Overview of Scotland’s Productive Capacity
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1 Overview of Scotland’s Productive Capacity Alan Renwick and Andrew Midgley
description
Overview of Scotland’s Productive Capacity. Alan Renwick and Andrew Midgley. Gross Scottish Agricultural Output 2007. Source: RERAD. Capacity constrained by geography. Census 2008. Ten Year Trend in Land-use. Source RERAD Agricultural Statistics. Livestock Ten year Trend. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Overview of Scotland’s Productive Capacity
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Overview of Scotland’s Productive Capacity
Alan Renwick and
Andrew Midgley
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• Gross Scottish Agricultural Output 2007
Source: RERAD
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Capacity constrained by geographyCapacity constrained by geography
Land Use Scotland (m/ha)
Crops, 601,510
Grass, 1,218,170
Rough Grazing, 3,431,930
Total Cattle 1,852,090Total Sheep 7,095,190Total Pigs 435,720
Census 2008
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Ten Year Trend in Land-useTen Year Trend in Land-use
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
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1.1
1.2
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
Ch
an
ge
sin
ce
199
8
Vegetables Soft fruit in the open Combine harvest crops Workforce
Source RERAD Agricultural Statistics
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Livestock Ten year Trend Livestock Ten year Trend
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
Ch
an
ge
sin
ce
19
98
Sheep Cattle Pigs Poultry
Source RERAD Agricultural Statistics
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Spatial variation in declineSpatial variation in decline
Source: Retreat from the Hills – Rural Policy Centre (2008)
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Capacity change?Capacity change?
• In terms of area and livestock numbers Scotland’s agricultural sector has declined quite markedly in last 10 years – Is this a change in capacity?
• Of course need to take account of changes in yield (t/ha, kg meat etc)
• Fewer higher yielding animals could offset decline– True in dairy– Less true in sheep, beef
• Is capability to produce still there?
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Some IssuesSome Issues
• As we are discussing food security increasing capacity in Scotland raises some interesting questions– Capacity to produce food for consumption within
Scotland or elsewhere?– Capacity for production of food or of drink?– What are the trade-offs?
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Capacity, population and tradeCapacity, population and trade
• We already export significant proportions of our produce
• So are we actually over producing for the size of our population?
• We may have the physical capacity to produce more, but whether or not we should depends on the scale being considered– Scotland– UK– EU– World
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Increasing capacity?Increasing capacity?
• Capacity of processors
• Capacity of supply chain
• Limited processing capacity in Scotland
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Quantity and QualityLimited by climate and soil
Vast majority intoDistilling
Import most of ¼m tonnes for milling
Much Scope to change?
Food or Drink?
Source: DTZ
12Feed Use, Malting, Exporter of feed, limited scope for malt exportsimportance of livestock sector
Source: DTZ
Destination of Barley
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Would increasing capacity make Scotland more food secure?Would increasing capacity make Scotland more food secure?
• Scotland’s agricultural sector heavily dependent upon trade– Destination for production of surplus livestock products– Source of supply of products that cannot produce due to
climate (e.g. milling wheat)– Source of considerable revenue from distilling industry
• If food security threatened by inability to trade very different agriculture would have to emerge?
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Increasing capacity: Trade-offsIncreasing capacity: Trade-offs
• We might have capacity to increase production, but higher levels of production are likely to have implications– Biodiversity– Water quality– GHG emissions
• Knock on effects to tourism?
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Increasing capacity: Trade-offsIncreasing capacity: Trade-offs
Measurement of annual flows from agriculture Total +ve (£m) Total -ve (£m)
Annual impacts on society
Landscapes and habitatsLinear featuresBiodiversityRiversLakesBathing WatersEstuariesAbstractionProvision of waste sinkAgricultural wasteTotal annual (income) impacts on society*
£854£2£307...............£35...£1,199
...
...
...£62£27£11£3£62...£8£172
Annual impacts on other sectors
Drinking waterPollution incidentsFloodingSoil erosionTotal impacts on other sectors
...
...
...
...£0
£129£1£234£9£373
Net impacts
Net (measurable) income to society*Impact on other sectorsOverall net impact on income*
£1,027...
£654
...£373...
Measurement of present value costs from air emission Total +ve (£m) Total -ve (£m)
Climate change ... £1,413
Air quality ... £656
Measurable present value costs due to air emissions... £2,069
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Alan Renwick
www.sac.ac.uk/ruralpolicycentre
http://www.sac.ac.uk/ruralpolicycentre/publs/policybriefings/foodsecurity/
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