China’s evolving Economic dynamics and Investment implications
OUR EVOLVING DEFINITION OF KNOWLEDGE: IMPLICATIONS …
Transcript of OUR EVOLVING DEFINITION OF KNOWLEDGE: IMPLICATIONS …
OUR EVOLVING DEFINITION OF KNOWLEDGE: IMPLICATIONS FOR C2ISR SYSTEM
PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT
DENNIS K. LEEDOM, Ph.D.Evidence Based Research, Inc.1595 Spring Hill Road, Suite 250Vienna, VA [email protected]
Paper #24110th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium
Ritz-Carlton Hotel, McLean, VA13-16 June, 2005
2A Paradigm Shift
STATE OFKNOWLEDGE
TIME
PERIOD OFNORMALSCIENCE
PARADIGMSHIFT
Thomas Kuhn’s “Paradigm Shift”
Note how orientation s hapes obs ervation, s hapes decis ion, s hapes action, and in turn is s haped by the feedback and other phenomena coming into our s ens ing or obs erving window.
Als o note how the entire “loop” (not jus t orientation) is an ongoing many-s ided implicit cros s -referencing proces s of projection, empathy, correlation, and rejection.
Note how orientation s hapes obs ervation, s hapes decis ion, s hapes action, and in turn is s haped by the feedback and other phenomena coming into our s ens ing or obs erving window.
Als o note how the entire “loop” (not jus t orientation) is an ongoing many-s ided implicit cros s -referencing proces s of projection, empathy, correlation, and rejection.
FeedForward
Observations Decision(Hypothesis)
Action(Test)
CulturalTraditions
GeneticHeritage
NewInformation Previous
Experience
Analyses &SynthesisFeed
ForwardFeed
Forward
ImplicitGuidance& Control
ImplicitGuidance& Control
UnfoldingInteraction
WithEnvironmentUnfolding
InteractionWith
Environment Feedback
Feedback
OutsideInformation
UnfoldingCircumstances
Observe Orient Decide Act
John Boyd’s OODA Loop Model
OODA OODAPARADIGM SHIFT
“Current C2ISR Models” “Future C2ISR Models”
3Motivation #1 for the Paradigm Shift:The Advent of 4th Generation Warfare
Mao Tse-Tung
Ho Chi Minh
FSLN / Sandinista
Intifada / PLO
Unique elements of 4th-generation warfare…• Strategic goal: Defeat our political will to engage in a region• Strategy: Pursue political, economic, and social actions,
engaging in limited military operations only when it furthersstrategic interests (create impression of intractable struggle)
Implications for design of C2ISR functionality…
• Adversary is coalition of convergent interests, rather than single nation stateIdentify and disrupt critical linkages that hold coalition together
• Adversary coalition consists of several tiers: leaders, supporters, civilian interestsEmploy different approach to disrupting or manipulating each tier
• Multiple, overlapping networks exists across political, social, economic, religious,humanitarian, and military dimensions
Understand the role, structure, and processes of each type of network• Strategic objectives are accomplished through direct C2, economic/social disruption,
intimidation of specific individuals/groups, and exploitation of emergent situationsIdentify and influence fitness conditions, rather than severing commo links
Hammes, T.X. (2004). 4th-generation warfare. Armed Forces Journal, November 2004
4Wicked Problem Environments
Wicked problem environment…• Problem space is ill-structured• No “right” solution, only “good enough”• Problem-solving ends only when you run
out of resources• Unique/novel set of conditions and factors• No second opportunities to do it again• No obvious alternative solution
Sensemaking driven by action…• Clarify/prioritize goals and constraints• Characterize battlespace relative to these
goals/constraints• Identify key dimensions and variables
predictive of cause/effect relationships• Identify key obstacles to success• Build solution paths to overcome obstacles
Wicked problem environment…• Problem space is ill-structured• No “right” solution, only “good enough”• Problem-solving ends only when you run
out of resources• Unique/novel set of conditions and factors• No second opportunities to do it again• No obvious alternative solution
Sensemaking driven by action…• Clarify/prioritize goals and constraints• Characterize battlespace relative to these
goals/constraints• Identify key dimensions and variables
predictive of cause/effect relationships• Identify key obstacles to success• Build solution paths to overcome obstacles
5Motivation #2 for the Paradigm Shift:Network-Centric, Effects-Based Operations
Key Nodes
Links
Vulnerabilities
Strengths
Weaknesses
Relationships
Political InformationSocial
Military
Economic
Infrastructure
“as bandwidth becomes ever less costly and more widely available, we will be able to not only allow people to process information as they see fit but also allow multiple individuals and organizations to have direct and simultaneous access to information and to each other. We will also be able to support richer interactions between and among individuals.”
6Challenge: Integrating/Reconciling Multiple Experts and Stakeholders
NCA Objectives
Desired StrategicEndstatesCenters of
Gravity
PMESII FunctionalElements
Desired TacticalEffects
BattlespaceObjects
Political Economic Military Social Information Infrastructure
Command Guidance
Stakeholder / Expert Knowledge – Either Tacit or Codified
Common Operating Picture
7Paradigm Shift in C2ISR Analysis
“…it would sure be nice if we had some clear idea what it was we were trying to do first.”
Admiral Mike Boorda
OBSERVE
ORIENT
DECIDE
ACT
PMESIIPROBLEM SPACE
DIPLOMATIC
MILITARYECONOMIC
INFORMATIONLEGAL HUMANITARIAN
FOCUSED, ACTIONABLEKNOWLEDGE
8Historical Definitions of Knowledge
RATIONALISM
Euclid, Socrates,Plato…
• Knowledge is derived primarily from logical reasoning without benefit of empirical observation
• This school of philosophy has strongly influenced the language of mathematics and artificial intelligence
EMPIRICISM
Bacon, Hobbes, Locke,Berkeley, Hume…
• Knowledge is derived primarily from empirical observation and induction wherein general ideas emerge from specific facts
• “Cause and effect” associations are mentally imposed on the natural world to organize and explain experiences
9Early 20th Century Definitions of Knowledge
ANALYTICPHILOSOPHY
Russell, Moore…
• Knowledge is developed through acquisition and definition• A small portion is acquired empirically through the senses• A greater portion is developed through description that depends
upon language and grammar• An extreme form of this philosophy, logical positivism, argues
that only those things which can be logically proved true or false are worthy of scientific study
• A further philosophical development, logical atomism, argues that language can be broken down in primitive concepts
• This philosophy is strongly reflected in artificial intelligence and modern definitions of intelligence fusion
• The general school of analytic philosophy is reflected in the “scientific method”
• Knowledge is built upon the accumulation of facts and definitions• These facts and descriptions are universal in nature, independent of
context• Knowledge is logically built or unfolded through the processes of
induction and decomposition
10Outgrowths of Analytic Philosophy
ASSOCIATIONISM
STRUCTURALISM
Pavlov, Skinner,Thorndike, Watson…
Wundt, Titchener,Brentano, Stumpf…
• Knowledge focuses on the relationships among phenomena and is primarily developed through the scientific method
• This school of philosophy gave rise to interest in S-R pairs and the linkage of understanding with action
• A later reflection of this philosophy is seen in naturalistic decision making with its emphasis on the RPD model
• Knowledge can be structured as a set of universal primitivesorganized within a systematic framework, much like the periodic table of elements in chemistry
• Physics deals with knowledge that is independent of the knower, whereas psychology deals with knowledge that is dependentupon the knower
11Reactions Against Analytic Philosophy
PRINCIPLE OF FALSIFIABILITY
CONFIRMATION HOLISM
Duhem, Popper…
Quine, Kuhn…
• Any empirical evidence can be made compatible with a given theory by the addition of ad hoc hypotheses
• A theory is not scientific if it does not admit consideration of the possibility that it might be false
• Scientific theories are confirmed or disconfirmed as a whole• Entire theoretical frameworks are subject to revision, as reflected
in the phenomena of paradigm shifts• The creation of knowledge is framed by a set of beliefs that are
socially developed and evolve over time
12Social Formation of Understanding
LINGUISTIC DETERMINISM
PERSONAL CONSTRUCTSSapir, Whorf
Polanyi
• Language and grammar are systematically related to how one uniquely conceptualizes the world
• Language and jargon variations will influence how different communities perceive a problem or situation
• Each individual acts as a scientist, continually framing their experience in terms of personal models and hypotheses
• Core constructs, constituting deeply held values and principles, are unlikely to change in the face of contradictory informationKelly
TACIT KNOWLEDGE• There exist two complimentary, but mutually exclusive, dimensions of
knowledge: tacit knowledge and focal knowledge•Focal knowledge is that knowledge dynamically held about the immediate problem, object, or phenomena in one’s focus of attention•Tacit knowledge provides the background context that serves to frame and sharpen that which is in focus
13Forms of Knowledge
Target0014838
Effect:Destroy
Resource:F-16
Constraint:Avoid Mosque
CollateralDamagePotential
PoliticalValue
MilitaryValue
SocialImpact
FunctionalLinkage toCommand
Intent
PastMission
Outcomes
AssetAvailability
CommandIntent
JointPrioritizedTarget List
14Popper: Three Worlds of Knowledge
WORLD 1Physical Objects and Forces
WORLD 2Individual Thoughts and Perspectives
WORLD 3Collectively Shared Understandings
15Definitions of Tacit Knowledge
Nonaka, Takeuchi
Davenport, Prusak
Weick, Choo
• It is nearly impossible to find a publication on organizational knowledge or knowledge management that does not use the term “tacit knowledge”
• Knowledge is best defined as justified true belief
• Tacit knowledge a fluid mix of framed experiences, values, contextual information, and expert insight that provides a framework for evaluating and incorporating new experiences and information
• In organizations, it can be found in organizational routines, processes, practices, and norms
• Patterns or connections to past experience can be found in the form of ideology, 3rd-order controls, paradigms, theories of action, tradition, and stories
• Cultural knowledge consists of those beliefs an organization holds to be true based on experience, observation, and reflection on self and the environment
16Data / Frame Model of Sensemaking
AVAILABLE DATA(CUES)
FRAGMENTARYMENTAL MODELSCONSTRUCTED
MENTALMODEL OFSITUATION
SENSEMAKING FUNCTIONS:Frame ElaborationFrame QuestioningFrame PreservationFrame ComparisonFrame SeekingReframing
Sieck, W.R.; Klein, G.; Peluso, D.A.; Smith, J.L. & Harris-Thompson, D. (2004). FOCUS: A Model of Sensemaking (Final Technical Report, Contract 1435-01-01-CT-31161, US Army Research Institute). Fairborn, OH: Klein Associates, Inc.
17Directed Cues
Tsoukas, H. (2002). Do We Really Understand Tacit Knowledge? Presented to Knowledge Economy and Society Seminar, LSE Department of Information Systems, 14 June, 2002.
FOCAL PROBLEMOR ACTION
18Collaborative Knowledge Creation
CentralIssue
CentralIssue
CentralIssue
CentralIssue
CentralIssue
CentralIssue
Individual ATacit Knowledge Vectors
Individual BTacit Knowledge Vectors
Individual ATacit Knowledge Vectors
(Modified)
Individual BTacit Knowledge Vectors
(Modified)
SymbolicArticulation
SymbolicArticulation
InformationExchange
OriginalPerspective of EachFunctional Expert
Shifted / ExpandedFocus of Attention of
Each Functional Expert
19Hierarchical Model of Sensemaking
COMMANDER
STAFF
Commitment& Focus
Elaboration& Validation
• Political/cultural inputfrom external contacts
Data• Strategic / operational
goals and constraints• Desired endstates and
centers of gravity• Concept of operation
Frames
• Sensor data, HUMINT, SPOTREPs
• Open source intelligence• Effects assessments
Data• Tactical causal models
that define / articulate nodes and effects
• Metrics for assessing progress
Frames
FOCALKNOWLEDGE
Dynamic, analytic framework of actionable knowledge that serves to
identify and enable the next series of decision points
Incremental, iterative decision process
What do I want toachieve, and when?
What is the current andprojected situation?
OperationalBattlespace
Feedback
Probing Actions
Inter-AgencyGroup
Coordination
20Expertise in Context
Knowledge WorkerCharacteristics
Problem-TaskStructure
Social-OrganizationalContext
KnowledgeProducts
•Recruitment / Education•Leadership•Joint / Service Training•Operational Experience•Personnel Management
•Recruitment / Education•Leadership•Joint / Service Training•Operational Experience•Personnel Management
•National Security Challenges•Mission Goals / Objectives•Joint / Service Doctrine•Tactics / Techniques / Procedures•PMESII Battlespace Variables•Diplomatic / Information / Military /
Economic Response Options•Battlespace Sensors / Info Sources•Information Systems / Work Aids•Information Network Connectivity
•National Security Challenges•Mission Goals / Objectives•Joint / Service Doctrine•Tactics / Techniques / Procedures•PMESII Battlespace Variables•Diplomatic / Information / Military /
Economic Response Options•Battlespace Sensors / Info Sources•Information Systems / Work Aids•Information Network Connectivity
•Interagency / Coalition Stakeholders•Authority / Command Structures•Organization Boundaries / Interfaces•Staff Planning / Execution Rhythms•Patterns of Collaboration
•Interagency / Coalition Stakeholders•Authority / Command Structures•Organization Boundaries / Interfaces•Staff Planning / Execution Rhythms•Patterns of Collaboration
•Planning Estimates / IPB•Mission Analysis•Prioritized Effects List•Effects Tasking Order•Joint Target List
•Planning Estimates / IPB•Mission Analysis•Prioritized Effects List•Effects Tasking Order•Joint Target List
Two-
way In
tera
ctio
ns
Two-way InteractionsThree-wayInteractions
Two-way
InteractionsTwo-way
Interactions
21Knowledge Creation Metrics
Quality of Actionable Knowledge• Addresses political, military, economic, social,
information, and infrastructure dimensions• Links centers of gravity, functional elements,
and battlespace nodes to command intent• Is properly vetted for rules-of-engagement
and other operational constraints
Coherence of Problem-Task Structure• Info sources, sensemaking support tools, and
networks contribute to framing problem space• Organizational structure and staff procedures
define appropriate patterns of collaboration• Theories of action, mental models, and metrics
adequate for articulating political, military,economic, social, information, and infrastructuredimensions of battlespace
• Work flow patterns enable effective contribution of stakeholders across units, agencies, organizations
Adequacy of Knowledge Workers• Leaders demonstrate critical thinking skills
regarding each dimension of battlespace• Staff training and personnel assignments are
responsive to 4th generation warfare environment• Organizational knowledge maps enable rapid
and comprehensive involvement of the rightexpertise
• Staff leaders provide effective monitoring andadjustment of collaboration to insure appropriateparticipation and quality of knowledge products
Maturity of Social-Organizational Networks• Joint training develops cross-boundary awareness
of staff capabilities and perspectives• Personnel rotation policies allow construction and
maintenance of mature social networks• Authority and command structures facilitate bottom-up
staff initiative and organizational agility• Staff planning and execution rhythms enable self-
synchronization while maintaining cohesion of thesensemaking process
TWO-WAYINTERACTIONS
TWO-WAYINTERACTIONS
TWO-WAYINTERACTIONS
C2 Process Issues
C2 Product Issues
22Performance Metrics
Individual Sensemaking• Frames identify key elements of understanding
of current operational situation• Frames provide feasible path of action to
achieve objectives and meet constraints• Frames have been adequately validated by
available data and information• Alternative interpretations of available data
and information have been considered• Major areas of uncertainty are accommodated
through risk-planning and/or collection ofadditional data and information
• Data/frame structures are kept current withthe evolving operational situation
Shared Sensemaking• Key elements of various stakeholder viewpoints
are identified and gaps/inconsistencies identified• Participants reach consensus regarding central
issues along each dimension of battlespace• Participants are able to reconstruct understanding
of operational situation from other viewpoints• A common frame of understanding is reached that
accommodates perspective of each stakeholder• Common frame of understanding provides consistent
path of action for synchronizing effects and outcomes• Participants understand each area of risk/uncertainty
and its potential impact across different actions/effects
Collaboration Process• Availability and participation of expertise are
effectively monitored and adjusted to insure quality of knowledge product
• Tacit understandings are effectively articulatedin explicit, symbolic form for other participants
• Information exchanges effectively transferattentional cues among participants
• Technological, cognitive, social, and organizationalobstacles to participation and exchange are diagnosed and resolved
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DENNIS K. LEEDOM, Ph.D.Evidence Based Research, Inc.1595 Spring Hill Road, Suite 250Vienna, VA [email protected]