Our Recreation SystemYesterday, Today, Tomorrow

Discussion Flow

Our Changing Demographics and

Economy

Predicting Recreation Needs

in the Future

Designing the Future of

Recreation

Change at the Practitioner Level

Our Changing Demographics and Economy

Recreation in the 1960’s

• Development of the provincial training program for recreation directors leading toward the Kelsey Recreation Diploma Program in 1969

• First operator courses for arenas and swimming pools

• 68 municipal recreation authorities and 11 recreation directors (1964)

• By 1972 – 505 authorities with 56 recreation directors

• By 1979 – 744 authorities with 80 recreation directors

Our Population

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200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Saskatchewan Census Population 1901 to 2016

1968960,000

20191,169,131

20341,273,127

Age Distribution

0 to 4 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years and over

Population Pyramid Province 1966

Male Female

In 1966, the vast majority of Saskatchewan’s population was between 5 and 24 years old

Age Distribution

0 to 4 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years and over

Population Pyramid Province 2016

Male Female

In 2016, the age distribution has leveled out Younger cohorts are now typically

international in-migrants and Indigenous

International In-migration

In 2009, immigration has outstripped natural increase as the leading contributor of growth

Since 2016, immigration has more than doubled natural growth

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Sources of Population Growth - Saskatchewan -2002 to 2018

Natural Increase Immigrants Net interprovincial migration Emigrants

International In-migration

In 2009, immigration has outstripped natural increase as the leading contributor of growth

Since 2016, immigration has more than doubled natural growth

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Sources of Population Growth - Saskatchewan -2002 to 2018

Natural Increase Immigrants Net interprovincial migration Emigrants

Ethnicity

In 1971, those of European descent accounted for 89% of the population. This dropped to 69% in 2016.

At the same time, the percent of the population of Asian and Indigenous heritage advanced from 0.8% and 4% to 9% and 16%, respectively.

822,515

7,460

40,55055,715

Ethnic Breakdown 1971

European Asian

Indigenous Africa

Central and South America Carribean

Unknown/Other

759,08099,125

177,355

16,170

6,6953,810 36,117

Ethnic Breakdown 2016

European Asian

Indigenous Africa

Central and South America Carribean

Unknown/Other

Urban Rural Split

In 1966, those living in Saskatchewan’s 11 cities accounted for 39.5% of the province’s population while the rest (rural) accounted for 60.5%.

In 2016, this proportion had completely reversed itself with 56.2% in urban areas and 43.8% in rural areas.

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10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

1966 2016

Urban Rural Distribution 1966 vs 2016

Urban Rural

Urban Rural Split

When considering the immediate surrounding communities or Census Metropolitan Areas (CMA), the concentration of population in Saskatchewan’s 2 major cities is even more stark with almost half of the province living in its 2 major metropolitan areas.

Population 2016 Census

Saskatoon CMA 295,095 Regina CMA 236,481 Saskatchewan 1,098,352 Regina/Saskatoon % of Total 48.4%

Urban Rural Split

In 1976, there were 96,600 employed in agriculture or 25% of the province’s workforce.

By 2018, this had dropped to 37,200 or 7% of the province’s employed labour force.

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Agricultural Employment 1976 to 2018 Saskatchewan (000s)

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Agricultural Employment 1976 to 2018 Saskatchewan % of Total

Employment by Industry

In short, Saskatchewan has a much more diversified economy now than it did 40 to 50 years ago with healthier resource and service sectors.

25.3%

0.2%

2.0%

0.8%6.7%

5.7%

3.3%

10.6%

4.9%2.6%

1.1%2.1%

0.9%

6.6%

8.2%

3.8%

3.9%

4.6%

6.8%

% Distribution of Employment 1976

Agriculture Forestry and logging and support activities for forestry

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction Utilities

Construction Manufacturing

Wholesale trade Retail trade

Transportation and warehousing Finance and insurance

Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific and technical services

Business, building and other support services Educational services

Health care and social assistance Information, culture and recreation

Accommodation and food services Other services (except public administration)

Public administration

8.7%

0.1%4.2%

0.8%

6.4%

6.2%

3.9%

12.6%

5.0%3.8%1.5%4.1%

2.3%

8.0%

12.4%

3.9%

6.2%

4.4%5.5%

% Distribution of Employment 2018

Agriculture Forestry and logging and support activities for forestry

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction Utilities

Construction Manufacturing

Wholesale trade Retail trade

Transportation and warehousing Finance and insurance

Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific and technical services

Business, building and other support services Educational services

Health care and social assistance Information, culture and recreation

Accommodation and food services Other services (except public administration)

Public administration

Looking Ahead

By 2045, Saskatchewan’s population will be visibly different than today

Population 2016 2045 Percent of Total 2016 Percent of Total 2045

European 759,080 580,652 69% 42% Immigrant 125,800 570,681 11% 41% Indigenous 177,355 228,627 16% 17% Unknown/Other 36,117 0 Total 1,098,352 1,379,960

Looking Ahead

In 2045, Saskatoon and Regina will account for 62% of the province’s population with the rural population dropping to 26%.

2016 2045 Percent of Total 2016 Percent of Total 2045

Saskatoon CMA 295,095 490,880 27% 36% Regina CMA 236,481 365,629 22% 26% Other Cities 155,758 169,983 14% 12% Rural 411,018 353,469 37% 26% Total 1,098,352 1,379,960

Additional Socio-Economic Trends

What other trends are forcing change?

Predicting the Next 25 Years in Recreation

Predicting 25 Years Out

Table Discussion…

• What will be the leisure needs of individuals and communities?

• Will the recreation sector be positioned to deliver on these needs? Why or why not?

Designing the Future

Designing the Future

Table Discussion…

• What primary changes are needed to ensure the recreation sector can respond to changes in our communities? How do we ensure that we remain relevant to our customers?

• Summarize your thoughts into three clear recommendations.

Change at the Practitioner Level

Change at the Practitioner Level

Graffiti Wall Exercise…

• Has this conversation impacted you as a recreation professional and the way you will practice in the future?

• If so, what will you do differently as a recreation practitioner to meet the needs of the future?

Conclusion

Any final questions or points of discussion?

Sources: Saskatchewan Bureau of Statistics,

Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada,

Praxis Consulting