Osv Outlook Clarksons

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Osv Outlook Clarksons

Transcript of Osv Outlook Clarksons

Overview of the Offshore Supply Vessel Industry

May 2012

ContentsMacro Drivers to Offshore Support Vessel Demand Growth Offshore Support Vessel Industry - OverviewFleet Development and Age Profile Orderbook and Deliveries Demolition (Scrapping) Asset Values OSV to Rig ratio

Regional OutlookUS GoM Latin America West Africa Middle East North Sea Asia Pacific

Market Outlook Disclaimer1

Offshore Support Vessel Demand - Macro Drivers

2

Macro Drivers prompting Offshore Support Vessel DemandOil Consumption vs. GDP Growth% growth6% 5% 3% 2% 0% -2% -3%

WTI Crude Oil PricesUS$ /bbl160 140 120 100 80 60 40

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012E

2013E

20

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

GDP Growth

Oil Demand Growth

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (Aprill 2012)

Source: Bloomberg, EIA - Short Term Energy Outlook (March 2012)

High Energy demand & Oil prices

High E&P Capex

Increasing Offshore activity as onshore fields mature

Robust OSV Demand

Jan-133

E&P Spend by Major Oil and Gas CompaniesTop 10 Global E&P SpendersUS$ million5,000 25,000 45,000 65,000

Petrochina

Exxon Mobil Royal Dutch/Shell Chevron Corp.

Top 10 E&P spenders globally accounted for nearly 44% of the total E&P spending in 2011 All of them are expected to increase capex during 2012, by an average 29%2012E

Petrobras

BP plc

Pemex

Eni Spa

ConocoPhillips

Petronas

2011

4Source: Company filings, Clarkson Capital Markets

Offshore fields to provide increasing share in the global oil supplyGlobal Offshore E&P CapexUS$ billion214 195 173 154 140 113 90 137 137Shallow water CAPEX Deepwater CAPEX

2011E

85%

15%

155

2014E

78%2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E

22%

Shallow water CAPEX Deepwater CAPEX

Exploration trend shifting towards offshore oil fields and away from onshore fields: Offshore oil production contribution expected to grow ~37% by 2018, up from 35% in 2010, driven by contribution from deepwater (water depths >= 600 feet)5Source: Clarkson Capital Markets, Douglas Westwood, The World Deepwater Market Report 2011-2015 (May 2011)

Deepwater Capex to reach new highs - fuelling the demand for OSVsDeepwater Capex by ComponentUS$ billion70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2006 SURF Pipelines 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Subsea Production Drilling Subsea Processing Floating Platf ormMajor proportion constituted by drilling activity

Golden Triangle

Majority of Capex is directed towards Deepwater Activities: Global Deepwater Capex is forecasted to reach $62 billion by 2015 from ~$22 billion in 2010, indicating a CAGR of ~23%, driven by advancement in seismic and drilling technologies Deepwater activity is mainly carried out in the Golden Triangle - West Africa, the US GoM and Brazil6Source: Douglas Westwood, The World Deepwater Market Report 2011-2015 (May 2011)

Exploration Trend - Deeper and DeeperNumber of Offshore Fields 10 25 30 7 8 18 7 14 16 7 39 181 Average Water Depth (feet) 4,970 4,751 3,514 2,054 1,171 761 499 361 230 226 666 1,896 Distance from Shore (km) 156 173 156 63 99 141 149 122 100 38 83 126

Country

Angola U.S. Brazil Nigeria Malaysia Norway Australia United Kingdom India China P.R. Others Total

Majority of the offshore activity is concentrated in the deepwater regions such as: Angola, U.S., Brazil, Nigeria, Malaysia and Norway

7Source: Clarkson Research, The Offshore Oil Market (March 2012)

Significant Hydrocarbon Discoveries in the Deepwater RegionsUS GoM: Big Foot, Water depth 5,330 ft, Chevron, Jack/St. Malo, Water depth 7,042 ft, Chevron Lucius, Water depth 7,168 ft, Anadarko Greater Chinook Area, Water Depth 8,877 ft, Petrobras Gunnison, Water Depth 3,138 ft, Anadarko Auger, Water Depth 2,878 ft, Marathon Oil Europe - North Sea: Greater Norne Area, Water Depth 1,254 ft, Statoil Knarr (Jordbaer), Water Depth 1,320 ft, BG Esperanza, Water Depth 297 ft, BG Erne, Water Depth 5,562 ft, Antrim Ettrick, Water Depth 363 ft, Nexen Asia Pacific: Gajah Baru, Water Depth 271 ft, Premier Oil Chim Sao, Water Depth 380 ft, Premier Oil Benjarong, Water Depth 10,626 ft, Coastal Energy Laverda, Water Depth 2,640 ft, Woodside Janglau, Water Depth 10,761 ft, Lundin

South America: Marlim Leste, Water depth 6,336 ft, Petrobas Barracuda, Water depth 3,630 ft, Petrobas Tupi, Water Depth 7,161 ft, Petrobas Guara Sul, Water Depth 7,065 ft, Petrobas Espadarte, Water Depth 2,805 ft, Petrobas Zaedyus, Water Depth 6,758 ft, Shell Albacora Leste, Water depth 200 ft, BPZ Energy

Africa: Makore, Water Depth 4,646 ft, Kosmos Energy Ten Cluster, Water Depth 3,788 ft, Tullow Narina, Water Depth 3,772 ft, African Petroleum Corp. Independence discovery , Water Depth N/A, Vanco Jupiter, Water Depth 21,335 ft, Anadarko Azul, Water Depth 3,046 ft, Maersk Oil

Offshore Oil Field:- Prospects, Discoveries (Drilled/Appraised), Under Development Fields (2011 April 2012)8Source: SubseaIQ (division of Rigzone), Hornbeck Offshore Investor Presentation (March 2012), Clarkson Capital Markets

Offshore Support Vessel Industry - Overview

9

OSV fleet growing, and growing youngerFleet Development, by number of vessels3,700

At March-end 2012, the total count of OSV2,900 2,100 1,300 500 763 798 832 892 1,026 1,075 1,344 1,155 1,259

fleet stood at 2,967 vessels compared to 2,830 at December-end 2011 Young Fleet: Approx. 70% of the existing fleet is under 20 years of age

969

1,755 1,864 1,927 1,952 1,409 1,609 1,239 939 1,014 1,1182005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E

AHTSSource: MarineBase, Clarkson Capital Markets estimates

PSV

Age Profile, by number of vessels, At March-end 20121,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-39 40+ 517 257 57 65 423 182 161 212,115 vessels