Our City Our FutureWorkshop #1 8 February 2018

AGENDA

Timing Item08:00 ARRIVAL08:25 – 08:30 Welcome08:30 – 08:45 Introductions and overview of the workshop purpose and structure

08:45 – 09:30 Climate Change in Dunedin: the science we need to understand

09:30 – 10:00 Presentation of causal maps from questionnaire

10:00 – 10:15 BREAK10:15 – 10:45 Working session #1: Mapping the issues

10:45 – 11:00 Feedback from session #1: Key Issues that will need to be addressed

11:00 – 11:30 Working Session #2 (Using the maps to explore potential actions)

11:30 – 11:45 Feedback from session #2: Key themes to guide next steps

11:45 – 12:15 Next Steps12:15 – 12:30 CLOSING REMARKS

OUR CITY OUR FUTURE: WORKSHOP PURPOSE

The prime purpose of this workshop is to develop an understanding and commitment to a city focus on collective action.

To achieve this we will explore and discuss:i. the climate challenges facing Dunedin,ii. the issues these raise and the consequences for Dunedin of addressing

them successfully or not,iii. why collective action is needed to address them successfully,iv. the benefits that can come from collective action, andv. what would be required to sustain collective action over time.

Presentations: Climate Science and its Implications for Dunedin

1. Change Ahead – Adaptive Planning2. Global & NZ Climate Change Projections3. Natural Hazards in Dunedin City4. The Importance & Challenge of Downsizing5. Possible Futures for Dunedin

Judy LawrenceAndrew Tait

Mike GoldsmithSimon Cox

Chris Cameron

1. Framing the dayJudy Lawrence

Senior Research FellowNZ Climate Change Research Institute

Victoria University of Wellington

Source picture: http://www.ideachampions.com

Sea level rise is happening nowIt will accelerate

It will continue for centuriesIt is foreseeable

Source: PCE 2015

Response after events

Anticipate

Adapt

+Predict and act

Robust across many scenarios

The shift

Different types of impacts

• Slowly emerging impacts• Sea level rise

• Widening climate variability• Drought, increased flood and

coastal storm frequency

• Extremes• Coastal storm surge, intense

rainfall, wind

• Surprises• Accelerated sea level rise

• Combined impacts

• Planning ‒ Regional/district/asset

• Coastal and flood risk • Storm water, waste

water and water supply • Transport and utilities • Finance and insurance• Governance

Climate changes Systems affected

The ‘Goldilocks’ dilemma

What to do?

Not too much or too little

When to do it?

Not too early or too late

Challenges of long-term planning

• Tyranny of the present• Beyond imagining• Plays out a many levels• Others should solve it• Long-term commitment• Agency and community• Who pays?

We need to do both

Changing risk over time ongoing-social and political variability outside experienced range. The future will not be like the past

Adaptive Planning

From reactive adaptation to anticipatory adaptation

Adaptive Pathways Planning

Asks the following questions• Will the option meet the long term

objective?

• Will it increase or decrease exposure to the changing risk?

• What combination of options will give the greatest flexibility?

• What are their side effects?

• What other measures will assist meeting the objectives? (e.g. warning signals and decision triggers, planning controls, information)

•Considers lifetime of actions

• Short-term investment decisions can be made if they don’t close off options for the future

•Explores different pathways for robustness and flexibility as the climate changes

•Defines use-by date of options for change of path decisions

•Monitors triggers to identify change for timely actions

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Communities in a time of change

What is important for a functioning liveable community? How will climate change affect these goals and expectations?

2. Global & NZ Climate Change Projections

Dr Andrew TaitPrincipal Scientist – Climate

National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA)

Global climate changes

NZ climate changes

• Heavy rainfall events are likely to become more intense, by around 8% per °C of warming, meaning future heavy rainfall events are more likely to result in localised flooding.

• Extreme flood peaks for rivers in many parts of the country will increase by 10-20% by 2050, meaning present-day flood protection may be insufficient in the future.

• Present-day droughts are expected to occur two to four times more frequently by the end of the century, particularly for eastern and northern regions.

Floods and droughts

NZ climate change impacts

NZ climate change impacts

• Impacts are mostly associated with the exacerbation of extreme events – e.g. flooding (river), heavy rainfall (wastewater and sewerage), drought (water supply), heatwaves (health).

• Sea-level rise is a crucial issue for most NZ urban areas, associated with coastal inundation, river flooding, drainage and salt-water intrusion into groundwater.

Urban Areas

• Inflows to the main hydro lakes are projected to increase by 5-10% over the next few decades.

• Increasing winter precipitation and snow melt and a shift from snowfall to rainfall will affect the timing of winter/spring hydro lake inflows.

• Climate warming is likely to reduce annual average peak electricity demands by 1-2% per °C across New Zealand, but increased summer peak demand in warmer areas (e.g. from Auckland) will place additional stress on networks at this time of year.

Energy supply and demand

NZ climate change impacts

• Climate change will almost certainly reduce biodiversity.

• On-going impacts of invasive species and habitat loss will dominate climate change signals in the short- to medium-term, but climatic change has the potential to exacerbate these existing stresses.

• The rich biota of the alpine zone is at risk through increasing shrubby growth and loss of herbs, especially if combined with increased establishment of invasive species.

Natural ecosystems

NZ climate change impacts

• Erosion and accretion rates of sandy coasts are likely to be affected by sea-level rise.

• Coastal inundation risk during high tides and storm surge events will increase with sea-level rise.

• For example, with 0.8m sea-level rise, the present-day 1-in-100 year tide level will be exceeded during more than 90% of all high tides.

Coastal environment

NZ climate change impacts

Thanks for your attention

Dr Andrew TaitPrincipal Scientist – Climate

National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA)

3. Natural Hazards in Dunedin CityMichael Goldsmith, RiskSEERS Ltd

Dunedin’s physical environment

Rock and

Pilla

r Ran

ge

Lammerlaw Range

Silver Peaks

• Geology• Geomorphology• Climate• Hydrology• Coastal processes

+ Human life and property = hazard

Flood hazard

Main channel

Coastal hazards:• Shoreline erosion• Storm surge• Tsunami• Groundwater• Changes in sea /

ground level

North Taieri Fault

Maungatua Fault

Akatore

FaultTitri F

ault

Rock and

Pilla

r Ran

ge

Lammerlaw Range

Silver Peaks

Hyde Fault

Taieri Ridge Fault

Billy’s Ridge Fault Land-based hazards:

• Seismic (fault rupture, shaking, liquefaction, lateral spread…)

2015

Land-based hazards:• Landslide / rockfall

Climatic hazards:• Snow• Wind• Drought• Fire

Important natural hazard considerations…

1. Consequences of the hazard critical (as well as the likelihood)

Abbotsford, August 1979

Considerations for managing natural hazards

2. Disruption and economic impact at many levels (individual,

organisation, community)

Fisher & Paykel, April 2006

Considerations for managing natural hazards

3. Consider likelihood of being affected over longer term

Dunedin airport, June 1980

Considerations for managing natural hazards

4. Consider likelihood of being affected by any hazard

Considerations for managing natural hazards

5. Consider cumulative effects (repetitive nature of hazards…)

Henley, May 2012

Henley, July 2007

Summary

• Natural hazards: combination of physical environment, and the social or ‘built’ environment.

• Wide range of natural hazards experienced in Dunedin.

• Some important considerations for managing hazards.

• Additional hazards due to climate change unlikely, but frequency and effects of existing hazards may change.

The importance and challenge of downscaling

Dr Simon CoxPrincipal Scientist, GNS Science, Dunedin

Thinking about differences between global and local natural processesin planning for and mitigating effects of climate change

Downscaling

From probabilistic to deterministic.

Problem from a technical perspective – local processes not always clearly enough understood to provide certainty needed for mitigation or zonation.

Risk involves multiple hazards; there are both temporal (frequency) and spatial uncertainties

System overview

South Dunedin AnalogyLeaky paper cup

Pumps

Stormwater

Contribution runofffrom hill suburbs

Infrastructure

Local processes

Perched water table?

Upwards flow?

Land Motion

Sea Level Rise

Drain

Pump

Create storage

How much groundwater

flow from hills?

Variable water storage

Impermeable

Permeable

Impermeable

Different sediments?

Significant Unknowns (Geological)

3. Nature of sediment infill & hydrogeology (permeability)

4. Is there long-term subsidence and is it sediment compaction or tectonic?

5. Vertical flow of groundwater

Difficult to quantify

1. Volume and effect of hillslope runoff cf. lateral flow

2. Effect of human infrastructure – drains/sewers

Local vs Global processes: Example

Do we know enough already?

Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability

Something that causes harm or

an adverse effect. Has

MAGNITUDEFREQUENCY

Potential for casualty,

destruction, damage,

disruption or other form of

loss

Probability that harm or

adverse effect may occur if/when

exposed to a hazard

SPATIAL REACH?

MULTIPLEHAZARDS?

Need to work with uncertainty- gain local Scientific & Engineering consensus

Alpine Fault Scenario workshop – August

2016

To conclude

“We know enough” to begin organising social and political process, methodology and planning.

There is a void of high-quality, well-defined, holistic scientific information in regard to physical processes and actual vs. perceived local hazards.

The need to corral thinking and develop understanding of processes and their spatial reach is imminent, yet learn to work with uncertainty.

Recommend an expert forum to discuss, evaluate (and vent) the engineering and scientific perspective.

5. Possible Futures for Dunedin

Chris Cameron: Bodeker Scientific, 42 Russell Street, Alexandra 9320

Ph: 03 448 8118www.bodekerscientific.comchris@bodekerscientific.com

What will Dunedin be like:

• If we take no deliberate action?• If we are reactive rather than proactive?• If we act effectively?

“Real progress can only be made with collaborative action, across disciplines and across communities. No one individual or organisation can solve it alone.”

Insurance availability

• Who pays?

• Insurance Dialogue (National Science Challenge)• Insurance scenarios for high-risk urban areas

1. Insurance unavailable 2. Loss of mortgage 3. Forced sale

4. No buyer willing to take on risk

5. Owner walks away

6. House and neighbourhood

become increasingly run down

7. Risk of increased crime, community and social issues

8. Increased chance of pollution,

contamination or other risks

Scenario 1: Deterioration

1. Insurance unavailable 2. Loss of mortgage 3. Forced sale

4. Council / government

consortium buys and relocates house

5. Any profits put into assisting relocation of other residents – e.g.,

funding retirement village

6. Council and private infrastructure

gradually decommissioned /

relocated

7. Streets transitioned from urban to parkland

8. A level of order and structure

maintained in the neighbourhood

Scenario 2: Relocation

Assorted thoughts…

• City focus

• Timeframes• Urgency• Zoning and plans

OPPORTUNIT

Y

…and more

• Affordability

• Operating principles• Collaboration is key

OPPORTUNIT

Y

"Don’t keep calm and carry on – business as usual is not an option.”

Charles Anderson, CEO Sovereign Insurance, NZ

“The best way to predict the future is to create it.”

Dennis Gabor, Nobel prize-winning physicist

chris@bodekerscientific.com

Pre-Workshop Questionnaire: Issues Maps

Dr David Rees

Founding PartnerSynergia Ltd

From Lists to Webs

issue

issue issue

consequence

consequenceconsequence

consequence

consequence

consequence

cause

cause

cause

causecause

action

action action

Key Themes

• Community Buy-in

• Long-Term Plan• Working Together• Understanding Costs• Resistance to Change

Community Buy-In

Long-Term Plan

Working Together

Understanding Costs

Resistance to Change

Working Sessions: (Productive Conversations)

Dr David Rees

Founding PartnerSynergia Ltd

A Common Conversational Pattern(ensuring your are heard)

• “I understand your opinion but…”

• “It’s clear to me….”

• “Yes, but we need to…”

• “A couple of points…”

• “This is my take on the situation.”

‘My idea is’

‘My opinion is’

A Common Conversational Pattern(focusing on your part of the elephant)

• “What I want to look at is…”

• “I’d just like to put something

on the table”

• “I think we need…”

• “My concern is…”

• “I’d like to pick up an issue…”

As a Result

•Lots of ideas get raised, BUT:

•few are really discussed

•many are ignored, (relying on

persistent people to keep raising them)

•lots are lost in the pile!

…and the barking dogs get attended to

•Barking dogsItems that are often urgent, and sometimes important, usually forcefully argued

•Non-barking dogsItems that are important but often not urgent or understood, or articulated well enough

•Sleeping dogsUndiscussable items that no-one is willing or able to talk about or items that simply keep getting dropped or forgotten. These may make it difficult for other items to proceed unless they are addressed

…So, Maybe We Should Value:

•curiosity over opinion

•understanding over self defence

•building community over scoring points

•being truthful over being right

•trusting over doubting

•who we are rather than the role we play

Working Sessions: (Session #1:Exploring the Maps)

Exploring the Maps to Develop Common Ground

• Do they capture the key issues?

• What would you add, delete, modify?• Look at lists of outcomes and causes – would you add any to your map?

Resources:

• The Scientists• Their briefing papers• The Issue maps• List of outcomes from questionnaire• List of causes from questionnaire

Working Sessions: (Session #2 – exploring potential actions)

Exploring Potential Actions

• What items on the map would you want to increase or strengthen

• What items on the map would you want to decrease or weaken• What causal links would you want to strengthen or speed up• What causal links would you want to weaken or slow down

Next Steps:Creating a Sustainable Response

Broad-based Stewardship

SoundStrategy

SustainableFinancing

Requirements for Sustainable Transformation

Stewardship = Leadership

Stewardship means lifting your focus beyond your role and organisational requirements

Stewardship means taking on and accepting the responsibility to shepherd and safeguard the valuables of others

Pathway for Sustainable Change

Central to successful change is:

‘doing good stuff’

AND ‘learning to do good stuff together’

https://www.rethinkhealth.org/tools/stewardship-guide/

Phase 1: Start a Campaign

• The next step will require the launch of a cross-organizational collaboration to address a specific issue that necessitates coordination from multiple organizations

• Focus on a specific issue, that can be addressed within a limited time

• A successful initial campaign is characterized by new, cooperative relationships being forged among leaders from diverse organizations that play a critical role in shaping Dunedin’s approach to climate change

• One of the critical challenges to overcome is forging trust with peer leaders who bring a different mindset and series of motivations to the table

Phase 1: Pitfalls

• Temporary and time-bounded purpose• Project leadership, not stewardship• “We’ve done enough.”• Narrow scope, restricted vision

Consequences: One problem solved, no broader system impact

Phase 1: Momentum Builders

• Conduct a common assessment.

• Convene and launch a team of multi-sector champions• Challenge the status quo• Develop systems thinking among a broad cadre of leaders

Consequences: Well-positioned leaders experience increasing urgency to do more together; initial accomplishments result in determination to do

more together

Moving to Phase 1: Task

Key Questions:

• Do you believe are ready to move to a collaborative campaign• What pitfalls do you anticipate?• What momentum builders are well established?• What role do you see yourself playing?