OV Diner 2019 Autonomous Transport Systems › wp-content › uploads › ... · © Ricardo plc...
Transcript of OV Diner 2019 Autonomous Transport Systems › wp-content › uploads › ... · © Ricardo plc...
© Ricardo plc 2019
OV Diner 2019Autonomous Transport Systems
Tom JansenGlobal Domain Leader Connected & Automated VehiclesRicardo PLC
2Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019
• Introduction & market overview
• Autonomous Vehicle technology today
• Safety & Cyber Security
• Q&A
Contents
3Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019
Our experience in ATS technical systems and (authority) processes
Ultra PRT –London Heathrow
EcoTwin Truck Platooning BHP Rail ATO ATO Thameslink
De Lijn Zaventem Airport
MASDAR Personal Rapid Transport
Phileas semi-automatic bus
WEpods peoplemover
4Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019
Autonomous Vehicles landscape
Automatic Train Operation
Often closed systems like Metro, Platform
Screen Doors. ATO increases capacity
and reliability.
PODSUrban environment,
low speed, fullyautonomous, no
steering wheel or driver. Innovation level and
media attention major drivers.
Commercial Heavy Duty
Automating the Dull, theDirty and the
Dangerous. Business case is leading: less
costs for fuel or driver, better safety.
Passenger CarsDriven from the top tier of car manufacturers,
upgrading from normalluxury passenger cars. ADAS systems, driver
as backup.
5Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019
Will Autonomous Vehicles lead to less public transport?
Observed trends in research show that Millennials:
• Own fewer cars than previous generations did1
• Drivers license rate is mostly dropping2
• Less money to spend3, yet spend more on transit1
• Want access to cars, without burden of ownership4
1) Klein & Smart, Millennials and car ownership: Less money, fewer cars
2) M. Sivak, University of Michigan, recent changes in the age composition of drivers in 15 countries
3) Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S.A.)4) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Spending on transit fares per adult in an individual's family by birth cohortand age, inflation-adjusted to 2013$,PSID2003–2013
6Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019
Will Autonomous Vehicles lead to less public transport?
• Enables better first and last mile transport, improving the attractiveness of public transport overall
• “Mobility as a Service” to become the new standard
• Benefits for the elderly, children and disabled& more acceptance of long distance commuting
• New challenges AND opportunities for Rail
Image source: travelspirit.io
7Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019
The introduction of autonomous vehicles on public road
Important to convince society, the authoritiesand ourselves that any autonomous vehicle
that is introduced, is
safe
Autonomous Vehicles can dramatically reduce thenumber of road accidents1,2
Transition phase towards full autonomy and full autonomous cars is especially challenging
[1] NHTSA (2008), National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey
[2] Fagnant and Kockelman (2013)
HOWEVER
8Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019
What issues are Automated Transport Systems facing?
9Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019
SOMEWHEREEVERYWHERE
Two major strategies for today
10Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019
Data source: California DMV Autonomous Vehicle disengagement & collision reports 2015-2018
How good are current driverless autonomous vehicles really?
The current ‘best’ autonomous vehicles need human interference to avoid an accident every 18.000km
(the worst every 1.8km)
11Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019
Recent survey among 5.000 Tesla model 3 owners shows a more subtle story:
• 90% is satisfied or very satisfied with safety of Autopilot
• 6 drivers claim Autopilot contributed to a collision
• 9 drivers claim Autopilot saved their lives
Practical experience with autonomous vehicles
“A deer jumped in front of me on a dark road at night. By the time my foot moved to the brake pedal, it
was already pressed to the floor!”
“Didn’t recognize lanes properly on a two way road and put me in
into oncoming traffic.”
“Phantom braking on autobahn, wrong speedlimits and following
braking from 130km/h to 50km/h.”“Failed to slow sufficiently
for tight bend, crossed center line, hit a truck.”
“I wasn’t paying attention, someone pulled in front of me and the car ran
right into them.”
“The car detected a pile-up in fog and applied the brakes/alerted driver and
began a lane change to avoid it before I took over. I believe it saved my life.”
““It moved me to the side in the blink of an eye when a car
suddenly changed lanes to where I was... The Autopilot
reacted crazy fast.”
source: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-tesla-model-3-survey/autopilot.html
12Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019
We can never be 100% sure. BUT:
Doing nothing at all will cost lives,
compared to what we could achieve.
How can we be sure Automated Vehicles are safe enough?
The ‘Swiss Cheese’ model
Gradually build confidence and slowly increasecomplexity of environment
13Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019
Safety Cases for Autonomous Vehicles
To efficiently prove the safety of your autonomous vehicle, an intelligently layered simulation, testing and validation
strategy needs to be chosen!
Not just for the vehicle, but for the system!
14Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019
Virtual Validation
Source: Autonomous Vehicles: Virtual Testing and Validation, Siemens Software
Virtual validation is essential to assure autonomous vehicles can Sense, Think and Act safely under all circumstances
15Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019
Cybersecurity
Project HoneyTrain experiment (2015)
• Model railway with representative hardware / industrial Siemens S7 PLC’s etc.
• 2,7M attacks in 6 weeks
• 41% of attacks from China
• Mainly automated port scans and dictionary attacks (username and pw)
Original security camera interface, replaced by hacker
16Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019
Cybersecurity issues
We do not always realize how many potentially vulnerable interfaces exist within modern car electronics
*) Spoofing is a type of scam where an intruder attempts to gain unauthorized access to a user's
system or information by pretending to be the user
OTA Software updates
GPS spoofing*
Radar spoofing
LIDAR spoofing
Smartphone Link malware
Camera spoofing
V2I hacking
V2V hack
ISO 21434 Road Vehicles –Cybersecurity Engineering
New mandatory standardfor Cyber Security expected
to be effective starting2020
17January 2019Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019
Ricardo Nederland
Tom Jansen
Global Domain Leader Connected & Automated Vehicles
[email protected]+316 5584 5445
“Nothing needs more guidance than a self steering vehicle”
18Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R08mg0XmbS0 (EcoTwin truck platooning explained)
• https://youtu.be/VG68SKoG7vE?t=16 (Tesla camera and recognition demo)
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MK0SrxBC1xs (Succesful cyber attack on JEEP)
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sW7XUs_0yU8 (Rivium ParkShuttle, since 1997)
• “Towards the legal admission of connected/automated vehicles”, Gerben Feddes, RDW
Standards and guidelines• ISO26262: Road vehicles – Functional safety
• EN5012x:– EN50126: Railway applications - The specification and demonstration of Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety (RAMS)– EN50128: Railway applications - Communication, signalling and processing systems - Software for railway control and protection systems– EN50129: Railway applications - Communication, signalling and processing systems - Safety related electronic systems for signaling
• SAE J3061: Cybersecurity Guidebook for Cyber-Physical Vehicle Systems
• ISO 21434 Road Vehicles – Cybersecurity Engineering
• TR68 - Technical Reference, Autonomous Vehicles (Singapore)
References and interesting links