Overheat DA
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8/10/2019 Overheat DA
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Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA
Chinese Overheat DA Index
Chinese Overheat DA Index ..................................1
Chinese Overheat 1NC .............................................2Chinese Overheat 1NC .............................................3
Overheat ni!"eness # $oft#%andin& No' ..............(Overheat ni!"eness # $oft#%andin& No' ..............5Overheat ni!"eness # $oft#%andin& No' ..............)Overheat ni!"eness # $oft %andin& No' ...............*Overheat ni!"eness # $oft %andin& No' ...............+Overheat ni!"eness # ,efor-s No' ......................
Overheat /in s # enera/ .........................................10Overheat %in s # enera/ .......................................11Overheat %in s # enera/ .......................................12
Overheat %in s # enera/ .......................................13Overheat %in s # Asset De /etion ...........................1(Overheat /in s # Inf/ation ........................................15Overheat /in s # Overinvest-ent ............................1)Overheat %in s # Overinvest-ent ..........................1*Overheat /in s # Overinvest-ent ............................1+Overheat %in s # Overinvest-ent ..........................1Overheat /in s # Overinvest-ent 4an in& ...........20Overheat %in s # ,a id ro'th nder-ines ,efor-s 21Overheat /in s # ,a id ro'th "nder-ines refor-s 22Overheat /in s # ,a id ro'th "nder-ines refor-s 23Overheat /in s # $ocia/ $tratification .....................2(
$ocia/ $tratification I- acts6 ................................25$ocia/ $tratification I- acts6 ................................2)
A78 9e $ "r ,efor-s # $o/vin& Overheat .............2*A78 $/o' &ro'th 'orse Chinese Econo-ic Co//a se 2+A78 $/o' &ro'th 'orse Chinese Econo-ic Co//a se 2A78 $/o' &ro'th is 'orse Econo-: co//a se ......30
Overheat I- act # ;i/itar: Co" ...........................31Overheat I- acts # /o
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Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA
Chinese Econo-: Co//a se Inevita
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Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA
Chinese Overheat 1NC
C. 7he I- act is 9or/d 9ar III7he $trai&hts 7i-es ) 2+ 20037o- =/ate C%A rofessor neo#cons a
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:"an a :ear#on#:ear increase of 25.( ercent 3.2 ercenta&e oints /o'er than the sa-e eriod of /ast :ear. 7he/o'#/eve/ invest-ent in so-e ener&:#cons"-in& and hi&h# o//"tin& ind"stries has
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Harvard 2005 ___of___ Chinese Econ DA
the first !"arter sho'ed a :ear#on#:ear rise of .5 ercenta&e oints a/-ost the sa-e as /ast :earGs there are si&nssho'in& that ChinaGs econo-: is ossi
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&overn-ent sho"/d stae its -acro#contro/ o/ic: and -a e f"// "se of -ar et too/s in ad "stin& econo-icstr"ct"re han& s"&&ested.
Overheat Uniqueness - Soft Landing NowChinese &ro'th is sta
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have co-e to "nderstand that enhancin& their /e&iti-ac: is a -atter of s"rviva/. 7o &ive the eo /e a &reater sta e inthe o/itica/ rocess H" and 9en are increasin& trans arenc: in &overn-ent ractices e.
Overheat !in"s - #enera!
4rea nec econo-ic &ro'th 'i// ca"se a
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unsustainable,o
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BAn Econo-ic 4"
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invest-ent and hea/th: acco"nt s"r /"s cannot
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7he Econo-ist 5 13 0( BChinaLs Econo-:8 7i-e to hit the 4rea shtt 8 '''.econo-ist.co- o inion dis /a:stor:.cf-Mstor:_idT2))+1+2 6
A/-ost ever:
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7hat contradiction e-er&es fro- ChinaJs -ix of o'erf"/ rea/ econo-ic deve/o -ent co- /ete 'ith risin&s :scra ers s-o in& factor: chi-ne:s and a ra id/: &ro'in& s:ste- of nationa/ hi&h'a:s a// thrivin& a/on&side afee
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If invest-ent s/o's the econo-: as a 'ho/e 'i// /"--et. China she redicts cannot esca e Bthe nat"ra/vio/ence visited on a// deve/o in& co"ntries that &o thro"&h s"ch
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Overheat Lin"s - Ra$id #rowth Under ines Refor s
,a id Chinese &ro'th "nder-ines necessar: o/itica/ and econo-ic refor-s # ca"sin& revo/"tion chaosand co//a se;inxin 1ei% irector% China 1rogram% Carnegie ,ndowment or 3nternational 1eacean"ar: ?e
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Overheat !in"s - Ra$id #rowth under ines refor s
Econo-ic &ro'th covers " the need for econo-ic and o/itica/ refor-s # ca"sin& the -idd/e c/ass to rise" a&ainst the CC=E/i>aation8econo-ic &ro'th and increased connection 'ith the o"tside 'or/d 'o"/d s "r the deve/o -ent of a Chinese -idd/ec/ass that 'o"/d in t"rn ress for ca ita/is- de-ocrac: and eace. 4"t in fact a/tho"&h China has &otten richerecono-ic refor-s have not /ed direct/: to o/itica/ ones. Econo-ic /iation is indeed
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Overheat !in"s - So'ia! Stratifi'ation
,a id econo-ic deve/o -ent 'i// "n/eash socia/ tensions that 'i// ca"se China to i- /ode #
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to overheat,o
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estate. ChinaJs centra/
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eno"&h to ens"re s"staina
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,o
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deficits. ChinaGs "rchases of A-erican 7reas"r:
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A*+ Overheat
Ine!"a/ities and "ne- /o:-ent 'i// not ca"se a
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'i//
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A*+ Overheat - refor s so!ve
ChinaJs econo-: is ra id/: refor- and
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" er eche/on of the Chinese &overn-ent is not
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in 2003. As that &ro'th s/o's the non# erfor-in& /oan roe ca ita/ -ar ets. If China 'ants to ens are soverei&nW it is entire/: ossi
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Chinese 'ono . Co!!a$se Inevita0!e - Laundr. List
Other factors cr"sh /onter- Chinese econo-ic &ro'th "nderva/"ed c"rrenc: non# erfor-in&
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ChinaGs risin& -i/itar: o'er in the re&ion and -a: a-end its constit"tion in order to see this thro"&h. 7heA.$.E.A.N. states are "rs"in& a strate&: of inter/oc in& their econo-ies 'ith ChinaGs 'hi/e /oo in& to the .$. andIndia for