Outlook M-cities in South America Building inventories Inverse modeling Summary Credit: C. Mayhew &...
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Transcript of Outlook M-cities in South America Building inventories Inverse modeling Summary Credit: C. Mayhew &...
Outlook
• M-cities in South America
• Building inventories
• Inverse modeling
• Summary
Credit: C. Mayhew & R. Simmon (NASA/GSFC), NOAA/
NGDC, DMSP Digital Archive
South American Megacities
> 75% of South
Americans live in M-cities!!
In most cities, environmental policies are targeted at first towards diminishing acute health impacts
Sao Paulo, Brazil
Santiago, Chile
When the objectives become more ambitious (long-term impacts, more expensive and less obvious measures, etc.)•Emissions have to be more accurate and be used in combination with models•Regional monitoring networks are needed•Traffic emissions and planning become foci
2+2=4, right?
• SA M-cities concentrate population, environmental problems and resources
• M-cities are global change drivers
• This issue can merge efforts and strenghten the region
UMESAM-Objectives• To establish an international network of scientists able to
connect local air quality initiatives and global environmental change research in South America.
• To provide a common and comparable methodology that combines bottom-up and top-down inventory building techniques and that can be readily applied in South American cities for estimating, as a first
and triggering step, emission inventories for mobile sources.
• To reduce the uncertainties in emissions inventories of several major pollutants, including CO, NOx, particulate matter and GHGs, at both continental and urban scales, instrumental to air quality and climate modeling.
Atmospheric science Appl. MathematicsComputer ScienceMechanical & Chemical Engineering
+6 students
Started March 29 2004
UMESAM ACTIVITIES
• Measurent of vehicular activity and CO emission estimates in Lima, Sao Paulo, Santiago, Bogotá
• Direct and inverse simulations at various scales using CO observations as constrain
•Collaboration Network•Methodology•New inventories for mobile sources•Inventory Optimization•Training
Building inventories for mobile sources
Good statistics, traffic modeling and local emission factors, i.e., EXPENSIVE
•vehicle type•driving behavior•local conditions
E.g., Santiago’s and Sao Paulo’s already have Inventories!
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CO HC NOx SO2 IP
Light Duty vehicles Heavy Duty vehicles Industrial emissions
Particles Resuspension Secondary aerosols
International Vehicle Emission Model (IVE)
1.Choose representative streets2.Determine fractions of vehicle technology classes
(video taping, parking lots survey)3.Identify main driving patterns (GPS)4.Determine start patterns
IVE: Unexpensive, Fast, Comparable
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
CO/10 VOC NOx PM*10 CO2/40
Em
iss
ion
Ra
te [
gr/
km
]
Almaty
Lima
Los Angeles
Mexico
Nairobi
Pune
Santiago
+Bogotá
Inventories for Buenos Aires & Bogotá…ongoing!
Bogotá
Regional
Global
Modeling at various scales
LocalPétron et al, Longo et al, Muñoz et al
Ei, i=1,...n
M
Sj, j=1,...m
Mt
$…0
f
J&fεμ(f)μ(f) J
22obsmod
IC ;Bf;λμμ).K.(-μ.vt
μLμ C
�
*CI CB*;g;λμμ).K.(-μ.vt
μμL T**
�
Modeling
J1) Best Linear Unbiased Estimator
•It will be used to better estimate source strength and time variation for Santiago’s and Sao Paulo’s CO inventories
J2) Adjoint
fεμ(f)μJN
iiiobs
2
1
mod
*i
N
ioi
** με
fμ-)(fμgμL obs 1
1
mod
Improve inventories….optimal monitoring network design
…UMESAM is a pilot network project functional for better understanding (science) and management both at local (city-by-city) and regional/continental scales
•Common methodologies for building and evaluating emission inventories•Optimization of available inventories for Santiago and Sao Paulo•New inventories for Buenos Aires, Bogotá & Lima•A NETWORK IS AT WORK!!