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    NATO official: Bin Laden, deputy hiding in northwest

    Pakistan

    By Barbara Starr, CNN October 18, 2010 -- Updated 1749 GMT (0149 HKT)

    STORY HIGHLIGHTS

    "Nobody in al Qaeda is living in a cave," official says

    The leadership is living in relative comfort, he says

    Bin Laden likely moved around in an area of rugged terrain

    U.S. special envoy says there's nothing new to the report

    Kabul, Afghanistan (CNN) -- Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri

    are believed to be hiding close to each other in houses in northwest Pakistan, but

    are not together, a senior NATO official said.

    "Nobody in al Qaeda is living in a cave," said the official, who declined to benamed because of the sensitivity of the intelligence matters involved.

    Rather, al Qaeda's top leadership is believed to be living in relative comfort,

    protected by locals and some members of the Pakistani intelligence services, the

    official said.

    Pakistan has repeatedly denied protecting members of the al Qaeda leadership.

    The official said the general region where bin Laden is likely to have moved

    around in recent years ranges from the mountainous Chitral area in the far

    northwest near the Chinese border, to the Kurram Valley, which adjoinsAfghanistan's Tora Bora, one of the Taliban strongholds during the U.S. invasion

    in 2001.

    Kabul, Afghanistan (CNN) -- Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri

    are believed to be hiding close to each other in houses in northwest Pakistan, but

    are not together, a senior NATO official said.

    "Nobody in al Qaeda is living in a cave," said the official, who declined to be

    named because of the sensitivity of the intelligence matters involved.

    Rather, al Qaeda's top leadership is believed to be living in relative comfort,protected by locals and some members of the Pakistani intelligence services, the

    official said.

    Pakistan has repeatedly denied protecting members of the al Qaeda leadership.

    The official said the general region where bin Laden is likely to have moved

    around in recent years ranges from the mountainous Chitral area in the far

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    northwest near the Chinese border, to the Kurram Valley, which adjoins

    Afghanistan's Tora Bora, one of the Taliban strongholds during the U.S. invasion

    in 2001.

    NATO Official: Bin Laden in NW Pakistan

    Tora Bora is also the region from which bin Laden is believed to have escapedduring a U.S. bombing raid in late 2001. U.S. officials have long said there havebeen no confirmed sightings of bin Laden or Zawahiri for several years.

    The area that the official described covers hundreds of square miles of some ofthe most rugged terrain in Pakistan, inhabited by fiercely independent tribes.

    The official also confirmed the U.S. assessment that Mullah Omar, the leader ofthe Taliban, has moved between the cities of Quetta and Karachi in Pakistan overthe last several months.

    The official would not discuss how the coalition has come to know any of thisinformation, but he has access to some of the most sensitive information in theNATO alliance.

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    Analysis: The finger is being pointed at Pakistan

    However, Richard Holbrooke, the U.S. special envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan,

    said there was nothing new to what the official was saying.

    "We hardly have a day that goes by where somebody doesn't say they knowwhere Osama bin Laden is," said Holbrooke, who was in Rome, Italy, for a

    conference on Afghanistan.

    Another U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the exact

    locations for bin Laden and Zawahiri are unknown, other than that they are

    "somewhere in the tribal areas of Pakistan near the Afghanistan border."

    "If we knew where he was -- in a house, an apartment, a villa or an underground

    cave or bunker -- we would have gotten him," said the official. "We can't rule out

    he may be in a cave one day and a house in a city on another."

    The official referred to CIA Director Leon Panetta's comment a few months ago

    that the United States has not had any precise information about bin Laden's

    whereabouts for many years.

    "He is, as is obvious, in very deep hiding," Panetta said. "He's in an area of the

    tribal areas of Pakistan that is very difficult."

    As for Pakistan's role, Holbrooke said it was ultimately up to Islamabad to decide

    how to craft its fight against militants.

    "The United States and our allies -- all would encourage them to do as much asthey are able to do," Holbrooke said. "There's been a long discussion about

    whether ... they would go into other parts of the border area. That is for them to

    decide on the basis of their resources."

    Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik said Monday that similar reports of bin

    Laden and Mullah Omar's whereabouts have proven false in the past.

    Malik denied the two men are on Pakistani soil, but said that any information to

    the contrary should be shared with Pakistani officials so that they can take

    "immediate action" to arrest the pair.

    The NATO official, who has day-to-day senior responsibilities for the war, offered

    a potentially grimmer view than what has been publicly offered by others.

    "Every year the insurgency can generate more and more manpower," despite

    coalition military attacks, he said.

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    Although there has been security progress in areas where coalition forces are

    stationed, he said in other areas, "we don't know what's going on."

    He pointed to an internal assessment that there are 500,000 to 1 million

    "disaffected" men between the ages of 15 and 25 in the Afghan-Pakistan border

    region. Most are Afghan Pashtuns, and they make up some of the 95 percent ofthe insurgency who carry out attacks just to earn money, rather than to fight for a

    hard-core Taliban ideology, he said.

    The official said it is now absolutely vital for the Afghan government to address

    the needs of this group with security, economic development and jobs in order

    for the war to end and for Afghanistan to succeed.

    "We are running out of time," he said.

    In recent days, Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, has

    made a number of public statements expressing some optimism about theprogress of the war. Petraeus "doesn't think time is running out, " his

    spokesman, Rear Adm. Gregory Smith, told CNN.

    The NATO official said the entire scenario is made more complex by the fact that

    "there is a huge criminal enterprise" in Afghanistan, dealing in human, drug and

    mineral trafficking. Those crimes are also tied in to the insurgency.

    He acknowledged the overall strategy now is to increase offensive airstrikes and

    ground attacks in order to increase the pressure on the Taliban and insurgent

    groups to come to the negotiating table with the current Afghan government.

    There is a growing sense that many insurgent leaders may be willing to accept

    conditions such as renouncing al Qaeda because they want to come back to

    Afghanistan.

    But, the official cautioned, hard-core Taliban groups such as the Quetta Shura

    run by Mullah Omar, the Haqqanis, the HiG (Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin) and the

    Pakistani Taliban still could potentially muster as many as 30,000 fighters.

    The U.S. continues to face a more localized insurgency in the south. In places like

    Marja and the Helmand River Valley, the majority of the fighters captured arewithin a few miles of their homes.

    The insurgent leader Mullah Abdullah Zakir has increased his strength in the

    south, the official said. He essentially exerts some levels of control and influence

    both in the greater Kandahar region and across the south from Zabul to Farah

    province.

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    The official continued to stress the urgency of getting the Afghan government to

    deal with the multitude of problems it faces.

    Right now, the U.S. war plan approved by President Barack Obama extends

    through 2014, the official said. That is the official document that spells out

    matters such as troop rotation schedules.

    The U.S. military could sustain a war "'indefinitely," the official said. But the goal

    is to achieve reconciliation and allow the Afghan government to function and

    provide security and services to the people.

    Without that, he said, "we will be fighting here forever."

    CNN's Hada Messia in Rome, Italy, and Pam Benson in Washington contributed to this

    report.

    Analysis: NATO points finger at Pakistan

    By Nic Robertson, CNN Senior International Correspondent October 18, 2010 --

    Updated 1759 GMT (0159 HKT)

    Osama bin Laden (left) and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri.

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    STORY HIGHLIGHTS

    Pakistan has its own goals for Afghanistan's future

    NATO statement is partly to pressure Pakistan

    Successful drone attacks in isolated areas are worrying Taliban and al Qaeda

    leaders

    If bin Laden is in urban area, the risk of NATO attack killing innocent people is

    higher

    A senior NATO official says Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri

    are believed to be hiding close to each other in houses in northwest Pakistan.

    CNN's Nic Robertson explains the significance.

    (CNN) -- Why is NATO doing this now?

    A lot of what has been said is common sense and common knowledge among

    officials working in the Afghan theater. What is different is it's a growing pressure

    on Pakistan and its role.

    We had the information before about Osama bin Laden being close to Ayman al-

    Zawahiri, and it's been clear for a while he has not been living in a cave. It is not

    clear yet why a NATO official is saying this now.

    The sense, behind the scenes, is Pakistan is believed to be coming towards the

    negotiating table and behind the Taliban, as it begins to talk to the Afghan

    government.

    Pakistan has its own set of desires for the outcome in Afghanistan -- and they are

    trying to achieve these demands behinds the scenes, we are led to believe, in

    association with the U.S. and Afghanistan.

    It seems hardly surprising that there would be more pressure on Pakistan to

    provide what the U.S. and NATO wants, which is Osama bin Laden to be handed

    over.

    Has the West or NATO done anything like this before?

    Video: NATO Official: Bin Laden in NW Pakistan

    This is the first time in many, many years that the finger has been pointed so

    blatantly at Pakistan. If you look at Bob Woodward's book "Obama's War," one of

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    the things Barack Obama has wanted to do is point the finger at Pakistan and say

    "the problem is there" whether it is terror training camps or home to bin Laden.

    It seems to be part of an effort to put the focus on Pakistan.

    Why is it now thought bin Laden is in a town?Both the Taliban and al Qaeda, in conversations that have been intercepted, are

    saying that the drone strikes on isolated houses are proving quite effective.

    It is clear that this is a worry for the grassroot jihadists and more so for the

    leadership who are less expendable.

    It is safer to be living in a more urban environment because the risk of collateral

    damage -- innocent lives -- is higher.

    We have seen the Taliban moving to Karachi, and Pakistan media has reported

    members of al Qaeda living there also.

    Given the rate of drone attacks, it is no surprise they would feel safer among

    people.

    Why would bin Laden get protection?

    Nobody wants to turn in what many people see as a hero of Islam. These people

    would also not be swayed by reward money.

    There would also be reams of security around bin Laden so few people would

    actually know where he is living.

    Some in the Pakistan intelligence services are believed by some other

    intelligence services as having a very radical Islamist view sympathetic to bin

    Laden.

    What does Pakistan want?

    The Taliban leaders are bargaining chips for Pakistan's goal, which is regional

    security. That includes India having less influence in Afghanistan.

    A more influential India would leave Pakistan feeling surrounded by Indian

    interests.

    Pakistan ultimately wants a stronger, traditional Pashtun government for

    Afghanistan, so that India cannot get a stronger foothold there.

    ISI protecting Osama, Zawahiri in Pakistan

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    October 19th, 2010

    AFP Share Buzz up!Tags: Al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden, attacks, Ayman al-

    Zawahiri, CNN, Nato official, Saudi-born militant, US KABUL, Oct. 18: Al Qaeda

    chief Osama bin Laden is living comfortably in a house in northwest Pakistan

    close to his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, CNN on Monday quoted a Nato official assaying.

    The Saudi-born militant wanted for the September 11 attacks on the United States

    nine years ago was being protected by the local people and some members of

    the Pakistani intelligence services, CNN said. It also said that the Al Qaeda

    number two, the Egyptian-born Zawahiri, was living close to him.

    Nobody in Al Qaeda is living in a cave, the unnamed senior Nato official is

    quoted as saying in a report datelined Kabul. The official also confirmed the US

    assessment that Mullah Omar, the leader of the Taliban, has moved between the

    cities of Quetta and Karachi in Pakistan over the last several months, said the

    report on CNNs website.

    Pakistans mountainous North Waziristan region, which borders Afghanistan, is

    believed to be a vortex of Afghan, Pakistani and Arab militants, and long held to

    be a possible hiding place for bin Laden.

    Meanwhile, Pakistan on Monday rejected the US media reports that bin Laden and

    his deputy Zawahiri, were hiding in its north-western region near the Afghan

    border.

    Stories like this keep on surfacing. Our reaction from day one to such stories is

    clear he is not here, the deputy information minister, Mr Samsam Bokhari,

    told DPA.

    They always say Osama is here but do not tell us exactly where he is located.

    We do not believe in these kinds of stories, he said responding to a story run by

    the CNN on Monday.

    Pakistani authorities have denied they are providing protection for the terror

    mastermind, who has a $25 million bounty on his head. It is a baseless

    assertion, we reject it, a Pakistani foreign ministry official said.

    He said that Pakistani security forces are present in North Waziristan and other

    tribal areas and if they had known that senior Al Qaeda members were nearby,

    we would have taken action immediately.

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    The Nato spokesman said the alliance had no immediate comment. Bin Laden is

    believed to have escaped to the area from Afghanistans Tora Bora region during

    the US-led invasion of late 2001 that unseated the Islamist regime that had given

    him safe haven.