Overview of the Model Improvement Plan for the SCAG...

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Data and Tools for Linking Goods Movement, Air Quality, and

Transportation Infrastructure Decisions June 2-3, 2009

Overview of the Model Improvement Plan for the SCAG Heavy-Duty Truck Model

Jonathan NadlerManager, Transportation Modeling, Air Quality & Conformity

Southern California Association of Governments

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Presentation Overview

• SCAG Comprehensive Goods Movement Project

• Background

• SCAG HDT Model– Existing and proposed enhancements

• SCAG Model Enhancements - Looking Forward

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SCAG Comprehensive Goods Movement Project

• Multi-year, $3.9 Million Project

• Policy Analysis for 2012 RTP and Other Planning Studies

• Enhanced HDT Model Primary Analysis Tool for Goods Movement Policy Decisions

• Build Upon Foundations of Previous Planning Efforts– Resolve compatibility and connectivity issues– Detail project definitions/phasing– Refine costs, develop implementation and financing plans

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Project Tasks

Task 1: Administration and ManagementTask 2: Refined Public Outreach StrategyTask 3: Evaluate and Recommend Improvements to the SCAG HDT ModelTask 4: Truck Trip Data Collection and AnalysisTask 5: Needs Assessment of Industrial/Warehouse and Intermodal FacilitiesTask 6: HDT Model Enhancement and Model ValidationTask 7: Evaluation of the Goods Movement Element of the 2008 RTPTask 8: New Technology Alternatives for Line-Haul FreightTask 9: Recommendations for Enhancing Regional Goods Movement SystemTask 10: Environmental Mitigation PlanTask 11: Financing and Implementation PlanTask 12: Final Report

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Background

• SCAG Region

• 2008 Regional Transportation Plan

• Multi-County Goods Movement Action Plan

• Air Quality Planning

SCAG Region

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Ventura Los Angeles

Orange

Imperial

Riverside

San Bernardino

38,000 sq. miles 6 counties 189 cities 18+ million people, 24 million by 2035

SCAG Region

SCAG 2008 Regional Transportation Plan

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$531.5 billion(nominal dollars)

2008 RTP: A Multi-Billion, Multi-Modal Plan

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Explosive Growth in Goods MovementExplosive Growth in Goods Movement

14.214.218.318.3

36.036.0

42.542.5

2005 2010 2020 2030

Million TEUs Source: POLA, POLB

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2008 RTP: Moving Freight Faster and Cleaner

Additional Rail Track Capacity

Locomotive Engine Upgrades

Grade Separation Projects

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Dedicated Lanes for Clean Technology Trucks

Constrained RTPI-710

Strategic RTPEast-West Corridor and I-15

2008 RTP: Moving Freight Faster and Cleaner

Multi-County Goods Movement Action Plan

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• Master Plan for Goods Movement in Southern California– Guidance for State, regional, and local transportation plans – Inform local land use decision-making

• Core Mandates– Environmental - avoid, reduce, mitigate environmental, community,

and health impacts– Mobility - promote the safe and efficient movement of all modes of

transportation modes and reduce congestion– Economy - ensure the economic well-being of the region and State– Funding – secure the Region’s fair share of public and private funds

for investment in the freight transportation system

• Strategy: Simultaneous Mitigation, Capacity, Investment

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• MCGMAP Partners– Caltrans Districts 7, 8, 11, & 12– Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority– Orange County Transportation Authority– Riverside County Transportation Commission– Ventura County Transportation Commission– San Bernardino Association of Governments– San Diego Association of Governments– Southern California Association of Governments

Air Quality Planning

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Ventura

Los Angeles

Orange

Imperial

Riverside

San Bernardino

South Central

Coast Air Basin

South Coast Air

Basin

Mojave Desert Air Basin

Salton Sea Air Basin

4 Air Basins

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South Central

Coast Air Basin

South Coast Air

Basin


Salton Sea Air Basin

Ventura County

APCD

Imperial County APCD

Antelope Valley AQMD

South Coast AQMD

Mojave Desert AQMD

5 Air Districts

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Ventura

Los Angeles

Orange

Imperial

Riverside

San BernardinoSouth Coast Air Basin

Ventura County

Portion of SCCAB

Imperial Valley Portion of SSABFederal Ozone Non-Attainment Areas

Coachella Valley

Portion of SSAB

Western Portion of


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Ventura

Los Angeles

Orange

Imperial

Riverside

San BernardinoSouth

Coast Air Basin

Imperial Valley Portion of Salton Sea

Air Basin

Coachella Valley Portion of SSAB

San Bernardino County Portion of Mojave Desert Air

Basin

Searles Valley

Portion of MDAB

Federal PM10 Non-Attainment Areas

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Ventura

Los Angeles

Orange

Imperial

Riverside

San BernardinoSouth

Coast Air Basin

Federal PM2.5 Non-Attainment AreasImperial Valley Portion of

SSAB

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Ventura

Los Angeles

Orange

Imperial

Riverside

San BernardinoSouth

Coast Air Basin

Federal CO Maintenance Area

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Ventura

Los Angeles

Orange

Imperial

Riverside

San BernardinoSouth

Coast Air Basin

Federal NO2 Maintenance Area

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• Socio-economic data for emissions inventories

• Transportation model output data: – emissions inventories and

photochemical modeling (SCAQMD)

– on-road emission factors (ARB)

• Transportation strategy portion of AQMP, including TCMs

SCAG SCAG Input to Input to

South South Coast Coast AQMPAQMP


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• Transportation model output and socio-economic data and other relevant data as needed

• SCAQMD performs air quality modeling for the region– ARB uses SCAG transportation

model outputs and SCAQMD modeling to support local air districts’ AQMP development

SCAG Input to

Other Local

AQMPs

SCAG SCAG Input to Input to

Other Other Local Local

AQMPsAQMPs


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Air Quality Challenges

of all Americans exposed to PM2.5 above federal standard live in the SCAG region

52%

of total reductions to achieve So. Coast ozone standard from long-term (“black box”) control measures

43%

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Transportation Conformity

• Regional Emissions Analyses– All on-road emissions in each non-attainment area for

all milestone years– Model validation and data requirements

• Hot Spot Analyses– Interagency consultation for projects with PM impacts– Main concern is diesel emissions from HDT

SCAG Heavy Duty Truck Model

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HDT Model Enhancement Project

• Policy Planning

• HDT Model Improvement Plan

• Schedule

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Policy Planning

• Port Access Improvements• Rail Investments• Clean Technology Truck Lanes• Alternative Technology Goods Movement Systems• Freight Facility Development and Land Use Strategies• Economic Impact Analysis• Operational Strategies (Port and Highway)• Air Quality/Conformity Analyses

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Policy Planning (cont.)

• Better understanding of international versus domestic freight activities

• Account for local distribution and service truck activity accurately at regional scale

• Better understanding of secondary and tertiary port trips and ability to link to warehousing analysis

• Consider land use policy when looking at warehousing projections and resulting truck traffic

• Understand market needs when analyzing alternative goods movement technology systems

• Understand which industries benefit from improvements

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HDT Model Enhancement Plan

• Existing HDT Model

• Proposed HDT Model Enhancements

• Data Collection

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Existing HDT Model - Key Features

• Three Truck Classes – correspond to weight classes used in EMFAC

• External Model – commodity flows converted to truck trips and disaggregated to transp. analysis zones (TAZs)

• Internal Model – trip rates by land use and gravity model

• Special Generator Models – ports and air cargo

• Multi-step, iterative process – similar to SCAG’s Regional Transportation Demand Model for passenger vehicles

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Existing HDT Model - Overview

InputsInputs ModelsModels OutputsOutputs

• Land Use Data• SED Data• Trip Rates• Trip Distance

• Land Use Data• SED Data• Trip Rates• Trip Distance

• Commodity Flow Data

• Land Use Data• SED Data• Payload Factors

• Commodity Flow Data

• Land Use Data• SED Data• Payload Factors

• Quick Trip Generation Outputs

• Trip Interchange Allocations

• Port to SCAG Zone Equivalency

• Quick Trip Generation Outputs

• Trip Interchange Allocations

• Port to SCAG Zone Equivalency

Internal HDT Model• Trip Generation: 8 Land Uses

• P and A Models: Warehouse HHDT

• Trip Distribution: 3 GVW

• Gravity Model: Warehouse HHDT

Internal HDT Model• Trip Generation: 8 Land Uses

• P and A Models: Warehouse HHDT

• Trip Distribution: 3 GVW

• Gravity Model: Warehouse HHDT

External HDT Model• Commodity Flow Allocator to TAZ

• Commodity Flow Tons to Trips Convertor

External HDT Model• Commodity Flow Allocator to TAZ

• Commodity Flow Tons to Trips Convertor

Assignment Model• PCE FactorsAssignment Model• PCE Factors

Daily HDT Trip Tables

• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table

Daily HDT Trip Tables


Internal HDT Trip Tables


Internal HDT Trip Tables


External HDT Trip Tables


External HDT Trip Tables


Port HDT Trip Tables

• HHDT Port Trip Table

Port HDT Trip Tables

• HHDT Port Trip Table

Time-of-Day Factors

Time-of-Day Factors

AM HDT Trip Tables• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table

AM HDT Trip Tables• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table

MD HDT Trip Tables• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table

MD HDT Trip Tables• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table

PM HDT Trip Tables• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table

PM HDT Trip Tables• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table

NT HDT Trip Tables• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table

NT HDT Trip Tables• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table

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Process for Assessing Modeling Enhancements (prepared by consultant to inform proposed model enhancement plan)

Truck volumes and speeds on existing goods movement and port access corridors

Relationship between travel times and costs

International cargo volumes/port truck/all truck trips by corridor (including secondary trips)

Commodity/industry usage (tonnage/value/trips) by corridor

Time-of-day truck traffic response

Truck trip generation and distribution

Route choice response to pricing

Truck volumes on new roadway alignments

Logistics system response to changes in highway system performance and land use

Truck vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by truck class, county, and air basin

Vehicle delay at grade crossings

Port

Acce

ssIm

prov

emen

ts

Truc

k Lan

es

Rail

Inve

stm

ents

Alte

rnat

iveTe

chno

logi

es

Air Q

ualit

y

Econ

omic

Impa

ctFr

eight

Facil

ities

Oper

atio

nal

Stra

tegi

es

Low Medium Medium - High or High - Medium High

Left semi-circle represents risk, and the right semi-circle represents cost

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Proposed Model Enhancements (still under discussion; subject to change)

External Trip Gen./Dist. Model

• Update Exogenous Commodity Flow (CF) Data With TRANSEARCH CF Data • Update CF Conversion to Daily Trip Tables

External Trip Gen./Dist. Model

• Update Exogenous Commodity Flow (CF) Data With TRANSEARCH CF Data • Update CF Conversion to Daily Trip Tables

Internal Trip Generation

• Update Rates

Internal Trip Generation

• Update Rates

Port Trip Generation

• Update Quick Trip

• Obtain Quick Trip for SCAG

Port Trip Generation

• Update Quick Trip

• Obtain Quick Trip for SCAG

Intermodal Trip Gen./Dist.

• Update Rail Trip Tables

Intermodal Trip Gen./Dist.

• Update Rail Trip Tables

Port Secondary Trip Gen./Dist.

• Add Secondary Trips Based on Supply Chain Flows

Port Secondary Trip Gen./Dist.

• Add Secondary Trips Based on Supply Chain Flows

Internal Trip Distribution

• Add LU Interchange Feature

• Est. New Gravity Models

Internal Trip Distribution

• Add LU Interchange Feature

• Est. New Gravity Models

Multiclass Assignment

• Separate Port Trips

• Speed Post-Processor

• Update Time-of-Day Fctrs.

Multiclass Assignment

• Separate Port Trips

• Speed Post-Processor

• Update Time-of-Day Fctrs.

PCE Conversion

• Implement Variable PCE Factors in TransCAD

• Apply New Lookup Values

PCE Conversion

• Implement Variable PCE Factors in TransCAD

• Apply New Lookup Values

Port and Modal Elasticity Model Inputs

Update Module

Update Data

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Data Collection Needs

• Internal Model Data– Trip generation– Trip distribution– Traffic assignment

• Special Generator Model Data– Transload and port-related secondary truck trips – Intermodal terminal truck trips

• External Model Data– Commodity flow data– Other model data inputs (travel cost/value of time and toll

network data)

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Types of Data

• Establishment Surveys

• Existing GPS Data from Vendors

• GPS Data from Device Deployment

• Supply Chain Surveys

• Traffic Counts

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Project Schedule

TasksPhase I D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M ATask 1: Administration / ManagementTask 2: Public OutreachTask 3: Eval & Recommend Improvements HDTTask 4: Truck Trip Data Collection, SurveysTask 5: Warehouse / Industrial Needs Task 6: HDT Model Enhancement and ValidationPhase IITask 7: RTP Goods Movement EvaluationTask 8: Alternative TechnologiesTask 9: Recommendations for Regional SystemTask 10: Environmental Mitigation PlanTask 11: Financing/ Implementation PlanTask 12: Final Report

PHASE I PHASE II2008 2009 2010

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SCAG Model Enhancements - Looking Forward

• Enhancements to Existing Transportation Demand Model– Mode choice, highway/transit networks, pricing

sensitivities, TransCAD, etc.

• New Tools Development– Activity-based model– Land use model– Scenario planning tools (for local land use scenario

planning)

• RTP Modeling Guidelines Update– SB375

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Contacts

• Guoxiong Huang (Modeling)[email protected]

• Annie [email protected]

• Jonathan [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



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