Overview of global trends

in international migration and urbanization

Sabine Henning

Population Division, DESA

UN Expert Group Meeting on

Sustainable Cities, Human Mobility and International Migration

New York, 7-8 September 2017

International Migration

5

7

15

40

49

56

172

8

9

21

54

75

76

244

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Oceania

Latin America and the Caribbean

Africa

Northern America

Asia

Europe

World

Number of international migrants by region of destination, 2000 and 2015

2015

2000

Nearly 2/3 of all international migrants live in Europe and Asia

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015 Revision. (United Nations database, POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015).

Percentage female among all international migrants, 2015

Women comprise slightly less than half of all international migrants.

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015 Revision. (United Nations database, POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015).

38

45

41

38

40

35

27

39

44

43

42

36

35

29

0 10 20 30 40 50

World

Oceania

Europe

Northern America

Latin America and the Caribbean

Asia

Africa

Median age among international migrants and by region of destination, 2000 and 2015

2015

2000

Median age of international migrants Worldwide was 39 years, compared to 29.6 years for the total population age (years)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015 Revision. (United Nations database, POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015).

1

3

23

26

52

68

2

4

34

37

62

104

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Oceania

Northern America

Africa

Latin America and the Caribbean

Europe

Asia

Number of international migrants by region of origin, 2000 and 2015

2015

2000

Almost half of all international migrants worldwide were born in Asia

Number of migrants (millions)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015 Revision. (United Nations database, POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015).

Number of international migrants by region of origin, 2000 and 2015

In many parts of the World, migration occurs primarily within major areas

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015 Revision. (United Nations database, POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015).

Components of population change - Africa and Europe compared

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1950- 1960

1960- 1970

1970- 1980

1980- 1990

1990- 2000

2000- 2010

2010- 2020

2020- 2030

2030- 2040

2040- 2050

m il

li o

n s

Europe

-30

20

70

120

170

220

270

320

370

420

1950- 1960

1960- 1970

1970- 1980

1980- 1990

1990- 2000

2000- 2010

2010- 2020

2020- 2030

2030- 2040

2040- 2050

m il

li o

n s

Total net population change Net international migration

Natural change

Africa

Net international migration is slowing population decline in Europe – in Africa, it has hardly any effect

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015 Revision. (United Nations database, POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015).

URBANIZATION

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1 9

5 0

1 9

5 5

1 9

6 0

1 9

6 5

1 9

7 0

1 9

7 5

1 9

8 0

1 9

8 5

1 9

9 0

1 9

9 5

2 0

0 0

2 0

0 5

2 0

1 0

2 0

1 5

2 0

2 0

2 0

2 5

2 0

3 0

2 0

3 5

2 0

4 0

2 0

4 5

2 0

5 0

Po p

u la

ti o

n (

b ill

io n

s) Urban and rural population of the world,

1950-2050

Urban

Rural

A majority of the world’s population lives in urban areas

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014): World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision.

2015: 40.4

47.8

73.6 79.8 81.6

70.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean

Northern America Oceania

P ro

p o

rt io

n u

rb an

o f

to ta

l p o

p u

la ti

o n

( p

er c

en t)

Urban and rural population as proportion of total population, 1950-2050

Urbanization has occurred in all regions, but Africa and Asia remain mostly rural

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014): World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision.

1950-2050

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Po p

u la

ti o

n (

b ill

io n

s)

Rural Fewer than 500 000 500 000 to 1 million 1 to 5 million 5 to 10 million 10 million or more

Close to half of the world’s urban population lives in settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants

500,000 -

1 mill.

< 500,000

rural

> 10 mill.

1 – 5 mill.

5 – 10 mill.

World’s population by size class of settlement, 1990-2030

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014): World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990 2016 2030

Po p

u la

ti o

n (

m ill

io n

s) Global urban population by size class of

settlement, 1990-2030

10 mill.

239 cities 21 cities

10 cities

294 cities

558 cities

436 cities

31 cities

41 cities

731 cities 551 cities

45 cities

63 cities

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014): World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision.

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014): World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision.

Note: The designations employed and the presentation of material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Percentage urban and location of urban agglomerations with at least 5000,000 inhabitants, 2014

Growth rates of the world’s cities, 2000-2016

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014): World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision.

Most of the world’s Fastest growing cities are located in Asia and Africa

72

87

72

48

72

100

80

39 46

70

14

34

0 7

0

20

40

60

80

100

World Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the

Caribbean

Northern America

Oceania

Governments with policies or strategies in the past five years to encourage population redistribution, 2015

Reduce rural to urban migration

Decentralize large urban centres to smaller urban, suburban or rural areas

The majority of countries have policies in place to reduce rural to urban migration

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2016): World Population Policies Database: The 2015 Revision

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014): World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision; Gu and others (2015). Risk of exposure a