Overview of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC)
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Overview of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and evaluating ASEAN Plan of Action For Energy Cooperation (APAEC) Blueprint 2025 Dr. Wan Mohd Zulhafiz Wan Zahari Assist. Professor, Ahmad Ibrahim Kulliyyah of Laws. Deputy Legal Adviser, Office of the Legal Adviser. International Islamic University Malaysia.
Transcript of Overview of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC)
OverviewofASEANEconomicCommunity(AEC)
andevaluatingASEANPlanofActionForEnergy
Cooperation(APAEC)Blueprint2025Dr.WanMohd Zulhafiz WanZahari
Assist.Professor,AhmadIbrahimKulliyyahofLaws.DeputyLegalAdviser,OfficeoftheLegalAdviser.
InternationalIslamicUniversityMalaysia.
ASEAN:AssociationofSouthEastAsianNations
ASEAN– Awell-connectedregion
• Hugemarketwith628+millionpopulation• Freetradeagreementswithmajorregionaleconomies• Highlyconnectedphysically,institutionallyandamongthePeoples
ASEAN– AnEmergingEconomicPowerhouse• Hugemarket:628million+people• GDP:USD2.43trillion• FDIUSD120billion+
“IfASEANwereasinglecountry,itwouldalreadybethesixthlargesteconomyintheworld,withacombinedGDPof$2.43trillionin2015.”
(Source:ASEANStatsandIMF-WEO)
“Itisprojectedtorankasthefourth-largesteconomyby2050.”
McKinsey&Co– May2014
TheASEANJourneytoCommunityBuilding
• BangkokDeclaration- 1967• “Acceleratetheeconomicgrowth,socialprogressandculturaldevelopmentintheregionthroughjointendeavors.”• “Promoteregionalpeaceandstabilitythroughabidingrespectforjusticeandtheruleoflaw.”
TheASEANJourneytoCommunityBuilding
• BaliConcordII- 2003• “AnASEANCommunityshallbeestablishedcomprisingthreepillars,namelypoliticalandsecuritycooperation,economiccooperation,andsocio-culturalcooperation…”
• 12thASEANSummitCebu,Philippines– 2007• CebuDeclaration• “AcceleratetheestablishmentofanASEANCommunityby2015…”
TheASEANJourneytoCommunityBuilding
• StrengtheningFrameworkofASEANIntegration• 2008- ASEANCharter• 2009- RoadmapforanASEANCommunity2009–2015• 2010- MasterPlanonASEANConnectivity
• LaunchofASEANCommunity– 31Dec.2015
ASEANCommunity2025• ConsolidatetheASEANCommunitythroughdeeperandmorecomprehensiveprocessofintegration• EmphasisonASEANcentrality• EmphasisonequitabledevelopmentoftheASEANMemberStates• MoreconnectedASEAN
CoordinationMechanismoftheASEANIntegration
OverviewoftheASEANCommunity• ASEANPoliticalSecurityCommunity(APSC)• EnsuresthatthepeoplesandMemberStatesofASEANliveinpeacewithoneanotherandwiththeworldatlargeinajust,democraticandharmoniousenvironment.
• ASEANEconomicCommunity(AEC)• TransformsASEANintoastable,prosperous,andhighlycompetitiveregionwithequitableeconomicdevelopment,andreducedpovertyandsocio-economicdisparities.
• ASEANSocio-CulturalCommunity(ASCC)• ContributestorealisinganASEANCommunitythatispeople-orientedandsociallyresponsiblewithaviewtoachievingenduringsolidarityandunityamongthepeoplesandMemberStatesofASEAN.
• NarrowingtheDevelopmentGap(NDG)• Progressingtogetherthroughcooperationindevelopment.
AEC&EnergyPolicyAgenda• EnergyiskeytotherealisationoftheASEANEconomicCommunity(AEC)thatcallsforawell-connectedASEANtodriveanintegrated,competitiveandresilientregion.• TheASEANVision2020envisionsacleanandgreenASEANwithfullyestablishedmechanismsforsustainabledevelopmenttoensuretheprotectionoftheenvironment,thesustainabilityofitsnaturalresources,andahighqualityoflifeforitspeople.• SuchavisionwasincarnatedattheBaliSummitinOctober2003astheAECby2020(BaliConcordII).
• TheenergypolicyagendaoftheAECisdesignedtoensureasecureandreliablesupplyofenergythatincludesbiofuels,aswellasexpeditingthedevelopmentoftheAPG(ASEANPowerGrid)andtheTAGP(TransASEANGasPipeline).• Itallowsfortheoptimisationofregionalenergyresources,ensuresustainableenergydevelopmentbymitigatingGHG(greenhousegas)emissions andstrengthenrenewableenergydevelopmentandcooperation.
• IntheAECBlueprint,therearestatementsaboutspecificprojectssuchasAPGandTAGPandaboutgeneralvisions,suchas
“Secureandreliablesupplyofenergyincludingbio-fuel”,“Strengthenrenewableenergydevelopment,suchasbio-fuels”,and“investmentintherequisiteinfrastructureforrenewableenergy
development”.• TheAECalsorecognisesthelimitedglobalreservesoffossilenergyandtheunsustainableworldpricesoffueloilandemphasisestheneedtostrengthenrenewableenergydevelopmentandcooperation.
• However,theAECBlueprintdoesnothaveadetailedprogrammefortheenergysectorandtherearenospecificroadmapsintheAECBlueprint,exceptfortheAPGandTAGP.• Instead,theenergycooperationportioniscollectivelydocumentedinthesequentialASEANPlanofActiononEnergyCooperation(APAEC).
ASEANPlanofActiononEnergyCooperation(APAEC).• TheASEANPlanofActionforEnergyCooperation(APAEC)isaseriesofguidingpolicydocumentsthataimstopromotemultilateralenergycooperationandintegrationtoattainthegoalsoftheAEC.• ItservesastheplatformfordeepercooperationbothwithinASEANaswellaswithDialoguePartners(DPs)andInternationalOrganisations(IOs)towardsenhancing,energysecurityaccessibility,affordability,andsustainabilitywithintheframeworktheAEC.
1st - APAEC1999-2004
• Six(6)ProgrammeAreaswereintroducednamelythe:• 1)ASEANPowerGrid(APG);• 2)Trans-ASEANGasPipeline(TAGP);• 3)EnergyEfficiencyandConservation(EE&C);• 4)NewandRenewableEnergy(NRE);• 5)CoalandCleanCoalTechnologies(CCT);and• 6)RegionalEnergyOutlook,EnergyPolicyandEnvironmentalAnalysis.
2nd - APAEC2004-2009
• SigningoftheMemorandumofUnderstanding(MOU)fortheAPGandtheintroductionoftheannualASEANEnergyAwards(AEA)forenergyefficiencyandrenewableenergy.• TheProgrammeAreaon“RegionalEnergyOutlook,EnergyPolicyandEnvironmentalAnalysis”wasreplacedby“RegionalEnergyPolicyandPlanning(REPP)”.
3rd - APAEC2010-2015
• (a)SigningoftheMOUbetweentheASEANSecretaryGeneralandtheExecutiveDirectoroftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)in2011inBruneiDarussalam,whichestablishedtheannualASEANMinistersonEnergyMeeting(AMEM)-IEAEnergyDialogue;• (b)SigningoftheMOUonthe“InstrumenttoExtendtheTAGP”foranothertermof10yearsuntil20May2023;and,• (c)exceedingASEAN’saspirationaltargetsof8%reductioninenergyintensityreduction(over2005levels)and15%shareofrenewableenergyintotalinstalledpowergenerationcapacitymixby2015.
4th - APAEC2016-2025
• CurrentAPAECextendedoveralongerperiodof10years.Theimplementationplanisdividedintwo(2)phases• PhaseI:2016-2020and• PhaseII:2021-2025.
• APAEC Phase I: 2016-2020 focused on the short- to medium-termstrategies• The 32nd ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting (AMEM) held on 23September 2014 in Vientiane, Lao PDR, endorsed the theme of theASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2016-2025 as• “EnhancingEnergyConnectivityandMarketIntegrationinASEANtoAchieveEnergySecurity,Accessibility,AffordabilityandSustainability
forAll”.• ThekeystrategiesofthesevenProgramAreasoftheAPAEC2016-
2025PhaseI:2016-2020
ASEANPlanofActionandEnergyCooperation(APAEC)PhaseII:2021– 2025• The38thASEANMinistersofEnergyMeeting(AMEM)heldvirtuallyonNovember19,2020,andhostedbyVietnam,endorsedtheAPAECPhaseII:2021-2025,retainingthesamethemeof“EnhancingEnergyConnectivityandMarketIntegrationinASEANtoAchieveEnergySecurity,Accessibility,AffordabilityandSustainabilityforAll”.• Asub-themewasadded:“AcceleratingEnergyTransitionandStrengtheningEnergyResiliencethroughGreaterInnovationandCooperation.”
• TheAPAECPhaseII:2021-2025buildsonthesuccessofAPAECPhaseI:2016- 2020andsetsoutambitioustargetsandinitiativestoenhanceenergysecurityandsustainability.• ItalsosupportstheUnitedNationsSustainableDevelopmentGoal7(UNSDG7).
• UndertheAPAECPhaseII,ASEANwillenhanceitseffortstowardsbuildinganASEANPowerGridbyexpandingmultilateralelectricitytrading toprovideaffordableandresilientelectricity,whileaccommodatinghighersharesofrenewableenergytowardstheenergytransitionandasustainableenergyfuture.• ASEANwillaimtoachieveitsaspirationaltargetsof23%shareofREinTotalPrimaryEnergySupply and35%shareofREinASEANinstalledpowercapacityby2025throughdeployinglarge-scalerenewableenergysystems,accommodatinghighersharesofREintheAPG,increasingREinvestments,andexploringnewandemergingenergytechnologiessuchashydrogenandfuelcells.• ASEANwillpromoteregionalinitiativestoenhancehumanresourcecapability onnuclearscienceandtechnologyforpowergeneration.
IssuesandChallenges• ImpactofCOVID-19Pandemic• TheimpactoftheCOVID-19pandemiconglobalenergydemandandsupplycouldchangehowASEANapproachestheenergytransitionoverthenextfewyears.• AccordingtotheIEA’sGlobalEnergyReview2020,theCOVID-19pandemichascausedmultipleshockstoglobaleconomicandenergymarkets.• Countriesthathaveimplementedfulllockdownsexperiencedanaverage25%declineinenergydemand,whilethosewithpartialmeasuresareshowinganaverageof 15-18%declineinenergydemandperweek.
• Othercontainmentmeasuressuchastravelrestrictionsalsocausedafallinoildemand,oilsupply,anddemandimbalanceaswellasacrashinoilprices.• Globalcoaldemandwashardesthit,fallingbyalmost8%inthefirstquarterof2020comparedtothefirstquarterof2019.• ForASEAN,therehasbeensomeimpactontheoilandgasdemandduetotheCovid-19movementrestrictionspolicy.• Inparticularly,therehasbeenadecreaseofdemandforpetroleumproductsinthecommercial,industrial,andtransportationsectors.• Thedecreaseofnaturalgasdemandhasbeenlargelyrestrictedtothecommercialsector.
• IR4.0• TheFourthIndustrialRevolution(4IR)whichisfasttransformingtheenergysectorintheregion.• Keydevelopmentsincludedigitaltechnologiessuchasinternetofthings,artificialintelligence,bigdata,andcloudcomputingingeneration,distribution,consumption,andsmartproductionofcleanerandmoreefficientenergy.
• Thefuturetrendofelectrificationanddigitalisationwillbringaboutrevolutionarychanges,includingthroughdigitaltechnologiessuchassmartgridsanddistributedpowergenerationwithadvancedsupplyanddemandmanagementsystems,prosumers,andpeer-to-peertradingplatforms.• BuildingupregionalknowledgecapabilitiesinmanagingbigdatasystemwillultimatelyhelptoimprovetheASEANEnergyDatabaseSystem(AEDS)andtheASEANEnergyOutlookwhenmoreenergydataandstatisticsareavailableatregionallevel.
Conclusion
• TheAPAEC2016-2025isadynamicandlivingdocumenttoguidetheimplementationoftheoutcome-basedstrategiesandactionplanstoaccelerateenergytransitionandstrengthenenergyresilienceinASEANtoachieveenergysecurity,accessibility,affordability,andsustainabilityforallundertheframeworkoftheAEC.• Asthecontinuation ofAPAECPhaseI:2016-2020,theAPAECPhaseII:2021-2025comprisescomprehensivestrategiestomeetthechallengesofASEAN’senergytransitionandresilienceinviewofthechanginglandscapeofglobalenergytrends.
• Sowhat’snext?• PreparationsforAPAEC2026-2035PhaseI:2026-2030
Thankyouforyourkindattention
“DevelopinganewlegalframeworkonrenewableenergyandenablingenvironmentsforSoutheastAsia”RACER/1/2019/SSI10/UIAM//2
