Overview of ARS Presentations and Review of EI Data Sets AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September...
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Transcript of Overview of ARS Presentations and Review of EI Data Sets AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September...
Overview of ARS Presentationsand Review of EI Data Sets
AoH Meeting, Salt Lake CitySeptember 21-22, 2004
Air Resource Specialists, Inc.
Overview• Part 1 (Today)
– WRAP Strategic Plan, Phases 1 & 2– Review of Emissions Inventory data used as inputs
for interim modeling efforts– Review of basic EI summaries– Suggestions for better resolution of EI data
• Part 2 (Today)– Incorporating monitoring, modeling and EI data into
AoH analysis– Discussion of regional site clusters
• Part 3 (Tomorrow)– Review of AoH report outline
WRAP Strategic PlanPhase I2003-05
Phase II2005-07
Purpose: Dry run for Phase II. Refine and apply Phase Iapproaches for SIP/TIPpurposes.
Scale: Regional. Regional and subregional.
Apportionment: 96/02 source contributions.Areas each plan to address.
2002 source contributions.Reduction obligations.
Strategies: Identify options, screen. Cost/benefit, select, design.
Communication: Public education. Public acceptance.
Major State/Tribalsubmittals:
2002 emission inventory. Modeling run specifications.
Phase I – Data Sets
• Emissions Inventories– Currently available
• Modeling Data– RMC to present some results tomorrow
(9/22), more by November• Monitoring Data
– IMPROVE aerosol data available. DRI to present regression analyses at AoH workgroup meeting in November.
Emissions Data Set• EPA 2002 NEI not available until 12/05 →
WRAP facilitated development of “interim” 2002 Emissions– Point– Area– Mobile (On-Road & Non-Road)– Road Dust (Paved & Unpaved)– Fire– Windblown Dust– Biogenics– Modeling Domain Boundary Conditions
Point and Area Sources (EH Pechan)Sector WRAP States CENRAP StatesPoint Sources EGUs ETS/CEM data and EIA-767
based estimates for 2002WRAP 1996 point source file
Copper smelters SO2 emissions provided by smelter companies
Not applicable
Non-utilities, non-smelter IAS model projections from 1996 to 2002Year 2000 facility-level SO2 emissions substituted for major 9-State emitters
IAS model projection from 1996 to 2002
Area Sources Applied 1999-2002 growth factors to 1999 NEI area source emission estimates
Applied 1999-2002 growth factors to 1999 NEI area source emission estimates
• EI includes US States, Canada and Mexico
Mobile Sources (ENVIRON)• Emissions were estimated for the 1996 base
year and four future years – 2003, 2008, 2013, 2018– 2003 Emissions used for “interim” 2002
• On-road (EPA MOBILE6 and PART5)• Off-road (EPA NONROAD2000)• Road Dust (interpolated between 1996 and 2018)
• One known limitation:– For off-road emissions, NONROAD2000
overestimates VOC (~13%), NOx (~35%), PM2.5 (~28%) and SO2 (~72%).
– CA provided estimates directly, so these errors don’t apply to CA
• EI includes US States, Canada and Mexico
EI Coverage for Point, Area and Mobile Sources
Area Source Em issions (tons/yr)
VO C
NO X
SO 2
PM C
PM 2.5
NH3
959 953361 1905763
Fire Emissions (WRAP)
• Actual 2002 wildland fire and prescribed fire emission inventories– Specific location, date, size and fuel
loading for each fire event.• EI includes WRAP states only
Windblown Dust (RMC)• Modeled using:
– Land Use/Land Cover (LULC)• BELD3, NALCC, NLCD
– Soil Characteristics• STATSGO; Soil Landscape of Canada; Intl. Soil Reference and Information
Centre
– Meteorological Data• 2002 36-km MM5
– Agricultural Data• BELD3, RUSLE2, CTIC
• EI includes modeling domain
Biogenics Emissions (RMC)
• Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS3)– Vegetation Data: Biogenic Emissions
Landuse Database (BELD3)– Meteorological Data (MM5v3)
• Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS3)
• EI includes US states
Boundary Conditions (RMC)
RMC: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/inputs/gifs/BC/vistas.geoschem.mean.so4.gif
Area S ource E m iss ions (tons/yr)
VO C
NO X
SO 2
PM C
PM 2.5
NH 3
1000 950,000 1,900,000
Pie Chart Representation of Area Emissions by State/Province
Fire E m issions (tons/yr)
VO C
N O X
SO 2
PM C
PM 2.5
N H3
7000 550,000 1,100,000
Pie Chart Representation of Fire Emissions by State
Gridded Representation of CMAQ Wind Blown Dust Model Emissions Inputs
RMC: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/wb_dust2002/scen_d/PMFINE/PMFINE_yearly.scen_d.gif
County-level Representation of CO Area Source NOX
C olorado A rea Source N O xtons/year
0 - 3030 - 100100 - 200200 - 500500 - 700700 - 13001300 - 2600N o D ata
WRAP NOX Emissions Summary
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
AZ CA CO ID MT NV NM ND OR SD UT WA WY
tons
/yr
Biogenics
Road DustNon-Road Mobile
On-Road Mobile
FiresArea
Point
WRAP States Representation of Emissions
WRAP SO2 Emissions Summary
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
AZ CA CO ID MT NV NM ND OR SD UT WA WY
tons
/yr
Biogenics
Road Dust
Non-Road MobileOn-Road Mobile
Fires
AreaPoint
WRAP States Representation of Emissions
California Emissions Comparison
• EI comparison: WRAP interim 2002 and CA reported 2003
• Differences in EI reporting:– Differences in point and area binning– CA reports reactive organic gases (ROG),
WRAP reports volatile organic compounds (VOC) - specific pollutants differ in some cases
– CA reports SOx, WRAP reports SO2• EI comparison reasonable, consistent with
known differences
California Emissions ComparisonCalifornia 2002 "Interim" vs. 2003 Reported Emissions
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
NOXInterim
NOXReported
VOCInterim
ROGReported
SO2Interim
SOXReported
PM2.5Interim
PM2.5Reported
PMCInterim
PMCReported
Tho
usan
d T
ons/Y
ear
.
Road DustOff-Road MobileOn-Road MobileFiresAreaPoint
EI Temporal and Spatial Resolution
• 2002 interim modeling efforts utilize temporal and spatial resolution of EI data for states and boundary conditions
• Level of detail of EI temporal and spatial resolution in summary products to be determined by AoH Work Group (opinions?)
• Following examples can be generated for all pollutant sources/states
Arizona 2002 PM2.5 Fire Emissions
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Jan-02
Feb-02
Mar-02
Apr-02
May-02
Jun-02
Jul-02
Aug-02
Sep-02
Oct-02
Nov-02
Dec-02
tons
WildfireRx FireAg Fire
↑ ~9000
2002 Biogenic VOC Emissions
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Jan-02
Feb-02
Mar-02
Apr-02
May-02
Jun-02
Jul-02
Aug-02
Sep-02
Oct-02
Nov-02
Dec-02
tons
/yr
CaliforniaArizonaColoradoNorth Dakota
CO Area Source NOX (Hatch)C olorado A rea Source N O x
tons/year
0 - 3030 - 100100 - 200200 - 500500 - 700700 - 13001300 - 2600N o D ata
CO Area Source NOX (Density)
C olorado Area Source N O xtons/year
Each Dot = 10 U nitsDots for m ax data va lue = 255