Outline of Presentation - planning.org.nz File&Folder_id=185&File=P… · Planning Everywhere on...
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Ideas on the PROCESS of Transition
to Sustainable Patterns of Living
NZPI PIA Conference Christchurch April 2010
Peter Walsh FPIAPeter Walsh FPIA
Walsh Consulting, Sydney
Outline of PresentationOutline of Presentation The Planning Dilemma The Planning Dilemma
a Thumbnail sketch from a journeyman planner
Wi k d Ti Wicked Times Are solutions just an impossible dream?
Planning Response A Conceptual Framework
Creating Spaces for positive change “Transition Management” theory and practice
Some Examples including reflections on planners role
Planning Everywhere on the Mainstream AgendaMainstream Agenda
Typically characterised by Shock/horror (for short attention span)( )
Blame game
Bureaucracy-bashingBureaucracy bashing
“Wicked” ProblemsWicked Problems
Not so easy as Shock Jocks Might Think
Example Urban containment goal Urban containment goal
How to accommodate huge unmet housing demanddemand ○ Australia-wide shortage 430,000dw by 2028 under
medium projectionsmedium projections
Numerous others
“Wicked” ProblemsWicked Problems Urban containment just one example Urban containment just one example
Wicked problems Wicked problems Ambiguous or hard to define problem definition
Multi dimension inter related causal factors involving multiple agency Multi-dimension inter-related causal factors, involving multiple agency and public/private sector responses
Wide disagreement on best ways forwardWide disagreement on best ways forward
Social complexity (rather than technical complexity), and the associated coordination requirements, overwhelms normal problem solving
happroaches
Solutions usually involve changing the behaviour of individual citizens, who are inclined to put their own interests above that of the widerwho are inclined to put their own interests above that of the wider community.
Ob it id i d fl h lth• Obesity epidemic and flow-on health effects
“compact” but “liveable” city
Existing public transport inadequate
New impossible to fund
Traffic gridlock Traffic gridlock
Huge issue for how we plan for land use
Source: uk times 1/4/10
Energy efficient housing
Source: the Economist cover
Is there a real problem?Taking into account a wide view
Wicked Problems often harm the mostWicked Problems – often harm the most vulnerable first.
Useful as a construct– these are super complex problems
And It seems time is running out
Is there a real problem? View from Suburbia
Not much of a one in the public eye in the middle suburbs of our cities?middle suburbs of our cities?
SE A i d th ti t l bl t li tSE Asia and other poor nations most vulnerable to climate change
Crop yields could drop up to 30% in SE Asia b idby mid 21C
Source: WorldBank.org
Sea-level rise will exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards.
Mortality due to diarrhea primarily associated with flood and droughts will rise in South Asia
Source: WorldBank.org
Is there a problemIs there a problem
IPCC Most of the observed increase in temperatures is
“very likely” (>90% confidence) due to human sourced GHG emissions.
Thi i f j lik l ” ( 66%) i h TAR This is up from just likely” (>66%) with TAR.
How do our nations fit into this.
League Table CO2League Table CO2tonnes/person/yr
(1) Australia 20 6(1) Australia 20.6
(2) USA 19.8
(3) Canada 18.8
(42) China 4 5(42) China 4.5
India 1.2
Source: Maplecroft - http://maplecroft.com
Motorised Transport Share –pPassenger KilometresTransport 13.2% of our GHG Emissionsp
Source: BTRE 2008 and SoAC Report
Problems and ScepticismProblems and ScepticismGeneral Peter Cosgrove (Boyer Lectures 2009):
To me the science on either side of the debate resembles the sort of military intelligence I have been considering over the long decades of my military service: fact-based but leading from there with a series of assumptions to a future scenario …
We are left with a preponderance of scientific opinion pointing to dire outcomes and presently a minority who might be called 'climate change sceptics‘…
I am very uneasy about dicing with their future. I am very conscious of the huge change in direction and the expense and the turmoil and the impact on jobs, entailed in a radical move to non-carbon energy for Australia.
But if we don't do it, a country with our values, a country presently in the top 20 wealthiest countries in the world, a country depended on by millions of people who are our powerless friends and neighbours, how can we expect other nations to act and thus offset our lack of actionand thus offset our lack of action.
So let's not muck about any more, let's start now to solve the problems that we own.
2009 Boyer Lectures Lecture 6: Australia's Future: Paying it Forward http://www.abc.net.au/rn/boyerlectures/stories/2009/2725189.htm#transcript
Thinking About Ways ForwardThinking About Ways Forward
3 Horizons Thinking 3-Horizons Thinking (Newton, 2008)
Source: Newton, 2009.
Source: Newton, 2009.
“Transition Management” Concept
Concerned with the actually delivery process Wide Northern European interest Wide Northern European interest Dutch Research Institute for Transition et al Evidence on how transformational change occurred
historically and what can you bring forward fromhistorically and what can you bring forward from public policy science
We work in a very complex chaotic hard to control system
Cant rely on government to implement changey g p g Need “space” for progressive minded people to
work on solutions
Complex SystemsComplex Systems S i t l d i id d Societal dynamics are considered as
chaotic, complex and now are impossible to manage in the traditional sense ofto manage in the traditional sense of command and control
Individuals might reflect on systemic problems but are limited for knowledge in achieving transformational innovationsachieving transformational innovations
Societal change does occur based on Societal change does occur based on interaction between actors at all levels within the changing landscape.
“Transition Management” Transition Management Concept
“Transition Arena” (Loorbach, 2007)
Complex systems approach
Create Space for “joint problem perception and p p pstructuring”
Transition Vision and Shared Guiding Principles
Use the “Diffusion of Power” - as an Advantage
To date “shock/horror”, NIMBY attitudes seem to rule Scandel avoidance capitalise on short term media interest
P i f lk d l ( t t d) Progressive folk need equal (protected) space to deepen and exchange knowledge and plan some actionsand plan some actions Murray Darling Basin Authority comparisons?
“Transition Arena” (Loorbach, 2007)
Complex systems approach
Create Space for “joint problem perception and structuring”g
Transition Vision and Shared Guiding PrinciplesGuiding Principles
Agendas and Pathways CreatedCreated
Expansion of Network and C
Approach already operational in Europe on health, energy,
Wider Communication
Experiments and Actions
social housing, accessibility issues
Experiments and Actions
Learning and Monitoring
Widening Engagement – breeds reflection, tech innovation better design and behaviour change:innovation, better design and behaviour change:
rather than just blame
Some TargetsItem Problems/Themes Thought Starters/ReferencesHub and corridor redevelopment, sustainable transport, and betterment tax
Practicalities of funding stream for public transit through increased real property value at hub and corridor offsets costs of public
“Negotiating for “Planning gain” principles in UKRewarding great architecture urban designp
transitDelightful parks, pedestrain spaces
g g gSoftening of politically correct controls
Housing densification, improved transit, parking restrictions rather than
Parking congestion, inconvenience vs, safe/acti e streetscapes transport and
Comparing density that work and projects that don’t (Ultimo S dne s Arb t s Walkparking restrictions rather than
requirementssafe/active streetscapes, transport and cycling
that don’t (Ultimo, Sydney vs Arbutus Walk Vancouver)
Revising standards which prevent low cost or energy efficient buildings
Technological, regulatory and financing barriers
Involve young people, “hard to house”, those suffering mental illness “ultracost or energy efficient buildings
Helping kids live close to/in family homes
barriers.“Mansion or no house”.
those suffering mental illness. ultra compact house”, Why lifts after 3 storeys
Employment close to where people live.Attracting jobs to existing centres/teleworking
Low accessibility in the outer suburbs of many Australian cities coincides with low-incomehouseholds. Known problem in developed countries. VAMPIRE
Link to corporate social responsibility.You get people in the room who can take it in
What really matters when redeveloping existing precincts to accommodate the new
Compact cities at odds with heritage and vegetation protection controls –urban design solutions
Keating: on “heritage mafia”Murcutt: our stifling “culture of mediocrity”
Ensuring the community, rather than vocal self-interest groups, lead government strategic plans
Connecting people up with facts. Using evidence and integrated data to inform policy.
Involving young people. City Talks (eg Sydney City, Warringah, Vancouver).
How Communities of Practice:
UK IDEA etc as frontrunnersUK IDEA etc as frontrunners PIA groups change to problem/outcome orientation rather than issue
based?
/ Local/Regional Projects Space for already progressive projects to blossom and grow Projects in response to empowered self-interest groups Best practice knowledge sharing projects Media generated projects – eg SMH transport inquiry
National Level Projects National Level Projects Murray Darling Basin, already happening Major cities unit
Involve current “frontrunners”, influential progressive thinkers, educators Inspirational corporate / community leaders senior public servantsInspirational corporate / community leaders, senior public servants,
school principals, actuaries, engineers, the younger, entrepreneurs, financiers, academics
ConclusionConclusion We Planners think we’re good at listening analysis We Planners think we re good at listening, analysis,
reflection, development of cogent answers to the big problems – frankly we’ve got little else to offer
The big challenge now is climate change mitigation
Many of us think there are also many other “secondary Many of us think there are also many other secondary gains” with good climate change response.
We have had a dilemma in understanding the link We have had a dilemma in understanding the link between problem definition and response.
The response includes behaviour change The response includes behaviour change
The transition management approach presents a working methodology with logic and practicalitymethodology with logic and practicality
MIT Roulette WheelMIT Roulette Wheel
Conclusion We Planners think we’re good at listening, analysis, reflection,
development of cogent answers to the big problems – frankly we’ve got little else to offerwe ve got little else to offer
The big problem now is climate change
Many of us think there are also many other “secondary gains” with good climate change response.
We have had a dilemma in understanding the link between problem definition and response.
The response includes behaviour change – not an easy ask
The transition management approach gives us a discipline and The transition management approach gives us a discipline and some structure and rigour.
Communities of Practice – but not just transport planners, or social planner or heritage planning groups – which rarely want to be boxed in anyway and if they do then the silo problem arises – more focused on integrated problem solving.