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Outline Context Indias Concerns Status of Knowledge Studies in Initial NATCOM Features and...
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Transcript of Outline Context Indias Concerns Status of Knowledge Studies in Initial NATCOM Features and...
Outline
Context
India’s Concerns
Status of Knowledge
Studies in Initial NATCOM
Features and Limitations
Approaches for Second NATCOM
Approach to Mainstreaming V&A
Context and Concerns
NATCOM is a reporting obligation under Article 12 of the UNFCCC
Current understanding indicates that adverse impacts of climate change will be on
Water resources
Agriculture - food security
Natural ecosystems such as forests
Coastal zones
Human health
and
Consequent impact on economic development
The Setting India is a vast country (3.28 million sq km)
Human population of > 1000 million and livestock population of 475 million
Diverse physiographic features - Himalayas, Coastal areas, northern plains, peninsular plateau and islands
Occupies 2.4% of the worlds land area but support 16.2% of the worlds human population
Dominating feature of climate is the Monsoon
Endowed with varied soils, climate, biodiversity and ecological regions
Agriculture is less than 25% of GDP and supports 650 million people
Coal is the dominant source of energy (47% of total commercial energy)
Under such diverse natural conditions, a billion people speaking different languages, following different religions, inhabiting in rural and urban areas live in harmony under a democratic system
Status of Current Knowledge
•Fragmentary
•High degree of uncertainty with all impact projections
•Uncertainties arise because of
-Limited understanding of many critical processes in the climate system
-Existence of multiple climatic and non-climatic stresses
-regional scale variations and non-linearities
-Future itself is not easy to predict with confidence
Spatial patterns of projected seasonal surface air temperature change (°C) by HadRM2 for 2050s relative to 1990s, under transient increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. (SRES A2 & B2)
Temperature and Precipitation Projections in 2050s
Spatial patterns of projected seasonal precipitation change (mm) by HadRM2 for 2050s relative to 1990s, under transient increase of greenhouse gas concentrations (SRES A2 & B2)
Seasonal Temperature projections Seasonal Precipitation projections
Water resources: An Overview
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Mahanadi
Bra
hm
ani
Ganga
Godavari
Cauvery
Narm
ada
Tapi
Krishna
Pennar
Mahi
Luni
Sabarm
ati
River Basins
Ch
an
ge f
rom
cu
rren
t to
fu
ture
%
Rainfall Runoff ET
Acute physical water scarce conditionsConstant water scarcities and shortageSeasonal / regular stressed conditionsRare water shortages
Change (%) in water balance for Control and GHG climate scenarios
General decrease in rice yield with increase in temperature
Iso-yield line of wheat shift northwards and reduces in area
Eastern regions projected to be most impacted by temperature increase & reduced radiation, resulting in fewer grain yield and shorter grain filling duration
In Northern India, the potential reduction in yields will be offset by higher radiation, lessening the impacts of climate change
Addition CO2 may benefit crops but will be nullified by increase in temperature
Agriculture: An Overview
2.5t/ha (Control)
4.5/ha (Climate Change)
4.5t/ha (Control)
2.5/ha (Climate Change)
Coastal Zones: An Overview
Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR
Hazard based analysis of impacts of cyclones on districts indicates Jagatsinghpur in Orissa to be the most vulnerable
Forestry : An overview
Expected biome types under climate projections in 2050.
Present Biome Types
Dry savannah
Xeric Shrub land
Xeric woodland
Tropical Seasonal Forest
Boreal Evergreen
Tundra
Forest types are likely to shift
Xeric Shrubland and Xeric woodlands are likely to be the dominant species under enhanced temperature situations
ROURK ELA
MANDL A
CHENN AI
CARNIC OBAR
SONAP UR
KHEDA
HARDWAR HALDWANI
SHAHJA HANPUR
ALLAHA BAD
T W O p e n fo r m o nths
4-6
7-9
10-12
N.A
CARNIC OBAR
4-6
7-9
10-12
N.A
T W O p e n fo r m o nths
(a) (b)
Transmission windows of malaria in different states of India (a) in 2000 and (b) in 2080
Health: An Overview
Malaria may penetrate elevations above 1800 meters and some coastal areas.
10% more states may offer climatic opportunities for malaria vector breeding throughout the year with respect to the year 2000
Vulnerability and Adaptation in NATCOM-1
Features / Limitations – NATCOM 1
Impacts and Vulnerability Studies
• Impact assessment is made using climate change projections based on a single model outputs (RCM Had RM2) and single scenario
• Uncertainty in projections of climate parameters at regional level
• Limitations of models in assessing sectoral impacts at regional level (forests, crop production, water)
Features / Limitations – NATCOM 1
Adaptation • Preliminary assessments made for different sectors;
including assessment of current policies and programmes in relation to vulnerability
• Further analysis needed to identify adaptation technologies, measures, institutions, financial needs
Constrained by• Limited data availability• Limited time (<12 months) and resources
HencePRELIMINARY ASSESSMENTS
Need for improving future V&A studies
• Need for improved and reliable regional climate models and climate projections for impact assessment
• Need for improved climate change impact or response models - Sectoral, Regional, & Integrated
• Appropriate data generation for modeling• Assessment of impacts at regional level & identification of
vulnerable regions, socio-economic systems• Development of adaptation strategies and a framework of
Adaptation• Networking of institutions, capacity building, sustained
research teams• Financial and institutional support needed
Proposed Approach for the Second National Communication
The scope of work in SNC contemplates
Generation of climate change scenarios derived from the recent generation of regional or global climate models (HadRM3, PRECIS, and other AOGCMs) and mapping of climatically vulnerable regions.
Development of socio economic scenarios at national level, analogous to the relevant SRES scenarios capturing India’s
developmental path.
Improvement of the impact assessments of climate change on water resources, agriculture, forestry, natural ecosystems,
coastal zones, human health, energy and infrastructure carried out in INC.
Contd.
Development of integrated vulnerability frameworks and adaptation options (and hence adaptation frameworks) to establish linkages between
socio economic scenarios and water resources and agriculture productivity and hence food security;
human health associated with climate change and the changing profile of extreme events;
vulnerabilities due to the impacts on forests and other natural ecosystem products;
sea level rise and vulnerabilities of a coastal zone
an assessment of the vulnerabilities of energy systems and infrastructure
Approaches in Second National Communication
Integrated Vulnerability Assessment
In order to develop the integrated frameworks, case studies will be carried out in the identified hotspots to
Assess the associated physical and socio-economic vulnerabilities;
Aanalyse the current coping mechanisms operational at the local level (indigenous strategies / policies and programmes / institutional mechanisms /technological options and risk sharing measures) to combat climate variability;
Identify the incremental measures required to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change and
Develop adaptation frameworks for these case studies) that will provide inputs for the development of national framework for adaptation, and hence help devise adaptation strategies through linkages to the Adaptation Learning Mechanism
Socio-Economic Scenarios
Climate Change & Variability
Water
Food security
Agriculture
Livelihood
Livelihood Health
Coastal Zones Livelihood
Infrastructure
Forests
Livelihood
Natural Ecosystems
Water & Climate
Integrated Vulnerability Assessment – A Conceptual Framework
Key Tasks for Addressing Vulnerability and Adaptation Needs
Geographic Hierarchy
Strategies
Local National Regional/ Global
Capacity Building Monitoring, observation Awareness/assessment at state/ district/ community levels
Scientific assessment, measurement, models, national research agenda
Participation in global/ regional modeling and assessments
Knowledge/Information
Locale specific databases, scenarios and assessment, local monitoring networks
Research networks, National databases (e.g. NATCOM), scientific and policy models, national scenarios, technology inventory
Interface with IPCC assessments, interfacing with regional/global databases, scenarios and assessments, technology inventory database
Continued…
Key tasks for addressing vulnerability and adaptation needs
Geographic Hierarchy
Strategies
Local National Regional/ Global
Institutions/ Partnerships
Community initiatives, Early warning networks
Stakeholders networks, public/ private programs
FCCC processes, trans-boundary impacts assessment
Policy/ Instruments Local specific adaptation plans, community based adaptation programs
Science-policy linkage, economic instruments (e.g. insurance, R&D funds), integration with national development/ planning process
Adaptation funds, trans-boundary regulations
Continued…
Key tasks for addressing vulnerability and adaptation needs
Geographic Hierarchy
Strategies
Local National Regional/ Global
Technology Locale specific technology adaptation
Targeted R&D, Technology transfer protocols, demonstration/ pilot projects
Scientific exchange, technology transfer
Approach to Mainstreaming V&A in NATCOM
A broad based Participatory approach involving concerned stakeholders through
• Focused thematic training workshops for enhancing the assessment capacities of researchers;
• Inter-sectoral workshops to facilitate integration of the assessments;
• Conduct workshops to sensitise the policymakers, media, and NGOs about the outputs of the assessments;
• Disseminate results amongst the general public using web-based and print media
• Establish synergies with other ongoing V&A projects
Natcom Web site
NATCOM Web site
A website has been created and it houses information on all the activities carried out under the aegis of NATCOM including information on NATCOM network,events organized, presentations, publications and related web links and now the national communication
www.natcomindia.org
BROCHURES BOOKS