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Overview: Global and Pakistan’s Water Resources and Challenges

by

Ashfaq Mahmood (Retd Federal Secretary)

18 December 2014 LEAD Cohort 18

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Organization of Presentation

Global Water Resources

Pakistan’s Water Resources

Total volume of Water on Earth is about 1.4 billion Km3 (1.135 billion MAF)

Freshwater is around 35 million Km3, or about 2.5% of the total volume. (28.375 million MAF)

About 24 million Km3 (27 million MAF) or 70 percent of fresh water is in the form of ice and snow and about 30% is ground water.

Freshwater lakes and rivers contain an estimated 0.105 million Km3 or around 0.3 %. (0.105million Km3 comprises of: Lakes: 67.5%, Soil Moisture 12%, Atmosphere 9.5%, wet land 8.5%, Rivers 1.5%, Vegetation: 1%)

The total usable freshwater supply for ecosystems and humans is about 0.2 million Km3 of water - less than 1 percent of all freshwater resources.

Water scarcity already affects more than 40 percent of the people on our planet. By 2025, 1.8 billion people and 2/3rd of the world’s population under water stress

Phenomenon of Climate Change

Green House Gasses Trap Heat

(CO2,CH4,N2O and Fluorinated Gasses)

Global Warming due to GHG

Climate ChangeMajor changes in temperature (Global warming) ,

precipitation, or wind patterns

Effects of Climate Change

Increase in air temperature:i. 1906—2005 by 0.74 C (0.44 C occurring during 1980—2005)ii. Additional 4 C by 2050iii. 1—7 C by 2070

Increase in sea level:i. 3—16 cm by 2030ii. 7—50 cm by 2070

Estimated 8.4---10% reduction in precipitation in next 50 Years (2050)

Concentration of rains and snow/glacier melt flows in summer. Lesser non-monsoon flows and prolonged dry spells (droughts)

affecting agriculture. Increased summer flows in shorter time spans accentuating floods

in next few Decades. Shortages in the long run. Greater Frequency of floods .

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Effects of Climate Change (Contd)

More ◦ glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF), ◦ Cyclones, ◦ El Ninos, ◦ Heat Waves,◦ Tornados, ◦ Snow Avalanches, ◦ Dust Storms due to soil erosions, ◦ Tsunamis,◦ Effects on coastal systems, ◦ Ecosystems (coral reef communities, mangroves, wetland,

fish etc) ,◦ Land slides, etc

◦ Estimated cost of adapting to the impacts of a 2°C rise in global av. temperature is US$70 to $100 billion per year between 2020—2050

Some Impacts of Climate Change on Life and Society

Human Life (Affect Poorest of the Poor )◦ Drinking, sanitation, food/agriculture, health, Industry,

Mining Natural Ecology

◦ Birds, plants, trees, animals, fish, microorganisms, soil and people

Economy◦ GDP, Industries, Agriculture, Exports, Labour employment,

Hydro Power– lesser capacity , increased variability, increased cost

Poverty, food Insecurity, and electricity prices, urban migration, deterioration of rural life and environments.

World Water Challenges Pressures on Water

◦ Rapid Urbanization◦ Climate Change◦ Food Security◦ Demands of sectors other than Domestic and Agriculture sectors.◦ Pollution, Quality, Environments, Eco-systems

Current Situation:◦ 85% of the world population lives in the driest half of the planet.◦ Clean drinking Water not accessible by 780 million people almost 2.5 billion

without adequate sanitation. ◦ Agriculture accounts for ~70 to 90 % of global freshwater withdrawals ◦ 2 billion people worldwide depend on groundwater, which includes

approximately 300 transboundary aquifer systems.◦ Six to eight million people die annually from the disasters and water-related

diseases. Future Outlook

◦ Declining per capita availability due to population growth.◦ Predicted increase in food demand of 70% by 2050.◦ Effects of Climate Change—More intense floods, shortages, glacier melt◦ Estimated cost of adapting to the impacts of a 2°C rise in global av.

temperature is US$70 to $100 billion per year between 2020—2050

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Water Resources (Pakistan)

Major Rivers in Pakistan and India

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Occupied-Disputed Territory

13

Indus Basin Replacement Works

C-J

T-PT-S

S-M

R-Q

Q-B

B-S II

M-R

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COMMON RIVERS WITH AFGHANISTANIN KPK

DURAND LINE

GOMAL R.GOMAL

PESHAWAR

LEGENDDURAND LINE

DERA ISMAIL KHAN

INDUS R.

CITY

RIVER

BANNU

KULACHI

ISA KHEL

KOHAT

TARBELA DAM

ATTOCK

KABUL R.

KABUL

KAITU R.

GARDEZ

TOCHI R.

KURRAM R.

JALALABAD

KONAR R.

WARSAK DAM

SWAT R.

CHITRAL R.

A F G H A N I S T A N

P A K I S T A N

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1. Glacier and Snow MeltAbout 80 %of Water is received in Indus System through glacier & snow melt.

2. Rainfall Pakistan is one of the world’s most

arid countries – over 75% of it receives rainfall less than 250 mm annually and 20% of it less than 125 mm.

3. Seasonal Availability Availability Kharif: 82%, Rabi: 18%

Sources of Surface Water

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AVERAGE ANNUAL FLOWS OF WESTERN RIVERS(Post Tarbela 1976-2008)(Canal Diversion=104 MAF)

M AF

River Inflow

*Average Maximum MinimumWater

Requirement as per 1991 Accord

Kharif 115.37 141.53

(1991 - 92) 79.85

(2001- 02) 77.34

+ 1.8

Rabi 25.14 35.14

(1990 - 91)

16.56 (2000 -

01)

37.01+ 1.2

Annual 140.68 172.1

(1991- 92) 97.13

(2001- 02) 114.35

+ 3.0

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Effects of Climate Change (Pakistan)

1. Glacier melt resulting in more water in next 30-50 years followed by severe reduction.

2. Higher degree of variability of water flows

3. More extreme events like droughts, floods, cloud burst, cyclones, sea water rise, salt intrusion, avalanches etc.

4. Change in pattern of monsoon systems---shift towards east.

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Water Use and Demand

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WATER USE PATTERN

Drinking and Sinitation

6%

Industrial 2%

Irrigation92%

Projected87%

Industrial 5%

Domestic8%

2005

2030

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CANAL DIVERSIONS104 MAF

CANAL WATER AVAILABLE AT FARM HEAD 57.4 MAF

NET WATER AVAILABILITY AT FARM HEAD 107.7 MAF

NET WATER AVAILABILITY FOR CROP CONSUMPTIVE USE 80.8 MAF

Conveyance Losses 46.6 MAF (44.8%) (Canal & Distributaries 22

MAF (21%) & Watercourses 24.6 MAF

(30%))

Field Losses 27 MAF (25%)

Ground Water 50.3 MAF

Rainfall Contribution: Depends !Overall efficiency of use of surface water=.79*.7*.75= 41.5 %. Achievable 55%

Average Water Resource Availability and Use

Water requirement: 101.7 MAFShort fall =101.7-80.8=20.9

MAF If average rainfall= 13.4 MAF, Deficit= 7.5 MAF

Surface Water Avail 141 MAF• Down Stream Kotri 31

MAF• River Basin Losses 04-06

MAF

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Total Land Area 79.61

Total Area reported 57.76

Forest Area 3.8-4.26

Total Cultivable Area 33.77

Cultivated Area 22.10-24.64

Not cultivated but otherwise fit 8-11

Irrigated Area 18.04-18.67

Canal Irrigated Area 6.81

Canal and Tubewells 7.4

Wells and Tubewells 3.65

Land Utilization Million Hectares

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan (2011-12)

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Water Requirements and Availability at Farmgate (Estimates)

Sr. No. SECTOR Year 2004

Year 2025Improved yields and efficiencies*

Business as usual

1 Agriculture 111.35 120 1352 Water use above RIM stations 3.0 6.00 6.003 Drinking and Sanitation 8.2 12.20 12.20

4 Industrial 3.0 3.80 3.80Sub-Total 125.55 142 157

Availability (including local water harvested/pumping besides main river water and ground water for agriculture)

113 113 113

6 Water shortage 12 29 44

7 Estimated Escapages below Kotri

7.5** 7.5** 7.5**

All Figures in MAF

*Assuming 50% increase in crop yields and 22% increase in efficiency**Tentative figure in the Water Accord was 10 MAF. As per Studies Average figure of 7.5 MAF is adopted.

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ESCAPAGE BELOW KOTRIHYDROLOGICAL YEAR FROM APRIL TO MARCH

Note: Based on data supplied by I&P Deptt: Govt. of Sindh

1976

.77

1977

.78

1978

.79

1979

.80

1980

.81

1981

.82

1982

.83

1983

.84

1984

.85

1985

.86

1986

.87

1987

.88

1988

.89

1989

.90

1990

.91

1991

.92

1992

.93

1993

.94

1994

.95

1995

.96

1996

.97

1997

.98

1998

.99

1999

.00

2000

.01

2001

.02

2002

.03

2003

.04

2004

.05

2005

.06

2006

.07

2007

.08

2008

.09

2009

.10

2010

.11

2011

.12

2012

.13

2013

.140

20

40

60

80

100

69.08

30.39

80.60

29.81

20.10

33.79

9.68

45.90

29.55

10.97

26.90

17.53

52.86

17.22

42.34

53.29

81.49

29.10

91.86

62.81

45.45

20.74

35.23

8.84

0.741.922.15

20.17

0.29

24.5321.72

15.82

5.824.06

54.51

14.24

6.01

18.28

Ann

ual D

isch

arge

(M

AF

)

Years

29.89 MAF (1976.77-2013.14)

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Water Storage Dams

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Current Live Storage Capacity (MAF)

Loss due to higher operating levels of Tarbela =0.511 MAF

Rate of loss at Tarbela = 103,000 Acre Feet per Year

Rate of loss at Mangla = 32,000 Acre Feet per Year

Rate of loss at Chashma = 22,000 Acre Feet per Year

1% of original capacity lost per year.

RESERVOIR

ORIGINAL LIVE

STORAGE

LIVE STORAGE

2004

LIVE STORAGE

2014

TARBELLA9.68

(1976) 7.16 6.45

MANGLA5.34

(1967) 4.53 6.63—7.39

CHASHMA0.87

(1971) 0.44 0.28

TOTAL 15.89 12.13 14.12

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AVERAGE ANNUAL FLOW AND STORAGE CAPACITY OF DAMS OF SOME MAJOR RIVER BASINS

Sr. No. River Basin

Average Annual flow

(MAF)

No. of Dams

Storage Capacity

(MAF)

% age Storage

1 Colorado 12 3 59.62 497

2 Nile 38 1 132 475

3Sutlej BiasIndia (Total)

32750

54,636

11.32245

3533

4 Yellow River 345 7 68.95 20

5 Columbia 179 3 34 19

6Indus & others Rivers 145 3 13.64 13

7 Yangtze 870 1 32 4

8 World 20,000 - 8,000 40

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Hydro Power

Potential : Over 60000 MW (Storage and Run

of River) Installed : 6481 MWCost of Generation: 2-6 cents/KWh

against 12-17 cents /KWh for thermal generation

Current Hydro-Thermal Mix : 30:70

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Productivity & Efficiency of Use of Water

Water Productivity

Water productivity for wheat

0

0.5

1

1.5

California Bhakra,India Punjab,Pakistan

Kilograms per cubicmeter of transpiration

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Drinking Water

Water Quality Status-Pakistan85% of samples tested were unfit for human

consumption Protection Agency, in14 districts of Punjab (EPA)

Surface water sources ( lakes & rivers) have massively been polluted (Tanneries, Chemical Wastes, Domestic Garbage Dump)

75% of water in Islamabad and 87% in Rawalpindi are unsafe (WB-CWRAS Paper 8, 2005).

An excess of arsenic and fluoride concentrations

In Sindh almost 95% of shallow groundwater supplies are bacteriologically contaminated (Pak-SECA 2006).

Health Cost and Lost Earning on account of drinking water, sanitation, hygiene= Rs112 billion/ annum (Over Rs 300 million/Day)

Contamination Intrusion RoutesDistribution Network

Groundwater Arsenic Contamination

Mr. Azad, chronic arsenic patient-Bangladesh Arsenic Patient ( 1100 ppb) from Nawabshah- Pakistan

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Ground Water

Over Mining

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Summary ofIssues and Challenges

Major Water Resource Issues and Challenges (Pakistan)

1. Declining Water Availability per capita 2. Future Water Availability to Decline due to Climate

Change3. More Floods, Droughts, variability of Flows on the Cards4. Ground Water Exploitation Need to be Regulated.5. Water Shortage Agri: 7.5 MAF (present), 26 MAF (2025)6. More Inter-sectoral Competition for Water 7. Low Productivity and Efficiency of Transmission and Use8. Cultivable land available but not yet cultivated.9. More Seasonal Variability: Availability Kharif: 85%,

Rabi: 15%10. New Storages – Victim of Lack of Consensus11. Under Utilization of Hydro Generation Potential12. Drinking Water : Poor Quality, Inadequate Quantity,

Infrastructure, neglect, apathy13. Sanitation ???14. Trans-boundary water threats

15. Financing ???

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Possible Response to Issues and Challenges

1. Population Control2. Prepare for Climate Change. More Dams– Seasonal and Yearly

Carry Over3. Invest in rehabilitation of infrastructure and regular maintenance.4. Use modern technology and practices to improve productivity ,

efficiency, watershed management conservation, harvesting and re-use

5. Special Attention to Drinking Water and Sanitation6. Protect Trans-boundary Water7. Use Media to educate masses8. Financing9. Price Water properly10. Regulators for monitoring quality, curbing wastages, ground

water extraction and proper service to ordinary users.11. Improve Governance and build Human Resources12. Build Knowledge, Collect Knowledge, Disseminate Knowledge

Water has to be on the centre stage

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THANK YOU