Outlook For Performance-Based Logistics · PDF fileOutlook For Performance-Based Logistics ......

Ann Arbor, Michigan • Amersham, U.K.www.AeroStrategy.com

Aviation Maintenance Professional SymposiumSan Diego, California1 & 2 October 2008

Outlook For PerformanceOutlook For Performance--Based LogisticsBased LogisticsAn Overview Of The Global Military Aircraft MRO MarketAn Overview Of The Global Military Aircraft MRO Market

Presented byPresented byKevin Michaels, PrincipalKevin Michaels, Principal

AeroStrategy LLCAeroStrategy LLC

2US Navy Maintenance Professionals SymposiumAeroStrategy © 2008 AeroStrategy

Current State Of PBL

AgendaAgenda

The Military MRO MarketThe Military MRO Market

Key Issues


The Current Military Aircraft Fleet Is Around 39,000 AircraftThe Current Military Aircraft Fleet Is Around 39,000 Aircraft

2008 Active Military Aircraft FleetTotal = 39,113

Trainer / Trainer / Light Light

AttackAttack14%14%

Fighter / Fighter / Attack 23%Attack 23%

Transport Transport –– Lt/Med Lt/Med

8%8%

Rotary Wing Rotary Wing –– AttackAttack

4%4%

General General Aviation / Aviation / Utility 4%Utility 4%

Special Mission Special Mission 3%3% Tanker Tanker

2%2% Transport Transport ––Heavy 1%Heavy 1%

Source: AeroStrategy/OAGback

Rotary WingRotary WingTransport / UtilityTransport / Utility

37%37%

NewNew11%11%

MatureMature51%51%

OldOld38%38%


The FThe F--16 Is The Largest Fleet Accounting For 8.4%16 Is The Largest Fleet Accounting For 8.4%Of The TotalOf The Total

Aircraft Type

# of Countries

2008 Fleet

% of Fleet Top Three Countries

F-16 24 3305 8.4% USA – 1332; Israel – 330; Turkey – 222

UH-60 13 1735 4.4% USA – 1492; S. Korea – 99; Japan – 97

UH-1 36 1721 4.4% USA – 384; Germany – 173; Japan – 165

C-130 66 1465 3.7% USA – 810; Saudi Arabia – 59; UK – 38

F-18 8 1419 3.6% USA – 1007; Canada – 115; Spain – 88

F-15 6 1218 3.1% USA – 699; Japan – 203; Saudi Arabia – 169

F-5 25 1148 2.9% S. Korea – 256; Taiwan – 168; S. Arabia – 99

AH-64 11 859 2.2% USA – 616; Israel – 51; Egypt – 34

CH-47 14 796 2.0% USA – 504; Japan – 71; S. Korea – 45

Gazelle 22 788 2.0% France – 304; Serbia – 139; Egypt – 89

Top Ten Military Aircraft Fleets - 2008



The Military Fleet Continues Its Decline The Military Fleet Continues Its Decline –– Dropping Below Dropping Below 38,000 Aircraft By 201838,000 Aircraft By 2018

CumulativeDeliveries

2007Fleet Less

Retirements

Mili

tary

Airc

raft

Flee

t 37,95038,62639,133

2008 – 2018 Global Military Aircraft Fleet Forecast

Sources: AeroStrategy/OAGback


AeroStrategyAeroStrategy’’s Analysis Covers Four Main Segments s Analysis Covers Four Main Segments Of Military Aircraft MROOf Military Aircraft MRO

Engine OverhaulMajor scheduled events (overhaul, hot section inspection)

ComponentsMaintenance expenditure for major aircraft system/component categories

Organizational and intermediate-level maintenance support

Field Maintenance

Airframe HeavyScheduled “depot-level” and airframe heavy maintenance at offsite government or contractor depots

Note: Excludes major modification programs


2008 Global Military Aircraft MRO Spending 2008 Global Military Aircraft MRO Spending Over $60 BillionOver $60 Billion

2008 Military MRO MarketTotal = $60.7 B

Figures are for western aircraft only

US Reconstitution / ResetUS Reconstitution / Reset~$2.5 ~$2.5

Field MaintenanceField Maintenance$28.8 $28.8

Airframe HeavyAirframe Heavy$11.7 $11.7

Component Component OverhaulOverhaul

$9.6 $9.6

Engine OverhaulEngine Overhaul$8.1 $8.1



US Military Aircraft MRO Expenditures Are More Than US Military Aircraft MRO Expenditures Are More Than Twice That Of The Next Largest RegionTwice That Of The Next Largest Region

2008 Military MRO MarketTotal = $60.7 B

Reset

Figures are for western aircraft onlySource: AeroStrategy/OAGback


Airframe Depot Maintenance Spending Approaches Airframe Depot Maintenance Spending Approaches $12 Billion in 2008$12 Billion in 2008

2008 Military Airframe MRO MarketTotal = $11.7 B

Rotary Wing Rotary Wing AttackAttack$273M$273MTanker, $617MTanker, $617M General Aviation / UtilityGeneral Aviation / Utility

$87M $87M

Trainer / Light Trainer / Light Attack, $705MAttack, $705M

Transport Transport -- Lt/MedLt/Med$804M $804M

Transport Transport -- HeavyHeavy$911M $911M

Special MissionSpecial Mission$1,088M$1,088M

Rotary Wing Rotary Wing --Transport/UtilityTransport/Utility

$1,732M $1,732M

Fighter / AttackFighter / Attack$5,507M $5,507M



Flight Deck Avionics Are The Single Largest Flight Deck Avionics Are The Single Largest Component MRO CategoryComponent MRO Category

2008 Military Component MRO MarketTotal = $9.6 B

OtherOther$1,453 M$1,453 M

Flight Flight Deck Deck

AvionicsAvionics$2,372 M$2,372 M

Dynamic Dynamic CompComp

$1,145 M$1,145 M

Landing Landing GearGear

$967 M$967 M

HydraulicHydraulic$898 M$898 M

Mission Mission AvionicsAvionics$753 M$753 M

W&BW&B$578 M$578 M

ElectricalElectrical$419 M$419 M

FuelFuel$388 M$388 M

APUAPU$331 M$331 M

PneumaticsPneumatics$284 M$284 M



Engine MRO Spending Exceeds $8.0B; GE Engines Engine MRO Spending Exceeds $8.0B; GE Engines Account For More Than OneAccount For More Than One--Third Of The DemandThird Of The Demand

2008 Military Engine MRO MarketTotal = $8.1 B

General ElectricGeneral Electric41%41%

Pratt & WhitneyPratt & Whitney29%29%

TurbounionTurbounion4%4%

HoneywellHoneywell3%3%

TurbomecaTurbomeca3%3%

SnecmaSnecma6%6%

Rolls RoyceRolls Royce11%11%

OtherOther 2%2% Rolls Royce / TurbomecaRolls Royce / Turbomeca1%1%



Fighters And Rotary Wing Aircraft Drive 70% Of Field Fighters And Rotary Wing Aircraft Drive 70% Of Field Maintenance SpendingMaintenance Spending

2008 Military Field Maintenance MarketTotal = $28.8 B

Fighter / Fighter / AttackAttack44%44%

Rotary Wing Rotary Wing ––Transport / Transport /

UtilityUtility20%20%

Transport Transport ––Lt / MedLt / Med

14%14%

Special Special MissionMission

8%8%

Rotary Wing Rotary Wing ––AttackAttack

6%6%

Trainer / Light AttackTrainer / Light Attack3%3%

GA / GA / Utility Utility

1%1%

Transport Transport ––HeavyHeavy

2%2%TankerTanker

2%2%



Despite A Declining Fleet And Declining Reset Dollars, MRO Despite A Declining Fleet And Declining Reset Dollars, MRO Expenditures Still Grow To Almost $65 BillionExpenditures Still Grow To Almost $65 Billion

Global Military Maintenance Market Forecast2008 – 2018

• The decline in Reset causes overall growth to be less than 1%• 2% increase due to ageing offsets the fleet decline

Figures are in constant 2006 dollars

Engine Overhaul

Component Overhaul

Airframe Heavy

Field Maintenance

60.7 64.8US Reset



Current State Of PBLCurrent State Of PBL

AgendaAgenda

The Military MRO Market

Key Issues


PBL Has Evolved Significantly Since Its PBL Has Evolved Significantly Since Its ConceptionConception

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1998 NDAA 1998 NDAA Mandates DoD To Mandates DoD To

Report To Congress Report To Congress on on ““Product Support Product Support

ReengineeringReengineering””

First PBLs: FFirst PBLs: F--117 & 117 & APUsAPUs

DoD Issues DoD Issues Report and Report and 30 RTOC 30 RTOC

Pilot Pilot Programs Programs

are launchedare launched

2001 QDR 2001 QDR Mandates Mandates

““PBLPBL””

PBL PM PBL PM Guidebook Guidebook PublishedPublished

DoD Acquisition DoD Acquisition Policy identifies PBL Policy identifies PBL

as the Preferred as the Preferred Support StrategySupport Strategy

ACAT 1 & 2 Systems ACAT 1 & 2 Systems to use PBL or justify to use PBL or justify

alternativealternative Source: Supply Chain Visions, AeroStrategy

OSD PBL OSD PBL Policy Policy

Memos: Memos: Business Business

Case Case Analyses used Analyses used

to evaluateto evaluate

Over 200 Over 200 current or current or

planned US planned US DoD PBL DoD PBL ProgramsPrograms

Focus on Focus on Performance Performance

Driven Driven OutcomesOutcomes

Key issues today:Key issues today:•• New versus Legacy?New versus Legacy?•• Which missions?Which missions?•• Platform versus Platform versus

system?system?•• PFI?PFI?

US Military PBL Evolution


PBL Implementation Continues To Expand In The USPBL Implementation Continues To Expand In The US

9/2006 DoD ACAT I / II Program Status

Total CurrentPBL

Scheduled PBL

TotalPBLs

Army 60 18 28 46 (77%)

Navy 85 35 23 58 (68%)

Air Force 70 33 17 50

(71%)

DoD 215 86 68 154 (72%)

Recent DevelopmentsRecent Developments•• US Army extending PBL to more US Army extending PBL to more

helicopters helicopters –– 8 April 20088 April 2008–– Began last year with AHBegan last year with AH--64 Apache64 Apache

–– $173M component level PBL$173M component level PBL–– 90% availability90% availability

–– Extending to CHExtending to CH--47 Chinook47 Chinook–– Boeing partnership with Corpus Boeing partnership with Corpus

Christi Army DepotChristi Army Depot–– Initially focused on rotor bladesInitially focused on rotor blades

•• Ogden ALC awards Honeywell $370M PBL Ogden ALC awards Honeywell $370M PBL contract to support Bcontract to support B--2 and C2 and C--130 APU 130 APU fleetsfleets

–– First PBL issued by OOFirst PBL issued by OO--ALCALC–– Could expand to FCould expand to F--15, C15, C--5, A5, A--10, B110, B1--B, B,

EE--3 and F3 and F--16s at Hill Air Force Base 16s at Hill Air Force Base •• USAF launches business case review of the USAF launches business case review of the

CC--17 GSP Program 17 GSP Program –– arguably the most arguably the most successful PBL programsuccessful PBL program

Source: secondary research, DAU

Number of ACAT I & II ProgramsSupported By PBL COntracts


France Have Progressed Quite Far Toward PBL / PFI; France Have Progressed Quite Far Toward PBL / PFI; Israel Is Beginning That JourneyIsrael Is Beginning That Journey

•• $2.2 billion in MRO spend (3$2.2 billion in MRO spend (3rdrd overall)overall)•• Significant organic capabilitySignificant organic capability

–– AIA BordeauxAIA Bordeaux–– AIA ClermontAIA Clermont--FerrandFerrand–– AIA CuersAIA Cuers--PierrefeuPierrefeu

•• Outsourcing decisions political and jobsOutsourcing decisions political and jobs--relatedrelated

•• Outsourced concentrated with three Outsourced concentrated with three French suppliers:French suppliers:

–– EurocopterEurocopter–– DassaultDassault–– SnecmaSnecma

•• Advanced along the contracting spectrum Advanced along the contracting spectrum with several major contractswith several major contracts

–– €€50m EC145 ILS contract50m EC145 ILS contract–– €€319m Eurocopter helicopter support 319m Eurocopter helicopter support

contract (600+ helicopters with contract (600+ helicopters with availability guarantees)availability guarantees)

–– 22 year EC120 training PFI22 year EC120 training PFI

FRANCEFRANCE

ISRAELISRAEL

•• $2.0 billion in MRO spend (4$2.0 billion in MRO spend (4thth overall)overall)•• Typically relies upon several governmentTypically relies upon several government--

owned and private defense contractorsowned and private defense contractors–– IAI, governmentIAI, government--owned, but owned, but

increasingly independentincreasingly independent–– ElbitElbit–– Bet ShemeshBet Shemesh

•• Ability to outsource severely limitedAbility to outsource severely limited•• Moving into PBL and PFI contractsMoving into PBL and PFI contracts

–– PBH for Bell 206/209 training PBH for Bell 206/209 training helicopters with Cyclone (an Elbit helicopters with Cyclone (an Elbit subsidiary)subsidiary)

–– Grob 120 training PFIGrob 120 training PFI•• New programs / upgradesNew programs / upgrades

–– JSFJSF–– FF--16i16i–– Planned 707 tanker upgradesPlanned 707 tanker upgrades–– Planned CHPlanned CH--53 upgrades53 upgrades

•• Work closely with US Military and Work closely with US Military and extensively use FMS channelsextensively use FMS channels

Source: AeroStrategy,Secondary Research


The UK Is The Leading Innovator In MilitaryThe UK Is The Leading Innovator In MilitarySupport; Turkey Has Limited PBL ExperienceSupport; Turkey Has Limited PBL Experience

•• $1.9 in MRO spend (5$1.9 in MRO spend (5thth Overall)Overall)•• Dramatic steps to restructure their Dramatic steps to restructure their

approach to aircraft supportapproach to aircraft support–– Creation of DE&S (DLO & DPA)Creation of DE&S (DLO & DPA)–– Sale of DARA Fleetlands (Helicopter Sale of DARA Fleetlands (Helicopter

support facilities) to Vectorsupport facilities) to Vector–– Defence Industrial Strategy (DIS)Defence Industrial Strategy (DIS)

•• Moving to Moving to ““ThroughThrough--LifeLife”” support. E.g. :support. E.g. :–– BAE / all fast jetsBAE / all fast jets–– AgustaWestland AgustaWestland –– most helicoptersmost helicopters

•• Most advanced along the Most advanced along the ““Transformation StaircaseTransformation Staircase”” with a with a number of number of ““integratedintegrated”” contractscontracts

–– Marshall Aerospace / CMarshall Aerospace / C--130 HIOS130 HIOS–– AgustaWestland AgustaWestland –– Sea King SKIOSSea King SKIOS–– BAE / Hawk IOSBAE / Hawk IOS–– AgustaWestland AgustaWestland –– Merlin IMOSMerlin IMOS–– UKMFTSUKMFTS–– FSTA PFIFSTA PFI

U.K.U.K. TURKEYTURKEY

•• $1.5 billion in MRO spend (7$1.5 billion in MRO spend (7thth overall)overall)

•• Most MRO provided via governmentMost MRO provided via government--owned Turkish Aerospace Industriesowned Turkish Aerospace Industries

•• TAI responsible for the utilization of the TAI responsible for the utilization of the capabilities of 5th Main Maintenance capabilities of 5th Main Maintenance Center (MMC) and Air Force Supply and Center (MMC) and Air Force Supply and Maintenance Centers (ASMC) of the Maintenance Centers (ASMC) of the Turkish Armed ForcesTurkish Armed Forces

•• Several key new programsSeveral key new programs–– FF--16i Block 5016i Block 50–– FF--35 (TAI to build under license and 35 (TAI to build under license and

provide MRO services)provide MRO services)–– A400M (10 ordered through OCCARA400M (10 ordered through OCCAR

•• Limited experience with PBL or PFILimited experience with PBL or PFI



Germany Has Begun Pursuing PerformanceGermany Has Begun Pursuing Performance--Base Base Contracting; Italy Has Shown Little InterestContracting; Italy Has Shown Little Interest

•• $1.5 billion in MRO spend (8$1.5 billion in MRO spend (8thth overall)overall)•• Some organic capabilities, but fewer than Some organic capabilities, but fewer than

FranceFrance•• Germany has begun the trek moving Germany has begun the trek moving

towards PBL and PFI contractstowards PBL and PFI contracts•• Several Public Private Partnerships with Several Public Private Partnerships with

MTU for engine supportMTU for engine support–– RB199RB199–– EJ200EJ200

•• Recently entered GermanyRecently entered Germany’’s first PFIs first PFI–– NH90 trainingNH90 training–– €€488m, 14.5 year contract with 488m, 14.5 year contract with

Helicopter Flight Training services Helicopter Flight Training services (CAE, Eurocopter, Rheinmetall (CAE, Eurocopter, Rheinmetall Defense Electronics and Thales)Defense Electronics and Thales)

•• Severe O&M budget pressuresSevere O&M budget pressures–– Declining budgetsDeclining budgets–– Fleet recapitalization requirements Fleet recapitalization requirements

(Eurofighter, A400M, NH90)(Eurofighter, A400M, NH90)

GERMANYGERMANY

•• $1.1 billion MRO spend (10$1.1 billion MRO spend (10thth overall)overall)•• Limited organic capability focused on O&I Limited organic capability focused on O&I

level maintenancelevel maintenance•• Favored approach to MRO is partnership Favored approach to MRO is partnership

with domestic OEMs or MROswith domestic OEMs or MROs–– AgustaWestlandAgustaWestland–– AleniaAlenia–– AvioAvio–– AeronavaliAeronavali

•• Little evidence of interest in or Little evidence of interest in or implementation of PBL of PFI programsimplementation of PBL of PFI programs

•• New programsNew programs–– EurofighterEurofighter–– FF--3535

•• Have worked closely with US Military in Have worked closely with US Military in the pastthe past

–– Pilot trainingPilot training–– Even leasing of 34 FEven leasing of 34 F--16s16s

ITALYITALY



Current State Of PBL

AgendaAgenda

The Military MRO Market

Key IssuesKey Issues


Motivation For Using PBL Contracts Varies With Motivation For Using PBL Contracts Varies With Mission And MaturityMission And Maturity

TacticalTacticalFightersFighters

StrategicStrategicTransportTransport

TrainersTrainersTankersTankers

OldOld NewNew

UK TornadoUK Tornado

UK CUK C--130B130B--HHHawkHawk

FF--2222JSFJSF

Eurofighter TLSEurofighter TLS

UK TankerUK TankerCC--1717

CC--130J HIOS130J HIOSNHNH--9090

TrainersTrainers

RiskRisk

LowLow

MediumMedium

HighHigh

•• Upper right Upper right –– new tactical new tactical aircraft and PBLs aircraft and PBLs -- high riskhigh risk

–– Operational risk Operational risk –– Uncertain performance Uncertain performance

characteristicscharacteristics–– Limited industrial baseLimited industrial base–– Avoiding infrastructure Avoiding infrastructure

development is a key development is a key motivation for customersmotivation for customers

–– Favor OEMsFavor OEMs•• Left half of the matrix are Left half of the matrix are

sunset aircraftsunset aircraft–– Known operational Known operational

performance and performance and component reliabilitycomponent reliability

–– Developed industrial baseDeveloped industrial base–– Desire to free up organic Desire to free up organic

capacitycapacity•• PBLs favorable for those in PBLs favorable for those in

the lower right of the medium the lower right of the medium risk bandrisk band

•• Limited examples of PBL in Limited examples of PBL in the upper left quadrantthe upper left quadrant

MaturityMaturity

Mis

sion

Mis

sion

The Overarching Motivation Is Alignment Of IncentivesThe Overarching Motivation Is Alignment Of Incentives

Source: AeroStrategy

222007 Military MRO Conference & ExhibitionAeroStrategy © 2007 AeroStrategy

The Level Of PBL Contracts The Level Of PBL Contracts –– Platform Versus System Or Platform Versus System Or Component Level Component Level –– Is The Source Of Much DebateIs The Source Of Much Debate

PBL Contract TypesPBL Contract Types

Component LevelComponent Level

Systems Level Systems Level (e.g. (e.g. –– Avionics, electrical Avionics, electrical

system, or propulsion system, or propulsion system)system)

Platform Level Platform Level (e.g. (e.g. –– CC--17, F17, F--22 or NH22 or NH--90)90)

2004 GAO Report noted limited use of Platform Level PBLs in private industry and recommended a focus on component or subsystem PBLs


232007 Military MRO Conference & ExhibitionAeroStrategy © 2007 AeroStrategy

The Aircraft Life Cycle Provides One Framework To The Aircraft Life Cycle Provides One Framework To Consider The Appropriate PBL StructureConsider The Appropriate PBL Structure

FleetFleet

TimeTime

GrowthGrowth

•• Limited repair capability / Limited repair capability / capacitycapacity

•• Lack deep understanding of Lack deep understanding of operational performanceoperational performance

•• Generally favors platform Generally favors platform level PBLs level PBLs –– often with the often with the Prime / OEMPrime / OEM

MatureMature

•• Costs and risks are Costs and risks are well understoodwell understood

•• Repair capabilities Repair capabilities developeddeveloped

•• Potentially Potentially opportunity to unopportunity to un--bundle for cost bundle for cost effectivenesseffectiveness

SunsetSunset

•• OEMs often losing interest OEMs often losing interest as fleet declinesas fleet declines

•• Two possible extremesTwo possible extremes–– Unbundle completelyUnbundle completely–– Or, rebundle for platform Or, rebundle for platform

level (e.g. UK HIOS and level (e.g. UK HIOS and Canadian CCanadian C--130 Support)130 Support)

Aircraft Life CycleAircraft Life Cycle


The UK Transformation Staircase Illustrates The Step Beyond The UK Transformation Staircase Illustrates The Step Beyond PBL PBL –– Contracting For Capability, Typically Via PFIContracting For Capability, Typically Via PFI

TraditionalTraditional

SparesSparesInclusiveInclusive

ContractingContractingForFor

AvailabilityAvailability

ContractingContractingForFor

CapabilityCapability

Source: UK MoD

DE&SDE&S

ProviderProvider DeciderDecider

UK Support Transformation StaircaseSu

pplie

rSu

pplie

rIncreasedIncreased

InvolvementInvolvement

Contracting for availability:Contracting for availability:Supplier responsible for delivering platforms and equipment to agreed performance and output standards

Contracting for capability:Contracting for capability:Supplier responsible for providing a capability (e.g. Air to Air Refueling) and outputs to agreed performance standards

DE&S = Defense Equipment & Support, the UK organization responsible for managing acquisition and support

25AeroStrategy© 2007 AeroStrategy

The Pros And Cons Of PBL / PFI Are Still Being DebatedThe Pros And Cons Of PBL / PFI Are Still Being Debated

•• Predicable costPredicable cost

•• Increased Increased availabilityavailability

•• Aligned Aligned incentivesincentives

•• Reduced CAPEXReduced CAPEX

•• Lower MRO costsLower MRO costs

•• Reduced flexibilityReduced flexibility

•• Performance risk and associated Performance risk and associated costcost

•• Lack of familiarityLack of familiarity

•• Time to contractTime to contract

•• Misaligned objectives / Misaligned objectives / unintended resultsunintended results

PBL Tradeoffs – Pros Seem To Be Winning


PROSCONS

26AeroStrategy© 2007 AeroStrategy

Key MessagesKey Messages•• Over 39,000 military aircraft generate Over 39,000 military aircraft generate

$60.7 billion in MRO activity in 2008$60.7 billion in MRO activity in 2008•• Reconstitution / Recap has a noticeable Reconstitution / Recap has a noticeable

impact on the marketimpact on the market•• Military MRO will grow to almost $65B by Military MRO will grow to almost $65B by

2018 despite a shrinking fleet2018 despite a shrinking fleet•• The countries examined resist simple The countries examined resist simple

generalization generalization →→ suggesting there is no suggesting there is no ““oneone--size fits allsize fits all”” solution. A complex solution. A complex set of factors govern a countryset of factors govern a country’’s s progress along the contracting progress along the contracting continuumcontinuum

•• Several issues must be considered when Several issues must be considered when evaluating a support strategyevaluating a support strategy

–– Platform maturityPlatform maturity–– MissionMission–– Level of contracting (Platform vs. System)Level of contracting (Platform vs. System)–– Pros and cons of contracting for Capability Pros and cons of contracting for Capability

/ PFI/ PFI



Thanks For Your Attention!

www.AeroStrategy.com

To learn more about AeroStrategy please contact:US OfficeKevin Michaels, Principal Hal Chrisman, PrincipalPh: +1 (734) 821-0220 Ph: +1 (734) [email protected] [email protected]

UK OfficeDavid Stewart, PrincipalPh: +44 (1494) [email protected]

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