constant maturity, nominal rates, through August 2014.Sources: Federal Reserve Bank at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm. National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institutes.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
1/31
/19
90
1/31
/19
91
1/31
/19
92
1/31
/19
93
1/31
/19
94
1/31
/19
95
1/31
/19
96
1/31
/19
97
1/31
/19
98
1/31
/19
99
1/31
/20
00
1/31
/20
01
1/31
/20
02
1/31
/20
03
1/31
/20
04
1/31
/20
05
1/31
/20
06
1/31
/20
07
1/31
/20
08
1/31
/20
09
1/31
/20
10
1/31
/20
11
1/30
/20
12
1/31
/20
13
1/31
/20
14
Recession2-Yr Yield10-Yr Yield
Yields on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes have been essentially below 5% for a full decade.
Since roughly 80% of P/C bond/cash investments are in 10-year or shorter durations, most P/C insurer portfolios will have low-yielding bonds for years to come.
U.S. Treasury 10-year note
yields recently “spiked” up
50
Bonds Rated NAIC Quality Category 3-6 as a Percent of Total Bonds, 2003–2013
2.69%
2.10% 2.17%1.98%
3.07% 3.10%
4.07% 3.99%
2.04%2.27%
2.58%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
There are many ways to capture higher yields on bond portfolios.One is to accept greater risk, as measured by NAIC bond ratings.
The ratings range from 1 to 6, with the highest quality rated 1.Even in 2012-13, over 95% of the industry’s bonds were rated 1 or 2.
Sources: SNL Financial; Insurance Information Institute.
From 2006-07 to year-end 2012, the percentage of lower-quality bonds in P/C industry portfolios doubled
Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Gain: 1994–2014:Q11
$35.4
$42.8$47.2
$52.3
$44.4
$36.0
$45.3$48.9
$59.4$55.7
$64.0
$31.7
$39.2
$53.4$56.2$54.2
$58.8
$14.1
$58.0
$51.9$56.9
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05* 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 1314:Q1
Low interest rates in 2013 caused investment income to keep fallingbut realized investment gains were up sharply.
The financial crisis caused investment gains to fall by 50% in 2008.1 Investment gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses.* 2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B; Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
$ Billions
Investment gains in 2013 were the highest in the post-crisis era