Overview of Administration Aviation Air Quality and...

Federal AviationAdministration

Presented to: Aviation and the Environment: A Primerfor North American Stakeholders

By: Dr. Lourdes MauriceChief Scientific and Technical Advisor for EnvironmentFAA Office of Environment & Energy

Date: March 19, 2008

Overview of Aviation Air Quality and Climate Impacts

Overview of Aviation Air Quality and Climate Impacts 2Federal AviationAdministration

March 19, 2008

• The Characteristics of Aviation Emissions

• Aviation Emissions Context and Trends

• Aviation Emissions Impacts Pathways

• Closing Observations

Outline


March 19, 2008

3Fuel CnHm (+S)

Air

N2 + O2

Combustion by-products:CO2 Water Vapor

NOx SOx

CO

Unburned hydrocarbons (UHC) including Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs)

Volatile and non-volatile particulate matter (PM)

• Aircraft emissions are four-dimensional in nature.

• Vertical extent of aviation emissions ranges from surface to cruise altitude.

• Local and Global impacts are not independent (contributions to local impacts may come from emissions > 3,000 feet).

Aircraft Combustion and Emissions


March 19, 2008

NOx + UHC + CO + Csoot + SOx

O3NO2 HAPs

Typically ~10% of aviation emissions occur below 3,000 feet

Assessments of air quality must consider regional impacts

Precursor gases (SO2, UHCs)

Aircraft Combustion and Air Quality EmissionsFuel CnHm (+S)

Air

N2 + O2


March 19, 2008

Air Quality Concerns

• Premature Mortality• Hospital admissions• Emergency room visits• Asthma attacks• Acute bronchitis• Cancer• Respiratory irritation• Lost school/work days• Restricted activity days


March 19, 2008

6Fuel CnHm (+S)

Air

N2 + O2

CO2 + H2O + N2 + O2 + NOx + UHC + CO + Csoot + SOx

+O3 CH4

--++ +

Most aviation emissions occur in the upper troposphere/ lower stratosphere

Aircraft Emissions of Concern to Climate


March 19, 2008

• Direct effects on climate from carbon dioxide (CO2)emissions

• Indirect effects from changes in ozone and methane from NOx emissions– At these altitudes, NOx emissions produce O3– Increase in ozone results in increased tropospheric OH

and reduced CH4• Indirect effects from water vapor and particle emissions

due to contrail formation and corresponding effects on cloudiness

• Direct effects from aerosols (particles) either emitted directly (e.g., soot) or produced from emitted precursor gases (e.g., SO2, HCs)

• Direct effects from water vapor emissions in stratosphere

The Complexities of Climate Effects of Aviation


March 19, 2008

2003 revision (>6%)with cirrus impact

Cumulative fleet CO2 emissions over last ~50 years

Short-lived clouds from emissions lasting ~1 day

1999 estimate (3.5%), cirrus impact uncertain

Future : CO2 RF lasts ~300 years, cloud RF lasts ~1 day

Figure adapted from IPCC (1999) with additional data from Schumann (2003)

W/m

2Uncertainties Understanding Climate Impacts


March 19, 2008

Health ImpactsHealth Impacts

Agriculture ImpactsAgriculture Impacts

Water Resource ImpactsWater Resource Impacts

Coastal Area ImpactsCoastal Area Impacts

Forest ImpactsForest Impacts

Ecosystem ImpactsEcosystem Impacts

Climate Changes

Sea Level Rise

Temperature

Precipitation, Severe weather

Adapted from EPA, Adapted from EPA, courtesy of Don courtesy of Don WuebblesWuebbles

Winds

Economics & Infrastructure

Climate Concerns


March 19, 2008

Outline






March 19, 2008

Kilometers Flown, todayWorld’s Land Mass

From Worldmapper, The University of Sheffield

North America Aviation Activity Context


March 19, 2008

While all transportation makes up more than 58 percent of the total national NOx inventory, aviation represents only about 0.5 percent.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Local NOx Emissions

Source: U.S. EPA DATA - 2005

Transport Each square represents 1%of total emissions inventory

Transportation

Residential

Electric UtilitiesIndustry

CommercialAgriculture

Aviation

Non-Transport Transport

Transport

Each square represents 1%of total emissions inventory

Non-Road Vehicles

Misc. area/point sources

On-Road VehiclesElectric UtilitiesIndustryCommercial/Institutional

Manufacturing

Aviation

Non-Transport Transport

Aviation Greenhouse and Air Quality Emissions in Context


March 19, 2008

The Record: Emissions Improvements

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Btu

/pas

seng

er-m

ile

Aircraft

Automobiles

Aircraft Energy Efficiency has improved substantially, especially when compared to the other form of US mass transit that moves passengers.

Source: BTS, National Transportation Statistics 2002


March 19, 2008

The Record: Emissions Improvements

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1980 1985 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Emis

sion

s In

dex

1980

= 1

00 NOx

SOx

PM10

HC

CO

Source: EPA National Air Quality 2001 Status and Trends, September 2002

Local air quality pollutants have declined steadily over the past several years. NOx has been the most challenging pollutant to constrain


March 19, 2008

Transport Related Emissions in Context

Eyring et al., Part 1, JGR, 2005


March 19, 2008

Data from air quality analyses at select airport

Relative Pollutant Contributions From Various Sources

020406080

100

Aircraf

t

APU

GSE

Vehicle

sStatio

nary

Perc

ent NOx

COHC SOx


March 19, 2008

“Follies of Science: 20th Century

Visions of Our Fantastic Future”

"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible."

Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895

Predicting the Future


March 19, 2008

Future North American Emission Trends

200250300350400450

2000 2010 2020 2030

Tg C

O2

0.51

1.52

2000 2010 2020 2030Tg N

Ox

> 30

00'

Predictions computed using Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT)

0.050.1

0.150.2

2000 2010 2020 2030Tg N

Ox

< 30

00'


March 19, 2008

Global Above 3000 ft

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

4500000

2002 2012 2016 2020 2025 2030

Year

NO

x (M

etric

Ton

BaseMTwoPRLTwoPRMTwPRLTwPRMTwoPR (All Aircraft)LTwoPR (All Aircraft)MTwPR (All Aircraft)LTwPR (All Aircraft)

Very aggressive replacements flatten growth –but is it affordable or even feasible?

FAA Analyses – Long Term Goals Impacts on NOx


March 19, 2008

A Note of Caution On Predicting Trends

US Commercial Aviation Fuel Consumption

16,00017,00018,00019,00020,00021,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Mill

ions

of G

allo

ns

Very unlikely we would have predicted this trend!

Source: BTS

Year


March 19, 2008

Outline






March 19, 2008

Impacts Pathways Concept

• Traditionally used for air quality, climate but extendable to noise

• Relate emission to background levels using physical models

• Use scientific knowledge to estimate impact

Emission of Pollutant / Noise

Change in Concentration

EstimatedImpact


March 19, 2008

Air Quality Impact Pathway

Aircraft emissions of primary particulate matter and secondary

particulate matter pre-cursors (SOX, NOX, and hydrocarbons); ozone pre-

cursors (NOX and hydrocarbons); and HAPs

Ambient air concentrations of PM2.5, ozone, and HAPs

1. Population exposure2. Incidence of premature mortality

and morbidity

Emission of Pollutant


EstimatedImpact


March 19, 2008

Climate Impact Pathway

Aircraft emissions: CO2, NOX, SOX, H2O, and soot

Atmospheric concentration of forcing agents such as CO2, CH4,

O3, H2O, aerosols, contrails, contrail-induced cirrus clouds

Temperature change, climate change, sea level rise, …

Emission of Pollutant


EstimatedImpact


March 19, 2008

Scientific& Modeling

Impact chain

Decision Making

(a)Inventories

(b)Physical changes

(e.g., noise levels, air quality,

temperature change)

(c)Health and

welfare impacts

(e.g., # of people

exposed, annoyance,

mortality incidence)

(d)Comparing costs

and benefits(CBA)

Increasing uncertainty

Increasing relevance

Scientific vs. Policy-making Perspectives on Uncertainty


March 19, 2008

But how do we go from This …

… to This.


March 19, 2008Source: ICAO Impacts Workshop Report


March 19, 2008

Outline






March 19, 2008

Closing Observations

• Aviation relatively small, but not negligible contribution to both air quality and greenhouse gas emissions inventories

• Reducing emissions impacts requires a shift from assessing emissions inventories toward an emphasis on climate and air quality impacts

• When assessing emissions must consider local, regional and global impacts

• Uncertainties remain in our understanding of climate and air quality impacts – addressing these uncertainties critical to defining significant and charting the way forward


March 19, 2008

Closing Observations

• Aviation greenhouse gas emissions may prove the most difficult long-term challenge – but cannot ignore air quality (and noise)

• Aspirational goals in fuel efficiency are essential – can we achieve emissions neutrality? Can we afford not to?

• How we operate the system- the pilots flying- can have a significant impact on aviation's emissions (and noise)


March 19, 2008

Thanks!

Overview of Administration Aviation Air Quality and...

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