Lester  &  Associates  

2016  

Overview: Former Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey is in a very strong position to win the Democratic primary nomination for the 4th District Congressional seat. Ivey has many advantages including positive name identification and broad voter support. Currently, Ivey is in a statistical tie with Anthony Brown. Brown has 34 percent, Ivey 30 percent, Joseline Peña-Melnyk has 9 percent and Dereck Davis has 4 percent. Twenty-three (23%) percent of 4th District voters are undecided. The following findings are from a poll of 400 likely democratic primary voters conducted from January 23-24, 2016. The poll is subject to a margin of error of 4.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. Key Findings: Ivey Leads in Prince George’s And Has The Most Favorable Image: In Prince George’s County Ivey has 34, Brown has 31, Peña-Melnyk has 9, Dereck Davis has 4 percent and 22 percent are undecided. Fifty-five (55%) of likely voters rate Ivey favorable and only 7 percent rate him unfavorable for a high 7.85 favorable-to-unfavorable (f/u) rating. Sixty-two percent (62%) of likely voters rate Brown favorable but 17 percent rate him unfavorable for a 3.64 f/u. Therefore, Brown’s unfavorable rating is more than twice as high as Ivey’s. This will inhibit his ability to develop additional voter support. Joseline Peña-Melnyk and Dereck Davis Are Non-Factors: Both Joseline Peña-Melnyk and Dereck Davis are not known well enough to be competitive at this

 

 

point. Only 17 percent rate Peña- Melnyk favorable while 7 percent rate her unfavorable for a low 2.4 f/u. Therefore, 76 percent of likely voters do not know her well enough to rate her. Dereck Davis has a favorable rating of 22 percent rate and 7 percent rate him unfavorable for a low 3.14 f/u. Seventy-one (71%) of likely voters cannot rate Davis. Conclusion: Glenn Ivey is in a very strong position to win the Democratic nomination for the 4th District. He is the most popular candidate and his voter support is broad and wide.