Overview of Disaster Risk Assessment Study of ASEAN (Sujit Mohanty)
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Transcript of Overview of Disaster Risk Assessment Study of ASEAN (Sujit Mohanty)
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8/3/2019 Overview of Disaster Risk Assessment Study of ASEAN (Sujit Mohanty)
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Disaster Risks Assessment of the ASEANCountries
Adapted from the presentation made by RMSI
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Agenda
cope o e s u y
Background
Key Study Findings
Disasters
Vulnerability
Social Vulnerability
Economic Vulnerability
Urban Vulnerability
Limitations of the study
Wa Forward and recomendations
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Scope of study
Part of the memorandum of cooperation (MoC) between ASEAN
Secretariat, World Bank and UNISDR under the AADMER
Based on desk review of existing data, studies, maps, analyses andassessments
Review of existing hazard vulnerability and economic data at country and
re ional level
Main data sources consulted are:
CRED EM-DAT, ADRC, NGI, GSHAP, MRC, WAMIS, Munich Re,
World Bank, GAR, InTerragate, IFNet, CCFSC, DesInventar and
countr re orts
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Study Area: ASEAN
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Country Risk Profiles: Criteria
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Reported disaster data for various hazards- used for risk assessment
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Country-level Socio-economic Indicators Sources: World Fact Book (CIA, 2010;http://www.cia.gov); the World Bank (2010; http://web.worldbank.org); Asian
, . . . .http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/); and IMF (http://www.imf.org)
Criteria for a disaster event (EM-DAT)
10 or more people reported killed
100 people reported affected
Call for international assistance
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Country Overview : Indonesia (as an Example)..
Countr -level Information 2009Geographic Area (km2) 2,724,900
Population 15,480,000Population density 6
Population growth (annual %) 1.1
Urban population (% of total) 56 (2006)
Poverty headcount ratio, USD 2 aday (PPP) (% of population)
13.8
GDP (current USD) (billion) 103.84
GDP growth (annual %) 8.5
GNI per capita, PPP.(USD) 9,700
Agricultural GDP (%) 7Industry GDP (%) 44
Forest Fire3%
Service GDP (%) 49Human Development Index (HDI) 0.807 (2006)
Disaster Risk Statistics (1970-2009)
Disaster type No. of Total Deaths/ Relative
Flood36%Landslide
12%
Volcano10%
sasters/year no. odeaths year vu nera ty(deaths/ year/million)
Flood 3.20 5,420 135.50 0.56
Drought 0.20 1,329 33.23 0.14
Storm 0.23 1,692 42.30 0.18
Drought2%
StormE idemicTsunami
Earthquake24%
Percentage distribution of reported disasters
in Indonesia
Epidemic 0.83 3,886 97.15 0.40
Tsunami 0.08 83,525 2088.13 8.69
Earthquake 2.10 97,166 2429.15 10.11Landslide 1.03 1,845 46.13 0.19
Volcano 0.93 661 16.53 0.07Wildfire 0.23 300 7.50 0.03
9%1%
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Country Profile: Indonesia
mongs e , n ones a s one o e mosvulnerable countries to natural hazards
September 1997 Forest fire of Sumatra Island killed240 eo le affected 32 070 eo le and caused an
Flood83.5
roug15.7 Landslide
3.6
Volcano20.6
Tsunami113.0
estimated loss of $8.0 billion
The December 26, 2004 earthquake (magnitude9.1) and tsunami events killed 165,708 people,
Forest Fire440.1
Earthquake249.9
Average annual economic loss ($ million) of Indonesia
a ec e more an . m on peop e an cause aneconomic loss of $4.45 billion
Earthquakes and tsunamis (combined) causedmaximum deaths 180 691 followed b floods
Economic Loss Potential
Annual exceedanceprobability
Economic loss($ million)
Percentage toGDP (2009)
(5,420), landslides (1,845). It also caused the highesteconomic loss ($9.412 billion) in last 40 years
Floods had the highest frequency (3.20), followed
0.5% 10,639.52 1.105.0% 3,623.14 0.3720.0% 1,314.69 0.14
y ear qua es . , an s es . anvolcanoes (0.93)
The relative vulnerability was highest forearth uakes 10.11 followed b tsunamis 8.69 andfloods (0.56)
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Country Profile: Indonesia(Contd.)
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Disaster events and affected population(by 5 years- period)
Disaster events and economic loss(5- year period)
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Key study findings -
- s ory o evas a ng sas ers w uge soc o-econom c osses Almost all types of natural hazards are present, including:
Cyclones (tropical strong), floods, landslides, eqs., tsunamis, droughts, forest-fires
- , , , ,
epidemics, landslides, droughts, volcanic eruptions and forest-fires During (1970-2009), 1,211 reported disasters have caused 414,927 deaths
E
arthqua
k
e
F
lood
Landslid
e
D
rought
S
torm
(
typhoon
/ c
clones
V
olcano
F
orest
F
ire
T
sunami
Brunei X X X X X X
Cambodia X XXX X XX X X
Indonesia XXX XXX XXX XX XX XXX XX XXX
Lao PDR X XXX XX XX XX X X
Mala sia X XXX XX X X XX X
Myanmar XX XXX XX XX XXX X X
Philippines XXX XXX XXX XX XXX XX X X
Singapore X XX X
Disaster Matrix by Country, ASEAN
a an X XXX XX XX XX X X
Vietnam X XXX XX XX XXX X X
ASEAN XX XXX XX XX XXX XX XX XX
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Key study findings(Cont.)
Reported disasters: 36% - floods, 32% - cyclonic storms, 9% -earthquakes, 7% -Landslides
Quantitative risk assessment performed confirms the following risk patterns:
Country Risk Patterns
Cambodia Floods represent the dominant risk followed by drought
Indonesiaores w res, ear qua es an sunam s represen e om nan r s o owe
by floods, volcanoes, droughts, and; landslides
Lao PDR Cyclonic storms, floods and drought are the dominant risksa ays a oo an ores res are e om nan r s
MyanmarCyclonic storms are the dominant risk followed by tsunamis, floods and forest-fires
Philippines, ,
volcanoes, landslides, and droughts
Thailand Floods are the dominant risk followed by tsunamis, and storms
Vietnam Storms are the dominant risk followed by floods, and droughts
Brunei andSingapore
No disaster data is available
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Key Study Findings - Social Vulnerability (SV)
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Period 1970-2009: Myanmar (highest) relative SV, more than 3.5 times that ofIndonesia (the second highest)
SV ranking: Myanmar (highest) followed by Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand,
Vietnam, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Malaysia
CountryPopulation(Millions)
Total Killed(1970-2009)
Combined Disaster Risk fromNatural hazards
Killed per
year
(Killed per year)
per million.
Cambodia 14.49 2,063 52 3.56
Indonesia 240.27 195,824 4,896 20.38
Laos 6.83 1,155 29 4.22
Malaysia 25.71 1,300 33 1.26
Myanmar 48.137 139,317 3,483 72.35Philippines 97.97 46,761 1,169 11.93
Singapore 4.65
Thailand 65.99 12,215 305 4.63
Vietnam 88.57 16,292 407 4.60
ASEAN 593.05 414,927 10,373 17.49
Comparative analysis of social vulnerability for ASEAN
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Key Findings Economic Vulnerability (EV)
from the various disasters (in terms of relative SV ranking)
EV ranking of each country: estimated in terms of likely economic losses that an event with a200-year return period (0.5% AEP) would impact as a % of country GDP
Myanmar (highest) EV ranking followed by Lao PDR, Indonesia, Cambodia, Vietnam,
Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia Due to paucity of economic loss disaster data, the EV analysis could not be carried out for
Brunei and Sin a ore
Indonesia
ASEAN
USD Million
Laos
Myanmar
Percent of GDP
Malaysia
Vietnam
Philippines
Myanmar
Thailand
Thailand
Philippines
Vietnam
Cambodia
Indonesia
Cambodia
Laos
- 5,000 10,000 15,000
Malaysia
ASEAN
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.00
Economic Loss Potential for annual probability of exceedance of 0.5 per cent
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Key Findings Urban Vulnerability
n erms o ear qua e r s , an a s a g es r s o owe y a ar a, angon, ang o , anHo chi minh
Taking into account the cities hazard zonation and populations, earthquakes represent asubstantially greater risk than floods and landslides
In terms of flood risk, Manila is also at highest risk followed by Jakarta, Bangkok, Ho chi minh,and HaNoi
In terms of Overall risks from these hazards, Manila is at highest risk, followed by Jakarta,Yangon, Ho chi minh, Bangkok, HaNoi, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Naypyidaw, Phnom Penh,Vientiane, and Bandar Seri Begawan
16 Population growth trend in major cities
Population trend in ASEAN major cities (1950 - 2030)
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nmillions
Phnom Penh
Jakarta
Vientiane
Kuala Lumpur
Nay Pyi Taw
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Manila
Singapore
Bangkok
Ha noi
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Hazard Risk Management Framework Status of ASEAN
#14
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Limitations of the study
Not rigorous as probabilistic risk assessment
De endent on availabilit of historical loss data
Damage estimates of large catastrophic events tends to be over estimated
And for small and medium scale events underestimated
Accuracy and completeness of historical data (e.g. historical data on,
data is desirable for such analysis)
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Way Forward
Addition Analyses:
Three levels to further refine the results
Should emphasize more on Floods, Typhoons, and Earthquakes and
Tsunamis - most damaging quick-onset disasters
should be repeated at a higher level of resolution
Level 2: Using the same methodology, worst-case scenarios should be
considered for highly populated cities
Level 3: Fully probabilistic analysis containing all elements of standard risk
analysis should be performed for the hazards and regions identified as highrisk in levels 1 and 2
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Way Forward
Drought hazard should be addressed in the context of climate change and long-termadaptation strategies should be considered
Climate risk assessment study should merge traditional risk assessments with
climate change assessments
#17
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www.preventionweb.net/files/18872_asean.pdf
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