Outlook for Meat

Bruce Bowen

Manager, Agriculture & Food

ABARES

Share of livestock production

Farm dependence on livestock

56%

47%

27%

33%

47%54%

55%

Sheep flockSheep numbers

Million

Proportion of ewes in flock

%

Lamb exports

ktChina

US

Other

Sheep meat prices

mutton

lamb

2010-11 c/kg cwt

Cattle slaughter & pricesSlaughter

‘000 head

Saleyard price (right axis)

2010-11

c/kg cwt

Beef exports

kt

Japan

US

Korea

Other

Japanese beef imports

Australia

Other

US

kt

Proportion of beef cattle sold for live export northern Australia, 2009-10

Poultry and pig meat

Medium term outlook

• Lower feed grain prices

• Per person consumption of poultry to increase

• Pig meat import growth to slow

Summary of outlook

• 2011-12: – Saleyard lamb price: ▲ 4%– Saleyard cattle price: ▲ 5%

• 2015-16

• Sheep flock ▲ 73 million

• Cattle herd ▲ 28.7million