OTREC April 2011
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Transcript of OTREC April 2011
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DATE April 1, 2011OTREC 2011 Transportation Seminar Series
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: ARE WE IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT?
Presentation by George Beard, Portland State University
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Holding the Horses1
1. FROM MEN, MACHINES, AND MODERN TIMES, ELTING E. MORISON, 1966
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Holding the Horses
More recently, the Vatican announced that 2,000 years after St. Peter wrote the first papal letter, Pope John Paul II's 200-page encyclical was coming out on a computer disk. $5.60 at bookstores everywhere.
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Holding the Horses
Two days later, the U.S. Coast Guard announced that after nearly 100 years of listening for distress calls via human-generated clicks of a telegraph key, it was turning off its Morse code equipment. The reason? A switch to digital hardware.
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Thinking in Time2
What’s known
What’s presumed
What’s unclear
2. THINKING IN TIME: THE USES OF HISTORY FOR DECISION-MAKERS, NEUSTADT & MAY,
1986
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KnownLatest generation of EV passenger vehicles and urban trucks/service vans now for sale
More coming in 2012 and 2013
Limited charging infrastructure at this precise moment, but ...
An explosion is about to hit in Oregon and several other states later this year
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Known
RETC/BETC incentives in Oregon
Uniform building codes in Oregon
Oregon in general (and Portland in particular) rank high on “EV Readiness”
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50 Cities-EV Readiness
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50 Cities-EV Readiness
SOME QUESTIONS
Is the state of ‘readiness’ enough to lead to the achievement of a desired outcome?
If not, can we understand/anticipate other enablers and impediment to change?
To what extent do ‘vestigial’ behavior, culture, or patterns of routine shape social and civic adoption?
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Presumed
RETC/BETC credits will continue
Gas prices will rise !! (??)
We are rational
Most of our fellow Oregonians think like we do
If EVs can’t succeed in Oregon, they won’t succeed at all
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PresumedPrice-performance on batteries will markedly improve in the near term
EV owners will charge (L1/L2) at home most of the time
EV owners will augment their charging at work, if it is available
Many people will convenience charge as they run around
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Presumed
DC fast charging is the antidote to range anxiety
Fuel cell vehicles are still 10-years off
TBD business models will work (even if they haven’t been developed yet)
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Unclear
Will the EV market take off?
If so, how quickly?
What is the customary, practical range of an EV (not its nominal range)?
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UnclearHow much does a battery degrade over time from frequent DC fast charging?
Electric motors are reliable; are EVs over time?
What adoption drivers or impediments will surprise us in the months and years ahead?
Will such surprises ... along with the ‘presumed” and “unclear” EV factors mentioned earlier ... provide a tipping point or a tripping point?
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This much seems obvious
The status quo is not free
EVs are but one element of a portfolio of 21st century mobility approaches that must be crafted and nurtured
The dictum of Louis Pasteur should challenge us to be an innovator and leader: “Fortune favors a prepared mind”.
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And finally ...
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Lessons from MAXEVs are part of a larger, longer transportation electrification effort.
If the adoption of EVs mirror the adoption of MAX, street cars and even aerial trams, we must judge success over 30-years and not just the next three years.
This great and promising enterprise is ultimately about social and civic adoption, not about vehicles!