Our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to achieve … · 2020. 11. 25. · Survey of...
Transcript of Our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to achieve … · 2020. 11. 25. · Survey of...
What’s New: Central Government Debt (As of September 30, 2020) p. 2 Outstanding government bonds and borrowings increased by 30.9 trillion yen to 1,189.9
trillion yen from the end of June (1,159.0 trillion yen). The total amount of FBs, FILP bonds and General Bonds increased by 17.9 trillion yen, 7.2 trillion yen and 6.6 trillion yen, respectively, while Borrowings, Subsidy Bonds, etc. decreased by 0.7 trillion yen.
Monthly Topic: The Bank of Japan’s TANKAN (September 2020 Survey) p.3 On October 1, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released the TANKAN (“Short-Term Economic
Survey of Enterprises in Japan”), a quarterly survey of more than 9,000 enterprises.
IR Office: IR activities in October p. 4 During the period from the last week of September to early October, we conducted our
first virtual IR activities. We had discussions with foreign investors in Asian countries and Australia.
Statistics JGB Primary Market … p. 5 Liquidity Enhancement Auctions and JGB Buy-Back … p. 6
JGB Secondary Market … p. 7 Investor Trends and JGB Outstanding … p. 9
Economic and Financial Trends … p. 13 Information … p. 14
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Monthly Newsletter of the Ministry of Finance, Japan JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS
SUMMARY
The Ministry of Finance www.mof.go.jp
Our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to achieve stable and smooth financing for our national accounts and to minimize medium-to-long term financing costs.
November 2020
Central Government Debt (As of September 30, 2020) On November 10, the Ministry of Finance released the update on central government debt. Debt
outstanding and composition as of the end of September 2020 are as follows:
The end of September 2020
(Actual)
Increase or Decrease(-) from
the End of the Previous Quarter
1) Outstanding Government Bonds and Borrowings
General Bonds 894.4 6.6
Fiscal Investment and Loan Program Bonds (FILP Bonds) 101.1 7.2
Borrowings, Subsidy Bonds, etc. 59.2 -0.7
Financing Bills (FBs) 135.2 17.9
Total 1,189.9 30.9
2) Outstanding Government-Guaranteed Debts
Government-Guaranteed Debts 34.9 -0.5
The end of Sept. 2020
(Actual)
Increase or Decrease(-) from
the End of the Previous Quarter
The end of FY2020
(Estimate)
① General Bonds 894.4 6.6 Approx. 964
② Fiscal Investment and Loan Program Bonds Not included Not included Not included
③ Borrowings, Subsidy Bonds, etc. (Note 1) 26.1 -0.3 Approx. 29
④ Financing Bills Not included Not included Not included
Long-term debt outstanding of central governments 920.5 6.3 Approx. 993
⑤ Long-term debt outstanding of local governments (Note 2) Approx. 189
Long-term debt outstanding of central and local governments (Note 2) Approx. 1,182
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(trillion yen)
Notes:
1. Figures may not sum up to the total because of rounding.
2. Above "Outstanding Government Bonds and Borrowings" includes government bonds and borrowings held by government.
3. Figures are total of the general account and all special accounts, and the coverage is different from the central government defined in SNA.
4. The data as of December 31, 2020 will be released on February 10, 2021. Details: https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/gbb/e202009.html
Outstanding government bonds and borrowings increased by 30.9 trillion yen to 1,189.9 trillion yen from the end of June (1,159.0 trillion yen). The total amount of FBs, FILP bonds and General Bonds increased by 17.9 trillion yen, 7.2 trillion yen and 6.6 trillion yen, respectively, while Borrowings, Subsidy Bonds, etc. decreased by 0.7 trillion yen.
Long-term outstanding central government debt, which does not include FILP bonds, FBs or some of the borrowings related to local governments, increased to 920.5 trillion yen from the end of June (914.2 trillion yen).
<Main Points>
Note 1: The borrowings of the Special Account for Allotment of Local Allocation Tax and Local Transfer Tax (end of FY2019: approx.¥31trillion) are included in “⑤Long-term
debt outstanding of local governments” because the burden of redemption funds falls on local governments.
Note 2: The actual figure of “⑤Long-term debt outstanding of local governments” is blank, because quarterly data has not been created.
Central Government Debt
(Reference) Long-term debt outstanding of central and local governments The MOF has announced the “Long-term debt outstanding of central and local governments” whose interest payments and redemption funds are mainly
to be covered by tax revenues, from the viewpoint of transparency of fiscal management. The statistics are derived by adding the long-term debt outstanding of local governments to the above mentioned Central Government Debt, while excluding Fiscal Investment and Loan Program Bonds and Financing Bills.
(trillion yen)
What’s New
2 -31 6
Non-manufacturing -25 -21 4 -24 -3
ChangebetweenSept. and
Dec.
Manufacturing -39 -37
1
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -34 -27 7 -17 10
Non-manufacturing -17 -12 5 -11
-2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing -36 -34 2 -30 4
Non-manufacturing -27 -23 4 -25
-45 -44 1 -38 6
[All Enterprises]
All industries -31 -28 3 -27 1
Non-manufacturing -26 -22 4 -27 -5
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing
June 2020 Sept. 2020Dec. 2020(Forecast)
ChangebetweenJune and
Sept.
‐60%
‐50%
‐40%
‐30%
‐20%
‐10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
(Diffusion index)
Large enterprises/Manufacturing
Large enterprises/Non‐Manufacturing
Small enterprises/Manufacturing
Small enterprises/Non‐Manufacturing
The Bank of Japan’s TANKAN (September 2020 Survey) On October 1, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released the TANKAN (“Short-Term Economic Survey
of Enterprises in Japan”), a quarterly survey of more than 9,000 enterprises. The points are as follows:
The diffusion index for all enterprises rose from -31 to -28 in September. In particular, there was relatively big improvement for large enterprises in the manufacturing sector. The index for all enterprises sizes in the non-manufacturing sector also improved.
December forecast figures show further improvement in the manufacturing sector, even though some indices in the non-manufacturing sector decline.
MONTHLY TOPIC
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(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", % points)
(Source) Bank of Japan “Tankan” For more information, see http://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/tk/index.htm/
(Source) Bank of Japan “Tankan”
Hi! This month we are focusing on our first virtual IR activities.
In normal circumstances, we go on overseas business trips and have meetings with foreign investors. This year it has been difficult to meet in person because of the COVID-19 pandemic. So, during the period from the last week of September to early October, we conducted our first virtual IR activities.
Fortunately, they were all pretty smooth meetings and went well. They were also comfortable. One advantage of virtual meetings is that they do not require all the advance planning that direct meetings have. We do not have to spend all the time planning for a long business trip, which can be time-consuming. We also believe that this gives us more spontaneity, so that we can say something like “how about having a meeting in 2 weeks?”
We had discussions with foreign investors in Asian countries and Australia. We are very grateful to them for giving us this opportunity. They gave us their straightforward views on JGBs and some recommendations for us. It was really great for us to exchange views on JGBs. We learned a lot from these discussions and we also believe that this led to mutual understanding of the Japanese markets and economy.
We would like to continue our virtual IR activities to provide investors with information such as our approach to debt management and Japanese economic policies because unfortunately, we need to acknowledge that this situation is not ending right away. But, we do not think these online meetings can completely take the place of in-person meetings in terms of deepening vivid interactions with foreign investors. Therefore, we are still looking forward to seeing foreign investors in-person in the near future, once this unprecedented health crisis is over.
IR Office
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If you have any questions regarding the contents of this newsletter, please do not hesitate to contact us at: [email protected]
Auction Results
(Bonds)
Auction Date Type of Security Issue Number Maturity Date Nominal
Coupon
Amounts of Competitive
Bids (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids
Accepted (billion yen)
Yield at the Lowest
Accepted Price
Yield at the Average
Price
Amounts of Non-Competitive Bids Tendered
/Accepted (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids Accepted at the
Non-price- competitive Auction Ⅰ (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids Accepted at the
Non-price- competitive Auction Ⅱ (billion yen)
8/4/2020 10-year 359 6/20/2030 0.1% 7,666.7 2,107.4 0.021% 0.018% 1.265 490.5 210.1 8/6/2020 10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds 25 3/10/2030 0.2% 640.9 199.9 0.006% - - - - 8/18/2020 30-year 67 6/20/2050 0.6% 2,515.4 730.2 0.625% 0.617% - 169.2 22.6 8/20/2020 5-year 144 6/20/2025 0.1% 7,236.5 2,036.9 ▲0.091% ▲0.093% 1.000 461.3 0.0 8/25/2020 20-year 173 6/20/2040 0.4% 3,837.0 978.9 0.405% 0.403% - 220.3 117.0 8/27/2020 2-year 416 9/1/2022 0.1% 11,403.8 2,444.9 ▲0.114% ▲0.115% 1.000 553.4 101.2 9/1/2020 10-year 359 6/20/2030 0.1% 6,679.8 2,118.0 0.045% 0.034% 2.280 479.3 0.0 9/3/2020 30-year 67 6/20/2050 0.6% 2,565.4 733.8 0.617% 0.611% - 165.4 86.0 9/8/2020 5-year 144 6/20/2025 0.1% 7,247.6 2,037.9 ▲0.087% ▲0.091% - 461.3 0.0 9/10/2020 20-year 173 6/20/2040 0.4% 3,636.2 984.6 0.413% 0.408% - 214.6 43.9 9/24/2020 40-year 13 3/20/2060 0.5% 1,324.5 499.3 0.610% - - - 44.8 9/29/2020 2-year 417 10/1/2022 0.1% 9,856.1 2,450.6 ▲0.139% ▲0.141% - 548.5 124.1 10/1/2020 10-year 360 9/20/2030 0.1% 8,560.1 2,107.2 0.025% 0.024% 1.265 490.5 215.4 10/6/2020 30-year 68 9/20/2050 0.6% 2,578.5 733.6 0.643% 0.638% - 165.4 1.6 10/8/2020 5-year 145 9/20/2025 0.1% 9,978.1 2,038.2 ▲0.089% ▲0.091% - 461.3 249.1 10/20/2020 20-year 174 9/20/2040 0.4% 3,755.1 972.8 0.397% 0.394% - 226.0 105.3 10/27/2020 2-year 418 11/1/2022 0.1% 9,744.1 2,445.8 ▲0.127% ▲0.130% - 553.5 0.0
Auction Results (Treasury Discount Bills)
Auction Date Type of Security Issue Number Maturity Date
Amounts of Competitive Bids
(billion yen)
Amounts of Bids Accepted
(billion yen)
Yield at the Lowest
Accepted Price
Yield at the Average
Price
Amounts of Bids Accepted at the
Non-price- competitive Auction Ⅰ (billion yen)
8/6/2020 6-month 927 2/10/2021 8,749.60 2,708.16 ▲0.1375% ▲0.1454% 591.80 8/7/2020 3-month 928 11/9/2020 16,744.40 6,156.36 ▲0.0669% ▲0.0737% 1,393.60 8/14/2020 3-month 929 11/16/2020 20,316.70 6,169.91 ▲0.0661% ▲0.0701% 1,380.00 8/19/2020 1-year 930 8/20/2021 8,421.70 2,895.67 ▲0.1308% ▲0.1417% 604.30 8/21/2020 3-month 931 11/24/2020 17,003.39 6,156.45 ▲0.0753% ▲0.0829% 1,393.50 8/24/2020 6-month 932 2/25/2021 9,131.70 2,852.87 ▲0.1011% ▲0.1110% 547.10 8/28/2020 3-month 933 11/30/2020 21,274.40 6,156.34 ▲0.0862% ▲0.0898% 1,393.60 9/4/2020 3-month 934 12/7/2020 18,950.70 6,156.36 ▲0.1162% ▲0.1239% 1,393.60 9/9/2020 6-month 935 3/10/2021 9,913.60 3,039.88 ▲0.1330% ▲0.1450% 560.10 9/11/2020 3-month 936 12/14/2020 17,841.10 6,156.35 ▲0.1102% ▲0.1178% 1,393.60 9/16/2020 1-year 937 9/21/2021 12,316.50 2,862.97 ▲0.1365% ▲0.1365% 637.00 9/18/2020 3-month 938 12/21/2020 20,986.50 6,158.05 ▲0.1045% ▲0.1107% 1,391.90 9/24/2020 6-month 939 3/25/2021 13,728.20 3,017.75 ▲0.1410% ▲0.1430% 682.20 9/25/2020 3-month 940 1/6/2021 17,537.70 6,156.48 ▲0.1659% ▲0.1860% 1,393.50 10/2/2020 3-month 941 1/12/2021 18,634.72 6,162.94 ▲0.1418% ▲0.1525% 1,387.00 10/8/2020 6-month 942 4/12/2021 11,501.80 3,107.97 ▲0.1122% ▲0.1202% 692.00 10/9/2020 3-month 943 1/18/2021 16,256.70 6,178.05 ▲0.0875% ▲0.0945% 1,371.90 10/16/2020 3-month 944 1/25/2021 19,881.27 6,156.32 ▲0.0781% ▲0.0834% 1,393.60 10/19/2020 1-year 945 10/20/2021 10,453.30 2,890.66 ▲0.1288% ▲0.1348% 609.30 10/22/2020 6-month 946 4/26/2021 11,342.90 3,132.01 ▲0.0982% ▲0.1002% 667.90 10/23/2020 3-month 947 2/1/2021 19,877.60 6,157.35 ▲0.0744% ▲0.0793% 1,392.60 10/30/2020 3-month 948 2/8/2021 19,923.17 6,167.89 ▲0.0800% ▲0.0845% 1,382.00
Auction Calendar for Nov. 2020 – Jan. 2021 Auction Date Issue Auction Date Issue Auction Date Issue Auction Date Issue
11/4(Wed) 10-year 11/24(Tue) T-Bills (6-month) 12/15(Tue) Liquidity Enhancement Auction (remaining maturities of 5-15.5 years) 1/15(Fri) Liquidity Enhancement Auction
(remaining maturities of 5-15.5 years)
11/6(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 11/25(Wed) 40-year 12/16(Wed) T-Bills (1-year) 1/19(Tue) T-Bills (1-year) 11/6(Fri) 10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds 11/27(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 12/17(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 1/19(Tue) 20-year
11/9(Mon) T-Bills (6-month) 11/27(Fri) 2-year 12/22(Tue) Liquidity Enhancement Auction (remaining maturities of 15.5-39 years) 1/20(Wed) T-Bills (6-month)
11/10(Tue) 30-year 12/1(Tue) 10-year 12/24(Thu) 2-year 1/22(Fri) T-Bills (3-month)
11/12(Thu) 5-year 12/3(Thu) 30-year 1/5(Tue) T-Bills (3-month) 1/22(Fri) Liquidity Enhancement Auction (remaining maturities of 1-5 years)
11/13(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 12/4(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 1/6(Wed) 10-year 1/26(Tue) 40-year
11/16(Mon) Liquidity Enhancement Auction (remaining maturities of 5-15.5 years) 12/8(Tue) 5-year 1/7(Thu) T-Bills (6-month) 1/28(Thu) 2-year
11/18(Wed) 20-year 12/9(Wed) T-Bills (6-month) 1/8(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 1/29(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 11/19(Thu) T-Bills (1-year) 12/10(Thu) 20-year 1/8(Fri) 30-year 11/20(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 12/11(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 1/13(Wed) 5-year 11/20(Fri) Liquidity Enhancement Auction
(remaining maturities of 1-5 years) 12/15(Tue) T-Bills (6-month) 1/15(Fri) T-Bills (3-month)
Top 10 PDs for Successful Bids in Auctions (Calculated by Duration) (Apr. 2020~Sep. 2020) Top 5 PDs for Successful Bids of Inflation-Indexed Bond (FY2019) 1 Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., Ltd. 6 Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. 1 JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. 2 Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. 7 SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. 2 Mizuho Securities Co., Ltd. 3 Mizuho Securities Co., Ltd. 8 Deutsche Securities Inc. 3 Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. 4 Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. 9 BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited 4 Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co., Ltd. 5 JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. 10 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd. 5 Nomura Securities Co., Ltd.
JGB Primary Market
Note.1: The above calendar may be changed or added in light of changes in circumstances. In such cases, it will be announced in advance. Note.2: Each issue amount will be announced about one week prior to each auction date.
(Until 31 October 2020)
(Until 31 October 2020)
-5-
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,5003,000
3,500
4,000
JL15
7
JX23
JL15
8
JX24
JL15
9
JX25
JL16
0
JX26
JL16
1
JL16
2
JX27
JL16
3
JL16
4
JX28
JL16
5
JL16
6
JX29
JL16
7
JL16
8
JX30
JL16
9
JL17
0
JX31
JL17
1
JL17
2
JX32
JL17
3
JX33
JX34
JX35
JX36
JX37
JX38
JX39
JX40
JX41
JX42
JX43
JX44
JX45
JX46
JX47
JX48
JX49
JX50
JX51
JX52
JX53
JX54
JX55
JX56
JX57
JX58 JU
1
JX59
JX60
JX61
JX62 JU
2
JX63
JX64
JX65
JX66 JU
3
JX67 JU
4
JU5
JU6
JU7
JU8
JU9
JU10
JU11
JU12
Amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auctions Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auction)(billion yen)
(Remaining maturities)15.5 20 39
Results of Liquidity Enhancement Auctions
Auction Date Amounts of Competitive
Bids (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids
Accepted (billion yen)
Average Accepted Spread
Highest Accepted Spread
Issues Re-opened
8/12/2020 1,010.6 499.0 0.009% 0.014% 20-year(157,165,169,170,171,172) 30-year(23,30,31,38,43,46,47,49,50,54,56,65,66) 40-year(1,2,4,6,7,9,10,11,12)
8/14/2020 1,664.0 498.9 0.008% 0.011% 10-year(340,341,354,358) 20-year(82,83,84,89,116,117,118,121,122,123,124,128,129)
9/15/2020 2,083.9 497.3 0.000% 0.002% 10-year(340,341,343,344,345,346,348,351,356) 20-year(88,89,90,92,93,94,96,97,98,99,103,104,108,113,118,121,122,123,124,130,145,153,154,155)
9/18/2020 1,421.0 399.5 ▲0.010% ▲0.008%
2-year(404,405,411,412,413) 5-year(132,133,136,137,138,139,140,142) 10-year(327,332,336,339) 20-year(59,72,73,78)
10/13/2020 1,161.4 498.4 ▲0.002% 0.000% 20-year(157,162,165,171,172,173) 30-year(23,34,35,36,37,39,62,63,66) 40-year(1,2,5,8,9,11,12)
10/15/2020 2,203.0 497.9 ▲0.007% ▲0.006% 10-year(341,342,345,349,350,351) 20-year(93,94,95,97,99,100,101,102,103,104,105,106,112,154,156)
Target Zones of Liquidity Enhancement Auctions for the Third Quarter of FY 2020
10-year Inflation-Indexed
Auction Date Amounts of
Competitive Bids (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids Accepted
(billion yen)
Average Accepted
Spread (yen)
Highest Accepted
Spread (yen) Issue Numbers
7/8/2020 175.4 50.0 ▲0.217 ▲0.13 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 8/19/2020 184.1 50.1 ▲0.147 ▲0.06 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25 9/4/2020 223.6 50.3 ▲0.281 ▲0.22 19, 20, 21, 23, 24, 25
10/7/2020 170.9 50.1 ▲0.155 ▲0.05 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 24
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,500
341
JL83
JL84 34
2JL
85JL
86JL
87 343
JL88
JL89 34
4JL
90JL
91 345
JL92 34
6JL
93JL
94 347
JL95
JL96 34
8JL
97JL
98 349
JL99 35
0JL
100
JL10
135
1JL
102
JL10
3JL
104
352
JL10
5JL
106
353
JL10
7JL
108
354
JL10
9JL
110
355
JL11
1JL
112
356
JL11
3JX
135
7JL
114
JL11
5JX
235
8JL
116
JL11
7JX
335
9JL
118
JL11
9JL
120
JL12
1JL
122
JX4
JL12
3JL
124
JL12
5JL
126
JL12
7JX
5JL
128
JL12
9JL
130
JL13
1JX
6JL
132
JL13
3JL
134
JL13
5JL
136
JX7
JL13
7JL
138
JL13
9JL
140
JX8
JL14
1JL
142
JX9
JL14
3JL
144
JX10
JL14
5JX
11JL
146
JX12
JL14
7JX
13JL
148
JX14
JL14
9JX
15JL
150
JX16
JL15
1JX
17JL
152
JX18
JL15
3JX
19JL
154
JX20
JL15
5JX
21JL
156
JX22
Amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auctions Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auction)
5 10 15.5
(billion yen)
(Remaining maturities)
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000
JN40
6
JN40
7
JS13
0
319
320
JL53
JL54
JN40
8
JN40
9
JN41
0
JS13
1
321
322
JL55
JN41
1
JN41
2
JN41
3
JS13
2
323
324
JL56
JL57
JN41
4
JN41
5
JN41
6
JS13
3
325
JL58
JS13
4
326
327
JL59
JL60
JS13
5
328
JL61
JS13
6
329
JL62
JL63
JS13
7
330
331
JL64
JS13
8
332
JL65
JL66
JS13
9
333
JL67
JL68
JL69
JS14
0
334
JL70
JL71
JS14
1
335
JL72
JS14
2
336
337
JL73
JL74
JS14
3
338
JL75
JL76
JL77
JS14
4
339
JL78
JL79
JL80 34
0
JL81
JL82
Amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auctions Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auction)
1 2 5(Remaining maturities)
(billion yen)
③Remaining maturity : approx.15.5‐~39‐year
Liquidity Enhancement Auctions and JGB Buy-Back
①Remaining maturity : approx.1‐~5‐year
Note1: JN shows 2‐year JGBs. JS shows 5‐year JGBs. JL shows 20‐year JGBs. JX shows 30‐year JGBs. JU shows 40‐year JGBs. Outstanding amount is as of the end of September 2020. Note2: All issues in the graph above will be eligible afterward.
Buy-Back Results
(Until 31 October 2020)
②Remaining maturity : approx.5‐~15.5‐year
(Until 31 October 2020)
-6-
‐0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Jan‐13 Jan‐14 Jan‐15 Jan‐16 Jan‐17 Jan‐18 Jan‐19 Jan‐20
2‐year bond 5‐year bond 10‐year bond
20‐year bond 30‐year bond 40‐year bond
‐1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Jan‐13 Jan‐14 Jan‐15 Jan‐16 Jan‐17 Jan‐18 Jan‐19 Jan‐20
Japan United States
United Kingdom Germany
‐0.4%
‐0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Jan‐13Jul‐13Jan‐14Jul‐14Jan‐15Jul‐15Jan‐16Jul‐16Jan‐17Jul‐17Jan‐18Jul‐18Jan‐19Jul‐19Jan‐20Jul‐20
Volatility Yield (right scale)
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
2019/12/302020/3/312020/6/302020/7/312020/8/312020/9/30
40353020 25151050
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
BEI (Japan : 10 year)
BEI (U.S.A. : 10 year)
BEI (U.K. : 10 year)
Note: BEI (Japan: 10 year) is calculated based on the compound interest rate of the new Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the 10-Year Bonds Sources: Japan: Calculation by the Ministry of Finance based on the information on interest rates offered by NIKKEI QUICK.
U.S.A., U.K.: Bloomberg.
JGB Yield Curves
Source: Japan Bond Trading Co.,Ltd.
Yields of JGB
Long - Term Interest Rates (10Yr)
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
-7-
Yield and Volatility (10Yr)
Break-Even Inflation Rates
Source: Bloomberg
(Until 30 September 2020)
(Until 30 September 2020)
(Until 30 September 2020)
(Until 30 September 2020)
JGB Secondary Market
0100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,100
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
Treasury Discount BillsMedium Term BondsLong Term Bonds
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
Bond-Lending
Bond-Gensaki
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
Call Rate (Uncollateralized Overnight)
TIBOR 3-months (Euro-Yen)
Basic Loan Rate
Short-Term Interest Rates
Sources: Bank of Japan, Tanshi Association, Bloomberg
JGB Over-the-Counter Trading Volume (TOKYO)
Trading Volume of 10-Year JGB Futures
Repurchase Transactions
-8-
Note: Trading volume is the sum of sales and purchases including the trading volume of bonds with repurchase agreements. Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association
Sources: Tokyo Stock Exchange (until Mar.2014), Osaka Exchange (from Apr. 2014)
(trillion yen)
(trillion yen)
(trillion yen)
(Until 30 September 2020)
Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association
Super long-term
Long-term
Medium-term
T-bills
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
JanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJuly
City Banks
Net Purchase
Net Sale
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
JanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJuly
Regional banks
Net Purchase
Net Sale
2015 2016 2017 20192018 2020
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
JanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJuly
Life and non-life insurance companies
Net Purchase
Net Sale
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
JanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJuly
Foreigners
Net Purchase
Net Sale
2015 2016 2017 20192018 2020
(trillion yen) (trillion yen)
(trillion yen) (trillion yen)
0
50
100
150
200
Jan‐12 Jan‐13 Jan‐14 Jan‐15 Jan‐16 Jan‐17 Jan‐18 Jan‐19 Jan‐200
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan‐12 Jan‐13 Jan‐14 Jan‐15 Jan‐16 Jan‐17 Jan‐18 Jan‐19 Jan‐20
200210220230240250260270280290
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Apr‐12 Apr‐13 Apr‐14 Apr‐15 Apr‐16 Apr‐17 Apr‐18 Apr‐19 Apr‐20
Total Assets
Monetary Base
JGBs
T‐Bills
QQE2QQE(trillion yen)
Apr 2013(Actual)
Sep 2020(Actual)
Monetary Base 155 606
JGBs 98 485
T-Bills 36 45
CP 1.4 4.3
Corporate Bonds 2.9 5.3
ETFs 1.7 34.2J-REITs 0.13 0.63
Total Assets 175 690
-9-
Trends in Bank Assets by Types
Trends in JGBs Transactions (by investor type)
BOJ Trends
Regional Banks City Banks
Source: Bank of Japan
(trillion yen) (trillion yen)
Loans
Cash and Deposits
Government Bonds
Municipal Bonds
Corporate Bonds
Equities
Foreign Securities
Source: Bank of Japan
Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association
Investor Trends and JGB Outstanding
12.8%
34.4%
62.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
①Market Share of Foreign Investors (JGB Futures Market)
②Market Share of Foreign Investors (JGB Market)
③JGB Holdings by Foreign Investors
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Amount of JGB Holdings (RHS)
Proportion of JGB Holdings (LHS)
(trillion yen)(%)
12.8
150.1
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
City Banks Trust Banks Insurance Companies Foreigners
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
Short-term debt securities Long-term debt securities Equity and investment fund shares
Net Purchase
Net
Sales
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
Short-term debt securities Long-term debt securities Equity and investment fund shares
Net Purchase
Net
Sales
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
Short-term debt securities Long-term debt securities Equity and investment fund shares
Net Purchase
Net
Sales
-10-
JGBs Holdings by Foreign Investors
Banks(Banking Accounts) Life Insurance Companies
Transactions of Domestic Securities by Non-Residents
Note.1: Quarterly basis. Note.2: “JGB” includes “FILP Bonds” and “T-Bills”. Source: Bank of Japan
Transactions of Foreign Securities by Residents (by Investor types)
Foreign Investors Presence
Note.1: Quarterly basis. Note.2: “JGB” includes T-Bills. The figures of ②excludes dealers’ transactions. Sources: Bank of Japan, Japan Securities Dealers Association, Tokyo Stock Exchange,
Osaka Exchange
(trillion yen) (trillion yen)
Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association
(trillion yen)
Outstanding of Repurchase Agreements (by Investor types)
Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
Total 143.3 trillion yen
JGB and T-Bill Holders
Breakdown by JGB and T-Bill Holders (The end of June 2020 QE)
Note1: “JGB” includes “FILP Bonds.” Note2: “Banks, etc.” includes “Japan Post Bank,” “Securities investment trust” and “Securities companies.” Note3: “Life and Non-life insurance, etc.” includes “Japan Post Insurance.” Source: Bank of Japan “Flow of Funds Accounts (Preliminary Figures)”
(trillion yen)
Breakdown of Outstanding Amount of General Bonds by Remaining Years to Maturity
T-Bill Holders JGB Holders
-11-
Total 1,027.0 trillion yen
Total 1,170.3 trillion yen
89.2692.55
71.99
65.2260.11
44.0241.24
43.0742.43
41.63
17.4516.51
19.58
19.2021.76
20.0218.22
18.3218.13
16.80
6.747.21
6.398.52
9.6510.91
9.31
11.39 10.08 9.59
1.96 1.96 2.00 2.17 2.28 2.83 2.811.89 2.14
0.51
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59
Treasury Bills
2-yr bonds
JGBs for retail investors (3-yr-Fixed-rate)
JGBs for retail investors (5-yr-Fixed-rate)
5-yr bonds
Inflation-Indexed bonds
JGBs for retail investors (Floating-rate)
10-yr bonds
15-yr-floating-rate bonds
20-yr bonds
30-yr bonds
40-yr bonds
Average remaining years to maturity: 9 years and 2 months
(trillion yen)
(FY)
0100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002,200
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
(billion yen)
(issue number)
Outstanding amount (excl.BOJ holding)
BOJ holding
Types The amount of redemption at maturity Scheduled redemption date
15-Year Floating-Rate Bonds 790.9 November 20
2-Year Bonds 2,340.0 November 1
Treasury Bills 1,800.0 November 20
Total 4,930.9
Source: Ministry of Finance
General Bonds Issuance Amount and Outstanding
Note 1: Issuance Amount: revenue basis, FY2009-2018: Actual, FY2019: Supplementary budget, FY2020: Initial budget Note 2: Outstanding: nominal basis, FY2009-2018: Actual, FY2019: Supplementary budget, FY2020: Initial budget Source: Ministry of Finance
Market-held Balance of the Inflation-Indexed Bonds (as of the end of September, 2020)
(trillion yen)
Scheduled redemption of JGB at maturity in November, 2020
Note.1: The figures are based on the outstanding JGBs at the end of September, 2020 Note.2: The figures are the scheduled redemption at maturity and may be different from the actual redemption due to Buy-back of JGBs. Note.3: The figures do not include "JGB for Retail Investors." Note.4: If the redemption date coincides with bank holiday, the payment of redemption is carried out on the following business day. Note.5: Figures may not sum up to total because of rounding.
(billion yen)
Sources: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan
Time-to-Maturity Structure of Outstanding JGB(June 2020)
-12-
(trillion yen)
‐60%
‐50%
‐40%
‐30%
‐20%
‐10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
(Diffusion index)
Large enterprises/Manufacturing
Large enterprises/Non‐Manufacturing
Small enterprises/Manufacturing
Small enterprises/Non‐Manufacturing
0.0%
-1
0
1
2
3
4(%)
CPI
CPI excluding food (excluding alcohilicbeverages) and energy
Change from the previous year
Apr.4, 2013BOJ released QQE
―0.3%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan‐12 Jan‐13 Jan‐14 Jan‐15 Jan‐16 Jan‐17 Jan‐18 Jan‐19 Jan‐20
(trillion yen)
Banknotes in Circulation
Coins in Circulation
Current Account Balances
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
Jan‐13 Jan‐14 Jan‐15 Jan‐16 Jan‐17 Jan‐18 Jan‐19 Jan‐20
(billion yen)
Monthly Quarter (Mean)
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan‐13 Jan‐14 Jan‐15 Jan‐16 Jan‐17 Jan‐18 Jan‐19 Jan‐20
(2015 average=100・Seasonally Adjusted Index)
Production Shipments
Inventory Inventory Ratio
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
(ratio)
September, 20201.03
September, 2020
3.0%
Job openings‐to‐applicants ratio(RHS)
Unemployment rate(LHS)
Aug, 20090.42
Jul, 2009
5.5%
1.6 2.1
1.7
-1.0 -0.5
0.9
2.0
1.6
4.3
3.9
5.0
3.3
6.1 4.9
6.1
4.3
6.4
4.8
7.3
4.3
6.0 5.0
5.8
2.6
6.2
4.7
5.8
3.9
5.8
1.4
5.3
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2017
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2018
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2019
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
Primary Income Trade Balance
Services Secondary Income
Current Account
4.9
-2.9 -1.5
1.1
5.03.1 3.4
-0.2
4.1
-7.5
0.42.05.7
0.4
-0.2-1.5
2.1 0.40.91.2
4.81.2 2.31.9
-1.7
1.5
-3.2
2.32.9 1.6
0.2
-7.1
-2.3
-28.8
21.4
-32.0
-22.0
-12.0
-2.0
8.0
18.0
28.0
Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
(%)
Private Demand Public Demand
Foreign Demand Real GDP
Annualized rate of Change from the previous quarter (Seasonally adjusted)
(CY)
Real GDP Growth Rate
Employment Conditions
Prices
Changes in Current Account
Monetary Base Indices of Industrial Production
Total Value of Machinery Orders (Private Sector excl. Volatile orders)
TANKAN (Business Conditions)
Source: Cabinet Office Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Source: Cabinet Office
(trillion yen)
Economic and Financial Trends
Source: Bank of Japan
Source: Bank of Japan
-13-
English Publications on JGBs Frequency URL Debt Management
Message from the Financial Bureau As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/message.htm
About JGBs As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/guide.htm
About the Debt Management Policy As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/about.htm
JGB Issuance Plan As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/plan/index.htm
Auction Calendar
Auction Calendar Monthly https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/auction/calendar/index.htm
Historical Data of Auction Results Monthly https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/auction/past_auction_results/index.html
Topics
Product Characteristics of the JGB As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/bond/index.html
Treasury Discount Bills (T-Bills) As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/t_bill/index.htm
Japanese Government Guaranteed Bonds Annual https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/gov_guaranteed_bonds/index.htm
Interest Rate Swap Semiannual https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/swap/index.htm
Taxation of Government Bonds As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/taxation2016/index.html
For Individual Investors As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/individual/index.htm
Data
Central Government Debt Quarterly https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/gbb/index.htm
Interest Rate Daily https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm
STRIPS Monthly https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/jgbstat/index.htm
Dialogue with the market
Advisory Councils on Government Debt Management Each Meeting https://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/gov_debt_management/index.html
Meeting of JGB Market Special Participants Each Meeting https://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/jgbsp/index.html
Meeting of JGB Investors Each Meeting https://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/jgb_investor/index.html
Publications
Debt Management Report Annual https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/publication/debt_management_report/index.htm
JGB Newsletter Monthly https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/publication/newsletter/index.htm
Debt Management Policy Division, Financial Bureau, Ministry of Finance 3-1-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8940 Japan
Phone: 81-3-3581-4111 Web: https://www.mof.go.jp/
To subscribe to our Newsletter mailing list, please email: [email protected]
-14-
Information