Overheat DA

download Overheat DA

of 35

Transcript of Overheat DA

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    1/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    Chinese Overheat DA Index

    Chinese Overheat DA Index ..................................1

    Chinese Overheat 1NC .............................................2Chinese Overheat 1NC .............................................3

    Overheat ni!"eness # $oft#%andin& No' ..............(Overheat ni!"eness # $oft#%andin& No' ..............5Overheat ni!"eness # $oft#%andin& No' ..............)Overheat ni!"eness # $oft %andin& No' ...............*Overheat ni!"eness # $oft %andin& No' ...............+Overheat ni!"eness # ,efor-s No' ......................

    Overheat /in s # enera/ .........................................10Overheat %in s # enera/ .......................................11Overheat %in s # enera/ .......................................12

    Overheat %in s # enera/ .......................................13Overheat %in s # Asset De /etion ...........................1(Overheat /in s # Inf/ation ........................................15Overheat /in s # Overinvest-ent ............................1)Overheat %in s # Overinvest-ent ..........................1*Overheat /in s # Overinvest-ent ............................1+Overheat %in s # Overinvest-ent ..........................1Overheat /in s # Overinvest-ent 4an in& ...........20Overheat %in s # ,a id ro'th nder-ines ,efor-s 21Overheat /in s # ,a id ro'th "nder-ines refor-s 22Overheat /in s # ,a id ro'th "nder-ines refor-s 23Overheat /in s # $ocia/ $tratification .....................2(

    $ocia/ $tratification I- acts6 ................................25$ocia/ $tratification I- acts6 ................................2)

    A78 9e $ "r ,efor-s # $o/vin& Overheat .............2*A78 $/o' &ro'th 'orse Chinese Econo-ic Co//a se 2+A78 $/o' &ro'th 'orse Chinese Econo-ic Co//a se 2A78 $/o' &ro'th is 'orse Econo-: co//a se ......30

    Overheat I- act # ;i/itar: Co" ...........................31Overheat I- acts # /o

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    2/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    Chinese Econo-: Co//a se Inevita

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    3/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    Chinese Overheat 1NC

    C. 7he I- act is 9or/d 9ar III7he $trai&hts 7i-es ) 2+ 20037o- =/ate C%A rofessor neo#cons a

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    4/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    :"an a :ear#on#:ear increase of 25.( ercent 3.2 ercenta&e oints /o'er than the sa-e eriod of /ast :ear. 7he/o'#/eve/ invest-ent in so-e ener&:#cons"-in& and hi&h# o//"tin& ind"stries has

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    5/35

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    6/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    the first !"arter sho'ed a :ear#on#:ear rise of .5 ercenta&e oints a/-ost the sa-e as /ast :earGs there are si&nssho'in& that ChinaGs econo-: is ossi

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    7/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    &overn-ent sho"/d stae its -acro#contro/ o/ic: and -a e f"// "se of -ar et too/s in ad "stin& econo-icstr"ct"re han& s"&&ested.

    Overheat Uniqueness - Soft Landing NowChinese &ro'th is sta

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    8/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    have co-e to "nderstand that enhancin& their /e&iti-ac: is a -atter of s"rviva/. 7o &ive the eo /e a &reater sta e inthe o/itica/ rocess H" and 9en are increasin& trans arenc: in &overn-ent ractices e.

    Overheat !in"s - #enera!

    4rea nec econo-ic &ro'th 'i// ca"se a

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    9/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    unsustainable,o

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    10/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    BAn Econo-ic 4"

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    11/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    invest-ent and hea/th: acco"nt s"r /"s cannot

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    12/35

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    13/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    7he Econo-ist 5 13 0( BChinaLs Econo-:8 7i-e to hit the 4rea shtt 8 '''.econo-ist.co- o inion dis /a:stor:.cf-Mstor:_idT2))+1+2 6

    A/-ost ever:

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    14/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    7hat contradiction e-er&es fro- ChinaJs -ix of o'erf"/ rea/ econo-ic deve/o -ent co- /ete 'ith risin&s :scra ers s-o in& factor: chi-ne:s and a ra id/: &ro'in& s:ste- of nationa/ hi&h'a:s a// thrivin& a/on&side afee

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    15/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    If invest-ent s/o's the econo-: as a 'ho/e 'i// /"--et. China she redicts cannot esca e Bthe nat"ra/vio/ence visited on a// deve/o in& co"ntries that &o thro"&h s"ch

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    16/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    Overheat Lin"s - Ra$id #rowth Under ines Refor s

    ,a id Chinese &ro'th "nder-ines necessar: o/itica/ and econo-ic refor-s # ca"sin& revo/"tion chaosand co//a se;inxin 1ei% irector% China 1rogram% Carnegie ,ndowment or 3nternational 1eacean"ar: ?e

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    17/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    Overheat !in"s - Ra$id #rowth under ines refor s

    Econo-ic &ro'th covers " the need for econo-ic and o/itica/ refor-s # ca"sin& the -idd/e c/ass to rise" a&ainst the CC=E/i>aation8econo-ic &ro'th and increased connection 'ith the o"tside 'or/d 'o"/d s "r the deve/o -ent of a Chinese -idd/ec/ass that 'o"/d in t"rn ress for ca ita/is- de-ocrac: and eace. 4"t in fact a/tho"&h China has &otten richerecono-ic refor-s have not /ed direct/: to o/itica/ ones. Econo-ic /iation is indeed

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    18/35

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    19/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    Overheat !in"s - So'ia! Stratifi'ation

    ,a id econo-ic deve/o -ent 'i// "n/eash socia/ tensions that 'i// ca"se China to i- /ode #

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    20/35

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    21/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    to overheat,o

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    22/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    estate. ChinaJs centra/

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    23/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    eno"&h to ens"re s"staina

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    24/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    ,o

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    25/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    deficits. ChinaGs "rchases of A-erican 7reas"r:

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    26/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    A*+ Overheat

    Ine!"a/ities and "ne- /o:-ent 'i// not ca"se a

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    27/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    'i//

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    28/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    A*+ Overheat - refor s so!ve

    ChinaJs econo-: is ra id/: refor- and

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    29/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    " er eche/on of the Chinese &overn-ent is not

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    30/35

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    31/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    in 2003. As that &ro'th s/o's the non# erfor-in& /oan roe ca ita/ -ar ets. If China 'ants to ens are soverei&nW it is entire/: ossi

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    32/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    Chinese 'ono . Co!!a$se Inevita0!e - Laundr. List

    Other factors cr"sh /onter- Chinese econo-ic &ro'th "nderva/"ed c"rrenc: non# erfor-in&

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    33/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    34/35

  • 8/10/2019 Overheat DA

    35/35

    Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA

    ChinaGs risin& -i/itar: o'er in the re&ion and -a: a-end its constit"tion in order to see this thro"&h. 7heA.$.E.A.N. states are "rs"in& a strate&: of inter/oc in& their econo-ies 'ith ChinaGs 'hi/e /oo in& to the .$. andIndia for