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Our National Energy Picture:Our National Energy Picture: A Path to Marine
Renewable EnergyRenewable Energy
Bob Thresher, PhD, PENREL Research FellowNREL Research Fellow
A Workshop on Renewable Ocean Energy & the MarineOcean Energy & the Marine
Environment
Hosted by Southeast National Marine Renewable Energy CenterFlorida Atlantic University
P l B h Fl id
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC
Palm Beach, Florida3-5 November 2010
World Primary Energy Demand is Growing
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Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
Affluence Requires Energy –Poverty Breeds Global InsecurityPoverty Breeds Global Insecurity
100
on) Affluence
Japan
10
000/
pers
o
United Kingdom
South Korea
United StatesFranceJapan
1Cap
ita ($
0
Mexico Poland
El Salvador Russia
1
GD
P Pe
r C
Poverty Bangladesh
China
0.10.1 1 10 100 1000
G Burkina Fasog
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Energy Consumption Per Capita ('000 BTU/person)Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2000 Tables E1, B1, B2; Gross Domestic Product per capita is for 2000 in 1995 dollars. Updated May 2002
The U.S. Energy Picture 1850-2008120
100
120
Non-hydro Renewables
80
BTU
sTW
h)
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables
40
60
drilli
on B
uad
= 29
3T
Natural Gas
Hydro
20
40
Qua
d(1
Qu
Crude Oil
01850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Coal
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Source: 1850-1949, Energy Perspectives: A Presentation of Major Energy and Energy-Related Data, U.S. Department of the Interior, 1975; 1950-1996, Annual Energy Review 1996, Table 1.3. Note: Between 1950 and 1990, there was no reporting of non-utility use of renewables. 1997-2008, Annual Energy Review 2008, Table F1b.
Renewable Energy Usage in the United States is 8%
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Source: IEA 2009
Concentration of Greenhouse Gases is Increasing
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Source: IPCC Report 2007b
Will the Climate Stabilize and at What Level?
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Source: IPCC 2007b
Simulations of vegetation response by 2070-2099 to differentclimate change models (U.S. Forest Service 2004)
Current Climate
Hadley Climate Model Canadian Climate Centre Model
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Global Climate Change and Wildlife in North America – IPCC(2001) The Wildlife Society Technical Review 04-2 2004.
Possible Climate Change Impacts by 2100Possible change (%)
Gross Net
Possible changes in percentages of breeding Neotroptical migrant species in the next 100 years (Price and Root 2001).
California -29 -6Eastern Midwest -57 -30Great Lakes -53 -29Great Plains – Central -44 -8Great Plains – Northern -44 -10Great Plains – Southern -32 -14Mid-Atlantic -45 -23New England -44 -15Pacific Northwest -32 -16Rocky Mountains -39 -10Southeast -37 -22Southwest -29 -4
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Southwest 29 4
Global Climate Change and Wildlife in North America. The Wildlife Society Technical Review 04-2 2004.
Electric Potential for U.S. Extractable Ocean RE Resource is Significant
2500
U.S. Electricity Usage is ~ 4000TWh/year
1500
2000
2500s/
year
1000
1500
raw
att-
hrs
0
500Te
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 7)
Offshore Wind 60m-900m (1)
Offshore Wind 30m-60m (2)
hore Wind < 30m shallow (3)
Wave Energy (4)
Tidal and Stream (5)
Ocean Current (6
)
rmal Energy Conversion (7)
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Off OOffshor
Ocean Therm
Source: Thresher & Musial, Oceanography Magazine, June 2010
The Vision for the U.S. Marine Energy Roadmap
• To establish a commercially viable marine renewable energy industry that is supplied by a robust U.S. manufacturing chain generating d ti j b th t t l l l i fi ld ith thdomestic jobs that can compete on a level playing field with other energy sources to serve both domestic and international marketplaces in 2030.
• To deploy a total of 20 GW of combined marine renewable energy capacity in an economically, environmentally, and socially
ibl b 2030responsible manner by 2030.
• To realize this vision, the MHK industry needs support to perfect the technology through R&D, financial incentives for early stage deployment, and siting and permitting requirements that are both timely and affordable.
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Commercial Strategy & Deployment Scenario
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Testing Facilities and Centers
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The Roadmaps Scope of Environmental Studies
– Benthic Surveys• Benthic organisms (Plants, algae, invertebrates, and fish)• Bottom geology (sediment rocks etc)Bottom geology (sediment, rocks, etc)• Scour protection
– Water Column Surveys• Fish• Habitat• Mammals• Birds
I t b t• Invertebrates• Turtles• Noise• EMF• EMF
– Water Quality Surveys• Chemical • Sediment Transport
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p
Ocean Renewable Energy Coalition
Marine Renewable Technologies in Development
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Source: IEA – OES Report Global Technology Status 2009
Marine Renewable Technology Maturity
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Source: IEA – OES Report Global Technology Status 2009
DOE Hydrokinetic Technology Readiness Levels
Concept DesignDOE TRL 1‐3 Discovery / Concept
/Definition / Early Stage Development, Design
and Engineering
Part‐Scale (Tank) ( )DOE TRL 4 Proof of Concept
Part‐Scale (Tank/Sea)DOE TRL 5/6DOE TRL 5/6
System Integration and Laboratory Demonstration
Near to Full ScaleDOE TRL 7/8:DOE TRL 7/8:
Open Water System Testing, Demonstration, and Operation
Pre‐CommercialDOE TRL 9:
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Array TestingCommercialDOE TRL 10:
An EU Story Demonstrating How Ocean Testing Drives Innovation
Y L M F t b D i !
24m/MW Innovation
You Learn More Faster by Doing!st
24m/MW
2 Years of Ocean Testing & Redesign
Innovation
Cap
ital C
o IncrementalEvolution
Dev
ice
C
7m/MW DesignRefinement
3m/MWGoal1.6m/MW
Production Learning
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Prototype Units Built & Open Sea Tested1 2 4 nth
The EU Suite of Protocols for Developing Marine Renewables
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Source: EquiMar at http://www.equimar.org/
IEA Ocean Energy Development Protocols
1.1 Generic and site related wave data
1.2 Guidance for assessing tidal current energy resource
2.1 Wave energy development protocolprotocol
2.2 Tidal energy development protocol
3 1 Preliminary wave energy3.1 Preliminary wave energy device performance protocol
3.2 Preliminary tidal energy device performance protocolp p
3.3 Guidelines for design basis of marine energy converters
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http://www.iea-oceans.org/publications.asp?id=8
Watch This Space for Marine Energy International Standards
IEC TC 114 in Development
• Terminology for Marine E (IEC TS 62600 1)Energy (IEC TS 62600-1)
• Wave and Tidal Energy Resource Characterization and Assessment (IEC TS 62600-3)
• Performance Assessment ofPerformance Assessment of Wave Energy Converters (IEC TS 62600-100)
• Performance Assessment of• Performance Assessment of Tidal Energy Converters (IEC TS 62600-200)
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http://www.iec.ch/dyn/www/f?p=102:7:0::::FSP_ORG_ID:1316
The EU Process for Environmental Consents
Again the Philosophy: Learn by doing!
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Source: EquiMar, Teresa Simas – EquiMar Workshop Oct 2010
Life Cycle Energy and Greenhouse Gas Comparisons
Source: EquiMar draft protocol on Life Cycle Assessment http://www.equimar.org/
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Uncertain of the Significance of the Environmental Impacts
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Source: EquiMar draft protocol on Environmental Uncertainties http://www.equimar.org/
Uncertain Environmental Impacts (Continued)
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A Wind Energy Example: Minnesota Local Economic Impacts
Ocean Energy Can Have Local Economic Benefits
A Wind Energy Example: Minnesota Local Economic Impacts from 1000 MW of new wind development
Wind energy’s economic “ripple effect”
Direct Impacts Indirect & Induced Impacts
Totals (construction + 20yrs)
Payments to Landowners: • $2.7 million/yearLocal Property Tax Revenue:• $2.8 million/yearC
Construction Phase:• 1530 new jobs• $150.6 M to local
Total economic benefit = $1.1 billion
New local jobs during
Induced Impacts (construction + 20yrs)
Construction Phase:• 1455 new jobs• $188.5 M to local economiesOperational Phase:• 232 new long term jobs
economiesOperational Phase:• 177 local jobs• $18.2 M/yr to local
i
construction = 2985New local long-term jobs= 409
• 232 new long-term jobs• $21.2 M/yr to local economies
economies
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Construction Phase = 1-2 yearsOperational Phase = 20+ years
The Manufacturing Supply Chain Can Have National Benefits
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The Decision to Develop and Deploy Marine Energy: Requires Balancing the Risks and Benefits
The Current Energy Path• Importing petroleum products
L t t t h l
Developing Marine Renewables• A new unproven technology
Hi h i iti l t t h l• Low current cost technology• High greenhouse gas emissions• Increasing competition for resources • Predictions of high environmental impacts
P j t d f t t i i
• High initial cost technology • Secure domestic energy supply • High economic development potential • Domestic jobs generation potential
U t i f t i t l i t
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• Projected future costs increasing • Uncertain future environmental impacts
Our Cyclic Energy Policy 1970s Version
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Questions?
Robert W. Thresher, NREL Research [email protected]
Draft U.S. Marine Energy Roadmap posted at:
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http://www.oceanrenewable.com/press-room/