Overview of European agriculture-water activities

Peter Kristensen

European Topic Centre on Water

Inventory of European activities

• During the last 15 years many European, regional and national activities have been undertaken in relation to agriculture and water/ nutrients. For example, national studies on assessment of diffuse pollution, nutrient balance, and R&D activities on catchment modelling of diffuse pollution.

Structured overview of activities related to:

• Agriculture nutrient input/balances and calculated water quality

• Relationship between water quality and agricultural activities

• Modelling approaches and scenarios

Draft technical report (10-15 p.) next month (circulated to experts for comments)

Structured overview of agri-water activities

Scientific papers

State of water reports

Country overview

31 EEA countries

- Relevant scientific papers

- “Grey” reports

- State of the environment reports (water chapters)

Overview of activities related to:- Agriculture nutrient input/ balances and calculated water quality- Relationship between water quality and agricultural activities- Modelling approaches and scenarios

Many studies describe trends in nutrient input, nutrient surplus and in some cases these information are used to calculate nutrient leaching/run-off to groundwater and surface water.

1) nutrient balances on European scale;

2) attempts to spatialise nutrient balances to rivers basin scale

3) losses/leaching of nutrients

Nutrient input Fertiliser input Nutrient input

from livestock manure

Atmospheric deposition

Fixation

Nutrient output Output by

harvested crops

Nutrient surplus Nitrogen surplus Phosphorus surplus Nitrogen efficiency

Crops grown Livestock

Nutrient management Nutrient management plans Timing and method Soil tests Manure management

Agriculture nutrient input/balances and

calculated water quality

European nutrient balances• EEA 2005: IRENA 18 Gross

Nutrient Balances • Eurostat 2000 Nutrient

balances• OECD 2001 & 2005• CAPRI 2003 (Used as impact

indicator for evaluating the effect of the CAP reform)

• Soil surface balances• Nitrogen balances• National/ administrative

level• Standard coefficients

N-surplus kg/ha agri

Source: JRC

Source: EEA/OECD

N-surplus 1990 & 2000

Spatialise

During the last years there have been activities to “spatialise” the calculated nutrient balances on administrative levels to river catchments using information on agricultural land cover

European scaleCrouzet P/EEA 2001: Calculation of nutrient

surpluses from agricultural sources - Statistics spatialisation by means of CORINE land cover

JRC 2002: Calculation of Agricultural Nitrogen Quantity for EU River Basins.

Catchment/regional levelBogena H., Goemann H., Kreins P., Kunkel R.und

Wendland F. 2004: Use of CORINE land cover data for modelling water balance and nitrogen fluxes in the river Ems and the river Rhine.

Jordan C., & Smith R.V. 2004/05: Methods to predict the agricultural contribution to catchment nitrate loads: designation of nitrate vulnerable zones in Northern Ireland. Journal of Hydrology xx (2004) 1–14.

Dunn, S.M., Vinten, A.J.A., Lilly, A., DeGroote, J. and McGechan, M., 2004: Nitrogen risk assessment model for Scotland: I. Nitrogen leaching, Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences, 8, 191-204.

Figure 1: N – Balance in Kg/ha for Europe (EU 15) calculated at NUTS 2 level (1990)

Figure 2: N-Balance in Kg/ha for Europe (EU 15) calculated at river basin level (1990)

Source: Terres JM 2002: Calculation of Agricultural Nitrogen Quantity for EU15, spatialisation of the results to river basins using CORINE Land Cover.

Excess water

Scotland nitrogen surplus 1990 Scotland leached N 1990

Source:Dunn, S.M., Vinten, A.J.A., Lilly, A., DeGroote, J. and McGechan, M., 2004: Nitrogen risk assessment model for Scotland: I. Nitrogen leaching, Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences, 8, 191-204

*EXCESS WATERPrecipitation –evaporation

EXCESS NUTRIENTSNutrient input(fertilisers or manure)Nitrogen surplus

= WATER QUALITY RISKPotential leaching, run-off– root zone concentration

EEA (RIVM) 1995 Calculated concentration of nitrate in the leachate from agricultural soils (at 1 metre depth) ?

When is the next time such a map can be

produced?

How to illustrate temporal trends?

Attempts to calculate European wide downstream river nutrient concentrations 1990 and 2010 as a basis for establishing the 6th environmental action programme

Source: Wieringa, K., 2001. European Environmental Priorities: an Integrated Economic and Environmental Assessment. RIVM Report no. 481505010, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands.

ReviewsSchoumans, O.F. & Silgram, M. 2003.

Review and Literature Evaluation of Quantification Tools for the Assessment of Nutrient Losses at Catchment Scale. EUROHARP

Arheimer, B., J. Olsson, 2003, Integration and Coupling of Hydrological Models with Water Quality Models: Application in Europe, World Meteorological Organisation/ Hydrological Operational Multipurpose System, 2003.

EUROHARP testingThe Register of Ecological Models (REM)

Models • Catchment scale: AGNPS, HBV-N,

INCA, MAGIC, MERLIN, SHE, MIKESHE, SHETRAN, SMART, SWAT, TRANS, MONERIS, MODEST, NIIRS, PolFlow, LOIS, CHESS, OPUS),

• Soil water and field scale: ANIMO, EPIC, GLEAMS, HYDRUS/SWMS, MACRO, SOILN, WAVE, DAISY, DRAINMOD, NLEAP, RENLEM2, PTARG, SIMPLE, TOPMODEL,

• River Channels and water flow and quality: AQUASIM, CE-QUAL, MIKE 11, PC-QUASAR (UK), QUAL2E, TELEMAC,

• Decision support systems: BASINS, MIKE BASIN (DK), NELUP) and national level (STONE, NIRAMS (UK)).

+ several more

Quantification tools of nutrient losses

Relationship between observed water quality and agricultural activities

Most European countries have water quality monitoring programmes where nutrients and other pollutants are measured in different types of water bodies (groundwater, rivers, lakes, coastal and marine waters) and there are made assessment of the loading of nutrients from large river and coastal areas catchments.

Nitrate in rivers- Levels of nitrate in rivers in various regions- Trend in nitrate concentration- Nitrate loads from river catchmentsNitrate in groundwater- Groundwater concentration or percentage ofwells affected by high nitrate levels- Trend in nitrate levels

Water Quality State Indicators

Source apportionment – Agriculture share ofobserved concentration - loading

Agricultural activities

Crops grown Livestock % arable & % agriculture land

• Nutrient input- Fertiliser input- Nutrient input livestock manure- Atmospheric dep. & biol. fix.Nutrient surplus

Water quality monitoring• Long-term trend

• Many national monitoring programmes have been running for 20-40 years – a good basis for evaluating trend

• Are there indications of decreasing nitrate concentration?

River stations – EIONET Water EUROWATERNET

Nitrate in groundwater

Source: CEC 2002 Implementation of Nitrate Directive

More than 3000 river stations from more than 30 countries – timeseries for many stations from 1992-2002

Nitrate in rivers and fertiliser consumption

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

ton

N/k

m2

GermanyFranceUnited Kingdom

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

mg

N/l

Rhine at Bimmen/Lobith

River Ythan

River Tyne

River Seine

5 year running average Proxy indicator for intensive agricultural production (high livestock density etc.)

Temporal trend in nutrient concentrations and related to change in agricultural activities.

Long-term trend

Table X3: Example of long-trend in nutrient concentration in large rivers.Country/river (reference) Period Nutrient 1950/60/70

to 1990Trend during last

10 yearsAustria- Danube (AT1) 1957-1995 NO3/SRP Increase (Decrease)Denmark- 3 “large” rivers (DK1/DK2)- 20 streams Funen County

1967-1996 1976-2000

NO3Ntot

Increase (2.5%/yr)

Constant(Decrease)Constant

Finland- Vantaanjoki river (FI1) 1965-1998 Ntot/NO3 IncreaseFrance- Seine (FR1)- Loire (FR2)- Rhône (FR3)

1901-19911976-19991968-1994

NO3NO3/SRP

NO3

Increase (x2)+44%

Increase

???

Germany- Rhine (DE1)- Elbe (DE2)- Weser, Danube, Oder ?

1955-20001984-2000

NO3/SRPNO3

Increase (x2)?

DecreaseDecrease

Italy- River Po (IT1) 1968-1993 NO3/SRP Increase (x2)Gulf of Riga- Input from several rivers(GoR1)

1977-1996 NO3/SRP (Stable)

Latvia- 6 largest river (LA1) 1977-2001 NO3/SRP (no clear trend)Lithuania- Small rivers (LT1) 1952-1990 Nutrients IncreaseSweden- 19 rivers (SE1) 1965-1998 Ntot/Ptot Most stationsUnited Kingdom- Thames (UK1) 1930-2002 NO3 increasing Constant

Many national monitoring programmes have been running for 20-40 years – good basis for evaluating trend

Germany Trend in nitrate levels in 154 river sites; annual average nitrate concentration is higher than 5 mg N/l if category are III or higherSource: Umweltbundesamt

25 % of monitoring stations on Europe's rivers recorded a decrease between 1992 and 2001. However, around 15 % of river monitoring stations showed an increasing trend in nitrate concentrations over the same period. Source: EEA Signals 2004

In Ireland increasing nitrate trend (1979-2000) has been observed for the agricultural impacted south eastern rivers, while the concentration level has been constant for the western rivers Source: SoE 2004

Reporting of national monitoring programmes

Table X2: Reporting of national aquatic monitoring programmes on trend in nutrient concentration in waterbodies. (Table not exhaustive)Country Reference TrendsEur Euroharp: Nutrient trends in

17 European catchments.Not clear trend described

EasternEurope

CEEC Four Eastern Europeanrivers: Õhnejogi and EmajogiRivers in Estonia, DaugavaRiver in Latvia, and Tiszariver in Hungary, in the period1987-1998.

Downward trends in nitrate-N and phosphate-P weredetected in only two of the four rivers. The paper alsocontains a literature review of trends in eastern Europethat comprised several examples of both decreasing andnon-decreasing nutrient concentrations

CH CH1 Trend in Swiss rivers- 19 river stations- Period: 1977-2000

The development of the nitrate concentration shows anincreasing trend through the 1980s and a decreasing trendduring the 1990s.

DK DK1: Aquatic Environment2003. State and trends

Nitrogen concentration and transport (flow adjusted) in streamsin cultivated catchments and in catchments with wastewaterinput exhibit a decline of approx. 30% during the period 1989-2002, corresponding to a reduction in nitrogen concentrations inthese streams of just over 2 mg/l.Average concentrations and transport of total phosphorus instreams affected by wastewater have declined by approx. 40%since 1989 (until 2002) Phosphorus concentrations in streams incultivated catchments with no wastewater input have notchanged significantly during the period 1989-2002

FI FI1: Trends in nutrients inFinnish rivers and lakes in1975–2000

Decreasing nutrient concentration trends were typical inmany lakes and rivers earlier polluted by municipal andindustrial wastewaters.Increasing nutrient concentration trends were common insmaller rivers and lakes receiving diffuse loading fromagriculture.

FR FR1: Inventory of nitrateconcentration in water bodies.1117 river sites and 1702groundwater sites for theperiod 1992-2001

Most surface water had unchanged concentration, whilemany groundwater sites showed increasing concentration.

LA LA1 12 sites in ten Latvianrivers

In the period 1987–1998, only four of the 12 sites showedstatistically significant downward trends in the dissolvedinorganic nitrogen data.

NL NL1: Trends in nutrients inDutch rivers and lakes in1985–2002

Generally constant nitrogen concentration in the period1985-1996 and decreasing concentration in the period1991-2002.For phosphorus decreasing concentration in the period1985-1996 and constant concentration in the period1991-2002.

SE SE1: Trends in nutrients in 66Swedish river sites in 1971-1994

Most sites had no significant trend in the period. Siteswith downward trend and was generally caused byreduced point emissions. No effect of improvedagricultural practices could be confirmed.

UK UK1: Trends in nutrients in 7Scottish rivers in 1985–2002

In rivers with high percentage of agricultural land

The Netherlands: agricultural streams (Landbouw); lakes (meeren) and the river Rhine (German-Dutch border);

Denmark: agricultural streams (with and without point sources: fish farms &uncultivated

Spatial relationship between water quality (nutrient concentration & load) and agricultural activities

Relationship between nitrate concentration and percentage of agricultural land in large rivers in Europe (Kristensen, 1996).

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

< 10% 10-40% >40%Southern

>40%Central

% agricultural land

Nitr

ate

(m

g N

/l)

Spatial relationship between water quality (nutrient concentration & load) and agricultural activities

Source: Kronvang et al. 2005

Source: Ley (1997) – LNF Anteil der landwirtschaftlichen Nutzfläche (LNF)

Relationship between nitrogen concentration and the proportion of agriculture land for 75 rivers discharging into the Baltic

Relationship between nitrogen/ phosphorus concentration and the proportion of agricultural land for 70 Danish streams

Modelling approaches and scenarios

European projections and scenarios

European Fertiliser Manufacturing Association (EFMA) 2004: Forecast of food, farming and fertilizer use in the European Union, 2003 to 2013.

Forecast of fertilizer use in EU & AC countries, 2003-2013

EEA's Agriculture outlooks project (2004/05): final baseline projection to 2025

CAPSIM projections of 25 crop and 11 animal activities – EU25 & 2001, 2004, 2011 & 2025.Result on country basis (EU25) on nutrient (N, P, K) input via fertilisers & manure, output by harvested crops and nutrient surplus for 1994, 2001, 2011 and 2025

CAPRI (2003) - Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Assessment

Scenarios on Agenda 2000 reference run & the CAP Reform Proposal 2003.Results comparison of base year & 2009N-surplus for European Union (EU15); regions (nuts 02) & farm types.

OECD Environmental Outlook 2001 Emissions (?) of nitrogen from agriculture to waters 1995, 2010 & 2020

RIVM et al 2001: European Environmental Priorities

Attempts to calculate European wide downstream river nutrient concentrations 1990 and 2010 as a basis for establishing the 6th environmental action programme

EFMA fertiliser projections

EU15 Member States

New 10 Member States

CAPRI (2003) - Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Assessment

Scenarios on Agenda 2000 reference run & the CAP Reform Proposal 2003.Results comparison of base year (1998) & 2009N-surplus for EU15; regions (nuts 02) & farm types.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Fertiliser Manure Harvested crops N surplus

kg/h

a U

AA

Base year (1998)Agenda reference run (2009)CAP reform proposal (2009)

Change N-surplus at soil level: Agenda 2000 versus base year situation

From dark green to light green: between –18 % and –2 %, white around –1 % and from light red to dark red between 1 % and 25 %.

Examples of national scenarios

RIVM 2000- National Environmental Outlook 5:- Situation after existing policies have been implemented

Møller C., Kreins P., and Gömann H. 2003: Impact and cost-efficiency of alternative policy measures to reduce diffuse pollution caused by agriculture. Diffuse Pollution Conference Dublin 2003

RAUMIS – modelling for 2010 - Reference (Agenda 2000)- Scenario1 - LU- Scenario 2 – fertiliser tax

Reference 2010 Maximum 1 livestock unit/ ha

Examples of catchment scale scenariosDe Wit M., van Gaans P., Bleuten W., Bendoricchio G., Behrendt H. (2001): The contribution of agriculture to nutrient pollution in three European rivers. European Water Management, 2/2002

Rhine, Elbe & Po – Base year 1995Simulation of the EU Nitrates Directive: Average river load at downstream sites2015-2020 – Scenarios: “no change”; “170 max & “balanced farming”

F. Wendland, H. Bogena, H. Gömann, P. Kreins & R. Kunkel 2004: Impact of nitrogen reduction measures on the nitrogen load in the river Ems and the river Rhine (Germany) Pre-print Gömann H., Kreins P., Kunkel R., &Wendland F. 2005: Model based impact analysis of policy options aiming at reducing diffuse pollution by agricultureda case study for the river Ems and a sub-catchment of the Rhine. Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 261-271

River Ems and the river RhineRAUMIS, GROWA & WEKU models- Scenario 1 – fertiliser tax- Scenario 2 - LU

Palmeri L., Bendoricchio G., & Artioli Y. 2005: Modelling nutrient emissions from river systems and loads to the coastal zone: Po River case study, Italy. Ecological Modelling xxx (2005) xxx–xxx

River Po – 2001-2016 – Moneris – River Load at downstream siteScenario BAU (EU policies : UWWT & Nitrate Directives ; Population & Agri development)Three Policy Target Scenarios Deep Green Scenario

Kronvang et al.. 1999: Scenario analysis of nutrient management at the river basin scale. Hydrobiologia 410: 207–212, 1999.Müller-Wohlfeil et al. 2002. Linked catchment and scenario analysis of nitrogen leaching and loading: a case study from a Danish catchment-fjord system, Mariager Fjord. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 27, 691-699.Nielsen et al. 2004: Odense Fjord – Scenaries for reduction of nutrients. Technical report from NERI -276 s.

Different Danish modelling & scenario activities

Bridging the Gap between specific national – R&D studies and European environmental

information and policy development

Much good information as a basis for European agri-water assessments

France- rivers

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 100 200 300

Total input kg N/ha yr

% >

20

mg

NO

3/l

Figure 2 Relationship between percentage of rivers with nitrate greater than 20 NO3/l and total application of nitrogen (fertilisers and manure).

Figure 3: Relationship between river nitrate concentration and percentage of arable land (land ploughed) and nitrogen fertiliser consumption. Source: Neill, 1981

Ireland - River SE

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 10 20 30 40

% land ploughed

NO

3-N

/l

Ireland - SE rivers

00,5

11,5

22,5

33,5

44,5

40 50 60 70N-fert kg N/ha/yr

NO

3-N

/l