OrientationOrientation Storm-Based Warnings A Presentation for NOAA’s NWS Managers by Warning...
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Transcript of OrientationOrientation Storm-Based Warnings A Presentation for NOAA’s NWS Managers by Warning...
OrientationOrientationOrientationOrientation
Storm-Based WarningsStorm-Based WarningsA Presentation for NOAA’s NWS A Presentation for NOAA’s NWS
ManagersManagersbyby
Warning Decision Training BranchWarning Decision Training Branch
Storm-Based WarningsStorm-Based WarningsA Presentation for NOAA’s NWS A Presentation for NOAA’s NWS
ManagersManagersbyby
Warning Decision Training BranchWarning Decision Training Branch
Here is the Outline of the OrientationHere is the Outline of the OrientationHere is the Outline of the OrientationHere is the Outline of the Orientation
Section 1: Rationale of SBWSection 1: Rationale of SBW
Section 2: Overview of the SBW Training Section 2: Overview of the SBW Training
Section 3: Roles and Responsibilities Section 3: Roles and Responsibilities
Section 4: TimelinesSection 4: Timelines
County-Based Tornado Warnings8 Counties under warning
Almost 1 million people warned
County-Based Tornado Warnings8 Counties under warning
Almost 1 million people warned
• More specific• Increased clarity• Supports newdissemination technology
Section 1: Rationale of SBWsSection 1: Rationale of SBWsSection 1: Rationale of SBWsSection 1: Rationale of SBWs
Three simultaneous tornadoes within
line of severe thunderstorms
Storm-Based Tornado Warnings
70% less area covered~600,000 fewer people warned
Storm-Based Tornado Warnings
70% less area covered~600,000 fewer people warned
A Recent Example of SBW with A Recent Example of SBW with Greater Precision and Lead TimeGreater Precision and Lead TimeA Recent Example of SBW with A Recent Example of SBW with Greater Precision and Lead TimeGreater Precision and Lead Time
Graphics provided by Ken Waters (PRH)
Area Area (sq mi)(sq mi)
Coffee Coffee CountyCounty
680.5680.5
Geneva Geneva CountyCounty
578.9578.9
Combined Combined CountiesCounties
1259.41259.4
PolygonPolygon 363.7363.7
71% Reduction !
Storm-Based Warning for
Enterprise, AL Tornado
March 1, 2007
An Extreme Example ofAn Extreme Example ofFalsely Alarmed AreaFalsely Alarmed Area
An Extreme Example ofAn Extreme Example ofFalsely Alarmed AreaFalsely Alarmed Area
• Look at the size Look at the size of the SVR in of the SVR in southern CAsouthern CA
• SBW will SBW will significantly significantly reduce size of reduce size of warned areawarned area
Delineation Improves FFWsDelineation Improves FFWsDelineation Improves FFWsDelineation Improves FFWs
Graphic DisseminationGraphic Disseminationof Storm-Based Warningsof Storm-Based Warnings
Graphic DisseminationGraphic Disseminationof Storm-Based Warningsof Storm-Based Warnings
Private Sector Use of Storm-Based Private Sector Use of Storm-Based Warnings Increases Warnings Increases
Private Sector Use of Storm-Based Private Sector Use of Storm-Based Warnings Increases Warnings Increases
Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM Cow)
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cow/
What are the Digital Dissemination What are the Digital Dissemination Benefits of SBWs?Benefits of SBWs?
What are the Digital Dissemination What are the Digital Dissemination Benefits of SBWs?Benefits of SBWs?
• Eye to the future of DEAS (Digital Eye to the future of DEAS (Digital Emergency Alert System)Emergency Alert System)
• Public can receive warning info on a variety Public can receive warning info on a variety of digital devicesof digital devices– ComputersComputers– Phones Phones – PDAsPDAs– TVTV– Satellite RadioSatellite Radio
SBW Testing Already UnderwaySBW Testing Already UnderwaySBW Testing Already UnderwaySBW Testing Already Underway
• 23 Offices 23 Offices tested SBW tested SBW ‘05‘05
• Little Little change in change in POD POD
• FAR 10% FAR 10% lowerlower
What’s New with the SBW Product?What’s New with the SBW Product?What’s New with the SBW Product?What’s New with the SBW Product?
• Area hatched is described
by encoded polygon
• Direction of Motion added
• Legacy Dissemination Technology is Legacy Dissemination Technology is County Based County Based – TVTV– NOAA Weather Radio NOAA Weather Radio – EAS Activation (FCC) EAS Activation (FCC) – Siren Systems (local jurisdictional based) Siren Systems (local jurisdictional based)
• Multiple Warnings in One County Multiple Warnings in One County
– Easy To Differentiate Graphically; Easy To Differentiate Graphically; Hard to Describe Hard to Describe VerballyVerbally
– VTEC Event Tracking Number Uniquely Defines VTEC Event Tracking Number Uniquely Defines Multiple Warnings For Parsing Computer ProgramsMultiple Warnings For Parsing Computer Programs
Storm-Based Warning Challenges Storm-Based Warning Challenges Storm-Based Warning Challenges Storm-Based Warning Challenges
• How to convey How to convey uncertainties in uncertainties in Polygons for storm Polygons for storm threat evolutionsthreat evolutions– Deviant movement in Deviant movement in
supercellssupercells– Pulse storms Pulse storms – Flash floodingFlash flooding
Storm-Based Warning Challenges Storm-Based Warning Challenges (cont.)(cont.)
Storm-Based Warning Challenges Storm-Based Warning Challenges (cont.)(cont.)
Challenges for SB WarningsChallenges for SB WarningsCounty Warning Area BoundariesCounty Warning Area Boundaries
Challenges for SB WarningsChallenges for SB WarningsCounty Warning Area BoundariesCounty Warning Area Boundaries
St. Louis CWA
Paducah CWA
Lincoln CWA
Madison
Bond
Clinton
Fayette
Marion
St. Clair
Washington
Randolph
Perry
Jackson
Franklin
Jefferson
Hamilton
WilliamsonSaline
Wayne
Clay
STL
PAH
ILX
Storm-Based Warnings Require New Storm-Based Warnings Require New Set of Performance MeasuresSet of Performance Measures
Storm-Based Warnings Require New Storm-Based Warnings Require New Set of Performance MeasuresSet of Performance Measures
Measure FY06 FY07(new)
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Tornado Warning Accuracy (%) 75 76
Tornado False Alarm Rate (%) 78 75
Tornado Lead Time (min.) 13 13
Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy (%)
67 69 70 70 72 72
Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate (%)
74 72 72 72 70 70
Storm-Based Tornado Lead Time (min.)
11 12 12 12 13 13
Government Performance Results Act (GPRA)Tornado Warning Performance Goals
Government Performance Results Act (GPRA)Tornado Warning Performance Goals
Section 2: Overview of the SBW Section 2: Overview of the SBW TrainingTraining
Section 2: Overview of the SBW Section 2: Overview of the SBW TrainingTraining
“To provide training to all warning forecasters on guidance of issuing effective Storm-Based Warnings”
“To provide training to all warning forecasters on guidance of issuing effective Storm-Based Warnings”
Who Should Take the Training?Who Should Take the Training?Who Should Take the Training?Who Should Take the Training?
• Intended AudienceIntended Audience– NOAA/NWS Forecasters with Convective Weather NOAA/NWS Forecasters with Convective Weather
Warning ResponsibilityWarning Responsibility
• Pre-requisitesPre-requisites– DLOC or WSR-88D Ops Course GraduateDLOC or WSR-88D Ops Course Graduate– Advanced Warning Operations Course (Core and Severe Advanced Warning Operations Course (Core and Severe
Tracks)Tracks)
• Deliverables Deliverables – 2 hours of material on the LMS (and 1 hr of WES training )2 hours of material on the LMS (and 1 hr of WES training )– Printed materials with DVD Printed materials with DVD
What are the Learning Activities?What are the Learning Activities?What are the Learning Activities?What are the Learning Activities?
++
Online Interactive Modules
WES Job Sheets
Training Content DetailsTraining Content DetailsTraining Content DetailsTraining Content Details
• Using Polygons to Using Polygons to identify threat areas for identify threat areas for multiple storm situationsmultiple storm situations– Isolated and multiple SBW Isolated and multiple SBW
TORs in close proximityTORs in close proximity– SBW TORs in linesSBW TORs in lines– Flash flood SBWs (KS Flash flood SBWs (KS
Turnpike Event)Turnpike Event)
Training Content Details (cont.)Training Content Details (cont.)Training Content Details (cont.)Training Content Details (cont.)
• Polygon issuesPolygon issues– CWA boundariesCWA boundaries– Gaps in warningsGaps in warnings– WarnGen limitsWarnGen limits
What are Job Sheets?What are Job Sheets?What are Job Sheets?What are Job Sheets?
• Effective learning applications using mini-WES casesEffective learning applications using mini-WES cases
Section 3: Roles and Section 3: Roles and ResponsibilitiesResponsibilities
Section 3: Roles and Section 3: Roles and ResponsibilitiesResponsibilities
Traditional Assumption for Traditional Assumption for Performance ImprovementPerformance ImprovementTraditional Assumption for Traditional Assumption for Performance ImprovementPerformance Improvement
Training → Learning → Transfer
= Performance
A New Focus on A New Focus on Performance:Performance:A New Focus on A New Focus on Performance:Performance:
Combination
of → Performance → Results
Interventions
What were MIC Supports that Helped What were MIC Supports that Helped Learning and Performance? Learning and Performance?
What were MIC Supports that Helped What were MIC Supports that Helped Learning and Performance? Learning and Performance?
0 20 40 60 80 100
% of Sample
participated in post-mortems
encouraged use
gave reminders to use AWOC
completed tracks
recognized completions
gave positive feedback on fac. skills
provided added time for sims
asked for briefings
Conferred regularly
Arranged for uninterrupted time
Oriented fcsters on AWOC importance
Supports Reported
What Can Management Do to Help What Can Management Do to Help SBWs Succeed?SBWs Succeed?
What Can Management Do to Help What Can Management Do to Help SBWs Succeed?SBWs Succeed?
Ensure 100% training completion for every Ensure 100% training completion for every officeoffice
Work with User Community to prepare for Work with User Community to prepare for Service ChangeService Change
Support improved storm verification Support improved storm verification proceduresprocedures
Require an annual warning skill performance Require an annual warning skill performance assessment (using WES)assessment (using WES)
Section 4: TimelinesSection 4: TimelinesStorm-Based Warning Implementation ScheduleStorm-Based Warning Implementation Schedule
Section 4: TimelinesSection 4: TimelinesStorm-Based Warning Implementation ScheduleStorm-Based Warning Implementation Schedule
F M A M J J A S O N DF M A M J J A S O N D
Forecasters Complete
SBW Training
Training Development
20072007
Oct. 1 Service Change
Pilot test of
training package
OB 8.1 Deploy
New LMS released
OB 8.1 Beta
Who Can Help?Who Can Help?Who Can Help?Who Can Help?
• WDTB Administration (LMS problems, etc.)WDTB Administration (LMS problems, etc.)– 405-573-3321 (Linda Curtis)405-573-3321 (Linda Curtis)
• [email protected] [email protected] – WDTB help on SBW trainingWDTB help on SBW training
• OCWWS SBW Page OCWWS SBW Page
• wdtb.noaa.govwdtb.noaa.gov
Summary and QuestionsSummary and QuestionsSummary and QuestionsSummary and Questions
• SBWs will provide an excellent opportunity SBWs will provide an excellent opportunity for improvement in warning performance for improvement in warning performance
• But…But…
Success Depends on
All of Us!
Success Depends on
All of Us!