Overview of the Atlantic Canada seafood industry ... · Canada seafood industry: structure,...

49
Overview of the Atlantic Canada seafood industry: structure, markets, marketing Overview of the Atlantic Canada seafood industry: structure, markets, marketing Moncton February 23, 2007 Moncton February 23, 2007

Transcript of Overview of the Atlantic Canada seafood industry ... · Canada seafood industry: structure,...

Page 1: Overview of the Atlantic Canada seafood industry ... · Canada seafood industry: structure, markets, marketing Moncton February 23, 2007. HalifaxHalifax Gardner PinfoldGardner Pinfold

Overview of the Atlantic Canada seafood industry:

structure, markets, marketing

Overview of the Atlantic Canada seafood industry:

structure, markets, marketing

MonctonFebruary 23, 2007

MonctonFebruary 23, 2007

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Atlantic seafood industry worth $3 billionAtlantic seafood industry worth $3 billion• New Brunswick

production from capture fisheries and marine aquaculture worth about $1 billion, that’s 25% of the Canadian total

• New Brunswick production from capture fisheries and marine aquaculture worth about $1 billion, that’s 25% of the Canadian total

Value of seafood exports from the Atlantic Provinces and

Quˇbec, 2006

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Value of exports

$000

sNSNBPEQUNL

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Focus: how derive more valueFocus: how derive more value

• Getting the structure right: optimal harvesting and processing structure with a common aim of producing high quality products to diversified markets

• Improving the terms of trade: a more coordinated approach to limit the increasing market power of distributors

• Getting to the right market: product & market development to reduce exposure to commodity conditions

• Establishing the brand: healthy products/ clean environment/ sustainable harvesting practices

• Getting the structure right: optimal harvesting and processing structure with a common aim of producing high quality products to diversified markets

• Improving the terms of trade: a more coordinated approach to limit the increasing market power of distributors

• Getting to the right market: product & market development to reduce exposure to commodity conditions

• Establishing the brand: healthy products/ clean environment/ sustainable harvesting practices

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TopicsTopics

• Industry overview• Global supply and demand• Resource status• Harvesting• Production and markets• Issues and options• Sector performance & challenges

• Industry overview• Global supply and demand• Resource status• Harvesting• Production and markets• Issues and options• Sector performance & challenges

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Crab: key statisticsCrab: key statistics

• Crab 2006– $280 million landings– $400 million exports– 4,000 vessels– 82 plants– 22,000 employed

• Crab 2006– $280 million landings– $400 million exports– 4,000 vessels– 82 plants– 22,000 employed

– Trends• Resource• Landings• Price• Export

– Outlook 2007

– Trends• Resource• Landings• Price• Export

– Outlook 2007

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Shrimp: key statisticsShrimp: key statistics

• Shrimp 2005– $240 million landings– $485 million export– 470/13 vessels– 20 plants– 6,200 employed

• Shrimp 2005– $240 million landings– $485 million export– 470/13 vessels– 20 plants– 6,200 employed

• Trends– Resource– Landings– Price– Export

– Outlook 2007

• Trends– Resource– Landings– Price– Export

– Outlook 2007

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Lobster: key statisticsLobster: key statistics

• Lobster 2005– $600 million landings– $1,000 million export– 9,770 vessels– 50 plants– 35,000 employed

• Lobster 2005– $600 million landings– $1,000 million export– 9,770 vessels– 50 plants– 35,000 employed

• Trends– Resource– Landings– Price– Export

– Outlook 2007

• Trends– Resource– Landings– Price– Export

– Outlook 2007

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Key speciesKey species

• $1.6 billion total landed value

• Three species dominate: lobster, crab & shrimp

• Lobster: decline & recovery

• Crab: cyclical growth & price instability

• Shrimp: steady revenue decline

• $1.6 billion total landed value

• Three species dominate: lobster, crab & shrimp

• Lobster: decline & recovery

• Crab: cyclical growth & price instability

• Shrimp: steady revenue decline

Atlantic fisheries, landed value by species ($000)

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

LobsterCrabShrimpScallopGroundfish

Source: DFO

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TopicsTopics

• Industry overview• Global supply and demand• Resource status• Harvesting• Production and markets• Issues and options• Sector performance

• Industry overview• Global supply and demand• Resource status• Harvesting• Production and markets• Issues and options• Sector performance

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Global supply and demandGlobal supply and demand

• Snow crab supply– Steady at 150-170,000 t– Canada produces 65%– Five others produce 35%– Alaska source of instability– Substitutes influence prices

• Snow crab demand– Two markets: US & Japan– Food service & retail

commodity in U.S.– Mainly food service in

Japan (sushi & sections)– Demand price sensitive

• Snow crab supply– Steady at 150-170,000 t– Canada produces 65%– Five others produce 35%– Alaska source of instability– Substitutes influence prices

• Snow crab demand– Two markets: US & Japan– Food service & retail

commodity in U.S.– Mainly food service in

Japan (sushi & sections)– Demand price sensitive

• Coldwater shrimp supply– Up 50% to 450,000 t since ‘98– Canada produces 40%– Three others produce 45%– Competing with 65 species– 7% of global supply 6 MM t

• Coldwater shrimp demand– Two markets: US & EU (UK) for

C&P - mainly retail– Japan & China for shell-on

frozen - retail & restaurant– Demand not keeping up with

supply

• Coldwater shrimp supply– Up 50% to 450,000 t since ‘98– Canada produces 40%– Three others produce 45%– Competing with 65 species– 7% of global supply 6 MM t

• Coldwater shrimp demand– Two markets: US & EU (UK) for

C&P - mainly retail– Japan & China for shell-on

frozen - retail & restaurant– Demand not keeping up with

supply

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Global supply and demand:lobster and groundfishGlobal supply and demand:lobster and groundfish• Lobster supply

– Steady at 80-90,000 t– Canada produces 55%– U.S. produces 45%– High exploitation rate– Canada processes 50-70%

of U.S. catch• Lobster demand

– U.S. consumes over 80% of total supply

– Live & processed at 50% each

– Demand is price sensitive

• Lobster supply– Steady at 80-90,000 t– Canada produces 55%– U.S. produces 45%– High exploitation rate– Canada processes 50-70%

of U.S. catch• Lobster demand

– U.S. consumes over 80% of total supply

– Live & processed at 50% each

– Demand is price sensitive

• Groundfish supply– Declined from 12 to 7

million tonnes– Cod/pollock main species– Farmed finfish has

substituted (tilapia/salmon)• Groundfish demand

– U.S. & EU major markets– Limited growth in frozen– Fresh segment exhibits

strongest growth

• Groundfish supply– Declined from 12 to 7

million tonnes– Cod/pollock main species– Farmed finfish has

substituted (tilapia/salmon)• Groundfish demand

– U.S. & EU major markets– Limited growth in frozen– Fresh segment exhibits

strongest growth

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Global snow crab supply stableGlobal snow crab supply stableGlobal supply of snow crab, 1990-2005

0

50

100

150

200

250

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

000s

tonn

es

OtherJapanKoreaGreenlandRussiaCanadaAlaska

Source: FAO, GINR, NMFS, DFO

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Coldwater shrimp supply increasingColdwater shrimp supply increasing

Global supply of coldwater shrimp, 1990-2004

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1990 1994 1998 2002

000s

tonn

es OtherIcelandGreenlandNorwayCanada

Source: FAO

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Lobster landings fairly stableLobster landings fairly stable

Lobster landings: Canada and the U.S.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

tonn

es CanUSTotal

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Farmed species substitute for reduced groundfish supplyFarmed species substitute for reduced groundfish supply

Global "whitefish" supply

02468

10121416

1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Source: Groundfish Forum 2005

Groundfish Flatfish Farmed fish

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TopicsTopics

• Industry overview• Global supply and demand• Resource status• Harvesting• Production and markets• Issues and options• Sector performance

• Industry overview• Global supply and demand• Resource status• Harvesting• Production and markets• Issues and options• Sector performance

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Resource status: CanadaResource status: Canada

• Snow crab– Stocks declined most areas– No area has strong

recruitment pulse• Variation by area

– NE NL: long-term prospects uncertain

– S. Gulf: stock in declining phase

– N. Gulf: biomass begins to decline in 2007

– ENS: stocks down recovery possible in 2007

• Snow crab– Stocks declined most areas– No area has strong

recruitment pulse• Variation by area

– NE NL: long-term prospects uncertain

– S. Gulf: stock in declining phase

– N. Gulf: biomass begins to decline in 2007

– ENS: stocks down recovery possible in 2007

• Shrimp– Stocks stable with uncertainty– Outlook positive for major

stocks • Variation by area

– NE NL: stocks stable with positive/uncertain outlook & some decline in average size

– Gulf/Estuary: stocks strong but decline to long-term average biomass in 2006 & beyond

– ENS: unstable with decline in average size and biomass

• Shrimp– Stocks stable with uncertainty– Outlook positive for major

stocks • Variation by area

– NE NL: stocks stable with positive/uncertain outlook & some decline in average size

– Gulf/Estuary: stocks strong but decline to long-term average biomass in 2006 & beyond

– ENS: unstable with decline in average size and biomass

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Resource status: CanadaResource status: Canada

• Lobster– Mostly stable, declines

in some areas– No area shows strong

growth• Variation by area

– Northern gulf: stable– Southern Gulf: decline– Newfoundland: stable– Nova Scotia: decline

• Lobster– Mostly stable, declines

in some areas– No area shows strong

growth• Variation by area

– Northern gulf: stable– Southern Gulf: decline– Newfoundland: stable– Nova Scotia: decline

• Groundfish– No recovery most areas– Science unable to predict

when stocks may recover

• Variation by area– Some recovery in 3Ps cod,

Georges Bank haddock– Small redfish fisheries off

NL and NS – Turbot fisheries in Gulf and

off NL

• Groundfish– No recovery most areas– Science unable to predict

when stocks may recover

• Variation by area– Some recovery in 3Ps cod,

Georges Bank haddock– Small redfish fisheries off

NL and NS – Turbot fisheries in Gulf and

off NL

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TopicsTopics

• Industry overview• Global supply and demand• Resource status• Harvest• Production and markets• Issues and options• Sector performance

• Industry overview• Global supply and demand• Resource status• Harvest• Production and markets• Issues and options• Sector performance

Page 20: Overview of the Atlantic Canada seafood industry ... · Canada seafood industry: structure, markets, marketing Moncton February 23, 2007. HalifaxHalifax Gardner PinfoldGardner Pinfold

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Crab landings reflect stock statusCrab landings reflect stock status

• Total down to 94,000 t in 2005 from 2003 peak of 106,800 t

• NL lands 47%, down from peak of 73% in 1999

• Gulf lands 46%• NS (SS) lands

7%

• Total down to 94,000 t in 2005 from 2003 peak of 106,800 t

• NL lands 47%, down from peak of 73% in 1999

• Gulf lands 46%• NS (SS) lands

7%

Crab landings by province

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

tonn

es

NL NB NS QC PESource: DFO

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Shrimp landings reflect stocks & market price Shrimp landings reflect stocks & market price • 80% of catch in

northeast NL waters• NL landings up three-

fold since 1997• Other provinces remain

steady or slight decline since 2003

• Low price make the shrimp fishery a marginal or losing proposition

• 80% of catch in northeast NL waters

• NL landings up three-fold since 1997

• Other provinces remain steady or slight decline since 2003

• Low price make the shrimp fishery a marginal or losing proposition

Atlantic Shrimp landings by province

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Source: DFONL NS Que NB

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Lobster landings declining in most areasLobster landings declining in most areas• Landings down

by 15% from 2001 peak

• QC fairly stable• Major decline in

Northumberland Strait

• Landings down by 15% from 2001 peak

• QC fairly stable• Major decline in

Northumberland Strait

Lobster landings by province

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

Source: DFO

NSNBPEIQCNL

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Crab shore prices at historic lowsCrab shore prices at historic lows

• Peaked in 2004 with increase in Japanese & U.S. demand

• Dropped sharply in 2005 as customers resisted high distributor prices

• Stayed low in 2006 as inventories cleared

• Peaked in 2004 with increase in Japanese & U.S. demand

• Dropped sharply in 2005 as customers resisted high distributor prices

• Stayed low in 2006 as inventories cleared

Average snow crab shore prices

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00

1990 1995 2000 2005

$/lb

NSNBPEQCNL

Source: DFO

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Crab prices sensitive to supplyCrab prices sensitive to supply

• Swings: high of US$4.50/lb and low of US$2.25/lb

• Drop in 2005 due to speculation

• By mid-2006 price down to US$2.75

• Upturn in Alaska landings may have played small role

• Swings: high of US$4.50/lb and low of US$2.25/lb

• Drop in 2005 due to speculation

• By mid-2006 price down to US$2.75

• Upturn in Alaska landings may have played small role

Crab landings and Canadian export price

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000160,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

tonn

es

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

US$

/kg

Alaska landings (t) Canadian landings (t)Can. export price ($/kg)

Source: ADF&G, DFO, NMFS

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Crab price down by 50% since 2004Crab price down by 50% since 2004

• 35% due to price drop

• 15% due to exchange rate

• US$ price likely to strengthen in 2007, but could be partially offset by weakening economy

• 35% due to price drop

• 15% due to exchange rate

• US$ price likely to strengthen in 2007, but could be partially offset by weakening economy

Monthly U.S. snow crab import price

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06

$/kg

US$ price CAN$ priceSource: NMFS and Bank of Canada

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Shrimp shore price at historic lowsShrimp shore price at historic lows

• Shore price down by 50% over decade as global supply exceeds demand

• Shore price approaches break-even level for harvesters

• Larger shrimp and stronger competition explain higher Québec price

• Shore price down by 50% over decade as global supply exceeds demand

• Shore price approaches break-even level for harvesters

• Larger shrimp and stronger competition explain higher Québec price

Inshore shrimp shore prices, 1990-2005

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Source: DFO

NLNBQC

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Shrimp price drop worsened by exchange rateShrimp price drop worsened by exchange rate• Price decline

reflects supply > demand & availability of substitutes

• US$ price down 33% since 1995

• Stronger dollar means CDN$ price down 50% since 1995

• Price decline reflects supply > demand & availability of substitutes

• US$ price down 33% since 1995

• Stronger dollar means CDN$ price down 50% since 1995

Monthly export price of C&P shrimp to the U.S.

0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.00

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Source: NMFSU.S.$ price CAN$ price

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Lobster market weakening, exchange rate cuts revenuesLobster market weakening, exchange rate cuts revenues• US$ price starting

to show some weakness after several years of steady growth

• CAN$ price shows downward trend since 2003

• US$ price starting to show some weakness after several years of steady growth

• CAN$ price shows downward trend since 2003

Monthly average export price of live lobster to the U.S.

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

jan jul jan jul jan jul jan jul jan jul

$/lb

CAN$/kgUS$/kg

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce and Bank of Canada

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

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Lobster shore price closely tracks U.S. marketLobster shore price closely tracks U.S. market• Price differences

by province reflect mainly size and product form

• Strong competition in NS and QC means low margins for shippers

• Price differences by province reflect mainly size and product form

• Strong competition in NS and QC means low margins for shippers

Average shore price of lobster by province

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

1990 1995 2000 2005

Source: MPO

NSNBPEIQCNL

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Salmon market gains strengthSalmon market gains strength

• Salmon suffers long slide as supply exceeds demand

• Proximity to market and direct sales mean price premium for NB and BC

• Price began to turn the corner for Canadian producers in 2006 as suppliers to the U.S. shifted to EU in response to higher returns

• Salmon suffers long slide as supply exceeds demand

• Proximity to market and direct sales mean price premium for NB and BC

• Price began to turn the corner for Canadian producers in 2006 as suppliers to the U.S. shifted to EU in response to higher returns

U.S. import price, Atlantic salmon whole dressed,

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

U.S

. $/k

g NorwayChileCanada

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Exchange rate cuts salmon pricesExchange rate cuts salmon prices

• Steady 1990s price decline offset by rising exchange rate

• Weakening U.S. dollar causes sharp drop in CAN $ price after 2002

• Steady 1990s price decline offset by rising exchange rate

• Weakening U.S. dollar causes sharp drop in CAN $ price after 2002

Annual average price of U.S. imports of Canadian whole dressed salmon

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

$/kg US $/kg

CAN $/kg

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TopicsTopics

• Industry overview• Global supply and demand• Resource status• Crab & shrimp harvest• Production and markets• Issues and options• Sector performance

• Industry overview• Global supply and demand• Resource status• Crab & shrimp harvest• Production and markets• Issues and options• Sector performance

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Crab exported to two markets:United States & JapanCrab exported to two markets:United States & Japan• $860 million

industry in 2004 drops to $600 million in 2005 and about $400 million in 2006

• Exports to China are processed for re-export to Japan

• $860 million industry in 2004 drops to $600 million in 2005 and about $400 million in 2006

• Exports to China are processed for re-export to Japan

Atlantic Canada total crab exports by market

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

$ m

illio

ns U.S.JapanChinaTotal

Source: Statistics Canada

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Crab: market and cash driven exportCrab: market and cash driven export

• Sold to distributors who take position in market

• Export pattern reflects commodity product & consumption pattern

• Low margins limit ability to inventory/ brand and develop market

• Sold to distributors who take position in market

• Export pattern reflects commodity product & consumption pattern

• Low margins limit ability to inventory/ brand and develop market

Crab landings and exports by month, 2005

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Source: DFO and NMFS

exports landings

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C&P shrimp exports by countryC&P shrimp exports by country

• $136 million industry in 2005

• US is main market (55%) despite adverse exchange

• C&P shrimp faces 20% tariff entering EU

• $136 million industry in 2005

• US is main market (55%) despite adverse exchange

• C&P shrimp faces 20% tariff entering EU

Atlanic shrimp C&P exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1996 1999 2002 2005

mill

ions

de

dolla

rs

United StatesUnited KingdomDenmarkOthers

Source: Statistics Canada

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Shrimp mainly a retail productShrimp mainly a retail product

• Sold to customers on as needed basis

• Demand far less seasonal than crab

• Imposes high carrying costs

• Competes with many other shrimp species

• Sold to customers on as needed basis

• Demand far less seasonal than crab

• Imposes high carrying costs

• Competes with many other shrimp species

Shrimp landings and C&P exports by month, 2004 & 2005

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Jan

Mar Mai Jul

Sep NovJa

nMar Mai Ju

lSep Nov

Source: DFO and Statistics Canada

NL Gulf Atlantic exports

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Lobster exports market and supply drivenLobster exports market and supply driven• NB accounts for

60% of Canadian processed lobster exports

• Over 90% of NB exports goes to the U.S.

• Processing sector relies heavily on imports from U.S.

• NB accounts for 60% of Canadian processed lobster exports

• Over 90% of NB exports goes to the U.S.

• Processing sector relies heavily on imports from U.S.

New Brunswick monthly lobster exports, 2005-2006

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

$ m

illio

ns meatfrozenlive

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TopicsTopics

• Industry overview• Global supply and demand• Resource status• Crab & shrimp harvest• Production and markets• Issues and options• Sector performance

• Industry overview• Global supply and demand• Resource status• Crab & shrimp harvest• Production and markets• Issues and options• Sector performance

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Crab issues: control in hands of marketCrab issues: control in hands of market

• Structured to under-perform: capacity/competition• Limited ability to influence harvest rate & quality• Fragmented. Pressure to sell. Little scope to market

• Processing

• Structured for short seasons: biology/fleet/economics• Poor handling practices, gluts and poor quality• Fleet viability an issue in some areas

• Harvest

• Dependent on distributors in just two markets• Commodity demand: price highly sensitive to supply• Threat of substitutes: Alaska/other crab species

• Markets

• Cyclical abundance• Low period in Gulf - long terms prospects uncertain• Climate unknowns pose threat to sustainability

• Resource

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Crab options: measures to enhance valueCrab options: measures to enhance value

• Eliminate/limit financial support to industry• Promote quality ethic and price/quality relationship• Assess merits of ISO 14000 certification

• Processing

• Stretch season to biological limits using price• Invest in quality: vessels/holding and education• Harvest

• Diversify into new market areas, eg, Europe• Promote alternatives to commodity consumption • Use consolidated/coordinated marketing approach• Consider regional branding

• Markets

• Improve scientific knowledge about the resource• Resist pressure to increase exploitation rates & TACs• Consider certification for eco-label

• Resource

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Shrimp issues: market awash in shrimpShrimp issues: market awash in shrimp

• Overcapitalized/limited ability to influence harvest rate• High inventory carrying costs - distress selling• Weak financial position & limited scope for optimism

• Processing

• Quality: many vessels not designed for shrimp fishery • Poor returns limit scope for fleet upgrading• Harvest

• Concentrated market dependence (C&P/Shell-on)• Supply consistently running ahead of demand• Price weakness will continue/ product characteristics

• Markets

• Stocks stable with some uncertainty• Stocks benefit from ecosystem change• Resource

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Shrimp options: measures to enhance valueShrimp options: measures to enhance value

• Eliminate/limit financial support to industry• Cut capacity from sector, promote 8-month season• Promote product/market development

• Processing

• Extend season to practical limits• Restructure fleet with fewer vessels, better technology• Harvest

• Target new market areas, eg, S. Europe/US/Far East• Continue action to eliminate EU tariff• Develop consolidated marketing/ regional branding

• Markets

• Improve scientific knowledge about the resource• Resist pressure to increase exploitation rates & TACs• MSC/eco-label important for EU market

• Resource

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Lobster issues:Highly competitive industryLobster issues:Highly competitive industry

• Generates low margins: capacity/competition• Relies heavily on imports of U.S. lobster• Need product development in processed sector

• Processing/shipping

• Structured for short seasons: fleet/economics• Good handling practices but highly peaked supply• Strong competition means high shore price

• Harvest

• Dependent on one major market - U.S.• Price sensitive to supply/state of economy• Rising concern from animal rights activists

• Markets

• Overall abundance stable or declining slightly • High exploitation rate in most areas a concern• Unknowns pose threat to sustainability

• Resource

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Lobster optionsmeasures to enhance valueLobster optionsmeasures to enhance value

• Eliminate/limit financial support to industry• Ensure adequate holding capacity to time the market• Promote product/market development

• Processing

• Ensure vessels have best holding methods• Extend fishery over the season• Remove any obstacles to competition at port market

• Harvest

• Diversify into new market areas: EU & Far East• Develop consolidated marketing approach• Market the environment & and optimal quality

• Markets

• Improve scientific knowledge about the resource• Reduce harvesting pressure/exploitation rate• Introduce increased minimum legal size/Eco-label?

• Resource

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TopicsTopics

• Industry overview• Global supply and demand• Resource status• Crab & shrimp harvest• Production and markets• Issues and options• Sector performance

• Industry overview• Global supply and demand• Resource status• Crab & shrimp harvest• Production and markets• Issues and options• Sector performance

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Crab short-term prospectsCrab short-term prospects

• Relatively stable harvest level for near term contributes to price strength

• Short season & glut/quality issues could be worse in 2007 as harvesters try to recover from two bad years

• Market outlook promising for 2007, full recovery may be held back by weak US economy

• Processors continue to be caught between supply-driven harvest and commodity-led demand

• Need to find a way to reduce cash flow pressures to allow focus on product and market development

• Relatively stable harvest level for near term contributes to price strength

• Short season & glut/quality issues could be worse in 2007 as harvesters try to recover from two bad years

• Market outlook promising for 2007, full recovery may be held back by weak US economy

• Processors continue to be caught between supply-driven harvest and commodity-led demand

• Need to find a way to reduce cash flow pressures to allow focus on product and market development

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Shrimp short-term prospectsShrimp short-term prospects

• Limited prospects for price recovery in near term unless supply drops or markets expand

• Weak harvesting and processing returns unless costs are reduced & marketing enhanced

• Improvement in quality/yield tied to more appropriate harvesting technology - difficult to achieve given low prices & poor returns

• Improved returns tied to more disciplined marketing approach and market development in US, Far East and Europe

• Need to focus on optimizing industry structure/capacity to restore financial health to tackle marketing issues

• Limited prospects for price recovery in near term unless supply drops or markets expand

• Weak harvesting and processing returns unless costs are reduced & marketing enhanced

• Improvement in quality/yield tied to more appropriate harvesting technology - difficult to achieve given low prices & poor returns

• Improved returns tied to more disciplined marketing approach and market development in US, Far East and Europe

• Need to focus on optimizing industry structure/capacity to restore financial health to tackle marketing issues

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Lobster: short-term prospectsLobster: short-term prospects

• Decline in supply puts upward pressure on price• Weakening U.S. economy puts downward pressure on

price - key factor for 2007• Processing sector relies heavily on U.S. landings, keeps

upward pressure on price in live market• Expect stable to lower U.S. prices, with some further

weakening of U.S. dollar.• Need to continue optimizing industry structure/capacity

to restore financial health to tackle marketing issues

• Decline in supply puts upward pressure on price• Weakening U.S. economy puts downward pressure on

price - key factor for 2007• Processing sector relies heavily on U.S. landings, keeps

upward pressure on price in live market• Expect stable to lower U.S. prices, with some further

weakening of U.S. dollar.• Need to continue optimizing industry structure/capacity

to restore financial health to tackle marketing issues

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ChallengesChallenges

• Getting the structure right: optimal harvesting and processing structure with a common aim of producing high quality products to diversified markets

• Improving the terms of trade: a more coordinated approach to limit the increasing market power of distributors

• Getting to the right market: product & market development to reduce exposure to commodity conditions

• Establishing the brand: healthy products/ clean environment/ sustainable harvesting practices

• Getting the structure right: optimal harvesting and processing structure with a common aim of producing high quality products to diversified markets

• Improving the terms of trade: a more coordinated approach to limit the increasing market power of distributors

• Getting to the right market: product & market development to reduce exposure to commodity conditions

• Establishing the brand: healthy products/ clean environment/ sustainable harvesting practices