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Overview of Financial Valuation Models - CFA Society Chicago · Prepared for the CFA Society...
Transcript of Overview of Financial Valuation Models - CFA Society Chicago · Prepared for the CFA Society...
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Overview of Financial Valuation Models
Prepared for the CFA Society Chicago CFA Research Challenge
By: Larry A. Lonis, CFA
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Index
Key Definitions The Valuation Process Earnings Quality – Accrual Ratios Beneish M-Score Model Streams of Expected Cash Flows - DDM Streams of Expected Cash Flows – FCFF & FCFE Residual Income Models Price Multiples Price and Enterprise Value Multiples in Valuation Rationales for and Drawbacks of P/E Ratios Summary of Price and Inverse Price Ratios Valuation Based on Comparables Peer Company Multiples Other Enterprise Valuation Multiples
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Key Definitions
Valuation – the estimation of an asset’s value based either on variables perceived to be related to future investment returns or on comparisons with similar assets.
Intrinsic value – the value of the asset given a hypothetically complete understanding of the asset’s investment characteristics.
Rational efficient markets formulation – investors will not incur expenses of gathering information unless they expect to be rewarded by higher gross returns.
3Source: Equity Asset Valuation – 3rd Edition
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The Valuation Process
Understanding the business – industry and competitive analysis, financial statement analysis.
Forecasting company performance – forecasts of sales, earnings, dividends, and financial position – provides inputs to models.
Selecting the appropriate valuation model – very important as not all models are effective on a universal basis.
Converting the forecasts to a valuation – this involves judgment in addition to entering the historical data.
Applying the valuation conclusions to:◦ A particular stock,◦ Providing an opinion about the price of a transaction, or◦ Evaluating the economic merits of a potential strategic investment.
4Source: Equity Asset Valuation – 3rd Edition
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Earnings Quality – Accrual Ratios
The purpose of this ratio analysis is to identify the cash component of earnings versus the accrual component5◦ These ratios are referred to as "scaled measures" that analysts can use as simple
measures they can readily compute and use in their evaluation of a firm's quality of earnings.
◦ Typically these calculations are completed using "standardized formats" (e.g., financial statements from Compustat, Thomson, FactSet, or other providers of financial data).
◦ A key advantage of using this standard data is that it facilitates cross-sectional comparisons across companies.
◦ Net operating assets (NOA) is the difference between operating assets (total assets less cash) and operating liabilities (total liabilities less total debt).
◦ Cash is excluded (defined as cash and short-term investments) and debt as they measures are essentially discretion free. ("t" refers to time period and "t - 1" is the prior year).
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Source: International Financial Statement Analysis –2nd Edition
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Earnings Quality – Accrual Ratios
The first scaled measure, the balance-sheet-based accruals ratio is defined as:
From a cash flow perspective, a measure of aggregate accruals can be defined as follows:
The ratio above is the cash-flow-statement aggregate accruals.
The scaled measure is called as the cash-flow statement-based accruals ratio. This ratio is defined as follows:
Definitions – NOA -= Net Operating Assets; NI = Net Income; CFO = Cash Flow from Operations;
CFI = Cash Flow from Investing; t = current period; and t – 1 equals prior period.
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Source: International Financial Statement Analysis –2nd Edition
Accruals ratio, B/S (NOA (t ) - NOA (t-1) )(NOA (t ) + NOA (t-1) ) /2
Aggregate accruals - Cash Flow [NI t - (CFO t + CFI t)]
Accruals Ratio - Cash Flow [NI t - (CFO t + CFI t)](NOA (t ) + NOA (t-1) ) /2
Sample Template
Honeywell International
Time PeriodDefinitionsOperating AssetsOperating LiabilitiesNOA
Net Operating Assets (Equation 17-2)Total Assets Less CashMinusTotal Liabilities Less Total Debt
Total Assets$697,239Total Liabilities$577,347
Cash$14,275Total Debt$260,804
tSolution ------------------------------------->$682,964$316,543$366,421
2013
Time PeriodDefinitionsOperating AssetsOperating LiabilitiesNOA
Net Operating Assets (Equation 17-2)Total Assets Less CashMinusTotal Liabilities Less Total Debt
Total Assets$673,321Total Liabilities$555,916
Cash$8,825Total Debt$212,281
t - 1Solution ------------------------------------->$664,496$343,635$320,861
2012
Aggregate Accruals - Balance SheetNOA tMinusNOA t - 1
(Equation 17-3)$366,421$320,861$45,560
Accruals ratio, B/S(NOA (t) - NOA (t-1) )$45,560
(NOA (t) + NOA (t-1)) /2$343,64113.26%
Accruals Ratio - Cash Flow[NI t - (CFO t + CFI t)]$39,212
(NOA (t) + NOA (t-1)) /2$343,64111.41%
Net Income t$20,829
CFO t$33,019
CFI t($51,402)
Lockheed Martin
Lockheed Martin
Time PeriodDefinitionsOperating AssetsOperating LiabilitiesNOA
Net Operating Assets (Equation 17-2)Total Assets Less CashMinusTotal Liabilities Less Total Debt
Total Assets$697,239Total Liabilities$577,347
Cash$14,275Total Debt$260,804
tSolution ------------------------------------->$682,964$316,543$366,421
2013
Time PeriodDefinitionsOperating AssetsOperating LiabilitiesNOA
Net Operating Assets (Equation 17-2)Total Assets Less CashMinusTotal Liabilities Less Total Debt
Total Assets$673,321Total Liabilities$555,916
Cash$8,825Total Debt$212,281
t - 1Solution ------------------------------------->$664,496$343,635$320,861
2012
Aggregate Accruals - Balance SheetNOA tMinusNOA t - 1
(Equation 17-3)$366,421$320,861$45,560
Accruals ratio, B/S(NOA (t) - NOA (t-1) )$45,560
(NOA (t) + NOA (t-1)) /2$343,64113.26%
Accruals Ratio - Cash Flow[NI t - (CFO t + CFI t)]$39,212
(NOA (t) + NOA (t-1)) /2$343,64111.41%
Net Income t$20,829
CFO t$33,019
CFI t($51,402)
Sheet1
Sample Template
Honeywell International
Time PeriodDefinitionsOperating AssetsOperating LiabilitiesNOA
Net Operating Assets (Equation 17-2)Total Assets Less CashMinusTotal Liabilities Less Total Debt
Total Assets$697,239Total Liabilities$577,347
Cash$14,275Total Debt$260,804
tSolution ------------------------------------->$682,964$316,543$366,421
2013
Time PeriodDefinitionsOperating AssetsOperating LiabilitiesNOA
Net Operating Assets (Equation 17-2)Total Assets Less CashMinusTotal Liabilities Less Total Debt
Total Assets$673,321Total Liabilities$555,916
Cash$8,825Total Debt$212,281
t - 1Solution ------------------------------------->$664,496$343,635$320,861
2012
Aggregate Accruals - Balance SheetNOA tMinusNOA t - 1
(Equation 17-3)$366,421$320,861$45,560
Accruals ratio, B/S(NOA (t) - NOA (t-1) )$45,560
(NOA (t) + NOA (t-1)) /2$343,64113.26%
Accruals Ratio - Cash Flow[NI t - (CFO t + CFI t)]$39,212
(NOA (t) + NOA (t-1)) /2$343,64111.41%
Net Income t$20,829
CFO t$33,019
CFI t($51,402)
Aggregate accruals - Cash Flow[NI t - (CFO t + CFI t)]
Lockheed Martin
Lockheed Martin
Time PeriodDefinitionsOperating AssetsOperating LiabilitiesNOA
Net Operating Assets (Equation 17-2)Total Assets Less CashMinusTotal Liabilities Less Total Debt
Total Assets$697,239Total Liabilities$577,347
Cash$14,275Total Debt$260,804
tSolution ------------------------------------->$682,964$316,543$366,421
2013
Time PeriodDefinitionsOperating AssetsOperating LiabilitiesNOA
Net Operating Assets (Equation 17-2)Total Assets Less CashMinusTotal Liabilities Less Total Debt
Total Assets$673,321Total Liabilities$555,916
Cash$8,825Total Debt$212,281
t - 1Solution ------------------------------------->$664,496$343,635$320,861
2012
Aggregate Accruals - Balance SheetNOA tMinusNOA t - 1
(Equation 17-3)$366,421$320,861$45,560
Accruals ratio, B/S(NOA (t) - NOA (t-1) )$45,560
(NOA (t) + NOA (t-1)) /2$343,64113.26%
Accruals Ratio - Cash Flow[NI t - (CFO t + CFI t)]$39,212
(NOA (t) + NOA (t-1)) /2$343,64111.41%
Net Income t$20,829
CFO t$33,019
CFI t($51,402)
Sheet1
Sample Template
Honeywell International
Time PeriodDefinitionsOperating AssetsOperating LiabilitiesNOA
Net Operating Assets (Equation 17-2)Total Assets Less CashMinusTotal Liabilities Less Total Debt
Total Assets$697,239Total Liabilities$577,347
Cash$14,275Total Debt$260,804
tSolution ------------------------------------->$682,964$316,543$366,421
2013
Time PeriodDefinitionsOperating AssetsOperating LiabilitiesNOA
Net Operating Assets (Equation 17-2)Total Assets Less CashMinusTotal Liabilities Less Total Debt
Total Assets$673,321Total Liabilities$555,916
Cash$8,825Total Debt$212,281
t - 1Solution ------------------------------------->$664,496$343,635$320,861
2012
Aggregate Accruals - Balance SheetNOA tMinusNOA t - 1
(Equation 17-3)$366,421$320,861$45,560
Accruals ratio, B/S(NOA (t) - NOA (t-1) )$45,560
(NOA (t) + NOA (t-1)) /2$343,64113.26%
Accruals Ratio - Cash Flow[NI t - (CFO t + CFI t)]$39,212
(NOA (t) + NOA (t-1)) /2$343,64111.41%
Net Income t$20,829
CFO t$33,019
CFI t($51,402)
Accruals Ratio - Cash Flow[NI t - (CFO t + CFI t)]
Lockheed Martin
Lockheed Martin
Time PeriodDefinitionsOperating AssetsOperating LiabilitiesNOA
Net Operating Assets (Equation 17-2)Total Assets Less CashMinusTotal Liabilities Less Total Debt
Total Assets$697,239Total Liabilities$577,347
Cash$14,275Total Debt$260,804
tSolution ------------------------------------->$682,964$316,543$366,421
2013
Time PeriodDefinitionsOperating AssetsOperating LiabilitiesNOA
Net Operating Assets (Equation 17-2)Total Assets Less CashMinusTotal Liabilities Less Total Debt
Total Assets$673,321Total Liabilities$555,916
Cash$8,825Total Debt$212,281
t - 1Solution ------------------------------------->$664,496$343,635$320,861
2012
Aggregate Accruals - Balance SheetNOA tMinusNOA t - 1
(Equation 17-3)$366,421$320,861$45,560
Accruals ratio, B/S(NOA (t) - NOA (t-1) )$45,560
(NOA (t) + NOA (t-1)) /2$343,64113.26%
Accruals Ratio - Cash Flow[NI t - (CFO t + CFI t)]$39,212
(NOA (t) + NOA (t-1)) /2$343,64111.41%
Net Income t$20,829
CFO t$33,019
CFI t($51,402)
Sheet1
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Beneish M-Score Model – Ratio Definitions
Days Receivable Index (DSRI) is:DSRI = (Net Receivablest / Salest) / Net Receivablest-1 / Salest-1)
Gross Margin Index (GMI) is:GMI = [(Salest-1 - COGSt-1) / Salest-1] / [(Salest - COGSt) / Salest]
Asset Quality Index (AQI) is:AQI = [1 - (Current Assetst + PP&Et + Securitiest) / Total Assetst] / [1 - ((Current Assetst-1 + PP&Et-1 + Securitiest-1) / Total Assetst-1)]
Sales Growth Index (SGI) is: SGI = Salest / Salest-1 Depreciation Index (DEPI) is:
DEPI = (Depreciationt-1/ (PP&Et-1 + Depreciationt-1)) / (Depreciationt / (PP&Et + Depreciationt))
SG&A Expense Index (SGAI) is:SGAI = (SG&A Expenset / Salest) / (SG&A Expenset-1 / Salest-1)
Leverage index (LVGI) is:LVGI = [(Current Liabilitiest + Total Long Term Debtt) / Total Assetst] / [(Current Liabilitiest-1 + Total Long Term Debtt-1) / Total Assetst-1]
Total Accruals to Total Assets (TATA) is:TATA = (Income from Continuing Operationst - Cash Flows from Operationst) / Total Assetst
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Beniesh M-Score Definitions
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Definitions Acronym
Current Year CYPrevious year PYCash CAccounts Receivable ARCost of Goods sold COGSCurrent assets CACurrent Liabilities CLWorking Capital WCDepreciation and Amortization Expense D&ADepreciation Expense DEProperty Plant and equipment PPESales, General and Administrative Expense SGATotal Assets TAIncome taxes payable TPCurrent Portion of Long-term Debt CP LT DEBTLong-Term Debt LTD
Instruction Sheet
Step #Instruction
1Enter the financial data in the shaded portion to the "M-Score - Input and Graphs" worksheet in cells C1 - L19
2The portion below the input portion of the spreadsheet should automatically calculate and populate the specific ratios that are part of the model.
3Once you have entered the data and validated that the ratios have changed you will need to compare the ratios calculated to the numbers posted in the graphs.
4If the graphs do not automatically refresh with the correct numbers you will need to right click on each graph and click on "Select Data." This should then allow the graphs to refresh with the correct data.
5Complete step 4 for each graph if necessary.
6The graph portion of the spreadsheet is pre-formatted to print 4 graphs on each page on two pages in landscape mode.
7Review the "Ratio Interpretation Worksheet" to identify if any of the ratios are a cause for concern regarding earnings quality.
&"Geneva,Bold"&14DePaul University - Finance 524Beneish M-Score Model Instruction Sheet
&"Geneva,Bold"&14&ACreated by: Larry A. Lonis, CFA
M-Score- Input and Graphs
M-score for Jean Phillippe Fragrances Inc.
The Full Beneish model for earnings manipulation detection
(Based on Eight Variables)
Step 3 - compare data in table in Step 2 to data posted in the graphs below and refresh data in each graph if needed.
(Students posts numbers in yellow shaded columns.)Step 1 - Input Data
INPUT VARIABLES2016201520142013201220112010200920082007
Net Sales$93,281$91,000$90,000$89,000$88,000$87,000$86,000$85,000$84,000$83,000
CGS$51,355$48,703$46,000$45,000$44,000$43,000$42,000$41,000$40,000$39,000
Net Receivables$1,124$970$970$970$970$970$970$970$970$970
Current Assets (CA)$72,726$67,539$67,539$67,539$67,539$67,539$67,539$67,539$67,539$67,539
PPE (Net)$1,734$1,970$1,970$1,970$1,970$1,970$1,970$1,970$1,970$1,970
Depreciation$1,597$1,322$1,322$1,322$1,322$1,322$1,322$1,322$1,322$1,322
Total Assets$85,585$84,000$83,000$82,000$81,000$80,000$79,000$78,000$77,000$76,000
SGA Expense$32,416$31,000$30,000$29,000$28,000$27,000$26,000$25,000$24,000$23,000
Net Income (before Extraordinary items)$5,658$9,038$8,500$8,000$7,500$7,000$6,500$6,000$5,500$5,000
CFO (Cash flow from operations)$7,975$2,836$2,836$2,836$2,836$2,836$2,836$2,836$2,836$2,836
Current Liabilities$26,158$22,000$21,000$25,000$26,000$20,000$19,000$18,500$18,000$17,500
Long-term Debt$485$596$596$596$596$596$596$596$596$596
Step 2 - Validate Ratios
DERIVED VARIABLES
Other L/T Assets [TA-(CA+PPE)]$11,125$14,491$13,491$12,491$11,491$10,491$9,491$8,491$7,491$6,491
2016201520142013201220112010200920082007
Days Sales in Receivables IndexDSRI1.1300.9890.9890.9890.9890.9890.9880.9880.988
Upper Limit1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000
2016201520142013201220112010200920082007
Gross Margin IndexGMI1.0341.0521.0111.0111.0111.0121.0121.0121.012
Upper Limit1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000
2016201520142013201220112010200920082007
Asset Quality IndexAQI0.7541.0611.0671.0741.0821.0921.1041.1191.139
Upper Limit1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000
2016201520142013201220112010200920082007
Sales Growth IndexSGI1.0251.0111.0111.0111.0111.0121.0121.0121.012
Upper Limit1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000
2016201520142013201220112010200920082007
Depreciation IndexDEPI0.8381.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000
Upper Limit1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000
2016201520142013201220112010200920082007
Sales, General and Administrative Expenses IndexSGAI1.02011.02201.02301.02411.02531.02651.02791.02941.0311
YoY Change(0.0019)(0.0010)(0.0011)(0.0012)(0.0013)(0.0014)(0.0015)(0.0016)
2016201520142013201220112010200920082007
Total Accruals to Total Assets IndexTotal Accruals/Total Assets(0.0271)0.07380.06820.06300.05760.05210.04640.04060.03460.0285
YoY Change(0.1009)0.08200.08360.09370.10620.12230.14340.17250.2151
2016201420132012201120102009200820072006
Leverage IndexLVGI1.1571.0340.8340.9511.2751.0381.0131.0141.014
Upper Limit1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000
M = -6.065+ .823 DSRI + .906 GMI + .593 AQI + .717 SGI + .107 DEPI
M-score (5-variable model)-2.93
M = -4.84 + .920 DSRI + .528 GMI + .404 AQI + .892 SGI + .115 DEPI
-.172 SGAI + 4.679 Accrual to TA - .327 Leverage
M-score (8-variable model)-2.62
Note: if M > -2.22, firm is likely to be a manipulator
&"Chicago,Bold"&14Beneish M-Score ModelEarnings Quality Assessment
&"Geneva,Bold"&12&A&PCreated by: Larry a. Lonis, CFA
Days Sales In Receivables Index
DSRI2016201520142013201220112010200920081.13042766137168730.989010989010989050.988888888888888930.988764044943820310.988636363636363650.98850574712643680.98837209302325590.988235294117646990.98809523809523814Upper Limit201620152014201320122011201020092008111111111
Gross Margin Index
GMI2016201520142013201220112010200920081.03413666491405841.0518213795041941.01123595505617981.01136363636363651.01149425287356331.01162790697674421.01176470588235291.01190476190476191.0120481927710843Upper Limit201620152014201320122011201020092008111111111
Asset Quality Index
AQI2016201520142013201220112010200920080.753500065252944441.06133630533230261.0670448988331841.07376823006764571.08179733128101591.09154593825729631.10362274873320821.11896155728754861.1390716816691242Upper Limit201620152014201320122011201020092008111111111
Sales Growth Index
SGI2016201520142013201220112010200920081.0250659340659341.01111111111111111.01123595505617981.01136363636363651.01149425287356331.01162790697674421.01176470588235291.01190476190476191.0120481927710843Upper Limit201620152014201320122011201020092008111111111
Depreciation Index
DEPI2016201520142013201220112010200920080.8376090193413987511111111Upper Limit201620152014201320122011201020092008111111111
Sales, General & Administrative Index
SGAI2016201520142013201220112010200920081.02010747270387661.02197802197802211.02298850574712641.02407704654895681.02525252525252531.02652519893899211.0279069767441861.02941176470588251.031055900621118YoY Change201620152014201320122011201020092008-1.8705492741455387E-3-1.0104837691042867E-3-1.0885408018304066E-3-1.1754787035684888E-3-1.2726736864667743E-3-1.3817778051938845E-3-1.5047879616965076E-3-1.6441359152354895E-30
Total Assets to Total Assets Index
Total Accruals/Total Assets201620152014201320122011201020092008-2.7072501022375416E-27.3833333333333334E-26.8240963855421694E-26.2975609756097561E-25.7580246913580248E-25.2049999999999999E-24.6379746835443041E-24.0564102564102561E-23.4597402597402599E-2YoY Change201620152014201320122011201020092008-0.100905834355708758.1950329566854899E-28.3609418308400241E-29.3701627410785249E-20.106248739934298730.122257096069868910.143369232985005510.172460922460922320.21506589528770687
Leverage Index
LVGI2016201420132012201120102009200820071.15726598896334051.03384886090016680.833560213662902890.950663771188772211.27537649645502291.03789293733414991.01319382944536061.01372227829530481.0142845660087039Upper Limit201620142013201220112010200920082007111111111
Ratio Interpretation Worksheet
Ratio DescriptionsAcronymAnalysis Observations
1Days Sales in Receivables IndexDSRIGreater than 1 indicates inflated revenue
2Gross Margin IndexGMIGreater than 1 indicates a deterioration in the margin
3Asset Quality IndexAQIGreat than 1 indicates cost deferral and a reduction in asset quality
4Sales Growth IndexSGIGreater than 1 indicates fast growth that induces manipulation
5Depreciation IndexDEPIGreater than 1 indicates upward revision of a companies PPE which increases income
6Sales, General and Administrative Expenses IndexSGAIA large increase in sales growth to SGAI indicates negative indication
7Total Accruals to Total Assets IndexTATALarge accruals are associated with earnings manipulation
8Leverage IndexLVGIGreater than 1 indicates too much leverage
DefinitionsAcronym
Current YearCY
Previous yearPY
CashC
Accounts ReceivableAR
Cost of Goods soldCOGS
Current assetsCA
Current LiabilitiesCL
Working CapitalWC
Depreciation and Amortization ExpenseD&A
Depreciation ExpenseDE
Property Plant and equipmentPPE
Sales, General and Administrative ExpenseSGA
Total AssetsTA
Income taxes payableTP
Current Portion of Long-term DebtCP LT DEBT
Long-Term DebtLTD
&"Geneva,Bold"&14M-Score AnalysisRatio Descriptions, and Analysis Observation Guidance
&"Geneva,Bold"&12&A
Ratio for PPT
Ratio DescriptionsAcronymAnalysis Observations
1Days Sales in Receivables IndexDSRIGreater than 1 indicates inflated revenue
2Gross Margin IndexGMIGreater than 1 indicates a deterioration in the margin
3Asset Quality IndexAQIGreat than 1 indicates cost deferral and a reduction in asset quality
4Sales Growth IndexSGIGreater than 1 indicates fast growth that induces manipulation
5Depreciation IndexDEPIGreater than 1 indicates upward revision of a companies PPE which increases income
6Sales, General and Administrative Expenses IndexSGAIA large increase in sales growth to SGAI indicates negative indication
7Total Accruals to Total Assets IndexTATALarge accruals are associated with earnings manipulation
8Leverage IndexLVGIGreater than 1 indicates too much leverage
DefinitionsAcronym
Current YearCY
Previous yearPY
CashC
Accounts ReceivableAR
Cost of Goods soldCOGS
Current assetsCA
Current LiabilitiesCL
Working CapitalWC
Depreciation and Amortization ExpenseD&A
Depreciation ExpenseDE
Property Plant and equipmentPPE
Sales, General and Administrative ExpenseSGA
Total AssetsTA
Income taxes payableTP
Current Portion of Long-term DebtCP LT DEBT
Long-Term DebtLTD
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Beneish M-Score Ratio Interpretation
FormulaBased on an eight factor model that gives a score.
M Score = -4.840 + 0.920 x DSRI + 0.528 x GMI + 0.404 x AQ + 0.892 x SGI + 0.115 x DEPI - 0.172 x SGAI - 0.327 x LVGI + 4.697 x TATA
Note: if M > -2.22, firm is likely to be a manipulator
9
Ratio Descriptions Acronym Analysis Observations
1 Days Sales in Receivables Index DSRI Greater than 1 indicates inflated revenue
2 Gross Margin Index GMI Greater than 1 indicates a deterioration in the margin
3 Asset Quality Index AQI Great than 1 indicates cost deferral and a reduction in asset quality
4 Sales Growth Index SGI Greater than 1 indicates fast growth that induces manipulation
5 Depreciation Index DEPI Greater than 1 indicates upward revision of a companies PPE which increases income
6 Sales, General and Administrative Expenses Index
SGAI A large increase in sales growth to SGAI indicates negative indication
7 Total Accruals to Total Assets Index TATA Large accruals are associated with earnings manipulation
8 Leverage Index LVGI Greater than 1 indicates too much leverage
Instruction Sheet
Step #Instruction
1Enter the financial data in the shaded portion to the "M-Score - Input and Graphs" worksheet in cells C1 - L19
2The portion below the input portion of the spreadsheet should automatically calculate and populate the specific ratios that are part of the model.
3Once you have entered the data and validated that the ratios have changed you will need to compare the ratios calculated to the numbers posted in the graphs.
4If the graphs do not automatically refresh with the correct numbers you will need to right click on each graph and click on "Select Data." This should then allow the graphs to refresh with the correct data.
5Complete step 4 for each graph if necessary.
6The graph portion of the spreadsheet is pre-formatted to print 4 graphs on each page on two pages in landscape mode.
7Review the "Ratio Interpretation Worksheet" to identify if any of the ratios are a cause for concern regarding earnings quality.
&"Geneva,Bold"&14DePaul University - Finance 524Beneish M-Score Model Instruction Sheet
&"Geneva,Bold"&14&ACreated by: Larry A. Lonis, CFA
M-Score- Input and Graphs
M-score for Jean Phillippe Fragrances Inc.
The Full Beneish model for earnings manipulation detection
(Based on Eight Variables)
Step 3 - compare data in table in Step 2 to data posted in the graphs below and refresh data in each graph if needed.
(Students posts numbers in yellow shaded columns.)Step 1 - Input Data
INPUT VARIABLES2016201520142013201220112010200920082007
Net Sales$93,281$91,000$90,000$89,000$88,000$87,000$86,000$85,000$84,000$83,000
CGS$51,355$48,703$46,000$45,000$44,000$43,000$42,000$41,000$40,000$39,000
Net Receivables$1,124$970$970$970$970$970$970$970$970$970
Current Assets (CA)$72,726$67,539$67,539$67,539$67,539$67,539$67,539$67,539$67,539$67,539
PPE (Net)$1,734$1,970$1,970$1,970$1,970$1,970$1,970$1,970$1,970$1,970
Depreciation$1,597$1,322$1,322$1,322$1,322$1,322$1,322$1,322$1,322$1,322
Total Assets$85,585$84,000$83,000$82,000$81,000$80,000$79,000$78,000$77,000$76,000
SGA Expense$32,416$31,000$30,000$29,000$28,000$27,000$26,000$25,000$24,000$23,000
Net Income (before Extraordinary items)$5,658$9,038$8,500$8,000$7,500$7,000$6,500$6,000$5,500$5,000
CFO (Cash flow from operations)$7,975$2,836$2,836$2,836$2,836$2,836$2,836$2,836$2,836$2,836
Current Liabilities$26,158$22,000$21,000$25,000$26,000$20,000$19,000$18,500$18,000$17,500
Long-term Debt$485$596$596$596$596$596$596$596$596$596
Step 2 - Validate Ratios
DERIVED VARIABLES
Other L/T Assets [TA-(CA+PPE)]$11,125$14,491$13,491$12,491$11,491$10,491$9,491$8,491$7,491$6,491
2016201520142013201220112010200920082007
Days Sales in Receivables IndexDSRI1.1300.9890.9890.9890.9890.9890.9880.9880.988
Upper Limit1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000
2016201520142013201220112010200920082007
Gross Margin IndexGMI1.0341.0521.0111.0111.0111.0121.0121.0121.012
Upper Limit1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000
2016201520142013201220112010200920082007
Asset Quality IndexAQI0.7541.0611.0671.0741.0821.0921.1041.1191.139
Upper Limit1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000
2016201520142013201220112010200920082007
Sales Growth IndexSGI1.0251.0111.0111.0111.0111.0121.0121.0121.012
Upper Limit1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000
2016201520142013201220112010200920082007
Depreciation IndexDEPI0.8381.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000
Upper Limit1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000
2016201520142013201220112010200920082007
Sales, General and Administrative Expenses IndexSGAI1.02011.02201.02301.02411.02531.02651.02791.02941.0311
YoY Change(0.0019)(0.0010)(0.0011)(0.0012)(0.0013)(0.0014)(0.0015)(0.0016)
2016201520142013201220112010200920082007
Total Accruals to Total Assets IndexTotal Accruals/Total Assets(0.0271)0.07380.06820.06300.05760.05210.04640.04060.03460.0285
YoY Change(0.1009)0.08200.08360.09370.10620.12230.14340.17250.2151
2016201420132012201120102009200820072006
Leverage IndexLVGI1.1571.0340.8340.9511.2751.0381.0131.0141.014
Upper Limit1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000
M = -6.065+ .823 DSRI + .906 GMI + .593 AQI + .717 SGI + .107 DEPI
M-score (5-variable model)-2.93
M = -4.84 + .920 DSRI + .528 GMI + .404 AQI + .892 SGI + .115 DEPI
-.172 SGAI + 4.679 Accrual to TA - .327 Leverage
M-score (8-variable model)-2.62
Note: if M > -2.22, firm is likely to be a manipulator
&"Chicago,Bold"&14Beneish M-Score ModelEarnings Quality Assessment
&"Geneva,Bold"&12&A&PCreated by: Larry a. Lonis, CFA
Days Sales In Receivables Index
DSRI2016201520142013201220112010200920081.13042766137168730.989010989010989050.988888888888888930.988764044943820310.988636363636363650.98850574712643680.98837209302325590.988235294117646990.98809523809523814Upper Limit201620152014201320122011201020092008111111111
Gross Margin Index
GMI2016201520142013201220112010200920081.03413666491405841.0518213795041941.01123595505617981.01136363636363651.01149425287356331.01162790697674421.01176470588235291.01190476190476191.0120481927710843Upper Limit201620152014201320122011201020092008111111111
Asset Quality Index
AQI2016201520142013201220112010200920080.753500065252944441.06133630533230261.0670448988331841.07376823006764571.08179733128101591.09154593825729631.10362274873320821.11896155728754861.1390716816691242Upper Limit201620152014201320122011201020092008111111111
Sales Growth Index
SGI2016201520142013201220112010200920081.0250659340659341.01111111111111111.01123595505617981.01136363636363651.01149425287356331.01162790697674421.01176470588235291.01190476190476191.0120481927710843Upper Limit201620152014201320122011201020092008111111111
Depreciation Index
DEPI2016201520142013201220112010200920080.8376090193413987511111111Upper Limit201620152014201320122011201020092008111111111
Sales, General & Administrative Index
SGAI2016201520142013201220112010200920081.02010747270387661.02197802197802211.02298850574712641.02407704654895681.02525252525252531.02652519893899211.0279069767441861.02941176470588251.031055900621118YoY Change201620152014201320122011201020092008-1.8705492741455387E-3-1.0104837691042867E-3-1.0885408018304066E-3-1.1754787035684888E-3-1.2726736864667743E-3-1.3817778051938845E-3-1.5047879616965076E-3-1.6441359152354895E-30
Total Assets to Total Assets Index
Total Accruals/Total Assets201620152014201320122011201020092008-2.7072501022375416E-27.3833333333333334E-26.8240963855421694E-26.2975609756097561E-25.7580246913580248E-25.2049999999999999E-24.6379746835443041E-24.0564102564102561E-23.4597402597402599E-2YoY Change201620152014201320122011201020092008-0.100905834355708758.1950329566854899E-28.3609418308400241E-29.3701627410785249E-20.106248739934298730.122257096069868910.143369232985005510.172460922460922320.21506589528770687
Leverage Index
LVGI2016201420132012201120102009200820071.15726598896334051.03384886090016680.833560213662902890.950663771188772211.27537649645502291.03789293733414991.01319382944536061.01372227829530481.0142845660087039Upper Limit201620142013201220112010200920082007111111111
Ratio Interpretation Worksheet
Ratio DescriptionsAcronymAnalysis Observations
1Days Sales in Receivables IndexDSRIGreater than 1 indicates inflated revenue
2Gross Margin IndexGMIGreater than 1 indicates a deterioration in the margin
3Asset Quality IndexAQIGreat than 1 indicates cost deferral and a reduction in asset quality
4Sales Growth IndexSGIGreater than 1 indicates fast growth that induces manipulation
5Depreciation IndexDEPIGreater than 1 indicates upward revision of a companies PPE which increases income
6Sales, General and Administrative Expenses IndexSGAIA large increase in sales growth to SGAI indicates negative indication
7Total Accruals to Total Assets IndexTATALarge accruals are associated with earnings manipulation
8Leverage IndexLVGIGreater than 1 indicates too much leverage
DefinitionsAcronym
Current YearCY
Previous yearPY
CashC
Accounts ReceivableAR
Cost of Goods soldCOGS
Current assetsCA
Current LiabilitiesCL
Working CapitalWC
Depreciation and Amortization ExpenseD&A
Depreciation ExpenseDE
Property Plant and equipmentPPE
Sales, General and Administrative ExpenseSGA
Total AssetsTA
Income taxes payableTP
Current Portion of Long-term DebtCP LT DEBT
Long-Term DebtLTD
&"Geneva,Bold"&14M-Score AnalysisRatio Descriptions, and Analysis Observation Guidance
&"Geneva,Bold"&12&A
Ratio for PPT
Ratio DescriptionsAcronymAnalysis Observations
1Days Sales in Receivables IndexDSRIGreater than 1 indicates inflated revenue
2Gross Margin IndexGMIGreater than 1 indicates a deterioration in the margin
3Asset Quality IndexAQIGreat than 1 indicates cost deferral and a reduction in asset quality
4Sales Growth IndexSGIGreater than 1 indicates fast growth that induces manipulation
5Depreciation IndexDEPIGreater than 1 indicates upward revision of a companies PPE which increases income
6Sales, General and Administrative Expenses IndexSGAIA large increase in sales growth to SGAI indicates negative indication
7Total Accruals to Total Assets IndexTATALarge accruals are associated with earnings manipulation
8Leverage IndexLVGIGreater than 1 indicates too much leverage
DefinitionsAcronym
Current YearCY
Previous yearPY
CashC
Accounts ReceivableAR
Cost of Goods soldCOGS
Current assetsCA
Current LiabilitiesCL
Working CapitalWC
Depreciation and Amortization ExpenseD&A
Depreciation ExpenseDE
Property Plant and equipmentPPE
Sales, General and Administrative ExpenseSGA
Total AssetsTA
Income taxes payableTP
Current Portion of Long-term DebtCP LT DEBT
Long-Term DebtLTD
-
Streams of Expected Cash Flows - DDM
Differences in cash flow may be caused by differences in:◦ Business risk,◦ Operating risk (use of fixed assets in production), or◦ Financial risk or leverage (use of debt in the capital structure).
Three alternative definitions of cash flow:◦ Dividend discount model◦ Free cash flow model◦ Residual income model
The dividend discount model (DDM) accounts for reinvested earnings when it takes all future dividends into account.
The relative stability of dividends makes the DDM less volatile than alternative DCF models.
Dividend policy practices have international differences, and change through time even in one market.
A lower percentage of U.S. companies pay dividends. For non-dividend paying companies – analysts usually prefer a model that
defines returns at the company level (free cash flow or residual income) rather than at the stockholder level.
10
Source: Equity Asset Valuation – 3rd Edition
-
Streams of Expected Cash Flows - DDM
Using stylized growth patterns◦ Constant growth forever (the Gordon growth model)◦ Two-distinct stages of growth (the two-stage growth model and the H model)◦ Three distinct stages of growth (the three-stage growth model)
Forecast dividends for a visible time horizon, and then handle the value of the remaining future dividends either by:◦ Assigning a stylized growth pattern to dividends after the terminal point◦ Estimate a stock price at the terminal point using some method such as a
multiple of forecasted book value or earnings per share
The stock’s DDM value is then found by discounting the dividends (and forecasted price, if any) back to the present.
The challenge is to:◦ Choose an appropriate model for the stock’s future dividends, and ◦ Develop quality inputs to that model.
11
Source: Equity Asset Valuation – 3rd Edition
-
Streams of Expected Cash Flows – FCFF & FCFE
Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) is cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures.
Capital expenditures are defined as reinvestment in new assets and includes both fixed assets (FCI) and working capital (WCI) investment.
The value of common equity (FCFE) is the present value of FCFF (total value of the company) minus the market value of outstanding debt.
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) is cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures.
The FCFF model may be easier to apply when the company’s debt structure is expected to change significantly over time.
FCFF or FCFE can be calculated for any company. FCFE can be:◦ Used with non-dividend paying companies ◦ Viewed as what a company can afford to pay in dividends◦ Appropriate for investors who want to take a control perspective.
12Source: Equity Asset Valuation – 3rd Edition
-
Streams of Expected Cash Flows – FCFF & FCFE
Defining returns as free cash flows and using the FCFE (and FCFF) models are most suitable when:◦ The company is not dividend paying◦ The company is dividend paying, but dividends significantly exceed or fall short of
free cash flow to equity.
◦ The company’s free cash flows align with the company’s profitability within a forecast horizon with which the analyst is comfortable.
◦ The investor takes a control perspective.
FCFF is a pre-debt cash flow concept FCFE is a post-debt cash flow concept
13
Source: Equity Asset Valuation – 3rd Edition
-
Forecasting Free Cash Flow – FCFF from Net Income
Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) is the cash flow available to the firm’s suppliers of capital after all operating expenses (including taxes) have been paid and operating investments have been made. The firm’s suppliers of capital include creditors, bondholders and common stockholders (and occasionally preferred stockholders that we will ignore until later).
Free cash flow to the firm is:FCFF = Net income available to common shareholders
Plus: Net Non-Cash Charges (NCC aka DDA) (1)
Plus: Interest Expense times (1 – Tax rate)
Less: Investment in Fixed Capital (FCI)Less: Investment in Working Capital (WCI)
(1) Common non-cash charges represent depreciation, depletion, and amortization expenses, but see slide 21 for other examples.
14
Source: Equity Asset Valuation – 3rd Edition
-
Forecasting Free Cash Flow – FCFF from Net Income
This equation can be written more compactly as: (Where Inv(FC) = FCI and Inv(WC) = WCI)
FCFF = NI + NCC + Int(1 – Tax rate) – Inv(FC) – Inv(WC)or
FCFF = NI + NCC + Int(1 – Tax rate) – FCI – WCI Discussion on adjustments◦ Add back preferred stock dividends to arrive at FCFF◦ FCI can also include items such as intangible assets; e.g., trademarks◦ FCI is adjusted for cash proceeds when assets acquired in a transaction are
subsequently sold.◦ FCI – non-cash transactions (stock or debt exchanges) do not affect historical
FCFF, the analyst needs to consider this in forecasting future FCFF.◦ Working capital excludes cash, short-term debt, notes payable, and the current
portion of long-term debt. (Excluding cash this represents net borrowing.)◦ Typically changes in working capital occur in A/R, inventory, A/P and accrued
expenses.◦ Cash and Cash equivalents are excluded because the change in cash is what is
being explained.
15
Source: Equity Asset Valuation – 3rd Edition
-
FCFF and FCFE - Non-Cash Charges
The best place to find historical non-cash charges is to review the firm’s statement of cash flows.
Some common non-cash charges and the adjustments to net income to get cash flow are:
16Source: Equity Asset Valuation – 3rd Edition
Non-Cash Item Adjustment to NI to arrive at CF Depreciation Added Back Amortization of intangibles Added Back Restructuring Charges (expense) Added Back Restructuring Charges (income resulting from reversal)
Subtracted
Losses Added Back Gains Subtracted Amortization of long-term bond discounts Added Back Amortization of long-term bond premium Subtracted Deferred taxes Added back, but calls for special attention
Non-Cash Item
Adjustment to NI to arrive at CF
Depreciation
Added Back
Amortization of intangibles
Added Back
Restructuring Charges (expense)
Added Back
Restructuring Charges (income resulting from reversal)
Subtracted
Losses
Added Back
Gains
Subtracted
Amortization of long-term bond discounts
Added Back
Amortization of long-term bond premium
Subtracted
Deferred taxes
Added back, but calls for special attention
-
Residual Income Models
The third definition of returns is residual income – the earnings for a given period in excess of the investor’s required rate of return on beginning-of-period investment (stockholder’s equity).
Opportunity cost for investing in the stock is the required rate of return for the highest expected rate of return investors forgo when investing in the stock.
Residual income contrasts to accounting income:◦ Attempts to match profits to the time period in which they are earned, not
necessarily realized as cash.◦ Attempts to measure the value added in excess of opportunity costs.
Residual income values a firm based on:◦ Its book value per share plus;◦ The present value of future expected earnings.
Book value per share = common stockholder’s equity divided by the number of common shares outstanding.
The residual income model can be viewed as a restatement of the dividend discount model using a company-level return concept.
17
Source: Equity Asset Valuation – 3rd Edition
-
Residual Income Models
Analyst’s can use a residual income approach for companies with negative expected free cash flows within their comfortable forecast horizon.
A detailed knowledge of accrual accounting is required in order to use the residual income model, so this is frequently the reason that analysts use the DDM’s if they can.
A high quality of earnings makes it easier to calculate residual income by making the appropriate adjustments.
The definition of returns and use of the residual income model is most suitable when:◦ The company is not paying dividends – an alternative to FCFF or FCFE◦ The company’s expected free cash flows are negative within the analyst’s forecast
horizon.
18
Source: Equity Asset Valuation – 3rd Edition
-
Price Multiples
Price multiples are ratios of a stock’s market price to some measure of fundamental value per share.
Enterprise value multiples relate the total market value of all sources of a company’s capital to a measure of fundamental value for the entire company.
The intuition behind a multiple is to determine whether a stock is:◦ Fairly valued,◦ Overvalued, or◦ Undervalued
Multiples are simple in use and ease of communication.
A multiple summarizes in a single number the relationships between the market value of a company’s stock (or its total capital) and some fundamental quantity, such as sales, earnings, or book value (owner’s equity based on accounting values).
19
Source: Equity Asset Valuation – 3rd Edition
-
Price Multiples - Key Questions to be Answered
Questions to consider in making the correct use of multiples as valuation tools:◦ What accounting issues affect particular price and enterprise value multiples, and
how can analysts address them?
◦ How do price multiples relate to fundamentals, such as earnings growth rates, and how can analysts use this information when making valuation comparisons among stocks?
◦ For which types of valuation problems is a particular price or enterprise value multiple appropriate or inappropriate?
◦ What challenges arise in applying price and enterprise value multiples internationally?
Momentum indicators typically relate either price or fundamentals (such as earnings) to the time series of its own past values or in come cases, to its expected value.
These types of indicators may provide some information on future patterns of return.
20
Source: Equity Asset Valuation – 3rd Edition
-
Price and Enterprise Value Multiples in Valuation
The method of comparables
Valuation of an asset based on multiples of comparable or similar assets.
Alternative terms for similar assets:◦ Comparables,◦ Guideline assets, or◦ Guideline companies
Choices for the benchmark value of a multiple include the multiple of a closely matched individual stock, and the average or median value of the multiple for the stock’s peer group of companies or industry.
The economic rationale underlying the method of comparables is the law of one price — the economic principle that two identical assets should sell at the same price.
21Source: Equity Asset Valuation – 3rd Edition
-
Rationales for and Drawbacks of P/E ratios
Rationales which support the use of P/E multiples in valuation: Earning power is a chief driver of investment value. Earnings per share
(EPS), the denominator of the price/earnings ratio, is perhaps the chief focus of security analysts’ attention.
The price/earnings ratio is widely recognized and used by investors. Differences in price/earnings ratios may be related to differences in
long-run average returns, according to empirical research.
Drawbacks based on nature of EPS: EPS can be negative. The P/E ratio does not make economic sense
with a negative denominator. The components of earnings that are on-going or recurrent are most
important in determining intrinsic value. However, earnings often have volatile, transient components, making the analyst’s task difficult.
Management can exercise its discretion within allowable accounting practices to distort earnings per share as an accurate reflection of economic performance.
Distortions can affect the comparability of P/E ratios across companies.
22
Source: Equity Asset Valuation – 3rd Edition
-
Summary of Price and Inverse Price Ratios
23
Source: Equity Asset Valuation – 3rd Edition
Exhibit 3
Price Ratio Inverse price Ratio Comments
Price-to-earnings (P/E) Earnings yield (E/P) Both forms commonly used.
Price-to-book (P/B) Book-to-market (B/P)*
Book value is less commonly negative than EPS. Book-to-market is favored in research but not common in practitioner usage.(book-to-market (B/M) is more commonly used than B/P)
Price-to-sales (P/S) Sales-to-price (S/P)S/P is rarely used except when all other ratios are being stated in the form of inverse price ratios; sales is not zero or negative in practice for going concerns.
Price-to-cash flow (P/CF) Cash flow yield (CF/P) Both forms are commonly used.
Price-to-dividends (P/D) Dividend yield (D/P)
Dividend yield is much more commonly used because P/D is not calculable for non-dividend paying stocks, but both D/P and P/D are used in discussing index valuation.
Chapter 2 Slide 8
Chapter 2 slide # 8
(V0 - P0)
E(Rt)=r t +P0
Chapter 2 slide # 10
Chapter 2 slide # 23
11
β U=1 + D/Eβ E=1 + (40/60)1.20.6 x 1.2 = 0.72
&"Arial,Bold"&Z&F
IBM example 3-12
Exhibit 12 IBM Corporation
YearROE %Profit Margin %Asset TurnoverFinancial Leverage
201287.515.890.886.28
201178.414.830.925.75
201064.014.850.884.90
200959.014.020.884.79
200890.811.900.958.06
200736.610.550.824.23
200633.310.380.893.62
200524.08.710.863.19
200423.67.710.873.50
200322.27.360.843.59
&"Arial,Bold"&Z&F
Sensitivty Analysis
PAGE 186
Exhibit 4-14 Sensitivity Analysis for Petrobas Valuation
VariableBase-Case EstimateLow EstimateHigh EstimateValuation with Low EstimateValuation with High Estimate
Beta1.000.751.25BRL 96.69BRL 68.92
Risk-free rate10.00%8.00%12.00%BRL 106.43BRL 64.70
Equity risk premium5.50%4.50%6.50%BRL 91.65BRL 71.73
FCFE growth rate7.30%5.00%9.00%BRL 61.50BRL 103.13
&"Arial,Bold"&Z&F
3rd Ed - Chapter 5
Page 250 - 3rd Edition Sensitivity AnalysisPage 251 Problem
Sample Problem:
Current dividend (D0)= $0.74V o = DoV o = $4.25
Expected Dividend Growth Rate (g) = 3.5%r - g[0.09 - (-0.04)]
Required Rate of Return (r)= 7.00%
Varying r and g by 25 bps results in alternate valuesInputV o = $4.25V o = $32.69
0.130
Exhibit 3Estimated Price Given Uncertain InputsBoxes
g = 3.25%g = 3.50%g = 3.75%
r =0.090
r = 6.75%$21.83$23.57$25.59g =-0.040
r = 7.00%$20.37$21.88$23.62D o4.25
r = 7.25%$19.10$20.42$21.94
p 275
2nd Edition Problem
3rd Edition Problem
Exhibit11 - Johnson & Johnson
Inputs
D 0 = $2.40g L = 6%
g s = 7.5% first 6 yearsCurrent price = $86.97
TimeD tPresent value of D t and V 6 at r = 9%Present value of D t and V 6 at r = 10%
12.58002.36702.3455
22.77352.33442.2921
32.98152.30232.2401
43.20512.27062.1891
53.44552.23932.1394
63.70392.20852.0908
73.9262
Subtotal 1(t = 1 to 6)$13.7221$13.2970
Subtotal 2(t = 7 to Infinity)$78.0347$55.4054
Total$91.76$68.70
Market Price$86.97$86.97
P 275 Term Value Calc
14Valuing a Non-Dividend-Paying Stock (First-Stage Dividend = 0)14Valuing a Non-Dividend-Paying Stock (First-Stage Dividend = 0)
Definitions:Definitions:
AD oCurrent dividend at Time = t (time period)AD oCurrent dividend at Time = t (time period)
BD n +1Current dividend at Time = t + 1 (time period)BD n +1Current dividend at Time = t + 1 (time period)
CgThe expected constant growth rateCgThe expected constant growth rate
Dr Required rate of return or cost of equityDr Required rate of return or cost of equity
EV nCurrent price of the stock, based on next year's dividend amountEV nCurrent price of the stock, based on next year's dividend amount
Assumptions:Input BoxesAssumptions:Input Boxes
ACurrent dividend (D o)$0.00ACurrent dividend (D o)$0.00
BInitial dividend at time n$3.9262BInitial dividend at time n$3.9262
CTime period in which dividend will start (years forward).7CTime period in which dividend will start (years forward).7
DTime period prior to payment of anticipated dividend payment.6DTime period prior to payment of anticipated dividend payment.6
EGrowth rate in the dividend amount (percent).0.06EGrowth rate in the dividend amount (percent).0.06
FAnnual growth rate factor 1.06FAnnual growth rate factor 1.06
GThe required rate of return is known (percent).0.09GThe required rate of return is known (percent).0.10
HRequired rate of return factor1.09HRequired rate of return factor1.10
Formula:Formula:
D n +1D n +1
V n =r -g V n =r -g
Sample Problem:Sample Problem:
D 7D 7
V 6 =r - gV 6 =r - g
$3.93$3.93
V 6 =.09 - .06V 6 =.09 - .06
$3.93$3.93
V 6 =3.00%=$130.87V 6 =4.00%=$98.16
Today's' Stock Value where r = 9%Today's' Stock Value where r = 10%
V 6V 6
V 0 =(1 + r) e 6V 0 =(1 + r) e 6
V 0 =$130.87V 0 =$98.16
(1 +.09) e 6(1 +.10) e 6
$130.87$98.16
V 0 =1.68=$78.04V 0 =1.77=$55.41
Two Stage Dividend Discount
13Valuing a Stock Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model
Definitions:
AD oCurrent dividend at Time = t (time period)
BD 1Current dividend at Time = t + 1 (time period)
CgThe expected constant growth rate
Dr Required rate of return or cost of equity
EP oCurrent price of the stock
Assumptions:Input Boxes
ACurrent dividend (D o)$1.10
BGrowth rate for first 5 years (G S)11.00%
CAnnual growth rate factor 1.11
DGrowth rate long-term (G L)8.00%
ERequired rate of return ( r )10.7%
FTerminal value of the stock (T).$5.00
GPresent value discount factor1.107
Sample Problem:
Calculate the terminal value of the stock using the long-term growth rate
D o (1 + G S) exp n X (1 + G L)
V 5 =r - G L
V 5 =1.10(1.11) exp. 5 X (1.08)
0.107 - .08
V 5 =1.101.6851.08
0.027
V 5 =2.002
0.027=74.976
PV of
GrowthDiscountPresent
Time ValueDividendCalculationD t or V tFactorValues
1D 11.101.1071.2211.103
2D 21.101.2321.3551.2251.106
3D 31.101.3681.5041.3571.109
4D 41.101.5181.6701.5021.112
5D 51.101.6851.8541.6621.115
5D 574.9761.66245.101
Total$50.645
Interest-Dividend Treatment
Exhibit 4-4 IFRS versus U.S. GAAP Treatment of Interest and Dividends
IFRSU.S. GAAP
Interest ReceivedOperating or InvestingOperating
Interest PaidOperating or InvestingOperating
Dividends ReceivedOperating or InvestingOperating
Dividends PaidOperating or InvestingFinancing
Page 183Country Return (real) 7.30%
+/- Industry adjustment0.80%
+/- Size adjustment-0.33%
+/- Leverage adjustment-0.12%
Required rate of return7.65%
&"Arial,Bold"&Z&F
Chp 6 p 335
PAGE 335
Exhibit 14 Sensitivity Analysis for Petrobas Valuation
VariableBase-Case EstimateLow EstimateHigh EstimateValuation with Low EstimateValuation with High Estimate
Beta1.201.001.40BRL23.68BRL16.13
Risk-free rate5.20%4.20%6.20%BRL23.19BRL16.37
Equity risk premium5.50%4.50%6.50%BRL24.20BRL15.90
FCFE growth rate6.00%4.00%8.00%BRL14.00BRL29.84
Chapter 4 Tables
Exhibit 15 FCFE Estimates for Technocrat (in Euros)
Year
1234560.9001.0801.29654.55
Sales growth rate20.00%20.00%20.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%V 0=1.124+(1.124) 2+(1.124) 3+(1.124) 3
Sales per share
Net profit margin10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%V 0=0.801+0.855+0.913+38.415
EPS3.0003.6004.3204.5794.8545.140
lessNet FCInv per share2.5003.0003.6001.2961.7401.456V 0=40.98
lessWCInv per share1.0001.2001.4400.5180.5500.582
plusDebt financing per share1.4001.6802.0160.7260.7690.815
equalsFCFE per share0.9001.0801.2963.4913.7003.922
Growth rate of FCFE20.00%20.00%169.00%6.00%6.00%
Example 16 FCFE Estimates for Sindhuh Enterprises (per share in US dollars)
Year
20132014201520162017
Growth rate for EPS30.00%18.00%12.00%9.00%7.00%
EPS3.1203.6824.1234.4944.809
lessNet FCInv per share3.0002.5002.0001.5001.000
lessWCInv per share1.5001.2501.0000.7500.500
plusDebt financing per share1.3501.1250.9000.6750.450
equalsFCFE per share-0.0301.0572.0232.9193.759
PV of FCFE discounted at 10.4%-0.0270.8671.5041.965
Example 17 FCFE Estimates for Medina Werks (C$ in millions)
Year
123456
Sales growth rate20%16%12%10%8%7%
Net profit margin14%13%12%11%10.50%10%
Sales720.000835.200935.4241,028.9661,111.2841,189.074
Net profit100.800108.576112.251113.186116.685118.907
lessNet FCInv72.00069.12060.13456.12549.39046.674
lessWCInv30.00028.80025.05623.38620.57919.447
plusDebt financing40.80039.16834.07631.80427.98826.449
equalsFCFE39.60049.82461.13765.48074.70379.235
PV of FCFE discounted at 10.95%35.69240.47544.76343.21144.433
Exhibit 18 Forecasted FCFF for Reliant Home Furnishings
Year
12345678
Growth rate8.80%8.80%8.80%8.80%7.40%6.00%4.60%3.20%
FCFF8118829591,0441,1211,1881,2431,283
PV of FCFF discounted at 8.93%7447437427417317116835,095
&"Arial,Bold"&14&Z&F
Chapter 7
Page 370
Example 3
MeasureFull Year 2012 (a )Less First Quarter 2012(b)Three Quarters of 2012 (c = a - b)Plus First Quarter 2013 (d )Trailing 12 Months EPS ( e = c + d)
Reported EPS$4.98$1.27$3.71$0.81$4.52
Core EPS$6.41$1.81$4.60$1.41$6.01
EPS excluding 2012 legal provisions$5.07$1.28$3.79$0.81$4.60
Chapter 5 Tables
Value using the residual income model is:
Exhibit 5-1 Carrefour SAExhibit 5-2 - Bugg Properties$1.40$1.80$3.175
V 0=$6.00+($1.10)+(1.10) 2+(1.10) 3
Forecasting Book Value per share20072008Year123
Beginning book value ( B t -1)13.4615.14Beginning book value per share (B t - 1)$6.00$7.00$8.25V 0=$6.00+1.2727+1.4876+2.3854
Earnings per share forecast (E t)2.712.86Net income per-share (EPS)$2.00$2.50$4.00
Less dividend forecast (D t)(1.03)(1.06)Less Dividends per share (d)$1.00$1.25$12.25V 0=$11.15
Add change in retained earnings ( E t - D t)1.681.80Change in retained earnings (EPS - D)$1.00$1.25($8.25)
Forecast ending book value per share [(B t - 1) + (E t - D t)]15.1416.94Ending book value per share ( B t-1) + (EPS - D)$7.00$8.25$0.00
Net income per share (EPS)$2.00$2.50$4.00
Calculating the equity chargeLess per-share equity charge (r B t - 1)$0.60$0.70$0.825
Beginning ending book value per share13.4615.14Residual income (EPS - Equity charge)$1.40$1.80$3.175Value using the discounted dividend growth model is:V 0=$1.00$1.25$12.25
Multiply by cost of equity0.0930.093($1.10)+(1.10) 2+(1.10) 3
Per-share equity charge (r X B t - 1)1.251.41
V 0=$0.9091+$1.0331+$9.2036
Estimating per-share residual income
EPS forecast2.712.86V 0=$11.15
Less: equity charge1.251.41
Per-share residual income1.461.45
Page 471 3rd EditionPage 223
P 0ROE - g
Exhibit 1 Silver Wheaton CorporationB 0=r - g
Forecasting Book Value per share20132014
Beginning book value ( B t -1)8.779.65
Earnings per share forecast (E t)1.401.60
Less dividend forecast (D t)0.520.60P 0ROE - r
Add change in retained earnings ( E t - D t)0.881.00B 0=1+r - g
Forecast ending book value per share [(B t - 1) + (E t - D t)]9.6510.65
Calculating the equity charge
Beginning ending book value per share8.779.65
Multiply by cost of equity0.0910.091(ROE - r)
Per-share equity charge (r X B t - 1)0.800.88V o= B o+r - gX B o
Estimating per-share residual income
EPS forecast1.401.60
Less: equity charge0.800.88
Per-share residual income0.600.72
&"Arial,Bold"&14&Z&F
Exhibit 5.7
Exhibit 5-7 Final-Stage Residual Income Persistence
Lower Residual Income PersistenceHigher Residual Income Persistence
Extreme accounting rates of return (ROE)Lower dividend payout
Extreme levels of special items (e.g., nonrecurring items)High historical persistence in the industry
Extreme levels of accounting accruals
&Z&F
Exhibit 5-11
Exhibit 11ActualForecast AForecast BForecast C
Yeart - 1tt + 1tt + 1tt + 1
Beginning Balance Sheet
Assets1,000.001,020.001,142.401,020.001,042.401,020.001,242.40
Liabilities------------------------------------------
Common stock1,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.00
Retained earnings120.00242.40120.00242.40120.00242.40
AOCI(100.00)(100.00)(100.00)(200.00)(100.00)------
Total equity1,000.001,020.001,142.401,020.001,042.401,020.001,242.40
Total liabilities and total equity1,000.001,020.001,142.40 1,020.001,042.401,020.001,242.40
Net income120.00122.40137.09122.40125.09122.40149.09
Dividends------------------------------------------
Other comprehensive income(100.00)------------(100.00)(100.00)100.00------
Exhibit 11 (Continued)ActualForecast AForecast BForecast C
Yeart - 1tt + 1tt + 1tt + 1
Ending Balance Sheet
Assets1,020.001,142.401,279.491,042.401,067.491,242.401,391.49
Liabilities------------------------------------------
Common stock1,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.00
Retained earnings120.00242.40379.49242.40367.49242.40391.49
AOCI(100.00)(100.00)(100.00)(200.00)(300.00)------------
Total equity1,020.001,142.401,279.491,042.401,067.491,242.401,391.49
Total liabilities and total equity1,020.001,142.401,279.491,042.401,067.491,242.401,391.49
Residual income calculation based on beginning total equity
Net income120.00122.40137.09122.40125.09122.40149.09
Equity charge at 10%100.00102.40114.24102.00104.24102.00124.24
Residual income20.0020.4022.8520.4020.8520.4024.85
Yearly Change in Residual Income2.450.454.45
Growth in residual income12.0%2.2%21.8%
&Z&F
Exhibit 5-12
Exhibit 12 - Forecast for Mannistore, Inc.Solution 1 - DDM
Year$0.26$0.29$0.29$0.29$0.38$68.40
Variable12345V 0=(1.10)+(1.10) 2+(1.10) 3+(1.10) 4+(1.10) 5+(1.10) 5
Shareholders' equity (t - 1)$8.58$10.32$11.51$14.68$17.86V 0$43.59
Plus: net income2.002.483.463.474.56
Less: dividends(0.26)(0.29)(0.29)(0.29)(0.38)
Less: other comprehensive income0.00(1.00)0.000.000.00
Equals: shareholders' equity$10.32$11.51$14.68$17.86$22.04Solution 2 - Part A
Net Income$2.00$2.48$3.46$3.47$4.56BV$1.14$1.45 $2.30$2.00$2.77$68.40 - $22.04
Less: (SE t - 1 X r) (where r = 10%)$0.86$1.03$1.15$1.47$1.79V 0=$8.58+(1.10)+(1.10) 2+(1.10) 3+(1.10) 4+(1.10) 5+(1.10) 5
Residual Income$1.14$1.45$2.31$2.00$2.77
V 0=$8.58+$35.84=$44.42
Solution 2A - Residual income calculationSolution 2 - Part B
Year
12345BV$1.14$0.45 $2.30$2.00$2.77$68.40 - $22.04
V 0=$8.58(1.10)+(1.10) 2+(1.10) 3+(1.10) 4+(1.10) 5+(1.10) 5
RI = NI - (Se t - 1 X r)1.141.452.302.002.77
V 0=$8.58+$35.01=$43.59
Solution 2B - Residual income calculation - adjusted for OCI
Year
12345
RI before adjustment1.141.452.302.002.77
OCI(1.00)
RI = (NI + OCI ) - (SE t - 1 X r)1.140.452.302.002.77
&Z&F
Intangible Assets
AlphaBeta
(ROE - r)
Cash1,600100V o= B o+r - gX B o
Property, plant and equipment3,400900
Total assets5,0001,000
Equity5,0001,000
Net income600150Value of Alpha
0.12 - 0.10
V o=5,000+0.10 - 0.00X5,000
V o=6,000
Alpha acquires Beta by paying Beta's shareholders 1,500 in cash
AlphaValue of Beta
Cash200
Property, plant and equipment4,3000.15 - 0.10
Lcense500V o=1,000+0.10 - 0.00X1,000
Total assets5,000
Equity5,000V o=1,500
Alpha acquires Beta by issuing stockValue of Alpha - license amortized over 10 years
Alpha0.14 - 0.10
V o=5,000+0.10 - 0.00X5,000
Cash1,700
Property, plant and equipment4,300V o=7,000
License500
Total assets6,500
Equity6,500
Value of Alpha - no amortization
0.15 - 0.10
V o=5,000+0.10 - 0.00X5,000
V o=7,500
Value of Alpha - Beta acquired for stock
0.15 - 0.10
V o=5,000+0.10 - 0.00X5,000
V o=7,500
Value of Alpha acquired with 1,500 in new stock - no amortization
0.11538 - 0.10
V o=6,500+0.10 - 0.00X6,500
V o=7,500
&Z&F
Page 242
Year
12345
RI = NI - (SE t - 1 X r)1.141.452.302.002.77
&Z&F
Exhibit 5-13
Exhibit 5-13 - 2nd Edition
International Application of Residual Income Models
Explanatory PowerCountry
40 - 50 percentGermany
Japan (Parent company reporting)
60 - 70 percentAustralia
Canada
Japan (Consolidated reporting)
United Kingdom
More than 70%France
United States
&Z&F&A
CH 7 - Example 3
Page 3703rd EditionPage 375
Example 3Exhibit 2 P/E and E/P for Five Beer Companies (as of 9/5/13 in US Dollars)
MeasureFull Year 2012 (a )Less First Quarter 2012 (b)Three Quarters of 2012 (c = a - b)Plus First Quarter 2013 (d )Trailing 12 Months EPS ( e = c + d)CompanyCurrent PriceDiluted EPS TMP/E TTME/P (%)
Molson Coors Brewing Co49.193.1415.76.38
Reported EPS$4.98$1.27$3.71$0.81$4.52
Anheuser Busch Cos.94.738.0411.88.49
Core EPS$6.41$1.81$4.60$1.41$6.01
Boston Beer Co223.574.7347.32.12
EPS excluding 2012 legal provisions$5.07$1.28$3.79$0.81$4.60
Craft Brew Alliance, Inc.12.300.02615.00.16
Mendocino Brewing Company, Inc.0.29(0.02)NM(6.90)
Example 6-3
MeasureFull Year 2008 (a )Less First Quarter 2007(b)Three Quarters of 2007 (c = a - b)Plus First Quarter 2008 (d )Trailing 12 Months EPS ( e = c + d)
Reported EPS$3.74$1.02$2.72$1.03$3.75
Core EPS$4.38$1.07$3.31$1.28$4.59
EPS excluding first quarter 2008 impairment$3.74$1.02$2.72$1.15$3.87
Page 374
Exhibit 1Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (Currency in US Dollars)
Measure2006200720082009201020112012Avg.
EPS (ADR)$0.74$0.63$0.61$0.54$1.07$0.88$1.08$0.79
BVPS (ADR)$3.00$2.93$2.85$2.99$3.80$4.03$4.82$3.49
ROE24.7%21.5%21.4%18.1%28.2%21.8%22.4%22.6%
&Z&F&A
Exhibit 7-3
Exhibit 3
Price RatioInverse price RatioComments
Price-to-earnings (P/E)Earnings yield (E/P)Both forms commonly used.
Price-to-book (P/B)Book-to-market (B/P)*Book value is less commonly negative than EPS. Book-to-market is favored in research but not common in practitioner usage.(book-to-market (B/M) is more commonly used than B/P)
Price-to-sales (P/S)Sales-to-price (S/P)S/P is rarely used except when all other ratios are being stated in the form of inverse price ratios; sales is not zero or negative in practice for going concerns.
Price-to-cash flow (P/CF)Cash flow yield (CF/P)Both forms are commonly used.
Price-to-dividends (P/D)Dividend yield (D/P)Dividend yield is much more commonly used because P/D is not calculable for non-dividend paying stocks, but both D/P and P/D are used in discussing index valuation.
&Z&F
Ch 6 -Slide 47
&Z&F
Chapter 7 - Exhibit 20
Exhibit 20Alternative Denominators in Enterprise Value Multiples
Free Cash Flow to the Firm=Net IncomePlus interest expenseMinus tax savings on interestPlus depreciationPlus amortizationLess investment in working capital (WCI)Less investment in fixed capital (FCI)
EBITDANet IncomePlus interest expensePlus taxesPlus depreciationPlus amortization
EBITA=Net IncomePlus interest expensePlus taxesPlus amortization
EBIT=Net IncomePlus interest expensePlus taxes
Chpater 7 - Exhibit 28
Page 443
Exhibit 28 - Alternative Mean P/Es
Market CapEarningsStock(1)(2)(3)(4)
Security€ MillionsPercent€ MillionsP/EArithmetic MeanWeighted MeanHarmonic MeanWeighted Harmonic Mean
Stock 17155571.50100.5100.55100.50.10.550.1
Stock 25854529.25200.5200.45200.50.050.450.05
15 14.50.0750.0775
Arithmetic Mean15
Weighted Mean14.5(1/0.75)
Harmonic Mean13.33(1/0.775)
Weighted harmonic Mean12.90
g = 3.45%
g = 3.70%
g = 3.95%
r = 5.95%
$33.20
$36.89
$41.50
r = 6.20%
$30.18
$33.20
$36.89
r = 6.45%
$27.67
$30.18
$33.20
g = 3.45%
g = 3.70%
g = 3.95%
r = 5.95% $33.20 $36.89 $41.50
r = 6.20%
$30.18
$33.20
$36.89
r = 6.45% $27.67 $30.18 $33.20
Time t
Dt
Present Value of Dt and V6
at r = 9.5%
Present Value of Dt and V6
at r = 10.0%
1
$0.8015
$0.7320
$0.7286
2
$0.9177
$0.7654
$0.7584
3
$1.0508
$0.8003
$0.7895
4
$1.2032
$0.8369
$0.8218
5
$1.3776
$0.8751
$0.8554
6
$1.5774
$0.9151
$0.8904
7
$1.7035
6
$65.8838
$48.0805
Total
$70.8085
$52.9245
Time t D
t
Present Value of D
t
and V
6
at r = 9.5%
Present Value of D
t
and V
6
at r = 10.0%
1 $0.8015 $0.7320 $0.7286
2 $0.9177 $0.7654 $0.7584
3 $1.0508 $0.8003 $0.7895
4 $1.2032 $0.8369 $0.8218
5 $1.3776 $0.8751 $0.8554
6 $1.5774 $0.9151 $0.8904
7 $1.7035
6 $65.8838 $48.0805
Total $70.8085 $52.9245
Sheet1
Chapter 2 slide # 8
(V0 - P0)
E(Rt)=r t +P0
Chapter 2 slide # 10
Chapter 2 slide # 23
11
β U=1 + D/Eβ E=1 + (40/60)1.20.6 x 1.2 =0.72
IBM example 3-12
Exhibit 3-12 IBM Corporation
YearROE %Profit Margin %Asset TurnoverFinancial Leverage
200630.6%10.30%0.82103.62
200524.7%8.77%0.88003.20
200429.3%8.77%0.91003.67
200330.1%8.54%0.94003.75
Sensitivty Analysis
PAGE 186
Exhibit 4-14 Sensitivity Analysis for Petrobas Valuation
VariableBase-Case EstimateLow EstimateHigh EstimateValuation with Low EstimateValuation with High Estimate
Beta1.000.751.25BRL 96.69BRL 68.92
Risk-free rate10.00%8.00%12.00%BRL 106.43BRL 64.70
Equity risk premium5.50%4.50%6.50%BRL 91.65BRL 71.73
FCFE growth rate7.30%5.00%9.00%BRL 61.50BRL 103.13
Interest-Dividend Treatment
Exhibit 4-4 IFRS versus U.S. GAAP Treatment of Interest and Dividends
IFRSU.S. GAAP
Interest ReceivedOperating or InvestingOperating
Interest PaidOperating or InvestingOperating
Dividends ReceivedOperating or InvestingOperating
Dividends PaidOperating or InvestingFinancing
Page 183Country Return (real)7.30%
+/- Industry adjustment0.80%
+/- Size adjustment-0.33%
+/- Leverage adjustment-0.12%
Required rate of return7.65%
Chapter 4 Tables
Exhibit 4-15 FCFE Estimates for Technocrat (in Euro)
Year
1234560.9001.0801.29654.55
Sales growth rate20.00%20.00%20.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%V 0=1.124+(1.124) 2+(1.124) 3+(1.124) 3
Sales per share
Net profit margin10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%V 0=0.801+0.855+0.913+38.415
EPS3.0003.60044.3204.5794.8545.140
lessNet FCInv per share2.5003.0003.6001.2961.7401.456V 0=40.98
lessWCInv per share1.0001.2001.4400.5180.5500.582
plusDebt financing per share1.4001.6802.0160.7260.7690.815
equalsFCFE per share0.9001.0801.2963.4913.7003.922
Growth rate of FCFE20.00%20.00%169.00%6.00%6.00%
Example 4-17 FCFE Estimates for Sindhuh Enterprises (per share in US dollars)
Year
20082009201020112012
Growth rate for EPS30.00%18.00%12.00%9.00%7.00%
EPS3.1203.6824.1234.4944.809
lessNet FCInv per share3.0002.5002.0001.5001.000
lessWCInv per share1.5001.2501.0000.7500.500
plusDebt financing per share1.3501.1250.9000.6750.450
equalsFCFE per share-0.0301.0572.0232.9193.759
PV of FCFE discounted at 10.4%-0.0270.8671.5041.965
Example 4-18 FCFE Estimates for Medina Werks (C$ in millions)
Year
123456
Sales growth rate20%16%12%10%8%7%
Net profit margin14%13%12%11%10.50%10%
Sales720.000835.200935.4241,028.9661,111.2841,189.074
Net profit100.800108.576112.251113.186116.685118.907
lessNet FCInv72.00069.12060.13456.12549.39046.674
lessWCInv30.00028.80025.05623.38620.57919.447
plusDebt financing40.80039.16834.07631.80427.98826.449
equalsFCFE39.60049.82461.13765.48074.70379.235
PV of FCFE discounted at 10.95%35.69240.47544.76343.21144.433
Exhibit-4-19 Forecasted FCFF for Reliant Home Furnishings
Year
12345678
Growth rate8.80%8.80%8.80%8.80%7.40%6.00%4.60%3.20%
FCFF8118829591,0441,1211,1881,2431,283
PV of FCFF discounted at 8.93%7447437427417317116835,095
Chapter 5 Tables
Value using the residual income model is:
Exhibit 5-1 Carrefour SAExhibit 5-2 - Bugg Properties$1.40$1.80$3.175
V 0=$6.00+($1.10)+(1.10) 2+(1.10) 3
Forecasting Book Value per share20072008Year123
Beginning book value ( B t -1)13.4615.14Beginning book value per share (B t - 1)$6.00$7.00$8.25V 0=$6.00+1.2727+1.4876+2.3854
Earnings per share forecast (E t)2.712.86Net income per-share (EPS)$2.00$2.50$4.00
Less dividend forecast (D t)(1.03)(1.06)Less Dividends per share (D)$1.00$1.25$12.25V 0=$11.15
Add change in retained earnings ( E t - D t)1.681.80Change in retained earnings (EPS - D)$1.00$1.25($8.25)
Forecast ending book value per share [(B t - 1) + (E t - D t)]15.1416.94Ending book value per share ( B t-1) + (EPS - D)$7.00$8.25$0.00
Net income per share (EPS)$2.00$2.50$4.00
Calculating the equity chargeLess per-share equity charge (r B t - 1)$0.60$0.70$0.825
Beginning ending book value per share13.4615.14Residual income (EPS - Equity charge)$1.40$1.80$3.175Value using the discounted dividend growth model is:V 0=$1.00$1.25$12.25
Multiply by cost of equity0.0930.093($1.10)+(1.10) 2+(1.10) 3
Per-share equity charge (r X B t - 1)1.251.41
V 0=$0.9091+$1.0331+$9.2036
Estimating per-share residual income
EPS forecast2.712.86V 0=$11.15
Less: equity charge1.251.41
Per-share residual income1.461.45
Page 223
P 0ROE - g
B 0=r - g
P 0ROE - r
B 0=1+r - g
(ROE - r)
V 0=B 0+r - gXB 0
Exhibit 5.7
Exhibit 5-7 Final-Stage Residual Income Persistence
Lower Residual Income PersistenceHigher Residual Income Persistence
Extreme accounting rates of return (ROE)Lower dividend payout
Extreme levels of special items (e.g., nonrecurring items)High historical persistence in the industry
Extreme levels of accounting accruals
Exhibit 5-11
Exhibit 5-11ActualForecast AForecast BForecast C
Yeartt + 1tt + 1tt + 1
Beginning Balance Sheet
Assets1,000.001,020.001,142.401,020.001,042.401,020.001,242.40
Liabilities
Common stock1,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.00
Retained earnings120.00242.40120.00242.40120.00242.40
AOCI(100.00)(100.00)(100.00)(200.00)(100.00)
Total equity1,000.001,020.001,142.401,020.001,042.401,020.001,242.40
Total liabilities and total equity
Net income120.00122.40137.09122.40125.09122.40149.09
Dividends
Other comprehensive income(100.00)(100.00)(100.00)100.00
Exhibit 5-11ActualForecast AForecast BForecast C
Yeartt + 1tt + 1tt + 1
Ending Balance Sheet
Assets1,020.001,142.40
Liabilities
Common stock1,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.00
Retained earnings120.00242.40379.49242.40367.49242.40391.49
AOCI(100.00)(100.00)(100.00)(200.00)(300.00)
Total equity1,020.001,142.401,279.491,042.401,067.491,242.401,391.49
Total liabilities and total equity
Residual income calculation based on beginning total equity
Net income120.00122.40137.09122.40125.09122.40149.09
Equity charge at 10%100.00102.40114.24102.00104.24102.00124.24
Residual income20.0020.0022.8520.4020.8520.4024.85
Growth in residual income12.0%2.2%21.8%
Exhibit 5-12
Exhibit 5-12 - Forecast for Mannistore, Inc.Solution 1 - DDM
Year$0.26$0.29$0.29$0.29$0.38$68.40
Variable12345V 0=(1.10)+(1.10) 2+(1.10) 3+(1.10) 4+(1.10) 5+(1.10) 5
Shareholders' equity (t - 1)$8.58$10.32$11.51$14.68$17.86V 0$43.59
Plus: net income2.002.483.463.474.56
Less: dividends(0.26)(0.29)(0.29)(0.29)(0.38)
Less: other comprehensive income0.00(1.00)0.000.000.00
Equals: shareholders' equity$10.32$11.51$14.68$17.86$22.04Solution 2 - Part A
$1.14$1.45$2.30$2.00$2.77$68.40 - $22.04
V 0=(1.10)+(1.10) 2+(1.10) 3+(1.10) 4+(1.10) 5+(1.10) 5
Solution 2A - Residual income calculationV 0=$8.58+$35.84=$44.42
Year
12345
RI = NI - (Se t - 1 X r)1.141.452.302.002.77
Solution 2 - Part B
$1.14$0.45$2.30$2.00$2.77$68.40 - $22.04
Solution 2B - Residual income calculation - adjusted for OCIV 0=(1.10)+(1.10) 2+(1.10) 3+(1.10) 4+(1.10) 5+(1.10) 5
Year
12345V 0=$8.58+$35.01=$43.59
RI = (NI + OCI )- (Se t - 1 X r)1.140.052.302.002.77
Intangible Assets
AlphaBeta
(ROE - r)
Cash1,600100V o=B o+r - gXB o
Property, plant and equipment3,400900
Total assets5,0001,000
Equity5,0001,000
Net income600150Value of Alpha
0.12 - 0.10
V o=5,000+0.10 - 0.00X5,000
V o=6,000
Alpha acquires Beta by paying Beta's shareholders 1,500 in cash
AlphaValue of Beta
Cash200
Property, plant and equipment4,3000.15 - 0.10
Lcense500V o=1,000+0.10 - 0.00X1,000
Total assets5,000
Equity5,000V o=1,000
Alpha acquires Beta by issuing stockValue of Alpha - license amortized over 10 years
Alpha0.14 - 0.10
V o=5,000+0.10 - 0.00X5,000
Cash1,700
Property, plant and equipment4,300V o=7,000
Lcense500
Total assets6,500
Equity6,500
Value of Alpha - no amortization
0.15 - 0.10
V o=5,000+0.10 - 0.00X5,000
V o=7,500
Value of Alpha - Beta acquired for stock
0.15 - 0.10
V o=5,000+0.10 - 0.00X5,000
V o=7,500
Exhibit 5-13
Exhibit 5-13
International Application of Residual Income Models
Explanatory PowerCountry
40 - 50 percentGermany
Japan (Parent company reporting)
60 - 70 percentAustralia
Canada
Japan (Consolidated reporting)
United Kingdom
More tan 70%France
United States
Chapter 6
Example 6-3
MeasureFull Year 2008 (a )Less First Quarter 2001 (b)Three Quarters of 2007 (c = a - b)Plus First Quarter 2008 (d )Trailing 12 Months EPS ( e = c + d)
Reported EPS$3.74$1.02$2.72$1.03$3.75
Core EPS$4.38$1.07$3.31$1.28$4.59
EPS excluding first quarter 2008 impairment$3.74$1.02$2.72$1.15$3.87
Exhibit 6-1
Measure2001200220032004200520062007Average
EPS (ADR)$0.08$0.12$0.28$0.58$0.59$0.74$0.63$0.43
BVPS (ADR)$1.58$1.64$1.94$2.50$2.67$3.03$3.34
ROE5.2%7.3%14.4%23.1%21.0%24.7%19.0%16.39%
Exhibit 6-2
CompanyCurrent PriceDiluted EPS (TTM)Trailing P/EE/P
Molson Coors Brewing Co.$57.72$2.9019.95.02%
Anheuser Busch Cos.$61.12$2.8321.64.63%
Boston Beer Co$40.34$0.9044.82.23%
Redhook Ale Brewery$4.50($0.14)N/M-3.11%
Pyramid Breweries$2.57($0.42)N/M-16.34%
Exhibit 6-3
Price RatioInverse price RatioComments
Price-to-earnings (P/E)Earnings yield (E/P)Both forms commonly used.
Price-to-book (P/B)Book-to-market (B/P)*Book value is less commonly negative than EPS. Book-to-market is favored in research but not common in practitioner usage.(book-to-market (B/M) is more commonly used then B/P)
Price-to-sales (P/S)Sales-to-price (S/P)S/P is rarely used except when all other ratios are being stated in the form of inverse price ratios; sales is not zero or negative in practice for going concerns.
Price-to-cash flow (P/CF)Cash flow yield (CF/P)Both forms are commonly used.
Price-to-dividends (P/D)Dividend yield (D/P)Dividend yield is much more commonly used because P/D is not calculable for non-dividend paying stocks, but both D/P and P/D are used in discussing index valuation.
Sheet8
Example 6-16
An Analysis of P/Es and Inflation
SalesTotal Assets
P 0=E 0 (1 + I)g=b X PM 0XTotal AssetsXShareholders Equity
r - I
P 0=E 0 (1 + ∂ I )=E 1
r - ∂ Ir - ∂ IExhibit 6-20Alternative Denominators in Enterprise Value Multiples
Free Cash Flow to the Firm=Net IncomePlus interest expenseMinus tax savings on interestPlus depreciationPlus amortizationLess investment in working capitalLess investment in fixed capital
P 0=E 1
(p - (1 - ∂ ) IEBITDANet IncomePlus interest expensePlus taxesPlus depreciationPlus amortization
andEBITANet IncomePlus interest expensePlus taxesPlus amortization
P 0=E 1EBITNet IncomePlus interest expensePlus taxes
E 1p + (1 - ∂ ) I
Solution 1
For Company M,1
0.03 + (1 - 0.75)0.06=22.2
For Company P,1
0.03 + (1 - 0.75)0.02=28.6
Solution 2
For Company M,1
0.03 + (1 - 0.90)0.06=27.8
For Company P,1
0.03 + (1 - 0.70)0.02=20.8
Chapte 7
MethodBasis of ValuationDLOC Expected?
GTMControlYes
(Guideline Transaction Method)
GPCMTypically minorityNo
(Guideline Public Company Method)
CCM/FCFControl or minorityDepends on cash flows
(Capitalized Cash Flow Method or Free Cash Flow Method)
Sheet6
Sheet5
Sheet4
Sheet2
Sheet3
g = 3.45%
g = 3.70%
g = 3.95%
r = 5.95% $33.20 $36.89 $41.50
r = 6.20%
$30.18
$33.20
$36.89
r = 6.45% $27.67 $30.18 $33.20
MBD000870E2.doc
g = 3.45%
g = 3.70%
g = 3.95%
r = 5.95%
$33.20
$36.89
$41.50
r = 6.20%
$30.18
$33.20
$36.89
r = 6.45%
$27.67
$30.18
$33.20
Exhibit 6-2
Company
Current Price
Diluted EPS
(TTM)Trailing P/EE/P
Molson Coors Brewing Co. $57.72$2.9019.95.02%
Anheuser Busch Cos. $61.12$2.8321.64.63%
Boston Beer Co $40.34$0.9044.82.23%
Redhook Ale Brewery $4.50($0.14)N/M-3.11%
Pyramid Breweries $2.57($0.42)N/M-16.34%
Sheet1
Chapter 2 slide # 8
(V0 - P0)
E(Rt)=r t +P0
Chapter 2 slide # 10
Chapter 2 slide # 23
11
β U=1 + D/Eβ E=1 + (40/60)1.20.6 x 1.2 =0.72
IBM example 3-12
Exhibit 3-12 IBM Corporation
YearROE %Profit Margin %Asset TurnoverFinancial Leverage
200630.6%10.30%0.82103.62
200524.7%8.77%0.88003.20
200429.3%8.77%0.91003.67
200330.1%8.54%0.94003.75
Sensitivty Analysis
PAGE 186
Exhibit 4-14 Sensitivity Analysis for Petrobas Valuation
VariableBase-Case EstimateLow EstimateHigh EstimateValuation with Low EstimateValuation with High Estimate
Beta1.000.751.25BRL 96.69BRL 68.92
Risk-free rate10.00%8.00%12.00%BRL 106.43BRL 64.70
Equity risk premium5.50%4.50%6.50%BRL 91.65BRL 71.73
FCFE growth rate7.30%5.00%9.00%BRL 61.50BRL 103.13
Interest-Dividend Treatment
Exhibit 4-4 IFRS versus U.S. GAAP Treatment of Interest and Dividends
IFRSU.S. GAAP
Interest ReceivedOperating or InvestingOperating
Interest PaidOperating or InvestingOperating
Dividends ReceivedOperating or InvestingOperating
Dividends PaidOperating or InvestingFinancing
Page 183Country Return (real)7.30%
+/- Industry adjustment0.80%
+/- Size adjustment-0.33%
+/- Leverage adjustment-0.12%
Required rate of return7.65%
Chapter 4 Tables
Exhibit 4-15 FCFE Estimates for Technocrat (in Euro)
Year
1234560.9001.0801.29654.55
Sales growth rate20.00%20.00%20.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%V 0=1.124+(1.124) 2+(1.124) 3+(1.124) 3
Sales per share
Net profit margin10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%V 0=0.801+0.855+0.913+38.415
EPS3.0003.60044.3204.5794.8545.140
lessNet FCInv per share2.5003.0003.6001.2961.7401.456V 0=40.98
lessWCInv per share1.0001.2001.4400.5180.5500.582
plusDebt financing per share1.4001.6802.0160.7260.7690.815
equalsFCFE per share0.9001.0801.2963.4913.7003.922
Growth rate of FCFE20.00%20.00%169.00%6.00%6.00%
Example 4-17 FCFE Estimates for Sindhuh Enterprises (per share in US dollars)
Year
20082009201020112012
Growth rate for EPS30.00%18.00%12.00%9.00%7.00%
EPS3.1203.6824.1234.4944.809
lessNet FCInv per share3.0002.5002.0001.5001.000
lessWCInv per share1.5001.2501.0000.7500.500
plusDebt financing per share1.3501.1250.9000.6750.450
equalsFCFE per share-0.0301.0572.0232.9193.759
PV of FCFE discounted at 10.4%-0.0270.8671.5041.965
Example 4-18 FCFE Estimates for Medina Werks (C$ in millions)
Year
123456
Sales growth rate20%16%12%10%8%7%
Net profit margin14%13%12%11%10.50%10%
Sales720.000835.200935.4241,028.9661,111.2841,189.074
Net profit100.800108.576112.251113.186116.685118.907
lessNet FCInv72.00069.12060.13456.12549.39046.674
lessWCInv30.00028.80025.05623.38620.57919.447
plusDebt financing40.80039.16834.07631.80427.98826.449
equalsFCFE39.60049.82461.13765.48074.70379.235
PV of FCFE discounted at 10.95%35.69240.47544.76343.21144.433
Exhibit-4-19 Forecasted FCFF for Reliant Home Furnishings
Year
12345678
Growth rate8.80%8.80%8.80%8.80%7.40%6.00%4.60%3.20%
FCFF8118829591,0441,1211,1881,2431,283
PV of FCFF discounted at 8.93%7447437427417317116835,095
Chapter 5 Tables
Value using the residual income model is:
Exhibit 5-1 Carrefour SAExhibit 5-2 - Bugg Properties$1.40$1.80$3.175
V 0=$6.00+($1.10)+(1.10) 2+(1.10) 3
Forecasting Book Value per share20072008Year123
Beginning book value ( B t -1)13.4615.14Beginning book value per share (B t - 1)$6.00$7.00$8.25V 0=$6.00+1.2727+1.4876+2.3854
Earnings per share forecast (E t)2.712.86Net income per-share (EPS)$2.00$2.50$4.00
Less dividend forecast (D t)(1.03)(1.06)Less Dividends per share (d)$1.00$1.25$12.25V 0=$11.15
Add change in retained earnings ( E t - D t)1.681.80Change in retained earnings (EPS - D)$1.00$1.25($8.25)
Forecast ending book value per share [(B t - 1) + (E t - D t)]15.1416.94Ending book value per share ( B t-1) + (EPS - D)$7.00$8.25$0.00
Net income per share (EPS)$2.00$2.50$4.00
Calculating the equity chargeLess per-share equity charge (r B t - 1)$0.60$0.70$0.825
Beginning ending book value per share13.4615.14Residual income (EPS - Equity charge)$1.40$1.80$3.175Value using the discounted dividend growth model is:V 0=$1.00$1.25$12.25
Multiply by cost of equity0.0930.093($1.10)+(1.10) 2+(1.10) 3
Per-share equity charge (r X B t - 1)1.251.41
V 0=$0.9091+$1.0331+$9.2036
Estimating per-share residual income
EPS forecast2.712.86V 0=$11.15
Less: equity charge1.251.41
Per-share residual income1.461.45
Page 223
P 0ROE - g
B 0=r - g
P 0ROE - r
B 0=1+r - g
(ROE - r)
V o=B o+r - gXB o
Exhibit 5.7
Exhibit 5-7 Final-Stage Residual Income Persistence
Lower Residual Income PersistenceHigher Residual Income Persistence
Extreme accounting rates of return (ROE)Lower dividend payout
Extreme levels of special items (e.g., nonrecurring items)High historical persistence in the industry
Extreme levels of accounting accruals
Exhibit 5-11
Exhibit 5-11ActualForecast AForecast BForecast C
Yeartt + 1tt + 1tt + 1
Beginning Balance Sheet
Assets1,000.001,020.001,142.401,020.001,042.401,020.001,242.40
Liabilities
Common stock1,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.00
Retained earnings120.00242.40120.00242.40120.00242.40
AOCI(100.00)(100.00)(100.00)(200.00)(100.00)
Total equity1,000.001,020.001,142.401,020.001,042.401,020.001,242.40
Total liabilities and total equity
Net income120.00122.40137.09122.40125.09122.40149.09
Dividends
Other comprehensive income(100.00)(100.00)(100.00)100.00
Exhibit 5-11ActualForecast AForecast BForecast C
Yeartt + 1tt + 1tt + 1
Ending Balance Sheet
Assets1,020.001,142.40
Liabilities
Common stock1,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.00
Retained earnings120.00242.40379.49242.40367.49242.40391.49
AOCI(100.00)(100.00)(100.00)(200.00)(300.00)
Total equity1,020.001,142.401,279.491,042.401,067.491,242.401,391.49
Total liabilities and total equity
Residual income calculation based on beginning total equity
Net income120.00122.40137.09122.40125.09122.40149.09
Equity charge at 10%100.00102.40114.24102.00104.24102.00124.24
Residual income20.0020.0022.8520.4020.8520.4024.85
Growth in residual income12.0%2.2%21.8%
Exhibit 5-12
Exhibit 5-12 - Forecast for Mannistore, Inc.Solution 1 - DDM
Year$0.26$0.29$0.29$0.29$0.38$68.40
Variable12345V 0=(1.10)+(1.10) 2+(1.10) 3+(1.10) 4+(1.10) 5+(1.10) 5
Shareholders' equity (t - 1)$8.58$10.32$11.51$14.68$17.86V 0$43.59
Plus: net income2.002.483.463.474.56
Less: dividends(0.26)(0.29)(0.29)(0.29)(0.38)
Less: other comprehensive