OVERALL D+ - States At Riskassets.statesatrisk.org/summaries/Idaho_report.pdf · • The state’s...
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IDAHO SOME ACTIONS ALREADY TAKEN WEAKNESSES • The state’s Hazard Mitigation Plan, technical assistance programs, disaster response plans, and emergency communications materials are helping Idaho prepare for current risks across all sectors. • The Idaho Hazard Mitigation Plan discusses the potential impacts and implications of climate change with respect to extreme heat. • The Idaho State Water Plan discusses potential implementation strategies to increase resilience to future extreme heat events. • The Idaho Energy Assurance Plan provides strategies for addressing impacts from wildfire and drought on the energy sector. • No evidence of detailed climate change vulnerability assessments across all sectors examined (except for water sector). • No evidence of a detailed statewide climate change adaptation plan across the sectors examined, except for drought. • No evidence of official state funding, policies, or guidelines for increasing resilience to wildfire risks across the sectors examined. Very limited evidence for extreme heat and drought. • No evidence of action to incorporate climate change projections associated with wildfire into state-level programs, investments, and activities. Very limited evidence for extreme heat and drought. • Minimal information published on Idaho’s future wildfire risks and no evidence of public outreach being conducted regarding the state’s future wildfire risks. Limited evidence for extreme heat and drought. Implementing Resilience Actions Addressing Current Risks Conducting Vulnerability Assessments Planning for Adaptation Extensive Strong Limited Fair None ACTION TAKEN: Extreme Heat Drought Wildfire Inland Flooding Coastal Flooding EXTREME HEAT: DROUGHT: WILDFIRE: INLAND FLOODING: COASTAL FLOODING: OVERALL: D+ D- C C+ — — A B C D F OVERALL GRADE: D+ Idaho faces considerable and significantly increasing threat levels from extreme heat, drought, and wildfire between now and 2050. Idaho scores an overall grade of D+ on the Report Card, with grades ranging from a D- for extreme heat to a C+ for wildfire. The grades are relative to other states, and relative to the magnitude of the climate threats themselves. Like most states, Idaho has taken strong action to address its current drought and wildfire risks, but it has taken only limited action to address its current extreme heat risks—much less than most states. Idaho has also taken only limited action to understand its future climate risks and almost no action to plan for them or implement adaptation measures.
Transcript of OVERALL D+ - States At Riskassets.statesatrisk.org/summaries/Idaho_report.pdf · • The state’s...
IDAHO
SOME ACTIONS ALREADY TAKEN
WEAKNESSES
• The state’s Hazard Mitigation Plan, technical assistance programs, disaster response plans, and emergency communications materials are helping Idaho prepare for current risks across all sectors.
• The Idaho Hazard Mitigation Plan discusses the potential impacts and implications of climate change with respect to extreme heat.
• The Idaho State Water Plan discusses potential implementation strategies to increase resilience to future extreme heat events.
• The Idaho Energy Assurance Plan provides strategies for addressing impacts from wildfire and drought on the energy sector.
• No evidence of detailed climate change vulnerability assessments across all sectors examined (except for water sector).
• No evidence of a detailed statewide climate change adaptation plan across the sectors examined, except for drought.
• No evidence of official state funding, policies, or guidelines for increasing resilience to wildfire risks across the sectors examined. Very limited evidence for extreme heat and drought.
• No evidence of action to incorporate climate change projections associated with wildfire into state-level programs, investments, and activities. Very limited evidence for extreme heat and drought.
• Minimal information published on Idaho’s future wildfire risks and no evidence of public outreach being conducted regarding the state’s future wildfire risks. Limited evidence for extreme heat and drought.
Implementing Resilience Actions
Addressing Current Risks
Conducting VulnerabilityAssessments
Planning for Adaptation
Extensive
Strong
Limited
Fair
None
ACTION TAKEN:
Extreme Heat
Drought
Wildfire
Inland Flooding
Coastal Flooding
EXTREME HEAT:
DROUGHT:
WILDFIRE:
INLAND FLOODING:
COASTAL FLOODING:
OVERALL: D+D-
C
C+
—
—
ABCDF
OVERALL GRADE:
D+Idaho faces considerable and significantly increasing threat levels from extreme heat, drought, and wildfire between now and 2050. Idaho scores an overall grade of D+ on the Report Card, with grades ranging from a D- for extreme heat to a C+ for wildfire. The grades are relative to other states, and relative to the magnitude of the climate threats themselves. Like most states, Idaho has taken strong action to address its current drought and wildfire risks, but it has taken only limited action to address its current extreme heat risks—much less than most states. Idaho has also taken only limited action to understand its future climate risks and almost no action to plan for them or implement adaptation measures.
012345 million
OVERALL:
DROUGHT:
WILDFIRE:
INLAND FLOODING:
EXTREME HEAT:
COASTAL FLOODING:
EXTREME HEAT: D-D+
C
C+
—
—
D-
KEY FINDINGS:
Lowest Highest
BELOW AVERAGE
THREAT LEVEL:
0% 100%
BELOW AVERAGE
PREPAREDNESS LEVEL:
The preparedness grade represents how well a state is preparing for its threat level, relative to all states evaluated for that threat. It compares a state’s position in the distribution of threat levels to its position in the distribution of preparedness scores. Thus two states with the same absolute preparedness score might receive different grades, depending on their levels of threat—a state with a higher threat level would receive a lower grade. For details, see the methodology.
Idaho scores a D- for its below average level of preparedness in the face of a below average overall extreme heat threat. Currently, Idaho faces a below average level of threat from heat among the lower 48 states. While most states have taken strong or extensive action to address their current heat risks, Idaho has taken only a fair amount of action. Idaho has taken no action, aside from the water sector, to plan for or implement strategies to address its future heat risks. The water sector has taken only limited action: the Idaho State Water Plan includes potential implementation strategies to increase resilience to future heat events.
ABCDF
IDAHO COMPARED TO OTHER STATES:
EXTREME HEAT THREAT DID YOU KNOW?Extreme Heat Threat to Vulnerable Populations†
Rank(among states) 27th 33th
† Average number of heat wave days per year times total vulnerable popula-tion. A score of 1 represents 1 vulnerable person exposed to 1 heat wave day.
33th
• Currently, Idaho averages fewer than 5 days a year classified as dangerous or extremely dangerous according to the NWS Heat Index. By 2050, Idaho is projected to see the number of such days double to nearly 10 a year.
• By 2050, the typical number of heat wave days in Idaho is projected to triple from nearly 15 to more than 45 days each year.
• Idaho has more than 40,000 people 65 and older, or under 5 years old, living below the poverty line, which is below average among the lower 48 states. These groups are considered to be especially vulnerable to extreme heat.
Average annual number of heat wave days: Average number of days each year on which the maximum temperature exceeds the 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature in the baseline period (1991-2010) for at least three consecutive days.
IDAHO
2000 2030 2050
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NO
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NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
n/a
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
n/a
EXTREME HEAT:EXAMPLE CRITERIA
D-A subset of the criteria used to develop Idaho’s extreme heat preparedness grade.
Tran
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Wat
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Health
Com
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Does the State Hazard Mitigation Plan cover extreme heat?
Does the state have an extreme heat emergency response plan that is updated routinely?
Does the state provide extreme heat emergency communication materials for citizens?
Has the state published information on how the frequency or severity of extreme heat events may change in the future?
Has the state conducted extreme heat vulnerability assessments for each sector?
Is the state tracking extreme heat impacts?
Is there a statewide climate change adaptation plan covering extreme heat?
Is there a statewide implementation plan for climate change adaptation?
Does the state have sector-specific extreme heat adaptation plans?
Are there optional state guidelines for resilient activities (e.g., construction)?
Are there state requirements for resilient activities (e.g., construction)?
Is there evidence that the state is implementing extreme heat adaptation policy/guidelines?
ADDRESSING CURRENT RISKS
IMPLEMENTING RESILIENCE ACTIONS
PLANNING FOR ADAPTATION
CONDUCTING VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS
“n/a” indicates that the sector is either insensitive to the threat or the state does not have a significant role.
IDAHO
OVERALL:
DROUGHT:
WILDFIRE:
INLAND FLOODING:
COASTAL FLOODING:
EXTREME HEAT: D-
D+
CC+
—
—
IDAHO
DROUGHT: C
Lowest Highest
ABOVE AVERAGE
THREAT LEVEL:
0% 100%
AVERAGE
PREPAREDNESS LEVEL:
The preparedness grade represents how well a state is preparing for its threat level, relative to all states evaluated for that threat. It compares a state’s position in the distribution of threat levels to its position in the distribution of preparedness scores. Thus two states with the same absolute preparedness score might receive different grades, depending on their levels of threat—a state with a higher threat level would receive a lower grade. For details, see the methodology.
Idaho earns a C for its average level of preparedness in the face of an above average overall drought threat. Currently, Idaho faces an above average threat, ranking it among the top 10 states of the 36 states assessed for drought, and it has taken strong action to prepare for its current risks. Idaho has also taken a fair amount of action to understand its future changes in drought risks. For example, the Idaho Water Resources Board conducted a pilot climate change impact study for the Rathdrum Prairie Region to inform water management and planning. Despite beginning to understand future changes in risks and vulnerability, Idaho has taken almost no action to plan for or implement strategies to address future drought risks.
ABCDF
IDAHO COMPARED TO OTHER STATES:
KEY FINDINGS:
0306090
120150
DROUGHT THREATSummer Drought Threat (Index)
Rank(among states) 6th 9th 7th
• Currently, Idaho’s severity of widespread summer drought is above average among the 36 states assessed for drought threats.
• By 2050, the severity of widespread summer drought is projected to more than double; Idaho’s threat would remain above average and continue to rank in the top 10 worst affected states.
DID YOU KNOW?
Severity of widespread summer drought: Sum of soil moisture deficit (standard score) in the summer months for model grid cells where the standard score is less than -1, when at least 30% of grid cells in a state meet this criterion.
2000 2030 2050
DROUGHT:
IDAHO
CEXAMPLE CRITERIAA subset of the criteria used to develop Idaho’s drought preparedness grade.
“n/a” indicates that the sector is either insensitive to the threat or the state does not have a significant role.
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
n/a
NO
n/a
n/a
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Tran
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Wat
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Health
Com
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Does the State Hazard Mitigation Plan cover drought?
Does the state have a drought emergency response plan that is updated routinely?
Does the state provide drought emergency communication materials for citizens?
Has the state published information on how the frequency or severity of drought may change in the future?
Has the state conducted drought vulnerability assessments for each sector?
Is the state tracking drought impacts?
Is there a statewide climate change adaptation plan covering drought?
Is there a statewide implementation plan for climate change adaptation?
Does the state have sector-specific drought adaptation plans?
Are there optional state guidelines for resilient activities (e.g., construction)?
Are there state requirements for resilient activities (e.g., construction)?
Is there evidence that the state is implementing drought adaptation policy/guidelines?
ADDRESSING CURRENT RISKS
IMPLEMENTING RESILIENCE ACTIONS
PLANNING FOR ADAPTATION
CONDUCTING VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS
OVERALL:
DROUGHT:
WILDFIRE:
INLAND FLOODING:
COASTAL FLOODING:
EXTREME HEAT: D-
D+
C
C+—
—
IDAHO
C+
Lowest Highest
BELOW AVERAGE
THREAT LEVEL:
0% 100%
AVERAGE
PREPAREDNESS LEVEL:
The preparedness grade represents how well a state is preparing for its threat level, relative to all states evaluated for that threat. It compares a state’s position in the distribution of threat levels to its position in the distribution of preparedness scores. Thus two states with the same absolute preparedness score might receive different grades, depending on their levels of threat—a state with a higher threat level would receive a lower grade. For details, see the methodology.
Idaho earns a C+ for its average level of preparedness in the face of a below average overall wildfire threat. Today, Idaho faces a below average threat level among the 24 states assessed for wildfire, in part because it has a relatively low population living in the wildland-urban interface. And, like the majority of states, Idaho has taken strong action to address its current wildfire risks through its Hazard Mitigation Plan and the Firewise program. By 2050, however, Idaho’s wildfire threat is projected to more than quadruple, and it has taken only limited action to understand, plan for, or implement strategies to prepare for its future risks. Idaho has not conducted sector-specific wildfire vulnerability assessments, developed a climate change adaptation plan covering wildfire, or adopted policies and programs designed to address future wildfire risks.
ABCDF
IDAHO COMPARED TO OTHER STATES:
KEY FINDINGS:
WILDFIRE:
048121620
WILDFIRE THREATAnnual Days With High Wildfire Potential
Rank(among states) 20th 19th 18th
• Idaho has 560,000 people living within the wildland-urban interface, where developed land and wild lands converge and intersperse, and vulnerability to wildfire is elevated. This represents approximately 35 percent of Idaho’s population, which is below average among the 24 states assessed for wildfire threats.
• Currently, the number of days with high wildfire potential, weighted by vulnerable population, is below average. By 2050, this indicator is projected to more than quadruple, but the state is projected to continue to face a below average threat.
• By 2050, Idaho’s average number of days with high wildfire potential is projected to quadruple from fewer than 5 days to nearly 20 days a year.
DID YOU KNOW?
Average Annual Number of Days with High Wildfire Potential: Average number of days each year with Keetch-Byram Drought Index values exceeding 600.
2000 2030 2050
IDAHO
C+EXAMPLE CRITERIAA subset of the criteria used to develop Idaho’s wildfire preparedness grade.
WILDFIRE:
“n/a” indicates that the sector is either insensitive to the threat or the state does not have a significant role.
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
n/a
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
Tran
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Ener
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Wat
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Health
Com
mun
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Does the State Hazard Mitigation Plan cover wildfire?
Does the state have a wildfire emergency response plan that is updated routinely?
Does the state provide wildfire emergency communication materials for citizens?
Has the state published information on how the frequency or severity of wildfires may change in the future?
Has the state conducted wildfire vulnerability assessments for each sector?
Is the state tracking wildfire impacts?
Is there a statewide climate change adaptation plan covering wildfire?
Is there a statewide implementation plan for climate change adaptation?
Does the state have sector-specific wildfire adaptation plans?
Are there optional state guidelines for resilient activities (e.g., construction)?
Are there state requirements for resilient activities (e.g., construction)?
Is there evidence that the state is implementing wildfire adaptation policy/guidelines?
ADDRESSING CURRENT RISKS
IMPLEMENTING RESILIENCE ACTIONS
PLANNING FOR ADAPTATION
CONDUCTING VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS
