Ouweneel & Bijleveld 1989 - HAHR - The Economic Cycle in Bourbon Central Mexico

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The Economic Cycle in Bourbon Central Mexico: A Critique of the Recaudacion del diezmo liquidoen pesos Author(s): Arij Ouweneel and Catrien C. J. H. Bijleveld Source: The Hispanic American Historical Review, Vol. 69, No. 3 (Aug., 1989), pp. 479-530Published by: Duke University PressStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2516303Accessed: 13-05-2015 14:09 UTC

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Hispanic American Historical Review 69:3 Copyright ? 1989 by Duke University Press ccc ooi8-2s68/89/$1. 50

The Economic Cycle in Bourbon Central Mexico: A Critique of the Recaudacion del diezmo liquido en pesos

ARIJ OUWENEEL AND CATRIEN C. J. H. BIJLEVELD*

T HIS article questions the usefulness of the tithe data of colonial Mexican bishoprics as an index of agrarian production in New Spain. It will present evidence of the

close relationship that exists between the Mexican tithe data and those of Mexican silver production and Royal Treasury income, a relationship that might indicate inflation. In doing so, the main objective is to highlight the background of the inflationary development. For this purpose, quantitative material on Bourbon Mexico, which has appeared over the past few years, is brought together and investigated exploratively using modern methods of statistical analysis. Investigating the validity of the data, some of which have been controversial, it will be shown that several series are indeed masked by what we have named a bureaucratic component. This essay thus joins a current and central debate in Mexican historiography regarding the assessment of economic performance in the late colonial period.

Since the publication of the initial volume of the Mexican colonial treasury data by John TePaske and Jose Hernandez Palomo (and the subsequent publication of Andean and additional Mexican treasury data), there has been a lively debate on their relevance. Several authors rely on these data for generalizations about the economic development of colonial Mexico. Some stress the strong evidence of growth and increased wealth in the colony in the second half of the eighteenth century; others speculate

*The authors wish to thank Pitou van Dijck, Chad Gundy, Robert Johnson, Paul Klein, Jan de Leeuw, and Frank Schenk for their comments on the manuscript. We are also in- debted to Ursula Ewald and her colleagues of the University of Heidelberg, Germany, for sending us their map of colonial New Spain. Part of the research was carried out with fund- ing from the Netherlands Foundation for the Advancement of Tropical Research (WOTRO) and from the Institute for Road Safety Research (SWOV).



48 0 H HAHR I AUGUST I OUWENEEL AND BIJLEVELD

on a late colonial mining industry in deep trouble.' Currently, the tithe series of Mexican bishoprics are being drawn into this debate. Because colonial Mexico was an agrarian society-according to the argument- the tithe receipts could be introduced as indicators of economic development, complementing the treasury data. Morin, for instance, discusses the receipts of the bishopric of Michoacan as part of an overview of its economic development; Medina Rubio published a series of the receipts of the bishopric of Puebla with the same intention; and Garavaglia and Grosso interpreted the series as an index of economic development in their review of the eighteenth-century agrarian situation in colonial Mexico. A group of researchers under the leadership of Rodolfo Pastor published the tithe series of the bishopric of Oaxaca with some sagacious comments, but nevertheless presented them as a reflection of agrarian development.

Hector Lindo Fuentes, discussing the findings of Pastor et al., refers to one of their conclusions: "De acuerdo con ellos la forma de la curva del volumen de plata acufiada en la Nueva Espafia durante el siglo XVIII es similar a la de la curva de los diezmos, y esto indica que hubo una relacion simbiotica entre la production agricola y la mineria." But he adds, "Cuando una cantidad mayor de dinero compra el mismo nu'mero de pro- ductos, los precios tienen que subir. Al comparar los datos de acufiacion con la serie de diezmos a precios corrientes lo que los autores ven, al menos en parte, es la relacion entre el crecimiento de la masa monetaria y la inflacion."2 Lindo Fuentes correctly discovers the weak point of the

1. John J. TePaske et al., La Real Hacienda de Nueva Espaia. La Real Caja de Mexico (1576-1816) (Mexico City, 1976); TePaske and Herbert S. Klein, Royal Treasuries of the Spanish Empire in America, 3 vols. (Durham, 1982) and Ingresos y egresos de la Real Hacienda en Meico, 3 vols., forthcoming. Other works include TePaske, "General Ten- dencies and Secular Trends in the Economies of Mexico and Peru, 1750-1810: The View from the Cajas of Mexico and Lima," in The Economies of Mexico and Peru During the Late Colonial Period, 1760-1810, Nils Jacobsen and Hans-Juirgen Puhle, eds. (Berlin, 1986), 316-339; David A. Brading, "Facts and Figments in Bourbon Mexico," Bulletin of Latin American Research (hereafter BLAR), 4: 1 (1985), 61-64; Richard Garner, "Silver Production and Entrepreneurial Structure in Eighteenth-Century Mexico," Jahrbuch fur Geschichte von Staat, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft Lateinarnerikas (hereafterJbLA), 17 (1980), 157-186, "Exportaciones de circulate en el siglo XVIII (1750-1810)," Historia Mexicana (hereafter HMex), 31: 124 (1982), 544-598, "Further Consideration of 'Facts and Figments in Bourbon Mexico'," BLAR, 6:1 (1987), 55-63; John Coatsworth, "The Limits of Colonial Absolutism: The State in Eighteenth-Century Mexico," in Essays in the Political, Economic and Social History of Colonial Latin America, Karen Spalding, ed. (Newark, 1982), 25-51 and "The Mexican Mining Industry in the Eighteenth Century," Economies of Mexico and Peru, 26- 45; Klein, "La economia de la Nueva Espafia, 1680-1809: Un andlisis a partir de las Cajas Reales," HMex, 34: 136 (1985), 561-609; B. H. Slicher van Bath, Real Hacienda y economia en Hispanoam-6rica, 1541-1820 (Amsterdam, 1989).

2. H6ctor Lindo Fuentes, "La utilidad de los diezmos como fuente para la historia econ6mica," HMex, 30 (1980/118), 273-289 (quoted passage pp. 287-288). See also Claude Morin, Michoacan en la Nueva Espaha del siglo XVIII: Crecimfiento y desigualdad en una



ECONOMIC CYCLE IN BOURBON CENTRAL MEXICO 481

tithe data, for in all cases what is used is the tithe receipts of the bishoprics in cash la recaudacion del diezmo liquido en pesos-rather than in kind.

As stated above, our first aim is to demonstrate the limits of this source as a "luminous" index of agrarian, and indeed economic, development.3 We agree with Lindo Fuentes that the tithe in cash reflected above all the monetary situation of the economy of New Spain: the late eighteenth-century boom in tithe receipts was caused by an explicit price- inflationary pressure. This was a consequence of growing money output, decreasing value of silver coins, and growing demand in combination with lagging output in agrarian and commodity production. Two further aims are to explore the possibilities of shedding additional light on this inflationary pressure by analyzing different series of data and to reveal the bureaucratic component that distorts the data, especially those concerning the Royal Treasury. For these efforts-critique and exploration-we will use correlation coefficients, canonical correlation analysis, and the technique of linear dynamic systems analysis (the latter by means of the program DYNAMALS) in order to examine the relations among the tithe receipts and economic indicators classified as inflationary, bureaucratic, and purchasing-power variables.

Scope and Context

The reliance on tithe receipts in cash by historians working on Latin America is curious in the light of European agrarian history. From the first application by French historians, the tithe receipts have been severely criticized as an index of agrarian and economic development.4 It has been recognized that the tithe in cash primarily reflected church income, and

econornia colonial (Mexico City, 1979); Aristides Medina Rubio, La iglesia y la producci6n agricola en Puebla, 1540-1795 (Mexico City, 1983); Juan Carlos Garavaglia and Juan Carlos Grosso, "La region de Puebla-Tlaxcala y la economia novohispana (1670-1821)," HMex, 35:140 (1986), 549-600, "De Veracruz a Durango: Un analisis regional de la Nueva Espafia borb6nica," Siglo XIX, 2:4 (1987), 9-52, and "Estado borb6nico y presion fiscal en la Nueva Espaiia, 1750-1821," in America Latina dallo stato coloniale allo stato nazione, Antonio Annino et al., eds. (Milan, 1987), 78-97; Rodolfo Pastor et al., Fluctuaciones econ6micas en Oaxaca durante el siglo XVIII (Mexico City, 1979); Cecilia Rabell Romero, Los diezmnos de San Luis de la Paz: Econoinia de una region del Bajio en el siglo XVIII (Mexico City, 1986); Alexander Von Humboldt, Ensayo politico sobre el reino de la Nueva Espana (Mexico City, 1822; reprin-ted 1978), 316-317.

3. Emmanuel LeRoy Ladurie, The Peasants of Lan guedoc (Urbana, 1974), passim. 4. This section follows Joseph Goy's excellent introduction, "Methodology," LeRoy

Ladurie and Goy, Tithe and Agrarian History fromt the Fourteenth to the Nineteenth Cen- turies. An Essay in Comparative History (Cambridge, 1982), 3-70, based on the articles in Prestations paysannes, dtimes, rente fonciere et nouwveinent de la production agricole a lpoque preindustrielle, 2 vols., LeRoy Ladurie and Coy, eds. (Paris, 1982).



482 | HAHR I AUGUST I OUWENEEL AND BIJLEVELD

therefore church politics to increase its revenues. The tithe as a biblical institution dates back over two thousand years. It became a traditional means by which the church could collect each year a percentage of the "fruits of the earth," e.g., crops and livestock, but there were impressive local and regional variations in the level of the tithe in Europe, depending on the power of the church to effect its policies. The rate at which it was collected hovered around lo percent, but it could be as high as 14 or as low as 2 percent. There were five ways of collecting:

in kind: -collecting directly by the clergy; -farming out for a single harvest; -farming out for several harvests;

in money: -farming out for a single harvest; -farming out for several harvests.5

It proved most secure (and most profitable) to farm the tithes out (i.e., lease them) for several harvests in money. Farming out to one or more per- sons, the tithe farmers, was also a practice in the bishoprics of the Spanish colonial empire. The tithe farmer was responsible for collecting the tithes and for handing over to the lessor the sum agreed in the tithe contract. Under normal circumstances, he further had to make profit, which was his remuneration. Usually, the lease covered a longer period than one particular harvest and included all the crops and newborn animals within a certain tithe jurisdiction. But the tithes paid in money give an indication of the tithe income in the currency of the period. They can only begin to yield interesting data, according to the French historian Joseph Goy, if one takes the trouble to compare them with price curves.

Here complications arise, for such a comparison really amounts to "deflating" the cash tithe by expressing it in terms of its equivalent. Deflation can be achieved by dividing the money tithe series by a price index. For a tithe series based on a combination of products, this means using a composite index derived from the prices of the main products of each tithe jurisdiction, according to the proportions of each of these products. In New Spain these would include, among others, maize, wheat, bar- ley, beans, sheep, and cattle. Coy, in general, is pessimistic about this method, which he labels an impossible undertaking. As he points out,

it presupposes a knowledge of crop proportions of a given tithe, whereas in fact the documents-which refer to a tithe 'translated' into cash-do not tell us so much. We must therefore give up the attempt to work out a deflating index of this kind-it is an attractive idea but simply not practicable.6

5. Coy, "Methodology," 15. 6. Ibid., 44.




In the Mexican case, there are other points which make such an undertaking impractical. In the bishopric of Puebla, for instance, the main sources of church income shifted during the eighteenth century from wheat-producing areas in the center of the bishopric to the cotton- and tobacco-producing areas in the eastern provinces of Cordoba, Orizaba, and Jalapa. Furthermore, in the bishopric of Michoacan the economy revolved around silver production rather than agriculture, and, for this reason alone, could not constitute an adequate indication for estimating agricultural trends. Seemingly most important of all, the small peasants in the villages, being exempted by law as "Indians," did not pay any tithe at all. Nevertheless, Garner-referring to the work of Morin-sees no major difficulties: "Tithes provide a rough measure of the colony's agricultural output. Landowners paid the tithes in kind, on the basis of as- sessments against their operations, to special collectors who sold the produce for cash.... Although many technical problems are associated with the preparation of tithe series, they can often be minimized or solved."7 Garner and others have further pointed out the synchronic trend of the Poblano and Michoacan tithe curves (see Figure i); the correlation between both series is indeed reasonably large: R = .89.

All of the known tithe series of Mexican bishoprics show a trend of increased church income, especially during the late eighteenth century.

7. See Garner, "Price Trends in Eighteenth-Century Mexico," HAHR, 65:2 (May 1985), 279-325 (quoted passage p. 319); Morin, Michoacan, 102-121, esp. 116; and Medina Rubio, Iglesia, passim. Although Morin does acknowledge that an increase in the tithe receipts in cash resulted from more rigorous collection in combination with demographic and economic growth, it may not account for the major part of the increase. In his view, later backed by Garner, economic, agricultural, and population growth in the bishopric helped to generate the major part of the revenue increase. Garner, on his part, expressed some doubts on the growth rates. Comparing the Michoacdn tithe figures with Bajio maize prices (also Michoa- can) in the eighteenth century, he found a similar rhythm of growth of both series until the 1780s but noticed a strange price development afterward (without establishing a clear trend), while the tithe series continued to grow. It is our view that the tithe series and the price series are strongly influenced by the same factor: inflation. This questions not the data for the late colonial development, but the similar rhythm until the 1780s and therefore the tithe data themselves. The diezrno files in the Archivo General de Indias (hereafter AGI) show how difficult it is to transform these tithe data into workable agrarian data (see AGI, M6xico, leg. 2576, bishopric of Puebla). The accounts are impressively heterogeneous. Some of the lessors send their receipts of different contracts all at once to Mexico City or Puebla; others promised to pay but died before they could do so, leaving their family in debt to the church. There were different contracts for wheat, seeds, chiles from Tepeaca, chiles and menudencias from Cholula and Texmelucan (two different tithe jurisdictions!), etc. Cholula paid tithes on the income from its propios. Some of the great hacendados agreed to pay a fixed amount only por convenio antiguo. The Indians contributed mainly with money. At the same time, there were lessors and government agents collecting the tithes; the latter had special barns at their disposal to store the products (e.g., Texmelucan and Huamantla). The collector of Texmelucan visited the haciendas in his jurisdiction personally but irregularly, while the one in Huamantla mainly collected the tithes of the former Jesuit haciendas in the provinces of San Juan de los Llanos, Tepeaca, and Tlaxcala.




600000

500000

400000 - Michoacan tithe

300000 -

Puebla tithe

200000 -

100000

1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820

FIGURE 1: Tithe Receipts of the Bishoprics of Michoacdn and Puebla and the Revenues of the Novenos Reales between 1710 and 1809 Source: Appendix.

Florescano published a series of tithe data of five main bishoprics in New Spain for the period 1771-89, precisely the period of rapid acceleration (see Table Ia) 8; and, in general, the correlations between series are high (see Table Ib). There is, though, one intriguing exception: the Poblano series of Florescano is basically different from one published by Medina Rubio. The correlation between both Poblano series is .53; the squared correlation R2 (o. 29) amounts to 29 percent of common variation in the two series. At the same time, a correlation coefficient of R = .54 is obtained between Florescano's Poblano and Michoacan series. The discrepancy between the data of Florescano and Medina Rubio might be clarified by a detailed examination of the original sources, but that task is beyond the scope of our study. We have chosen, in any case, to use the figures of Medina Rubio, not only because they cover almost the entire eighteenth century but because they were collected on the basis of meticulous research.

Florescano's data could bring us to support Garner's conclusion: this synchronous development of church income seems to be the result of the existence of a colonywide market for foodstuffs like maize, beans, wheat, sheep, and cattle.9 It seems to be confirmed by the data of the novenos

8. Enrique Florescano, Origen y desarrollo de los problemas agrarios de Mexico, 1500- 1821 (Mexico City, 1976), 69.

9. Lindo Fuentes, "Utilidad," 276-277.




TABLE la: Value of the Tithe Receipts in Five Mexican Bishoprics (Indices; Base: Mean of 1771-89 = 100)

M6xico Puebla Michoacdn Oaxaca Guadalajara 1771 54.7 87.1 101.1 82.6 73.5 1772 56.5 90.1 94.9 82.6 78.6 1773 61.7 86.2 98.8 85.1 85.8 1774 56.3 89.8 99.3 87.0 86.0 1775 67.6 88.6 89.3 89.0 87.3 1776 79.5 87.6 94.4 114.5 50.1 1777 84.6 97.5 94.8 95.0 82.1 1778 85.4 96.8 104.0 73.3 103.6 1779 91.3 98.2 101.1 108.8 100.3 1780 110.8 100.6 109.8 94.3 98.4 1781 113.4 114.5 104.6 111.8 103.5 1782 124.7 105.7 107.0 113.4 94.6 1783 118.5 106.0 115.8 119.5 130.1 1784 117.3 114.0 110.1 110.5 137.0 1785 129.4 120.5 81.1 101.6 136.5 1786 142.0 105.7 117.9 97.1 129.7 1787 152.4 109.9 128.3 96.8 85.5 1788 124.8 96.7 122.3 116.0 95.6 1789 131.1 105.2 124.6 123.9 141.6

Source: E. Florescano, Origen y desarrollo de los problems agrarios de Mexico, 1500- 1821 (Mexico City, 1975), 69.

TABLE Ib: Correlations Between the Tithe Receipts of Five Mexican Bishoprics (According to the Data of Table la)

Puebla Michoacdn Oaxaca Guadalajara M6xico .88 .83 .83 .78 Puebla .54 .76 .83

Michoacdn .75 .65 Oaxaca .88

reales, the state tax on the tithes, that boomed during the 178os (see Figure i). But, as has been stated, the development of the tithe series of the different bishoprics was also similar to that of the silver production in the viceroyalty, a phenomenon that can be explained by the process of inflation. Therefore, our main hypothesis concerns the inflationary bias of Bourbon Mexican economic development. We will try to show that New Spain suffered from a price inflation during the late eighteenth century that distorted the series of tithe receipts as well as other series-includ-




ing most of the treasury data-based on the trade in basic commodity products.

The assumption of the existence of a colonywide maize market rests on a presupposed correlation of tithe series and maize prices in several bishoprics of New Spain. It led some authors to work with a computed colonywide maize price. This assumption is, however, yet to be verified.'0 In the case of Central Mexico, the correlation was caused by the effects of its generally severe climate: harvest failures." But that is not the only point. One of the main characteristics of an integrated market is an intensive basic commodity exchange between different regions, leveling off price differences. Such a market existed in early modern Europe: wheat shortages in Barcelona, Valencia, or the Languedoc could easily be offset by wheat imports from Sicily, northern France, Sweden, Prussia, or even Russia. This exchange generally passed through Amsterdam, and correlations between the price movements of wheat in Europe are high because of the influence of Amsterdam as a central emporium. Such an integrated market could exist because of Europe's relatively well-developed infra- structure and its favorable geographic conditions: fast and cheap water transport on rivers, canals, and by sea and good cart, car, or coach transport on well-paved, mostly level roads. The provisioning of regions in years of shortages proved to be extremely difficult only in mountainous areas like southern Germany, Switzerland, or Spain.'2

All evidence shows that such a system for fast and relatively inexpen- sive exchange of basic commodity products did not exist in New Spain. Morin, for example, notes a wide variety of price movements inside the bishopric of Michoacan during the eighteenth century; there were numerous local markets in which prices were anarchic. Lindo Fuentes observes

lo. Eric Van Young, "The Rich Get Richer and the Poor Get Skewed: Real Wages and Popular Living Standards in Late Colonial Mexico," paper given at the meeting of the All- UC Group in Economic History, Los Angeles, 1987, p. 51, n. 30. See also the works of Garner and Coatsworth, n. 1 above.

11. On the climate of Central Mexico, see Florescano, Precios del maiz y crisis agricolas en Mexico (1708-1810) (Mexico City, 1969); John M. Tutino, "Creole Mexico: Spanish Elites, Haciendas and Indian Towns, 1750-1810" (Ph. D. diss., University of Texas, Austin, 1976) and From Insurrection to Revolution in Mexico: Social Bases of Agrarian Violence, 1750- 1940 (Princeton, 1986); and Arij Ouweneel, Onderbroken groei in Anahuac: De ecologische achtergrond van ontwikkeling en armoede op het platteland van Centraal-Mexico, 1730- 1810 (Amsterdam, 1989), 47-69.

12. Slicher van Bath, De agrarische geschiedenis van West-Europa, 500-1850 (Utrecht, 1960; reprinted 1977); Jan de Vries, The Economy of Europe in an Age of Crisis, 1600- 1750 (Cambridge, 1976); Pierre Vilar, La Catalogne dans l'Espagne moderne (Paris, 1962); David R. Ringrose, "Transportation and Economic Stagnation in Eighteenth-Century Cas- tile," Journal of Economic History (hereafter JEH), 28 (1968), 51-79, and "Madrid and the Castilian Economy," Journal of European Economic History (hereafter JEEH), 10 (1981), 481-490; David E. Vassberg, Land and Society in Golden Age Castile (Cambridge, 1984).




that "las diferencias ecologicas y los costos de transported hacen que haya fuertes divergencies entre las diferentes regiones." Van Young's work on the Guadalajara region indicates a relatively late market development, which was almost totally intraregional in scope. There was virtually no introduction of basic foodstuffs from outside, even in times of severe crisis. The same was true for all highland regions in the colony, as evidenced in the published documents of the agrarian crises of 1785-86 and 1809- 1o: almost every cathedral chapter or main city government in highland Mexico had problems with the transport of maize from the tierra caliente. Numerous mule loads were lost in crossing the mountainous landscape. In general, even maize transport between Mexico City and the nearby Bajio was so irregular that correlations between Mexico City prices and those in the Bajio town of Silao are not higher than .50 (R2 =O.25). The severe climate, the difficult topography, the poorly paved roads, and the lack of good waterways between the population centers impeded the formation of an integrated market system. Only through a system of forced and illegal trade at fixed prices-the repartiriento de efectos-was there a profitable interregional exchange of luxury products. The transport costs were too high for an integrated market system of commodity products to develop.13

These regional differences were mapped by Van Oss and Slicher van Bath. Although they used different criteria-from monument building

13. Lindo Fuentes, "Utilidad," 276. Brading, Haciendas and Ranchos in the Mexican Bajio: Le6n 1700-186o (Cambridge, 1978); Van Young, "Urban Market and Hinterland: Guadalajara and Its Region in the Eighteenth Century," HAHR, 59:4 (Nov. 1979), 593-635; Fuentes para la historia de la crisis agricola de 1785-1786, 2 vols., Florescano and Pastor, eds. (Mexico City, 1981); Morin, Michoacdn, 195-200; Fuentes para la historia de la crisis agricola (1809-1811), Florescano and Victoria San Vicente, eds. (Mexico City, 1985). On the repartimiento de efectos in New Spain, see Ouweneel, Onderbroken groei, 122-149; Brian Hainnett, Politics and Trade in Southerni Mexico, 1750-1821 (Cambridge, 1971) and Roots of Insurgency: Mexican Regions, 1750-1824 (Cambridge, 1986), 26, 78, 149, 152, 170; Horst Pietschmann, "Der Repartimiento-Handel der Distriktsbeamten im Raum Puebla irn 18. Jahrhundert," JbLA, 10 (1973), 236-250 and "Agricultura e industria rural indigena en el M6xico de la segunda mitad del siglo XVIII," in Empresarios, indios y estado: Perfil de la economia mexicana (siglo XVIII), Ouweneel and Maria Cristina Torales Pacheco, eds. (Amsterdam, 1988), 72-87; Daniele Dehouve, "El pueblo de indios y el mercado: Tlapa en el siglo XVIII," Empresarios, indios y estado, 88-104; Thomas Gerst, Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung Mexikos und das Problem der Proto-Industrialisierung am Ausgang der Kolonialzeit (Munich, 1988), 39-54; Torales Pacheco et al., La compaitia de comercio de Francisco Ignacio de Yraeta (1767-1797): Cinco ensayos, 2 vols. (Mexico City, 1985). For an argument similar to that expressed here, see Richard J. Salvucci and Linda K. Salvucci, "Crecimiento econ6mico y cambio de la productividad en M6xico, 1750-1895," HISLA Re- vista Latinoanericana de Historia Econ6mica y Social, lo (1987), 67-89; and the concluding essay by Van Young, "A modo de conclusion: El siglo parad6jico," Empresarios, indios y estado, 206-231, which might be considered an elaboration of his "The Age of Paradox: Mexican Agriculture at the End of the Colonial Period, 1750-1810," Economies of Mexico and Peru, 64-go.




to economic diversification-they were able to distinguish four regional economies of New Spain, called complexes by Slicher:

Central Mexico, the hinterland of the cities of Mexico, Puebla, Toluca, Cholula, Tepeaca, Cuernavaca, and Tlaxcala on the central altiplano; Michoacan, the mining region of New Spain including the cities of Valladolid, Guanajuato, San Miguel el Grande, San Luis Potosi, Acaimbaro, and Queretaro; Oaxaca, including the Mixteca highlands; Guadalajara and its hinterland, including the northern mining enclaves of Parral and Zacatecas.'4

Every regional economy (or region) was characterized by concentric circles, in which the inner circles were marked by high levels of population concentration, intensive agriculture, intensive religious and architectural activity, and the like. If one moved out toward the periphery, population levels and economic activities declined. These four regional economic entities thus had variegated internal economies, and were separated by a dry and mountainous landscape that was difficult to traverse. Again, lux-

14. These concentric circles resembled a pattern of contour lines, broken and distorted at points by the road system. Each of the four regions had its own road network; the most elaborate systems were in the most extensive and differentiated regions. Within these regional entities, the road systems were densest in the central parts, but thinned out toward the peripheral landscape separating the regions from each other. Between the four regions were few overland communication routes, usually only one or two. See A. C. van Oss and Slicher van Bath, "An Experiment in the History of Economy and Culture," JEEH 7 (1978), 407-427 and Geschiedenis van naatschappy en cultuur (Baarn, 1978); van Oss, "Architectural Activity, Demography and Economic Diversification: Regional Economies of Colonial Mexico," JbLA, 16 (1979), 97-145; Slicher van Bath, Spaans Anterika omstreeks i6oo (Utrecht, 1979), "Economic Diversification in Spanish America Around 1600: Centres, Intermediate Zones and Peripheries," JbLA, 16 (1979), 53-95, Bevolking en econonmie in Nieuw Spanje (ca. 1570-1800) (Amsterdam, 1981), "Dos modelos referidos a la relaci6n entre poblaci6n y economia en Nueva Espafia y Per6 durante la 6poca colonial," Empresarios, indios y estado, 15-44. These four regions are also discussed in Ouweneel, Onderbrokert groei, 23-30. On transport and the road system, see Ross Hassig, Trade, Tribute, and Trans- portation. The Sixteenth-Century Political Economy of the Valley of Mexico (Norman, 1985); Wolfgang Trautmann, Las transformaciones en el paisaje cultural de Tlaxcala durante la 6poca colonial (Wiesbaden, 1981), 199-233. According to the concepts developed by loca- tion theorists and applied to colonial Mexico by Van Young in a recently published article, these regional economies should be seen as solar regions and not as dendritic regions; Van Young, "Haciendo historia regional: Consideraciones metodol6gicas y te6ricas," Anuario del IEHS (Tandil), 2 (1987) and "A modo de conclusion," 214-221. A solar region had a Von Thiinen-like structure, with its economic center within it, and it consumed more of its products than it exported. It was characterized further by a complex internal economic structure and social stratification. On the contrary, the dendritic region was dependent on outside economic centers. This holds true for export-oriented regions such as northern Yucatdin in the late nineteenth century, but not for the four regional economies of New Spain, although some subregions like sugar-exporting Cuernavaca-Cuautla did have dendritic characteristics within the solar system.




ury products and high-valued goods could be transported and sold colony wide, but foodstuffs could not because of the high transport costs involved. A true mercado novohispano could not develop.

Any detailed, in-depth study of the economic cycle of colonial Mexico must limit itself to one of these four economic regions. The evidence now published confirms the impressive differences between the four in time, scope, and character. Central Mexico and Oaxaca were ancient indigena regions, with many small villages and intensive local market systems. These villages were geographically and economically complemented by relatively small haciendas that produced-with the use of intensive methods-basic nutriments and industrial raw materials (wood, tallow, fat, wool) for the cities. Central Mexico was the most populated region and contained a high number of non-Indians as well. Michoacain and Guada- lajara were generally much more Hispanicized and did not truly develop until the mideighteenth century. In both regions, there were few pueblos de indios, but many rancheros. The haciendas were generally larger and produced cattle, food, and industrial raw materials for the cities as well as for the nearby mining enclaves. The only integrating element of the economy of New Spain, cutting across all four major regions, was the long-distance trade of silver, sheep, cattle, and repartimiento products (basically textiles like cotton cloth, jicaras, cochineal, and cattle and mules for the Indians). This trade system involved finished manufactured goods but not luxury articles imported from Europe. As described by several visitors and state officials of New Spain in the late colonial period,'5 it resembled more the trans-Saharan caravan system than the European basic commodity trade.

15. Diario del viaje que hizo a la Amrnica en el siglo XVIII el P. Fray Francisco de Ajo- frin, 1763-1766, 2 vols. (Mexico City, 1964); G. F. Gemelli Careri, Viaje a la Nueva Espaia, Francisca Perujo, ed. (Mexico City, 1976); William Bullock, Seis mneses de residencia y viajes en Mexico (Mexico City, 1983; orig. pub. in English, London, 1825); Mark Beaufoy, Mexican Illustrations, Founded Upon Facts (London, 1828; reprinted Washington, 1987); Von Hum- boldt, Ensayo politico, passing. See also William B. Taylor, Landlord and Peasant in Colonial Oaxaca (Stanford, 1972) and "Town and Country in the Valley of Oaxaca, 1750-1812," in Provinces of Early Mexico. Variants of Spanish American Regional Evolution, Ida Altman and James Lockhart, eds. (Los Angeles, 1976), 63-96; Van Young, Hacienda and Market in Eighteenth-Century Mexico: The Rural Economy of the Guadalajara Region, 1675-1820 (Berkeley, 1981); Rabell Romero, "San Luis de la Paz: Estudio de economia y dernografia hist6rica (1645-1810)" (Tesis de doctorado, Universidad Nacional Aut6noma de M6xico, 1983); Catalina Rodriguez, Comrunidades, haciendas y mtano de obra en Tialmanalco (siglo XVIII) (Mexico City, 1982); F. Hurtado, "Dolores Hidalgo en el siglo XVIII: Una aproxi- maci6n cuantitativa," HMex, 27:4 (1978), 507-540; Charles Gibson, The Aztecs under Span- ish Rule: A History of the Indians of the Valley of Mexico, 1519-1810 (Stanford, 1964); Stephanie G. Wood, "Corporate Adjustments in Colonial Mexican Indian Towns: Toluca Region, 1550-1810" (Ph.D. diss., University of California, Los Angeles, 1984); Cheryl E. Martin, Rural Society in Colonial Morelos (Albuquerque, 1985); Morin, Michoacal, passion; Hassig, Trade, passim; Brading, Haciendas and Ranchos, passing.



0~~~~~~~~

0 C) a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Q)G (1) 75 5~~~~~~




For the discussion that follows, we limit our scope to Central Mexico, a complex of 51 provinces (see Map i), which had the highest population density, the largest cities, and a lively internal basic commodity trade. We will give a detailed discussion of the available quantitative variables concerning the cyclical movements of the late colonial economy of this region. Because the silver was minted in the colony's capital and caused a growth of coinage, the silver production data (of the main industry of the region of Michoacan) will be included in the analysis. In the last sections of this article, we will discuss the statistical methods used in analyzing the relationships between the variables and interpret the results.

The Time Series: A Hypothetical Discussion of Trends and Cycles

Gathering quantitative material on eighteenth-century Central Mexico is not an easy task; it is especially difficult to obtain data from different and independent sources. The general problem is that much of the empirical data is considerably less elaborated than for European economic history, and some important data are missing altogether. However, the variables of our analysis consist of 17 time series:'

i6. The sources: i) Medina Rubio, Iglesia, passim; 2) Morin, Michoacan, passim; 3) AGI, Audiencia Mexico, legs. 798 and 2106; Mexico, Archivo General de la Naci6n (hereafter AGN), Ramo de Tributos, vol. 2, exps. i and 2, and vol. 36, exp. 17; Peter Gerhard, A Guide to the Historical Geography of New Spain (Cambridge, 1972); 4) Von Humboldt, Ensayo politico, 386-387; 5) Mexico, Archivo Hist6rico de Hacienda (hereafter AHH), leg. 26-2; 6), 8), 9), and io) TePaske, Real Hacienda de Nueva Espaiia, passim; 7) Hermiindez Palomo, La renta del pulque en Nueva Espaia, 1663-1810 (Seville, 1979); ii) Florescano, Precios del naiz, app. IV; 12) and 13) Clara Elena Sudrez Argiiello, La politica cerealera en la economia novo-hispana: El caso del trigo (Mexico City, 1985); Virginia Garcia Acosta, "Manufactura y colonia: Las panaderias de la ciudad de Mexico en el siglo XVIII" (Tesis de mnaestria, Universidad Iberoamericana, 1985); 14) Fuentes para la historia de la tenencia de la tierra en el estado de Hidalgo, J. M. Menes Llaguno, ed. (Pachuca, 1976); Indice de documentos relatives a los pueblos del estado de Mexico, Mario Colin, ed. (Mexico City, 1966); Indice del raino de tierras del estado de Puebla, E. Mendez Martinez, ed. (Mexico City, 1979); 15) Taylor, Drinking, passim; i6) various sources; 17) van Oss, Inventory of 86i Monuments of Mexican Colonial Architecture (Amsterdam, 1978). Not all variables were complete. The missing values of the incomplete variables had to be replaced by estimated values in order to run the analyses. Missing values were estimated: for each incomplete series, estimates of the missing points were obtained using the coefficient of multiple regression of all complete variables on the nonmissing parts. Secondly, not all variables were comparable: most of them had been measured on a yearly basis, some variables had been measured every five years only. Others had been measured on an irregular basis; for instance, taxes were sometimes collected once in three years, giving a high score in the year of collection, but very low scores in both other years; double counting has the same effect. In order to be able to relate such variables and to level off unreal fluctuations, all variables were replaced by their five-year moving averages. All collected series ran from 1710 to 1809 (n = 100; see Appendix I). Because we assumed, on a rather ad hoc basis, that the tributaries variable would be slower than the other variables to have an impact on the Central Mexican economy (approximately two years), we used the scores of the tributario variable from 1710 to 1807 and the scores of all other variables from 1712 to 1809.




1. tithe receipts in cash of the bishopric of Puebla; 2. tithe receipts in cash of the bishopric of Michoacan; 3. number of tributaries (tribute payers) of the region of Central

Mexico; 4. silver production in marcos according to Von Humboldt; 5. minting of silver coins in Mexico City; 6. taxes on silver production; 7. receipts of the pulque taxes of the Caja de Mexico; 8. receipts of the alcabala of the Caja de Mexico; 9. receipts of the novenos reales of the Caja de Mexico; io. receipts of the tributes reales of the Caja de Mexico; ii. maize prices of the capital's municipal granary; 12. flour prices of the capital's bakeries; 13. quantity of flour shipments to these bakeries; 14. number of land disputes in the Central Mexican provinces; i5. number of registered revolts in the Central Mexican countryside; i6. years of crisis due to harvest failures or epidemics in the Central

Mexican provinces; 17. number of monuments under construction in the Central Mexican

provinces. In order to evaluate the results of our statistical analyses properly, these variables must be subjected to careful critical evaluation. However, as we rely mainly on published sources, our criticism will be general, and we cannot go into the details of the relevance of, for example, all of the data of the Caja de Mexico.

The first two variables have already been discussed in the previous section. The third variable, tributaries, is based on the government reg- isters of the inhabitants of the pueblos de indios. Each pueblo de indios had its own list of tributaries and was a juridical entity with special rights. Officially, the Indians were considered the descendants of the pre-Spanish peoples of Mexico, although (as is shown by Chance, Seed, McCaa, and others) in the eighteenth century the word Indian already had, above all, a socioeconomic connotation. Some 8o percent of the inhabitants of Central Mexico were registered as tributaries living in pueblos de indios. If these Indians left their own towns and moved into Hispanic towns or cities without being transferred from one tribute list to the other, they could easily be considered mestizos or mulattos.'7 Throughout the eighteenth century,

17. John K. Chance, Race and Class in Colonial Oaxaca (Stanford, 1978), "On the Mexican Mestizo," Latin A erican Research Review, 14:3 (1979), 153-168, "The Ecology of Race and Class in Late Colonial Oaxaca," in Studies in Spanish American Population History, David J. Robinson, ed. (Boulder, 1981), 93-117; Chance and Taylor, "Estate and Class in a Colonial City: Oaxaca in 1792," Comparative Studies in Society and History (hereafter




nwnbers

400000

350000

300000

tributaries

250000

200000

150000

100000 . , . 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820

FIGURE 2: Number of Tributarios in 51 Provinces of Central Mexico Between 1710 and 1809 Source: Appendix.

great numbers of rural residents indeed moved into the cities looking for jobs as artisans or wage workers. However, it is interesting to note that the number of tributaries in the 51 provinces of Central Mexico remained relatively stable between 1740 and about 1790 (see Figure 2), while in the same period the number of mestizos and other non-Indians recorded in the cities was rapidly growing.'8

The advent of rural stagnation had followed a century of immense population growth in the villages, which was brought to an end by the great mnatlazahuatl epidemic of 1736-39. After about 1770, emigration was slowly matched by a new population increase in the villages. Exactly

CSSH), 19 (1977), 454-487; Leon Yacher, Marriage Migration and Racial Mixing in Colonial Tlazazalca (Michoacdn), 1750-1800 (Syracuse, 1977); Robert McCaa and Michael M. Swann, "Social Theory and the Log-Linear Approach: The Question of Race and Class in Colonial Spanish America" (Dept. of Geography discussion paper 76, Syracuse University, 1982); Patricia Seed, "Social Dimensions of Race: Mexico City, 1753," HAHR, 62:4 (Nov. 1982), 569-606; and the debate between Seed and Philip F. Rust, on the one hand, and, on the other, McCaa, Stuart B. Schwartz, and Arturo Grubessich in CSSH, 25 (1983), 703-724. Most revealing is McCaa, "Calidad, Clase, and Marriage in Colonial Mexico: The Case of Parral, 1788-1790," HAHR, 64:3 (Aug. 1984), 477-501; Gibson, Aztecs, 136-150.

i8. Morin, Santa Inks Zacatelco (1646-1812). Contribuci6n a la demografta hist6rica del Mexico Central (Mexico City, 1973); Thomas Calvo, Acatzingo: Demografta de una parroquia mexicana (Mexico City, 1973); Wayne Osborn, "A Community Study of Metz- titlan, New Spain, 1520-1810" (Ph.D. diss., University of Iowa, 1970); Martin, Rural Soci- ety, passim; Ouweneel, Onderbroken groei, 77-97.




how much growth occurred is still not known. Like all series, population figures for colonial Central Mexico suffer from imperfections; the tribute counts were not always made with the utmost care. By 1770, the procedure was improved, however, and it probably caused some increase in the registered number of tributaries. At the same time, a new set of regulations had included more children, aged people, and mulattos in the registered number of tribute payers than before. It is clear, even so, that especially during the last decades of the colonial period the population of Central Mexico was growing impressively, especially in villages of the Valleys of Mexico and Toluca and in mining areas like Zimapain, Temascal- tepec, and Taxco. This trend is illustrated by our tributaries graph. If we combine trends, we must conclude that the increase in the number of tributarios in the countryside and the increase in the number of non-Indians in the urban world must have led to a substantial increase in demand for food, housing, and work. Around i8oo, population growth was the major force behind agricultural and other economic change.'9

At the same time, demographic expansion might be viewed as one of the causes of the inflationary bias of late colonial Central Mexico. In Europe, periods of population growth have been periods of rising agricultural prices. The long-term trend in cereal prices in Europe is known: upward in the thirteenth century, slowly downward in the later fourteenth century, rising remarkably in the sixteenth, but from the midseventeenth century to the mideighteenth again falling or stagnant. Prices again rose from the later eighteenth century until the midnineteenth century. These major phases have been related to periods of expanding population, in which demand outran supply.20 Unfortunately, there are no such long- term data on cereal prices in the Spanish empire in America. For Central Mexico, in fact, we could only use the maize prices of the capital's granary, published by Florescano, and the flour prices of the capital's bakeries, published by Suarez Argiiello and Garcia Acosta. Both series are difficult to interpret. Florescano's series presents yearly averages, but, as he him- self pointed out, only about 27 percent of these averages are based on data for all 12 months, and about 40 percent are too incomplete to be really trustworthy (since they cover less than 6 months). A closer look at the series reveals that the incomplete years give measurements mainly for preharvest months, thereby stressing the highest seasonal prices. Another

19. See the excellent introduction of the topic by David Grigg, Population Growth and Agrarian Change: An Historical Perspective (Cambridge, 1980) and, by the same author, The Dynamics of Agricultural Change. The Historical Experience (London, 1982), 37-43.

20. Wilhelm Abel, Agricultural Fluctuations in Europe. From the Thirteenth to the Twentieth Centuries (London, 1980), 2; Slicher van Bath, Agrarische geschiedenis, passim; Grigg, Dynamics, 54-56.




problem is the free selling of maize in the capital's street markets and shops. The general public only appealed en masse to the granary in years of harvest failures-which occurred frequently after about 1770, and not only caused boom selling but drove up prices enormously. The data thus show exaggerated fluctuations. Nevertheless, we could agree with Flores- cano that the series broadly reflects the consumer price of Mexico City, because many shopkeepers bought their stock in the granary. The influence of the granary's prices outside the city remains obscure and no doubt must have been limited because of severe transport problems.

Our series of Mexico City's flour prices is deduced from the figures of Suarez Argiiello and Garcia Acosta, whose research made clear that these were "producer prices." The flour market in Mexico City was a monopoly of about 14 wheat mills around the city, which in turn were dominated by 1 or 2 great mills. According to Artis Espriu, the Molinos Santa Monica and Rio Hondo controlled about half of the amount of flour shipped to the city's bakeries.2' Both mills were owned by elite families who also controlled the majority of the bakeries. One of the discoveries of the "wheat project" of Suarez Argilello, Artis Espriu, and Garcia Acosta is the overproduction of wheat by the haciendas of the Central Mexican altiplano, a finding that is confirmed by numerous hacienda sources. Since wheat was the main product of a large number of these altiplano haciendas, prices had to be kept high, which was only possible by storing the harvested wheat and by speculation with wheat stocks.22 Artis Espriu shows that in 1807, according to her a typical year, the Molino de Santa Monica sold only 15 to 20 percent out of stock. The smallest mills, which had to sell more, nevertheless sold only about 35 to 45 percent out of stock. Wheat production was not a sound investment for the Central Mexican hacendados if they could not effectively control the wheat market. And there were few who could.

Wheat flour and bread were in general three to four times as expen- sive as maize. Moreover, as is shown in Figure 3, flour prices fluctuated much more than maize prices during the eighteenth century. According

21. Gloria Artis Espriu, "Economia administrada y estrategias de regatones y maqui- leros: El mercado de trigo en la ciudad de M6xico (siglo XVIII)" (Tesis de lie., Universidad Iberoamericana, 1984).

22. The findings of Sudrez Argiiello and Garcia Acosta are confirmed by data from hacienda bookkeeping; see Ouweneel, Onderbroken groei, 208-262. On hacienda agriculture, see Ouweneel, "Eighteenth-Century Tlaxcalan Agriculture: Diary 9 of the Hacienda San Antonio Palula, 1765-1766," in Haciendas in Central-Mexico from Late Colonial Times to the Revolution, R. Th. J. Buve, ed. (Amsterdam, 1984), 21-83, "Schedules in Hacienda Agricul- ture: The Case of Santa Ana Arag6n (1765-1768) and San Nicolis de los Pilares (I793-'795), Valley of Mexico," Boletin de Estudios Latinoamericanos y del Caribe, 40 (1986), 63-97, and "Don Claudio Pesero y la administration de la hacienda de Xaltipdn (Tlaxcala, 1734-1737)," Empresarios, indios y estado, i68-i88; Trautmann, Transformaciones, 121-198.




140

120 - flour shipments

1 00

80

60 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~flour prices in reales

40 maize prices

in reales A

20-

0 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820

FIGURE 3: Maize Prices, Flour Prices, and Flour Shipments in Mexico City Between 1710 and 1809 Source: Appendix.

to Suarez Argfiello and Garcia Acosta, flour prices declined enormously in the late 1750s because of overproduction and decreasing export markets (Cuba was lost to sellers from Louisiana). However, by reducing the flour shipments between about 1740 and 1790, the millers were able to profit from the population increase and, for the most part, to maintain high prices. After about 1790, the population increase in Mexico City was so impressive that more flour could be shipped to the city's bakeries. The maize prices show a much more stable curve, broken only by sharp in- creases in periods of crisis (the late 1740s, the late 1750s, and especially the 178os, 1790s, and after i8oo). The trend was slowly moving upward after the 1770s, and increasingly so around i8oo as a consequence of several harvest failures. The molinero monopoly meant an almost total control on the flour trade; there was no substantial correlation between prices and supply of flour as might be expected on a free market (flour shipments correlate R = .36 with flour prices).

In general, if excessive demand because of population growth is not matched by expanding production, it raises the price level. For this reason, demographic expansion in Central Mexico could have been at the roots of an inflationary development. It is perhaps worth noting, too, that according to recent research this trend occurred in a period of nascent industrial activity: textiles in Puebla, Mexico City, and Queretaro; tobacco in New Spain's major cities; and a rise of other industry supplying the




repartimiento de efectos. How important the repartimiento was in the last decades of the eighteenth century is shown by Horst Pietschmann for the Valley of Puebla. He concludes that to "indios y dema's clases inferiores se les repartian bienes por valor de al menos 250,000 pesos anuales y se les compraba al menos por 65 a 70,000 pesos, lo que hace un monto total de capital circulante de unos 320,000 pesos. . .23 Other research has suggested a similar amount of capital circulating within the Valleys of Mexico and Toluca. This was a period of what we would like to call emerg- ing protoindustrialization, in a way comparable to that studied in David Levine's monograph on eighteenth-century England, Slicher's study of the Dutch province of Overijssel, or Fischer's overview of early modern rural Germany. These and other studies show how expansion of the labor market by domestic industries broke down the traditional social control that had maintained a demographic equilibrium, in which population size was more or less kept in line with resources. They suggest that employment created population growth because of earlier marriages. It seems reasonable to assume that the population pattern in Central Mexico was likewise partly created by the growth of domestic industry.24

23. Pietschmann, "Agricultura," 79. 24. Guy Thomson, "The Cotton Textile Industry in Puebla during the Eighteenth and

Early Nineteenth Centuries," Economies of Mexico and Peru, 169-239; Manuel Mifjo Gri- jalva, "Espacio econ6mico e industria textil: Los trabajadores de Nueva Espafia; 1780-1810," HMex, 32:4 (1983), 524-553 and "El carnino hacia la fdbrica en Nueva Espafia: El caso de la 'FTbrica de Indianillas' de Francisco de Iglesias, i8oi-i8io," HMex, 34:1 (1984), 135-148. A considerable body of literature now exists on what scholars mean by the term "protoindustrial." Usually, it signifies home or small workshop-based manufacture of goods for a nonlocal market, on the basis of credit by merchants; the "putting out system," see F. F. Mendels, "Proto-Industrialization: The First Phase of the Industrialization Process,"JEH, 32 (1972), 241-261; Wolfram Fischer, "Rural Industrialization and Population Change, " CSSH, 15 (1973), 158-170, esp. 161; Hans Medick, "The Proto-Industrial Family Economy: The Structural Function of Household and Family During the Transition from Peasant Society to Industrial Capitalism," Social History, 3 (1976), 291-315; David Levine, Family Formation in an Age of Nascent Capitalism (New York, 1977); Industrialization before Industrializa- tion: Rural Industry in the Genesis of Capitalism, Peter Kriedte, Hans Medick, and Jiirgen Schlumbohm, eds. (Cambridge, 1981); Kriedte, Peasants, Landlords and Merchant Capi- talists: Europe and the World Economy, 1500-1800 (Cambridge, 1983), 70-91, 115-145; Richard Wall, "Leaving Home and the Process of Household Formation in Preindustrial En- gland, " Continuity and Change, 2 (1987), 77-101, esp. 82-go, and 99, n. i6. Interesting as well is Slicher van Bath, Een samenleving onder spanning: Geschiedenis van het platteland van Overijssel (Assen, 1957; reprinted Arnhem, 1977). Mendels defines protoindustrialization as a distinct stage in European economic development in which large-scale cottage industry was typical. Merchants put work out into the countryside and collected it to be sold in distant markets, thus not locally. His model suggests that protoindustries were com- monly found in areas of subsistence farming with large populations accessible to urban cloth merchants. The consequences most often were demographic: whole families were drawn into protoindustrial work; more children were born to couples, meaning rapid population growth; and regional crises occurred when the industry contracted. Kriedte called protoindustrialization "one of the most important engines of population growth" (see his Peasants,



498 HAHR AUGUST OUWENEEL AND BIJLEVELD

Protoindustrialization must have led to an increase in employment for the poor, and certainly also to an increase in the turnover of money. If it went hand in hand with a rise in the stock of money which it did: MV increased, the amount spent on output according to the classical version of Irving Fisher's equation of exchange and if commodity trade (T, according to Fisher's equation) was in the hands of relatively few people- as was also the case we have another reason for inflationary bias. Even though it is a truism, and a simple one, the equation of exchange could be a useful approach in this respect to guide our inquiry,25 because in Mexican historiography inflation was traditionally seen as a consequence of silver production only (M up = P up). This purely monetary point of view is understandable in light of the unprecedented growth of mining production in the eighteenth century, but it does not necessarily give a full explanation for what happened.26

Little research has been done on the character and development of commodity trade and (proto)industrial output in colonial Central Mexico, and neither has the exact relationship between rural industrialization and population changes been established by research, even though we know that there is an interrelation between the two. It is of interest to note further that the mining boom accompanied population growth in the beginning of the century, and later again in the 1770S and 178os. As has been stated by Jacobsen and Puhle, this expansion was unthinkable without demographic growth: either the necessary labor for new mining operations would not have been available or high wage levels would have made many enterprises unprofitable. The industry was in trouble in the last decades of the century because of declining exports during the Napoleonic Wars

103). Although most authors would agree, a different view is expressed by Gay L. Gullick- son, Spinners and Weavers of Auffay: Rural Industry and the Sexual Division of Labor in a French Village, 1750-1850 (New York, 1986). She found typical protoindustrial production in the Pays de Caux of Normandy, but without the occurrence of rapid population growth. On protoindustry in New Spain, see Ouweneel, Onderbroken groei, 123-131; Pietschmann, "Agricultura"; Dehouve, "Pueblo de indios"; and Gerst, Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung Mexi- kos, 39-79. Even credit was given to the peasants in the villages by merchants, as part of the repartimniento de efectos. Richard Salvucci recently published a study on the obrajes in Mexican history, in fact showing that the obraje was not a protoindustrial industry, according to the definition introduced by Mendels and Medick, and refined by authors like Kriedte, Fischer, and Wall; see his Textiles and Capitalism in Mexico: An Economic History of the Obrajes, 1539-1840 (Princeton, 1987).

25. On this point, see Ronald A. Wykstra, Introductory Economics (New York, 1971), 249-255 and Slicher van Bath, Agrarische geschiedenis, 217.

26. On the unprecedented mining boom, see the literature on silver production mentioned in n. 1 above. On commodity trade in the hands of few people, see Amartya Sen, Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation (Oxford, 1982) and Slicher van Bath, Agrarische geschiedenis, 217.




Pesos 5000000-

4000000-

3000000 - minting /5.5 tV

2000000< 2000000 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~silver

1000000s

mining taxes

0- I l l 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820

FIGURE 4: Silver Production, Taxes on Silver Production, and Minting of Silver Coins Between 1710 and 18o9 Source: Appendix.

in Europe,27 yet it formed part of a pattern of economic development in much of the colony that started in the early eighteenth century and led to an inflationary bias by the end of the century. Since silver production was a powerful economic force, it must naturally be included in our analysis. As indicated above, the impressive growth of Mexican silver production (see Figure 4) is broadly discussed elsewhere and needs no further explanation here. There is, however, some disagreement on the output of this industry in the second half of the eighteenth century. We relied on Von Humboldt's data in marcos, the real physical output brought to the minting houses in Mexico City. Apart from this we also used archival data on the mintage of coins in Mexico City. These data refer to physical production: a certain quantity of silver marcos was received by the minting houses, recorded in their files, and later minted at about 65 to 70 reales to the marco. By royal decree alone, the value of money in Mexico declined in the eighteenth century some 4 percent. In the beginning of the century, the alloy of one silver marco was about ii dineros and 4 granos, or 930.551 milesimos. The devaluation of 1728 reduced the value somewhat

27. Jacobsen and Puhle, "Introduction," Economies of Mexico and Pertu, 1-25, esp. 10; Garner, "Silver Production," passim; Javier Cuenca Esteban, "Statistics of Spain's Colonial Trade, 1792-1820: Consular Duties, Cargo Inventories, and Balances of Trade," HAHR, 61:3 (Aug. 1981), 381-428; Coatsworth, "Limits of Colonial Absolutism," passim and "Mexican Mining Industry," passim.




to iL dineros or 916.666 mil'simos. There was a secret devaluation in 1772 (discovered shortly thereafter) to ilo dineros and 20 granos, or 902.782 milesimos. Finally, in 1786, the value of the marco was devaluated to lo dineros and i8 granos, or 895.837 milesimos. These devaluations must have contributed to the inflationary bias of the economy.28

If our hypothesis about inflation (prices) as a consequence of population growth (demand), expanding silver production (stock of money), and nascent protoindustrialization (industrial activity and turnover of money) is correct, other data measuring sales of commodity products must follow trends identical to those of the tithes discussed in the preceding section. The main problem for the contemporary historian is that such data do not exist. We may be brief on the relevance of the revenues of Mexico's Real Caja, which are supposed to reflect taxation of trade and production. Using these data is hazardous, for the returns are in no sense a record of overall revenue, not even of Central Mexican revenue, but of receipts entering the treasury in Mexico City. Three main studies of the Real Caja data point to the difficulties of relying on them uncritically. In several articles, TePaske asserts that this expansion in treasury income occurring during the eighteenth century (see, for instance, Figures 5 and ilo) was distorted by the imposition of forced loans on various ramos of the treasury, by the imposition of new taxes and higher tax levies, and by intensified

28. Florescano, Precios, 77-81. Curiously, however, a simple calculation of the ratio of the number of coins minted to the number of marcos brought into the mint results in a value of about eleven to twelve pesos. There occurs a deviation in this ratio after 18oo which might have been due to irregular administration of the growing stock in Mexico City, caused by increased transportation to the colony's capital and stagnating exports to Europe. The mean of these post-i8oo values, however, is again a little over eleven pesos per marco. This points to the irregular peak of the production figures for the 1790s and their subsequent decline. Because we are dealing with the shipments of silver to Mexico City, both the decline of the 1780s and the peak of the 1790s can be explained by the scarcity of mules during the 1780s. Serrera Contreras shows that the droughts of the 1780s caused the death of large numbers of mules. Also, transporters were reluctant to send their mules on the way in that period. This impeded silver transport but not silver production, and when the interregional trade revived after the droughts were over and the lost mules could be replaced, the production of the 1780s was brought into the capital. Future research must reveal in what way production figures must be corrected for transport difficulties. After all, what is important to the silver debate is how much was actually produced; how much was shipped to Mexico City is less important. Perhaps there was no real decline in silver production until the next period of droughts and the subsequent peasant revolts after 18o8; see Ram6n Serrera Contreras, Guadalajara ganadera: Estudio regional novohispano, 1760-1805 (Seville, 1977). Quite revealing are the reports of the intendants on this problem in 1786 and 1787, see AGI, M6xico, leg. 1675. On the connection between bullion and the economy, see M. Morineau, Incroyables gazettes et fabuleux mntaux: Les retours des tresors arnricains d'apres les gazettes hollandaises (XVI e-XVIIIe siecles) (New York and Paris, 1985) and Slicher van Bath's essay "Het silver en goud: produktie en spreiding," in his Indianen en Spanjaarden: Een ontmoeting tussen twee werelden. Latins Ainerika 1500-1800 (Amsterdam, 1989), 139-174.




collection methods.29 The practice of borrowing from its own ramos especially distorts the Real Caja data; by the end of the eighteenth century, the royal treasury in effect owed millions of pesos to itself TePaske's cau- tion is supported by David Brading, who points to the fact that we still do not have any clear idea of which taxes, and in what amounts or for what reasons, were paid into the central treasury.30 He also warns against the danger of double counting of revenue and of confusing capital debt with annual income. It would seem, then, that the central treasury acted as both a regional receipt house and a colonywide final deposit. It could be that not all taxes found their way into its coffers, and, indeed, the establishment of provincial treasuries at Puebla, Valladolid, and Oaxaca must have influenced the receipts of the Caja Matriz after the 178os. This blur- ring of the real trade and production figures is what we propose to call the bureaucratic component of the data. It renders the treasury data almost useless for short-run analysis of economic development, unless it can be "unmasked."

An excellent critical work was written by the Spanish historian Her- nandez Palomo, concentrating on the pulque revenues in Central Mexico and Oaxaca. His study stresses both the bureaucratic component of the data and their usefulness as an indicator of real growth in physical transport of tuns of pulque to the urban markets.31 He provides case evidence of the almost single-minded interest of the Bourbon government in taxes as a source of state revenue and of bureaucratic maneuvering to increase them. Next to mining, pulque taxes (at their peak in the 1770s) stood with the alcabala as the most important of these tax revenues. The dramatic growth in revenues from pulque began in the 176os with the change from the asiento system (a kind of farming out) to collection by royal officials, in combination with advances of the levies (see Figure 5). At the same time, real pulque output increased following new demands of the growing urban population. The decline of pulque revenue after the mid-L78os is explained as the result of the agrarian crises in the 178os, 1790s, and i8oos, as well as of progressively higher taxes on pulque, which made its consumption less attractive. Of equal importance, however, was the decline in purchasing power of the urban poor after the 1770s, a consequence of the steadily rising prices.

Can this conclusion be extended to a discussion of the alcabala figures? As can be seen in Figure 5, the alcabala curve is not much different from the pulque curve; the alcabala revenues have R = .874 with those

29. TePaske, "General Tendencies," 322-325. 30. Brading, "Facts and Figments" and personal communication. 31. Herndndez Palomo, Renta del pulque, passim; Michael C. Scardaville, "Alcohol

Abuse and Tavern Reform in Late Colonial Mexico City," HAHR, 60:4 (Nov. 1980), 643-671.




pesos

2500000

2000000

alcabala

1500000 -

1000000-

500000 - t ,ae

0 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820

FIGURE 5: Revenues of Alcabala, Tributos Reales, and Pulque Between 1710 and 1809 Source: Appendix.

from pulque. They correlate moderately with other ramos: R = .68i with novenos reales (the government taxes on the tithes) and R = .66o with the tributes reales (the revenues of the royal tribute paid by the inhabitants of the pueblos de indios). Hernandez Palomo's findings suggest, on the one hand, that the common element in these correlation coefficients is the bureaucratic component, but at the same time that some growth of production must also be taken into account.

Just what was taxed de facto by the alcabala is not entirely clear. The alcabala was a sales tax, collected by the aduana on the roads and in the cities, and the variety of products subject to it was too large for its yield to be of much use in detailed short-run economic analysis. These products included wheat, beans, chiles, maize, and cattle produced by haciendas or village communities and sold in towns or cities, but also retail commodities (artesania) and industrial products like textiles. Later on, a large proportion of receipts could have been derived from excise duties on European goods as well. However, a series of documents from around 1787 indicates that the alcabala may have taxed mainly the illegal repartimiento de efectos. In practice, the rule that only "Spanish" trade was to be taxed was widely broken. In the province of Chalco, even the Indian sellers on the Friday tianguiz were being taxed. (The revenues of the tianguiz stallage provided approximately 30 percent of the income from the alcabala in Chalco in the 176os!) Besides this, there was no consistency in levies; regional variations compete with differences over




time. The Mexican historian Bahena Perez discovered that most alcabala posts were charging the 6 percent levy as late as 1791, while in years of war the levy was formally raised to 8 percent.32

According to Hernandez Palomo's experience with the pulque data, the alcabala data must contain trade information and reflect real trade development in some way. For that reason it is noteworthy to observe a decrease in the curve of the alcabala after about 1780, while the expansion of silver production was quite explosive in the same period. If we may believe Von Humboldt, the alcabala revenues would have risen, not declined, until they reached 3.2 million pesos in 1803. But, as expressed before, there are other problems. Indeed, the downturn after the 1780s peak could have resulted from the establishment of the new provincial treasuries, into which money once destined for the Caja Matriz was now paid directly. Of course, some of the funds went eventually to Mexico City, but it is not clear under what heading. The message in any case is clear: until we know more about the criteria, rules, or procedures by which this kind of revenue was deposited in the capital, it is best to be careful in interpreting its figures. We chose to use the data published by TePaske and Hernandez Palomo mainly for two reasons: they are complete series covering the entire century, and we lack data of the provincial treasury of Puebla.

The growth pattern of the alcabala, tributes reales, and pulque revenues administrated by the Caja Matriz manifested itself during the 1740S and 1750S (see Figure 5). A decline began during the 1760s, but a rock bottom was not reached: a new increase began in the same decade. Although this revival is influenced strongly by the bureaucratic component, the development mirrors the growth of population. The 1740s, 1750s, and 176os must be considered a time of prosperity and economic expansion. We notice rising alcabala revenues, rising tributes reales revenues, and a rapid growth of silver production, accompanied by low maize prices and low flour prices. But during the 1780s, the situation must have changed impressively. Prices rose again, and government revenues like the pulque tax and tributes reales seem to have been in decline. (The lower tributary revenue, "evidence" of a massive shortfall, could also be explained as a result of the establishment of provincial treasuries. In that case we could look at Von Humboldt's data which show a relative decline.) These were the taxes paid by the urban and rural poor. Agrarian crises due to overpopulation, epidemics, deviant weather conditions, and harvest failures

32. AGI, M6xico, legs. 1675 and 2096; M. Bahena P6rez, "La transportation de carga en el comercio de la Nueva Espafia: La arrieria (1789-1810)" (Tesis de mnaestria, Universi- dad Iberoamericana, 1985); Miquel Izard, "Metropolitanos, criollos y reformistas: La Nueva Espafia de Revillagigedo (1789-1794)," Boletin Americanista, 22:30 (1980), 181-222.




100

80 land disputes

60

40-

peasants revolts 20 - i numbers z 10

20

1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820

FIGURE 6: Number of Peasant Revolts and Number of Land Disputes in Central Mexico Between 1710 and 18o9 Source: Appendix.

limited the potential of the poor to pay tribute to the crown, or to con- sume much pulque. This occurred in years of expanding silver production and war.33

There is now growing support for the conclusion that the late eighteenth century was a period of "agrarian compression" (Tutino), causing "dearth and dislocation" (Hamnett), in which "the rich got richer and the poor got skewed" (Van Young). The decreasing purchasing power of the poor after the 1770s-8os is confirmed by the other variables of our analysis. These also reveal a period of crises in the first decades of the eighteenth century, culminating in the great epidemic of 1736-39. At first sight, two variables stand out: the number of peasant revolts and the number of land disputes (see Figure 6). The number of peasant revolts in Cen- tral Mexico was low in the middle of the century, but it increased rapidly during the 178os. Taylor stresses the economic and political causes of these revolts: they followed a period of subsistence crises, as well as changes in

33. Susan Linda Swan, "Climate, Crops and Livestock: Some Aspects of Colonial Mexi- can Agriculture" (Ph.D. diss., Washington State University, 1977); Gibson, Aztecs, passim; Tutino, "Creole Mexico," passim; Ouweneel, Onderbroken groei, passim; Brading, "Facts and Figments"; and Garner, "Further Consideration." On pauperization, see Van Young, "A modo de conclusion" and "Rich Get Richer" and Von Humboldt, Ensayo politico, 541-544.




the socioeconomic and political organization of the countryside, whereby the relationship between the rulers and the ruled had been changed. This is a topic for separate research and must be left aside here, but all research on the moral economy of the poor shows a similar combination of declining living standards and cultural and political change leading to popular protest.34 The number of revolts thus indicates, indirectly, changes in the economic cycle.

In an area like Central Mexico, the scarcity of suitable land for cultivation was an important aspect of agriculture. Tutino had the brilliant idea of using modern archival catalogues to make an index of agrarian tensions by counting the number of land-related disputes originating in the Valley of Mexico and Toluca brought before the Audiencia in Mexico City.35 We copied the method, but added the disputes in the provinces now belonging to the states of Puebla and Hidalgo. These disputes almost without exception involved pueblos de indios: suits between estates and villages and between villages and villages. The suits between residents of single villages were left out of our analysis, because they involved mainly local power politics (these suits usually included caciques).36 Our series gives an indication of the increasing scarcity of cultivated lands in the pueblos de indios relative to their growing populations. As Figure 6 illustrates, the frequency of land-related suits was high during the 1710S (a period of intensive composiciones de tierras, or legalizations of land titles by hacendados and villagers alike), low in the "prosperous" midcentury decades, and high again from the 1760s onward. Figure 7 also shows that the late eighteenth-century increase ran parallel to population growth, whereas the number of land disputes was low in the midcentury period of stagnating tributario numbers. After the epidemics of 1736-39 there was apparently no shortage of land in the pueblos de indios until the 1760s.

34. Tutino, From Insurrection to Revolution, 41-182; Hamnett, Roots of Insurgency, 102-124; Van Young, "Rich Get Richer"; Jacobsen and Puhle, "Introduction." On the moral economy, see Taylor, Drinking, 113-151; David W. Sabean, Power in the Blood: Popular Culture and Village Discourse in Early Modern Germany (New York, 1984); George Rud6, The Crowd in History (New York, 1964) and Ideology and Popular Protest (New York, 1980); E. P. Thompson, "The Moral Economy of the English Crowd in the Eighteenth Century," Past and Present, 50 (1971), 76-136; James Scott, The Moral Economy of the Peasant: Rebellion and Subsistence in South East Asia (New Haven, 1976); Jos6 Miguel Palop, Hambre y lucha antifeudal: Las crisis de subsistencias en Valencia (siglo XVIII) (Madrid, 1977); Anthony McFarlane, "Civil Disorders and Popular Protest in Late Colonial New Granada," HAHR, 64:1 (Feb. 1984), 17-54; Erick D. Langer, "Labor Strikes and Reciprocity on Chuquisaca Haciendas," HAHR, 65:2 (May 1985), 255-277.

35. Tutino, "Creole Mexico," 242-246. 36. The situation in the villages in the eighteenth century must have resembled that

during the revolution. Compare Tutino, "Provincial Spaniards, Indian Towns and Haciendas: Interrelated Sectors of Agrarian Society in the Valleys of Mexico and Toluca, 1750-1810," Provinces of Early Mexico, 182-187, with Frans J. Schryer, "A Ranchero Elite in the Region of Huejutla. The Career of General Juvencio Nochebuena of Atlapexco," paper given at the CEDLA workshop, Amsterdam, 1987.



506 I HAHR I AUGUST I OUWENEEL AND BIJLEVELD

number

100

land disputes

80

60

40

in numbers / 5000

20 . | , 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820

FIGURE 7: Number of Land Disputes and Number of Tributarios in Central Mexico Be- tween 171o and 18o9 Source: Appendix.

Apart from the tributes reales, the number of rural revolts, and the land disputes (we shall call these variables "agrarian"), a fourth indicator of the purchasing power of the poor may be introduced: the number of monuments under construction in Central Mexico. As has been shown by van Oss and Slicher van Bath, this variable can be a powerful indicator of economic development.37 The variable contains a selection of collected data on the chronology and distribution of architectural activity compiled by van Oss.38 The construction of monuments like chapels, churches, and monasteries can tell the economic historian much about economic cycles of the period in which their construction began, for many of them represent huge material investments, and they therefore reflect the economic climate of the time. The great majority of van Oss's data was located in our Central Mexican region of 51 provinces (see the differences between the number of monuments of van Oss's inventory in the entire colony of New Spain and those in our region of Central Mexico in Figure 8). Until the 1770s, monument building followed the pattern of population growth, disrupted by a slight decrease only during the matlazahuatl epidemic.

37. Van Oss and Slicher van Bath, "Experiment," passim; Slicher van Bath, Real Haci- enda.

38. Van Oss, Inventory of 86i Monuments, passim.




number

50-

40 - monuments

_ / \_/_@_sq < ~~~~New Spain

30-

20-

m onu ments Central M exico <

10-

0 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820

FIGURE 8: Number of Monuments under Construction in Central Mexico and in New Spain Between 1710 and 1809 Source: Appendix.

The level of monument-building activity fell steeply during the 1770S, and it hit bottom around 18oo. This coincides remarkably with the "agrarian" variables mentioned above, suggesting that monument building may have been financed by the generosity of the majority of the population, including the poor.

The conclusion just put forward can be illustrated by comparing the curves of monument-building activity and land disputes (see Figure 9), as well as the curves of pulque revenues and tributes reales (see Figure lo). The number of land disputes has a moderate negative correlation with the number of monuments under construction: increased monument-building activity coincided with a decreased number of land disputes. Interesting is the high building activity in the 1750S following the epidemics. The number of land disputes fell after the peak of the early l8oos, when the villagers could simply no longer afford to press them. Indeed, the period of greatest crisis must have been around 18oo, although the turning point in purchasing power of the masses probably came in the early 178os. The year 1786 was the one and only year of starvation in the eighteenth century. However, there were about 15 maize harvest failures between 1770 and 18oo because of droughts and night frosts, underscoring the climatic




100

80

60 land disputes

40-

20-

monumentss

0 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820

FIGURE 9: Number of Land Disputes and Number of Monuments under Construction in Central Mexico Between 1710 and 18o9 Source: Appendix.

component of our series.39 A process of pauperization during the 1790I

and i8oos is expressed, then, by the variables tributos reales, monument building in Central Mexico, and partly by pulque revenues.

To summarize this section, there are five provisional conclusions: 1. population growth can be identified by combining increased mesti-

zaje (growing number of non-Indians) and a growing number of tributaries in the second half of the eighteenth century, following a setback during the great epidemics of 1736-39;

2. this expansion caused growing demand for foodstuffs and retail commodities, thereby stimulating agriculture, protoindustrial activity, and silver production;

3. price movements were stable until the 1780s namely during the advent of protoindustrialization;

4. continuing population growth and expanding silver production in combination with harvest failures, agrarian crises, and subsequent demand outgrowing supply brought an end to the midcentury prosperity;

5. a process of pauperization finally set in during the 1790s.

39. Ouweneel, Onderbroken groei, 48-65; Swan, "Climate," passim; Tutino, "Creole Mexico," passim; Florescano, Precios, passim.




100

80 - tributes reales in pesosI 10,000 \ w r Z1 puque

in pesos /10,000

60

40

20

in nwnbers

0 II

1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820

FIGURE 10: Three Purchasing-Power Variables Source: Appendix.

None of the 17 variables by itself clearly illustrates this sequence of developments. We need other methods to unmask the bureaucratic component and to prove the inflationary bias of the late colonial economy. This brings us back to the tithe data and to our hypothesis that these do not reflect agrarian production but inflation.

We have classified the variables themselves into: a) inflationary variables tributariess, silver production in marcos ac-

cording to Von Humboldt, the occurrence of crisis years due to harvest failures or epidemics, and in a way also the tithe receipts of the bishoprics of Michoacan and Puebla, although we prefer to keep the tithe data apart as a separate group of variables; variables 1, 2, 3, 4, and 16),

b) bureaucratic variables (the Real Caja data; variables 7, 8, 9, and lo), and

c) purchasing-power variables (maize prices, flour prices, number of land disputes, number of registered revolts, and number of monuments under construction in the Central Mexican provinces; variables 11, 12, 14,

15, 17). Variables 5 and 6 (minting of silver coins and taxes on silver production) are exchangeable with variable 4 (silver production in marcos); variable 13 (flour shipments to Mexico City) can, as indicated before, be related to variable 12 (flour prices). So far, however, our reasoning has been specu- lative, and as a next step it must be checked by the use of appropriate statistical analyses. The following section will describe how two of these




techniques canonical correlation analysis and linear dynamic systems analysis can be applied to squeeze the evidence we are looking for from the variables at our disposal.

Statistical Analysis of the Data

In the foregoing discussion we contested the common interpretation and use of the tithe receipts as an indicator of economic development in agrarian colonial Mexico. We suggested that the tithe receipts reflected on the contrary inflationary and bureaucratic developments. It is remarkable that amid all the elaborate theoretical reasoning that has been applied in favor of the first assumption no effort at empirical verification or falsification has been made as yet. We have therefore examined the relationship between the tithe variables and inflationary, bureaucratic, and purchasing- power variables using canonical correlation analysis as well as one- and two-dimensional linear dynamic systems analyses. The interpretation of the latter will be done using a graphic representation.

First, we shall discuss the results from the canonical correlation analysis.40 Canonical correlation analysis is a linear multivariate analysis technique that computes the strength and nature of the relationship between two sets of variables. In these so-called first and second sets, the respective variables are by weighted addition combined into one new, "communal" variable, the so-called canonical variable. The correlation coefficient between the canonical variables of both sets is computed just as if they were ordinary variables; this coefficient is called the canonical correlation, indicating the strength of the relationship between the two sets. The weighted addition of the respective variables into canonical variables is done in such a way that the canonical correlation between the two sets is maximized. The contribution of the respective variables in relating the two sets is reflected in the correlations that the variables have with the canonical variable of their set. These latter correlations give the nature of the relationship between the two sets.

40. More technical explanation and discussion of our statistical techniques appear in Appendix II. For a brief and illustrative description of canonical correlation analysis, see M. G. Kendall, A Course in Multivariate Analysis (London, 1972). A more mathematical description is in J. P. van der Geer, Introduction to Linear Multivariate Data Analysis, 2 vols. (Leiden, 1986). Canonical correlation analysis is widely used in many fields of social and other scientific research as a powerful tool for exploratory multivariate analysis. Applications can be found in psychology, sociology, anthropology, econometrics, biology, etc. To men- tion a few: C. C. J. H. Bijleveld, "The Effect of Education on Sudanese Women's Attitudes Towards Female Circumcision" (Leiden, 1986); P. M. Bentler and G. J. Huba, "Symmet- ric and Asymmetric Rotation in Canonical Correlation Analysis: New Methods with Drug Variable Examples," in Multivariate Applications in the Social Sciences, N. Hirschberg and L. G. Humphreys, eds. (Hillsdale, NJ, 1982); H. Hoteling, "Relations Between Two Sets of Variates," Biornetrika, 28 ( 1936), 321-377.




1710 1711 1809

ureaucratic inflationary bureaucratic inflationary bureaucratic inflationary variables variables variables variables variables variables

purchasing- purchasing- purchasing- power power power

variables variables variables

V2 C2V C2V

tithes tithe tithes

FIGURE 1 1: Geometric Representation of the Model of Canonical Correlation Analysis

A setup to test for the relation of the tithe variables with the "bureaucratic," "inflationary," and "agrarian" variables is presented in Figure 11. If it were the case that the tithe receipts in cash did reflect agrarian development, we would find high correlations of "agrarian" variables such as the maize or flour prices, the number of land disputes, and the number of revolts in the Central Mexican countryside with the canonical variable of their set. If it were the case, however, that the tithe receipts did not reflect agrarian but rather inflationary and bureaucratic development, we would find high correlations of the inflationary and bureaucratic variables and low correlations of the "agrarian" variables with the canonical variable. These solutions are the hypothetical extremes.

Table II shows the results of this analysis. The canonical correlation between the two sets is quite high: .98. Both tithe series correlate strongly with the canonical variable, as do the variables tributaries, pulque revenues, silver production, and two of the bureaucratic variables, alcabala and novenos reales. Tributos reales and years of crisis perform in an un- expectedly meager way, but as far as the tributes are concerned this is in line with their divergent course observed earlier in Figure 5: tributes reales decreased after 1770, while other bureaucratic variables increased sharply. The purchasing-power variables all have correlations around .5, which are markedly lower. This supports our postulation about the relationship between the tithe data in cash and the inflationary and bureaucratic variables of our data. It brings us to the first conclusion: the tithe series appear to be indicators of inflationary and bureaucratic rather than of agrarian development.




TABLE II: Results from Canonical Correlation Analysis: Correlations of the Tithe Variables Versus the Inflationary, Bureaucratic, and Purchasing-Power Variables with the Canonical Variable of their Set

First Set Second Set

Puebla tithe .999 inflationary tributaries .882 Michoacdn tithe .982 variables: years of crisis .394

silver production .934

bureaucratic tributes reales .062 variables: pulque .791

alcabala .691 novenos reales .691

purchasing- revolts .512 power land disputes .555 variables: maize prices .554

flour prices .520 monuments -.530

As we are dealing with time-series data, it makes sense to suppose that the variables years of crisis and tributes reales might perform better in an analysis in which time is modeled. For that purpose, we continue our examination of the relationships between the same groups of variables with linear dynamic systems analysis.4' Incorporation of the time dependency between measurements enables us to make inferences about the causal relationships with more confidence. Unlike canonical correlation analysis, where the two sets of variables are treated symmetrically, linear dynamic systems analysis distinguishes between exogenous and endogenous variables; in the linear dynamic model, the exogenous and endogenous variables are related through time. The variables and the relations between them constitute the linear dynamic system. The influence of past occurrences on future occurrences passes through what is best thought of as the "memory" of the system, often called the "state" of the system. Like canonical correlation analysis, linear dynamic systems analysis returns correlations of the respective variables with the memory or state of the system that indicate the nature of the relationship between the exogenous and endogenous variables. Also, a measure comparable to the

41. On state-space or linear dynamic systems analysis see Bijleveld, Exploratory Lin- ear Dynamic Systems Analysis (Leiden, forthcoming) and Bijleveld, DYNAMALS Progress Report (Leiden, 1987; Dept. of Data Theory, RR 87-16). On the relation between canonical correlation analysis and linear dynamic systems analysis, see J. de Leeuw and Bijleveld, Fit- ting Longitudinal Reduced Rank Regression Models by Alternating Least Squares (Leiden, 1988; Dept. of Data Theory, RR 88-03).




ureaucratic |inflationary bureaucratic inflationary bureaucratic inflationary variables variables variables ea variables variables

purchasing- purchaaing- purchasing- ppower power powe r

variables variables variables

satae in atae inatae in 1710 1 711 1809

tithea tithea ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~tithea

FIGURE 12: Geometric Representation of the Model of Linear Dynamic Systems Analysis of the Tithe Falsification

canonical correlation is presented-the fit-that reflects the strength of the relation between exogenous and endogenous variables.

In Figure 12 a schematic representation is given of linear dynamic systems analysis of the tithe, inflationary, bureaucratic, and purchasing- power variables. Table III gives the correlations of all variables with the state; the fit of the solution was .989. In comparison with the canonical correlation analysis solution, the correlations have not changed markedly. Thus, the correlations of the purchasing-power variables are still among the lowest, and also the performances of the tributes reales and years of crisis have hardly changed. The interpretation of the linear dynamic systems analysis solution is in fact identical to that of the canonical correlation analysis solution. Incorporation of the time dependency thus supports the conclusion made on the basis of the simple cross-sectional case.

In contrast to the other variables, the correlation of tributes reales is rather low. This suggests the desirability of a further step, based on the possibility of relating the exogenous and endogenous variables in more than one way. Variables can relate in several, distinctive manners; thus an explanation for the low correlation of the tributes reales might be that the other variables are related to one aspect of the tithe data, while the tributes reales are related to another aspect of these same tithe data. Such a differential relationship can be revealed by letting the state have more than one dimension; each dimension, independent of the former, brings out another qualitatively different relationship between the variables. By finding the common aspect of the variables that have high correlations with the respective dimensions of the state, these dimensions can be in-




TABLE III: Results from Linear Dynamic Systems Analysis: Correlations of the Tithe Variables Versus Inflationary, Bureaucratic, and Purchasing-Power Variables with the State of the System

Exogenous variables Endogenous variables

Inflationary tributaries .828 Puebla tithe .993 variables: years of crisis .475 Michoacdn tithe .993

silver production .926

Bureaucratic tributes reales .037 variables: pulque .772

alcabala .670 novenos reales .688

Purchasing- revolts .522 power land disputes .614 variables: maize prices .613

flour prices .555 monuments -.579

terpreted. We therefore ran linear dynamic systems analysis allowing for a second dimension of the state; the results of this analysis, which has a fit of .992, are given in Table IV. From the correlations we conclude that neither of the tithe variables has been related satisfactorily to the second dimension of the state.

The two-dimensional linear dynamic systems analysis solution is best explored using a graphic representation of the relationships between the variables, an image of the solution. The graphic representation is made by taking the first two dimensions of the state as the x-axis and y-axis, and the correlations of the variables with these dimensions of the state as scores on both axes. The variables are then represented as arrows or vectors in a two- dimensional space. The importance of a variable can be inferred from the length of its vector in the figure; the higher the correlations of a variable, the longer its vector. Because of our interest in their interrelatedness, we will focus on the relative positioning of the variables. In case the vectors of two variables point in opposite directions, a high score on one variable implies a low score on the other. If they stand at right angles, the variables are thought to be independent of each other: in the latter case, there is no connection between the scores on one variable and the scores on another. The clustering of vectors in approximately the same spot indicates that they measure the same phenomenon, but variables whose vectors point in the opposite direction are said to measure the opposite.

As expected, in Figure 13 the tithe vectors are almost covering each




TABLE IV: Results from Two-Dimensional Linear Dynamic Systems Analysis: Correlations of the Tithe Variables Versus Inflationary, Bureaucratic, and Purchasing-Power Variables with the Two Dimensions of the State

Exogenous Endogenous variables variables

dimension dimension I II I II

Inflationary tributaries .741 - .550 Puebla tithe .975 -.190 variables: years of crisis .463 -.106 Michoacdn tithe .979 -.164

silver production .936 - .034

Bureaucratic tributes reales .206 .924 variables: pulque .816 .172

alcabala .769 .484 novenos reales .722 .123

Purchasing- revolts .519 - .066 power land disputes .547 - .423 variables: maize prices .542 - .437

flour prices .454 - .596 monuments -.450 .759

other, which underscores the identical role of both tithe variables in our analysis. Of all other arrows, the one nearest to the tithe vectors is silver production; in fact, silver production and the tithes form a cluster of highly correlating, interrelated variables. The only agrarian variable, or purchasing-power variable, that points in the same direction is the one of registered revolts in the Central Mexican countryside, but then its arrow is rather short (coordinates .519 and -.o66). The same applies to the "years of crisis" variable. In the bottom right of the figure, the agrarian variables land disputes, maize prices, and flour prices form a second cluster of highly interrelated variables (together with the inflationary variable tributaries). Contrary to the tithes/silver cluster, this cluster correlates just as strongly with the first as with the second dimension of the state.

Two variables stand out from these clusters. As would be expected, we find the tributes reales at an odd-one-out position in the figure, at nearly a right angle from both clusters. This right angle indicates that the tributes reales variable follows an independent course from the variables united in both clusters. The different orientation with respect to other bureaucratic variables like pulque revenues or novenos reales revenues indicates that




1.25-

tributes reales

monuments

0.75

-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~alcabala

pulque 0.25

-~~~~~~~~~~ no~~~~~~~~~~~~venos reales r silver

-0.25 ladtithes

w . . / ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~disputes maize prces dse

3, tributaries

X -0.75 flour

c = crises

r = revolts

-1.25 I -1.25 -0.75 -0.25 0.25 0.75 1.25

Correlations with the first dimension of the state

FIGURE 13: Correlations of the Variables with the Two Dimensions of the State: Analysis of the Tithe Variables

the series of the tributes reales was influenced more by other factors than by the bureaucratic component. Tributos reales is the variable that "loads" most strongly on the second dimension. The other striking divergence is the position of the monument-building variable, which is reversely related to the agrarianltributarios cluster. This means that in periods of decreasing maize and flour prices, waning land disputes, and decreasing number of tributaries, the number of monuments under construction increased. In other words, the inflationary development of rising prices, rising tensions in the countryside, and a clear overpopulation in the pueblos de indios of colonial Mexico reduced the possibility of, in this case, the rural poor to contribute to church building. This is a remarkable conclusion for a period of strong religious fervor. The bureaucratic variable alcabala also has some positive correlation with the second dimension, giving evidence that a part of it reflects the pauperization posited by our thesis. Flour prices and tributarios, however, have negative correlations with the second dimension.




TABLE V: Results of Linear Dynamical Systems Analysis: Correlations of the Rotated Solution in Two Dimensions

Variable Dimension Dimension I II

Exogenous: tributaries .668 - .508 years of crisis .553 -.112 silver production .813 - .067

Endogenous: tributes reales .241 .903 pulque revenues .930 .141 revolts .644 .037 land disputes .789 -.416 maize prices .616 - .484 flour prices .584 - .627 monuments -.471 .810

The overpopulation, epidemics, and harvest failures after about 1770-80 reduced the contributions of the poor not only to church building, but to tribute paying as well. It can be documented that the state could not or did not want to force the inhabitants of the pueblos de indios to de- liver their tribute, fearing to lose the legitimacy of its authority in the communities.

The inflationary bias of the late eighteenth-century economy was further explored through a linear dynamic systems analysis with the inflationary variables as exogenous and the bureaucratic and purchasing-power variables as endogenous; the bureaucratic component was reduced by ex- cluding not only the tithe variables but the alcabala and the novenos reales as well. The fit of the solution was .795 (see Table V). The structure of our solution-that is, the relative positioning of the variables' arrows-has changed minimally; compare Figure 14. (In fact, for reasons of comparison, we have rotated the structure approximately 65 degrees clockwise; there is no difference in interpretation between the solutions in both figures.) The "purchasing-power" aspect of the tributes reales is now stressed. Four variables-land disputes, tributaries, flour prices, and maize prices-again form a distinct cluster. The variable tributaries is most strongly related to the purchasing-power variables in the cluster and opposed to monument building. The monetary, inflationary variable silver production is nearest to the bureaucratic variable pulque revenues. At this point, it underscores the bureaucratic component in the gathering of taxes. Still remarkable is the absence of high correlations of the number of years of crisis with either of the state dimensions. What accounts for this anomaly is not clear.




1.5

tributes reales 1 .0 -

monuments

0.5

revolts pulque

silver crises

land disputes -0.5

flour prices tributaries

maize prices

-1.5- . . ,

-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

Correlations with the first dimension of the state

FIGURE 14: Correlations of the Variables with the Two Dimensions of the State: Rotated Solution of the Exploratory Analysis

As indicated above, the interpretation of the dimensions of the state- space analysis is given by the common aspect of variables that "load" on the dimensions. If the variables that have high correlations with a dimension all have one aspect in common or measure the same phenomenon, that dimension can then be said to represent that aspect. In Figure 14, the first dimension has a strong relationship with the pulque revenues and silver production, but a much weaker relationship with the number of revolts in the Central Mexican countryside and of the years of crisis. There is a weaker relationship with land disputes, tributaries, flour prices and maize prices, but these variables correlate also-and in some cases more highly with the second dimension. We identified the production side of the economy as the common element here, and it is tempting to label the x-axis, a bit adventurously, as the dimension of production. The second dimension correlates most strongly with the tributes reales and




monument-building variables; flour prices and tributaries play an opposite and less prominent role. The common element seems to be consumption; the y-axis could thus be named in an equally adventuresome way the dimension of consumption.

From the foregoing analysis, a tentative picture of the dynamics of the economy of Central Mexico between 1710 and 1809 emerges. Years of high levels of pulque revenues and silver production were usually also years of peasant revolts and land disputes. Often these were years of crisis, harvest failures, and higher flour and maize prices, and generally speaking, they occurred in periods of expanding population pressure of relative deprivation of the poor. The years of sharply declining purchasing power of the poor are situated in the lower right part of the figure of our linear dynamic systems analysis solutions. Years of relative prosperity score in the upper left corner of the figure. These years are characterized by intensive monument building, relatively few land disputes, substantial yield of the tributos reales, and low maize prices. The years of prosperity all occurred in the middle period of the eighteenth century, when the number of tributaries had not yet risen to its late eighteenth century peak.

Summary and Prospects

In this article, only some aspects of the Central Mexican economy in the eighteenth century could be discussed. Working in a science of context, our main effort was directed toward relating the meaning of series of tithe data to a set of other series. We try to underscore one of the basic virtues of our discipline: critical evaluation. In colonial Mexican historiography an undertaking of quantitative research is not an easy task. Too much remains hidden in the archives: the precise population development; the rhythm of the prices of basic commodity products; the criteria or procedures by which state revenues were deposited; the development of wages in different cities, towns, and villages; etc. Above all, the agrarian development remains largely obscure, despite some excellent monographs on the social morphology of the region. We lack information on changes in resource management, in cultivation and the crop system, or in the results of the harvests during the colonial period. At the same time, the spread of protoindustrialization is not known, although some tentative articles have appeared (by Pietschmann, Dehouve, and Thomson). What we have shown is that some of the published data contain a previously almost unrecognized bureaucratic component; apart from expressing treasury income they also represent government policy to borrow from its own cajas, open up new cajas in the provinces, deposit money from elsewhere, and the like.

Economic historians never cease to thirst for data, as Lindo Fuentes




wrote in introducing his review of the study of tithe data by Pastor et al. Serial data are hard to obtain, especially on agriculture. In European historiography, historians can, to a certain extent, rely on tithe data in kind. The Mexican tithe data, however, are generally in cash, and we have dem- onstrated that these are unsuitable for use in "agrarian conjuncture." What alternatives exist? The analysis of changes in yield ratios, so profitable in European agrarian history, is also not without problems in the Mexican case, because intensification of agricultural systems during the colonial period would hardly have been possible, as a consequence of thin soils, a dry climate, and the overproduction of wheat. Besides this, as Wilken showed, the agricultural system of colonial Mexico already must have had a high level of intensification. Thus, even a method such as that used by Slicher van Bath in analyzing European yield ratios will probably not be very fruitful in Mexican agrarian history. Mark Overton suggested-for East Anglia, in Britain-another method: computer analysis of probate inventories. But this method would mean a very time-consuming gathering of data in several thousands of files of hacendado and cacique properties in the Ramo de Tierras of Mexico's national archive.42

However, the 17 variables of our critique can be used for some generalizations on eighteenth-century Central Mexican developments; for instance, on the pauperization of the urban and rural poor at the turn of the century, a pauperization that must have followed several decades of midcentury prosperity. The evidence generally points toward serious problems in the economy of Central Mexico in the late eighteenth century, and we were able to explore the complex relationship that exists between some variables using multivariate analyses. On the one hand, this revealed the relative importance of silver production in the Michoa- can region for the Central Mexican economy, related to its inflationary bias. But, on the other hand, one of our main conclusions must be that silver production was not the only variable related to this bias: population growth pushed prices up as commodity production in the end could not match demand. This was, no doubt, due to the reaching of a ceiling on the kind of expansion the region had been experiencing, causing a demand- driven inflation, of which the tithe series are thermometer-like indicators. Although much research must still be done, this conclusion seems to be supported by the results of our multivariate analyses. So, at a time of growing disillusionment with quantitative data like those of the Real Caja

42. Slicher van Bath, "Yield Ratios, 810-1820," AAG Bijdragen, 10 (1963), 1-264; Mark Overton, "Computer Analysis of an Inconsistent Data Source: The Case of Probate Inven- tories," Journal of Historical Geography, 3 (1977), 317-326 and "Estimating Crop Yields for Probate Inventories: An Example from East Anglia, 1580-1740, JEH, 39 (1979), 363- 378; Gene C. Wilken, Good Farmers, Traditional Agriculture and Resource Management in Mexico and Central America (Berkeley, 1987).




of Mexico or the tithe receipts in cash, historians, known for their critical reading of sources, can use modern statistical techniques for a critical evaluation of quantitative data. The use of these techniques promises to give new perspectives for quantitative, exploratory historical research.

Appendix I: Seventeen Indicators of Economic Development in the 51 Provinces of Central Mexico; 1710-1809* (five-year moving averages on the basis of the data in the sources; missing values were estiamted)

1 2 3 4 5 6 Puebla Michoacdn Number of Silver Minting Mining

Year tithe tithe tributaries production of coins taxes

1710 71449 108899 198546 789480 5419383 442988 1711 88446 101986 192350 746670 4991499 330987 1712 91424 98755 192753 747030 4960564 312052 1713 94010 94885 186799 738991 4826015 278618 1714 92852 91089 187323 759265 4811429 273295 1715 95836 88585 187579 761327 4723816 345266 1716 102635 85446 183782 777461 4756056 383817 1717 102933 87328 178321 801881 4932665 428919 1718 104569 88849 179681 837303 5241776 433778 1719 102919 92032 178496 906314 5660413 439459

1720 97720 93708 178045 955088 5932932 363766 1721 94098 96139 178045 977059 6055262 363053 1722 92094 103692 178045 991509 6237553 338550 1723 92997 115051 178045 979638 6706014 482495 1724 99599 130021 178045 950836 7423912 679632 1725 102845 144423 186282 934581 6427363 338087 1726 115285 157538 193319 960962 7607580 636879 1727 136803 167434 191421 983131 8326213 772847 1728 148848 177700 190732 1039038 9073542 922992 1729 147092 184317 189281 1043820 9382927 972704

1730 136861 183467 196110 1057782 9629554 939536 1731 150408 187080 196110 1076164 9822771 1015601 1732 154045 188721 196110 1068907 9879687 1012594 1733 157853 182722 201231 1025993 10175895 970791 1734 156117 185016 206352 1086608 9148130 1011594 1735 163544 188647 211472 1072388 9557803 1110283 1736 151751 188069 216593 1060163 9516825 1006955 1737 152643 184301 221714 1061202 9536145 991649 1738 153124 186223 221714 1099650 9845385 993556 1739 159603 179473 221714 1043842 9333507 885672

1740 140812 172171 201803 1045133 9401042 821683 1741 147857 164369 195432 1024633 9295012 803946 1742 144299 161589 185318 1065440 9718584 851746 1743 138690 160208 184297 1083592 9925011 893835 1744 143588 164689 180167 1151000 10463182 957280 1745 160542 172955 188933 1241000 11181839 1001545 1746 150363 182417 188933 1311800 11688141 1047378 1747 159843 206999 188933 1348000 11906387 1097253 1748 176125 230592 191332 1415800 12459618 1161949 1749 183587 233267 193730 1442200 12651684 1162665

1750 187568 232645 196129 1480400 12954633 1253276 1751 193393 234096 198527 1479600 12972235 1285266 1752 177956 217557 200926 1474200 12912965 1251252 1753 182265 200496 200926 1457200 12777107 1206350 1754 176219 200843 200926 1449400 12813840 1245130




Appendix (continued):

1 2 3 4 5 6 Puebla Michoacdn Number of Silver Minting Mining

Year tithe tithe tributaries production of coins taxes

1755 173097 205753 191369 1423600 12641093 1212280 1756 166443 213256 189067 1450979 12818270 1233139 1757 179624 219214 186188 1484579 13131003 1289609 1758 175163 232664 186554 1472579 13014205 1306112 1759 187331 238696 190528 1460379 12888093 1314262

1760 187645 242208 191364 1403567 12409734 1266465 1761 194905 239287 202250 1380448 12348814 1189475 1762 198516 235600 200948 1304460 11722468 1116745 1763 197079 221023 198532 1295715 11713843 1069134 1764 192551 210762 195033 1282281 11570309 1002625 1765 190886 200952 182699 1289354 11638464 1041668 1766 191111 200745 182699 1301211 11762100 1033181 1767 191396 202053 182699 1351712 12188754 1077564 1768 198374 211651 182699 1406335 12626631 1117660 1769 198887 228682 182699 1443820 12947658 1208004

1770 199432 246877 187547 1598096 14514716 1221937 1771 191040 259317 196801 1754668 15910210 1322827 1772 190898 271261 199318 1777098 16146962 1303066 1773 191070 270660 200260 1784603 16235938 1313299 1774 182464 266920 203960 1870723 17028359 1333272 1775 185874 266860 210581 1957108 17555363 1427349 1776 199542 269780 210581 1958573 17653850 1472488 1777 200529 270780 210581 2095140 18807551 1528838 1778 206623 282220 213596 2158771 19303964 1593312 1779 237962 287900 216611 2233612 19908025 1597031

1780 251229 294700 219625 2150799 19119162 1538121 1781 242493 301300 222640 2245679 19716542 1617162 1782 253011 306360 225655 2286362 20036926 1669196 1783 257350 310320 225211 2309800 20249115 1643180 1784 250062 317800 224766 2243357 19633367 1542382 1785 241700 329760 224322 2204276 19339337 1416548 1786 250329 333400 223877 2121154 18625279 1241538 1787 258793 341520 223433 2123725 18643787 1082624 1788 258992 345803 223433 2110662 18541483 1092416 1789 251227 352775 223433 2187667 19314404 1249218

1790 260446 360837 229575 2368660 20931344 1460147 1791 283395 451646 245793 2459498 21764660 1624544 1792 286036 458592 248901 2473995 21940884 1715564 1793 296873 461664 244734 2626480 23246842 1452132 1794 325823 457532 290970 2724521 24151413 2618112 1795 326937 445060 309507 2743350 24328412 3065489 1796 300631 360353 313086 2733208 24266742 3481567 1797 298874 365686 326201 2730256 24275160 3883740 1798 335885 369801 340113 2588322 23093599 4442363 1799 307851 375508 301853 2490018 21278374 3497240

1800 328048 403906 276795 2398879 20022086 3057986 1801 328824 419029 276795 2331981 19854550 2875636 1802 332242 421968 276795 2309783 20861925 3045344 1803 355192 443563 276795 2431308 22557968 3299851 1804 350689 470363 276795 2500065 24191483 3345637 1805 349939 480270 286619 2568823 24834703 3578472 1806 342721 495416 277058 2637580 24578622 3340673 1807 340858 507872 275689 2706337 24395219 3323972 1808 335326 513401 267260 2706337 23358061 3047869 1809 370735 487278 314856 2706337 26172982 4153522





7 8 9 10 11 12 Pulque Alcabala Novenos Tributos Maize Flour

Year revenues revenues reales reales prices prices

1710 153492 424264 50849 365247 21.9 79 1711 138392 272609 41728 349735 21.4 78 1712 137542 298036 54767 353798 21.2 78 1713 168050 238515 56882 341501 18.0 73 1714 211110 249779 56213 319508 17.0 73 1715 127230 239850 59581 306352 15.2 68 1716 110857 266941 55218 316556 13.3 64 1717 121501 214016 42556 327634 10.8 61 1718 131251 236581 37072 341703 11.5 62 1719 140105 254465 50539 353275 9.3 59

1720 181412 274190 42932 373523 9.0 62 1721 147360 267292 50378 358772 11.0 64 1722 214882 287000 11336 339027 12.1 65 1723 183779 272716 50686 349771 12.8 66 1724 154711 449018 73487 427163 12.4 64 1725 133610 174835 47467 209081 12.0 63 1726 162599 424135 53021 334869 11.8 61 1727 166109 315592 49559 398651 11.5 59 1728 155182 318852 53300 462738 12.0 56 1729 161049 180896 59134 487423 12.5 57

1730 174231 237690 62635 522822 12.9 61 1731 171789 309782 68045 523359 13.1 59 1732 186324 372217 73518 520749 12.6 60 1733 199787 468559 78720 512458 11.6 61 1734 191276 500284 69620 493516 11.7 62 1735 190219 506147 74624 454173 12.5 62 1736 188121 515730 69939 388758 13.1 66 1737 190025 522724 68579 338520 14.5 67 1738 179216 493615 63911 315004 16.5 68 1739 191192 526901 81852 296976 18.0 69

1740 189092 519143 80319 361525 17.1 79 1741 219243 770132 77364 429113 15.9 85 1742 204066 832145 75760 559990 14.4 80 1743 198001 793783 77083 613110 13.3 78 1744 192133 752622 75395 669973 12.1 76 1745 189021 788014 68887 644448 12.8 73 1746 162540 624726 82304 676806 15.1 72 1747 180152 554067 84456 626654 18.1 73 1748 185606 712827 84943 621639 20.3 74 1749 188262 791103 84259 625168 24.9 75

1750 181365 791411 88837 640518 13.6 75 1751 181108 772288 83032 646733 12.7 73 1752 183020 958472 80154 654578 11.2 66 1753 184812 974422 81775 673090 11.3 59 1754 185179 1017923 81268 691550 11.3 54 1755 196071 1052184 78189 705448 11.4 53 1756 200821 1069201 82054 720159 14.0 54 1757 202485 1036181 87821 753064 14.6 58 1758 205348 969963 94452 763799 12.7 61 1759 207545 984388 91084 761860 15.3 60

1760 215144 1052865 97999 745855 15.0 57 1761 235995 1074897 97088 664609 14.1 55 1762 272504 954183 94893 607267 11.2 54 1763 303700 935503 90391 584184 10.2 53 1764 330946 923741 85742 594389 9.4 53





7 8 9 10 11 12 Pulque Alcabala Novenos Tributos Maize Flour

Year revenues revenues reales reales prices prices

1765 354806 887924 76431 600098 9.6 54 1766 358781 887374 73371 668498 9.8 52 1767 347620 979255 73687 710000 10.5 55 1768 338175 1060268 74844 750489 11.3 63 1769 328090 1035501 80538 760648 13.3 64

1770 322183 1029114 92061 767350 14.6 64 1771 335599 1151707 101776 786073 15.6 70 1772 348214 1161385 104766 801881 15.6 70 1773 365238 1134363 112727 795882 16.1 62 1774 396946 1157009 118557 800210 14.1 61 1775 447011 1251838 120151 843178 12.4 62 1776 480474 1308774 112284 852169 11.6 56 1777 530431 1391777 110726 865296 12.0 57 1778 583940 1482041 111541 853600 13.0 64 1779 661434 1719302 114770 858663 15.0 67

1780 710841 1786607 112830 854811 18.2 70 1781 784764 1782138 123255 860302 20.0 74 1782 836105 1925810 134748 843549 16.6 75 1783 870975 2112799 144439 851139 11.1 74 1784 778706 1908967 148632 771791 25.0 82 1785 648847 1760018 185484 693634 30.5 83 1786 583371 1737557 232601 666218 27.6 84 1787 557698 1535155 304280 633532 21.2 82 1788 511542 1358567 301965 614408 20.7 79 1789 554833 1411231 297242 626778 19.6 70

1790 642943 1485316 285632 658270 14.9 67 1791 648407 1395954 278338 644040 10.0 65 1792 604649 1417124 278524 634741 19.4 66 1793 582854 1318712 250917 546209 18.0 68 1794 574279 1269995 252974 509724 20.7 69 1795 565713 1184183 210603 440876 17.0 70 1796 545387 1068125 174779 373342 18.5 72 1797 539972 963617 102783 318886 18.4 79 1798 547835 931034 120379 331816 19.3 85 1799 537598 916132 113655 321570 21.2 87

1800 550014 962832 150863 322139 20.7 88 1801 534302 1025964 147123 318314 19.7 87 1802 498532 1051332 155168 320375 19.3 81 1803 488060 1082351 154311 326455 19.8 76 1804 473665 1033222 144059 334965 18.3 81 1805 455348 1040479 112686 338043 19.2 83 1806 496672 1048757 92157 340462 21.5 87 1807 464659 1058580 88004 344020 24.8 92 1808 493354 1127216 91436 341360 28.1 91 1809 417240 1048753 167966 351239 34.5 101





13 14 15 16 17 Flour Land Number Years Number of

Year shipments disputes of revolts of crisis monuments

1710 66904 90 1 3.0 17 1711 71036 90 1 3.0 17 1712 71301 90 1 3.0 17 1713 78741 84 1 2.4 18 1714 84679 78 0 1.8 19 1715 82821 73 0 1.2 19 1716 88334 67 0 0.6 20 1717 94532 61 0 0.0 21 1718 93623 62 0 0.2 21 1719 96500 63 1 0.4 22

1720 109246 65 1 0.6 22 1721 105456 66 1 0.8 23 1722 101842 67 1 1.0 23 1723 104819 62 0 1.0 24 1724 97224 56 0 1.0 24 1725 101556 51 0 1.0 25 1726 89473 45 0 1.0 25 1727 87390 40 0 1.0 26 1728 87200 43 1 1.2 27 1729 89781 46 1 1.4 27

1730 91150 48 0 1.6 28 1731 90465 51 1 1.8 28 1732 92194 54 1 2.0 29 1733 83963 53 1 2.0 29 1734 84971 52 1 2.4 29 1735 80348 52 1 2.6 28 1736 78550 51 0 2.8 28 1737 79010 50 0 3.0 28 1738 84025 53 0 2.6 28 1739 95121 56 0 2.2 28

1740 110873 60 0 1.8 29 1741 116483 63 0 1.4 29 1742 121752 66 0 1.0 29 1743 116915 63 0 1.0 28 1744 113678 59 1 1.0 27 1745 107173 56 1 1.0 27 1746 108764 52 0 1.0 26 1747 103451 49 0 1.0 25 1748 113031 46 0 1.0 27 1749 117766 43 0 1.0 28

1750 111659 40 0 1.0 30 1751 112320 37 0 1.0 31 1752 110186 34 0 1.0 33 1753 107596 37 0 0.8 32 1754 107742 40 0 0.6 31 1755 107835 44 0 0.4 29 1756 105717 47 0 0.2 28 1757 103980 50 0 0.0 27 1758 105748 49 0 0.4 28 1759 105144 49 0 0.8 28





13 14 15 16 17 Flour Land Number Years Number of

Year shipments disputes of revolts of crisis monuments

1760 90102 48 1 1.2 29 1761 78438 48 0 1.6 29 1762 81032 47 1 2.0 30 1763 101834 49 1 1.8 31 1764 101373 51 1 1.6 31 1765 109861 54 1 1.4 32 1766 109829 56 1 1.2 32 1767 115264 58 2 1.0 33 1768 116218 59 2 1.2 33 1769 111314 60 1 1.2 33

1770 108209 62 2 1.6 34 1771 107069 63 2 1.8 34 1772 104589 64 1 2.0 34 1773 107002 65 1 2.1 34 1774 114686 66 1 2.2 33 1775 112684 67 1 2.3 33 1776 113513 68 1 2.4 32 1777 114283 69 1 2.5 32 1778 110873 72 1 2.3 31 1779 106632 75 1 2.0 29

1780 103097 77 1 1.9 28 1781 100176 80 1 1.7 26 1782 97883 83 1 1.5 25 1783 96974 80 1 1.8 24 1784 101511 77 1 2.1 22 1785 101229 73 1 2.4 21 1786 99850 70 1 2.7 19 1787 100693 67 1 3.0 18 1788 105841 69 1 2.8 18 1789 101946 71 0 2.6 18

1790 98465 74 1 2.4 18 1791 99088 76 1 2.2 18 1792 81066 78 0 2.0 18 1793 92562 82 1 2.2 17 1794 81704 85 1 2.4 16 1795 79158 89 1 2.6 16 1796 87603 92 1 2.8 15 1797 92785 96 1 3.0 14 1798 96531 97 1 2.7 14 1799 99638 97 1 2.4 15

1800 105527 98 2 2.1 15 1801 110038 98 2 1.8 16 1802 109904 99 1 1.5 16 1803 113475 94 2 1.6 15 1804 113101 89 2 1.7 13 1805 107884 85 2 1.8 12 1806 105546 80 2 1.9 10 1807 108373 75 2 2.0 9 1808 107246 75 2 2.0 9 1809 121421 75 0 2.0 9

* For description of these variables see text.




Appendix II: Canonical Correlation Analysis and Linear Dynamic Systems Analysis

It seems appropriate to set out clearly the possibilities and limitations of any statistical analysis of historical data. Scientists have always been interested to uncover the causes of the phenomena they observe. They formulate physical laws that explain their observations, or, if that is impossible, they conduct experiments to find relationships between phenomena, gathering empirical data to use in theory building. In an experiment, the researcher controls and manipulates the (usually random) distribution of subjects or observation units to achieve experimental conditions. On that ground, the researcher can prove that a treatment here caused a result elsewhere. The big stumbling block in the analysis of historical data is that it is, of course, impossible to conduct experiments. As in other obser- vational research, the historian has to be satisfied with the registration of events and the computation of correlation coefficients between phenomena. As correlation coefficients are an index of simultaneous occurring, and of nothing more than that, they do not justify conclusions other than: "The occurrence of phenomenon A is related to the occurrence of phenomenon B." In a correlation coefficient, the relationship between two events has no direction. In other words, the correlation between two events may be the result of event A causing B, event B causing A, or a third event C causing both A and B. All three mechanisms are equally likely, and it is impossible to uncover statistically which of the three is true. Of course, when there is no correlation between two events A and B, one may confidently infer that A does not cause B, and vice versa. Thus, for testing hypotheses about causality, simple correlation coefficients are an inadequate tool.

Also, we are not interested in numerous specific relations (17 variables produce 136 correlation coefficients!); we would rather investigate the "general" relations in our data. For instance, the inflationary variables tributaries, years of crisis, and silver production are not of interest to us by themselves, but for their relation to something we could not measure directly: inflation. The inflationary variables are considered indicators of this phenomenon, all three reflecting various aspects of inflation. Thus, it would not be informative to know the correlation between, for example, one of the tithe variables and the tributaries variable. Instead, what we do want to know is the strength of the relationship between, e.g., both tithe variables and the group of inflation variables, or the strength of the relationships between both tithe variables and the group of bureaucratic variables. For this we need a technique that investigates the relations between groups or sets of variables.



528 HAHR AUGUST OUWENEEL AND BIJLEVELD

As set out in the text, canonical correlation analysis is a linear multivariate analysis technique that gives the strength (reflected by the canonical correlation) and nature (reflected by the correlations of the variables with the canonical variable of their set) of the relationship between two sets of variables. By weighted addition the original variables have been combined into one communal canonical variable for each set; the canonical correlation is the ordinary correlation coefficient between the canonical variables. The weighted addition of the respective variables into canonical variables is done in such a way that the canonical correlation between the two sets is maximized. If, for instance, of the variables in the first set one particular variable is strongly related to the variables in the second set, it is advantageous to let this particular variable play an ample role in the weighted construction of the canonical variable of the first set. The contribution of the respective variables in relating the two sets is thus reflected in the correlations that the variables have with the canonical variable of their set. In Figure iil a schematic representation was given of canonical correlation analysis of the tithe receipts and the inflationary, bureaucratic, and purchasing-power variables. Note that, as with the correlation coefficient, in canonical correlation analysis the relation between the two sets has no direction; switching the first and second sets has no effect on the solution.

However, simple correlation coefficients, as well as canonical correlation analysis, do not incorporate the time character of our time-series data. Like most statistical analysis tools, the former two have been designed for the analysis of observation units that are assumed to be independent replications of the same basic structure. This assumption is not tenable for our data; it is in fact quite likely that, for instance, the flour price of a certain year is related to the flour price of the former year. In the case of time-related data, the observation points are dependent in time and cannot be assumed to be independently randomly distributed. The fact that two time series T and U are correlated is, as in the independent case, in itself no indication of a causal relationship between them. In addition, even when there is no correlation between the two time series T and U, there could still exist a causal relationship between them. If, for instance, event T causes event U after one month, we will never uncover this causal relationship using data that are on a yearly basis only. In short, if we wish to examine the causal relationship of population pressure, inflation, or other forces acting on Central Mexican economic development, we will have to use a technique that accommodates the time structure of the data. The technique we propose to use for this purpose is called state space or linear dynamic systems analysis. Unlike canonical correlation analysis, where the two sets of variables are treated symmetrically,




linear dynamic systems analysis distinguishes between exogenous and endogenous variables (also sometimes called the input and output variables) that are related through time. The variables and the relations between them constitute the linear dynamic system.

The linear dynamic system is specified more formally as follows. If we have measurements from time i until time T, then the linear dynamic model states that the exogenous variables at time t influence the endogenous at time t. Furthermore, past occurrences influence future occurrences through a postulated latent variable, named state or latent state. Given T measurements on a number of exogenous variables X (X ={xl, ... . , XT}) and on a number of endogenous variables Y (Y = {1, , YTP, and given the latent states Z (Z = {zl, ZT}), the linear dynamic model is specified as:

zt = F zt-l + G xt (system equation) yt = H zt (measurement equation),

with F, G, and H transition matrices specifying the respective influences of past states on current states, of exogenous variables on the states, and of the states on the endogenous variables. The latent states Z function as a memory of the system, as all influence of past occurrences on the present state Zt is contained in the past state zt-1. Also, the states function as a filter, because all influence of the exogenous variables on the endogenous variables "passes" through the latent states. A schematic representation of linear dynamic systems analysis of the inflationary, bureaucratic, and purchasing-power variables versus the tithe variables was given in Figure 12.

Contrary to ordinary correlation coefficients and canonical correlation analysis, linear dynamic systems analysis treats exogenous and endogenous variables differently. This can also be seen by comparing Figures ii and 12. In Figure ii, the variables in the upper part of the diagram may be exchanged with those in the bottom part; this has no effect on the solution. But if we switch the variables in Figure 12 in the same way, we analyze a fundamentally different model: the direction of the arrows specifies in that case a model in which the tithe variables are postulated to cause the number of tributaries, years of crisis, etc. !

The linear dynamic systems analysis solution is interpreted using the correlations of the respective variables with the latent states; as in canonical correlation analysis, not the weights (in this case the transition matrices F, G, and H) but the correlations of the original variables with the constructed variable serve to interpret the solution. A measure of the strength of the relation between exogenous and endogenous variables is




given by the so-called fit of the solution. Several latent states z may be modeled to accommodate differential relations between variables; each so-called dimension of the state embodies another qualitatively different relationship between the variables. By finding the common aspect of the variables that have high correlations with the respective dimensions of the state, these dimensions may be labeled and interpreted. However, while canonical correlation analysis is performed by a straightforward compu- tational procedure that is available in software packages like SPSS-X and SAS, linear dynamic systems analysis is a newly developed technique which requires a more complicated estimation procedure, for which the computer program DYNAMALS has been developed recently.43

To sum up, linear dynamic systems analysis has two advantages over canonical correlation analysis: it incorporates the time relation between measurements; and it provides imbalanced treatment of exogenous and endogenous variables. Although a strong relationship between two phenomena appearing from linear dynamic systems analysis is still not irrefut- able proof of a causal relationship, causality is, for both reasons, more likely than in the case of canonical correlation analyses.

43. Bijleveld, DYNAMALS Progress Report, passim.



Ouweneel & Bijleveld 1989 - HAHR - The Economic Cycle in Bourbon Central Mexico

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