Oregon State University Long-Term Ecological Research at the...

YEAR 6 ANNUAL REPORT FOR AWARD # 0823380

Submitted October 2009 Barbara J. Bond; Oregon State University Long-Term Ecological Research at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest (LTER6)

Participant Individuals: CoPrincipal Investigators: Mark E Harmon; Sherri L Johnson, Julia A Jones, Thomas A Spies Senior personnel: Matthew G Betts, Elizabeth Borer, Christopher Daly, Judith Li, Kari O'Connell, Susan Sahnow, Mark Schulze, Eric Seabloom, Theresa Valentine Technician, programmer: Wayne Gibson, Joseph Smith, Frank Schneckenburger, Robert Pabst, Paul Dunnette, Maureen Thompson, Lynn Koehler, Joe Cannon, Joe Cannon, William Gerth, Iris Koski, Jay Sexton, Rob Rankin, SueAnn Bottoms, Keith Olsen, John Moreau, Fred Bierlmaier, Donald Henshaw, Suzanne Remillard, Lina DiGregorio, Greg Downing Graduate students: Sara Frey, Adam Hadley Pre-college teachers: Norie Dimeo-Edigar Partner Organizations: The Nature Conservancy: Collaborative Research

USFS Pacific Northwest Research Station: Financial Support; In-kind Support; Facilities; Collaborative Research; Personnel Exchanges. The Forest Service is a key partner in LTER research at the Andrews Forest. They not only contribute financial support, but also personnel, and senior scientists. The Andrews LTER would not be able to function without this partner! USDA Forest Service: In-kind Support; Facilities; Collaborative Research The management side of the Forest Service through the Willamette National Forest is actively engaged in research in and around the Andrews. Maintenance of roads and buildings is aided by their staff. Long-term experiments are installed and protected with their help and landscape-level studies and application of research results are only possible with their collaboration. Oregon Department of Forestry: Collaborative Research United States Geological Survey: USGS Western Ecological Research Center. Collaborative Research

Andrews Forest LTER6 Annual Report. Year 1. of 20

Other collaborators:

US EPA, Corvallis Laboratory The Ecosystem Center, Marine Biological Laboratory Lewis and Clark College Peninsula College University of Washington National Phenology Network: we have been communicating with Abe Miller-Rushing at NPN. South Dakota State University: Geoffrey Henebry is collaborating on research to compare ground observations of phenology with detection of changes using remote sensing. Portland State University: Marion Dresner is using this project as a template for incorporating phenology into K-12 teacher and student training. Oregon Forest Resources Institute Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board Gray Family Foundation McKenzie Watershed Council National Atmospheric Deposition Program Watershed Sciences

Activities and findings:

General Overview The Andrews LTER program seeks to understand the long-term dynamics of forest and river ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest. We are now completing the first year of the sixth funding cycle for this program (hereafter referred to as “LTER6”). For the past four funding cycles, and continuing in the present funding cycle, the Central Question guiding Andrews LTER research has been: How do land use, natural disturbances, and climate change affect three key sets of ecosystem processes: carbon and nutrient dynamics, biodiversity, and hydrology? In LTER6 we are approaching this question from the perspective of our mountainous landscape, and how this


complex landscape affects the interactions of drivers and responders in the Central Question. We will use this understanding, in addition to the deep knowledge we have gained about our system through past research, to forecast how variability and change in climate and land use may impact future ecosystem states, processes and services. In addition, we are expanding the scope of inquiry by more explicitly considering humans as a part of the ecosystem, following the model of the LTER Network’s ISSE to use ecosystem services as a way to connect the biophysical states and processes of ecosystems to human welfare and behaviors that in turn feedback on ecosystem states and processes. In previous funding cycles of the Andrews LTER, the principal spatial scale of inference for LTER studies was the Andrews Forest and adjacent upper Blue River watershed, an area of 16,000 ha. In LTER6 we are expanding this spatial scale to encompass the entire drainage of the McKenzie River, which includes a continuum of public and private land ownerships and a diversity of interactions between humans and the biophysical landscape. The principal temporal extent of ongoing LTER studies spans the past 500 years and to several centuries projected into the future. In LTER6, core research activities and syntheses have shifted from a disciplinary focus (e.g., climate, hydrology, disturbance), to a set of interdisciplinary studies with linked and overlapping objectives. These are: (1) retrospective analyses, (2) understanding climate dynamics and forecasting future climate in complex terrain, (3) phenology and trophic interactions, (4) water, air, nutrient and carbon cycle processes in small watersheds, (5) the “digital forest” (detailed characterization of the physical and vegetative landscape), and (6) forecasting potential impacts of change in land use and climate on biophysical processes and ecosystem services. In LTER6 we also aim to expand our educational, international, social science, and humanities activities. These are not funded in the core Andrew LTER6 budget, but each has received support through supplements, so they are included in this report. Specific Areas of Activity General Site Activities. In this first year of the sixth funding cycle for the Andrews Forest program, our site paid particular attention to courting new researchers to join our program and to establishing new research activities that will continue through the duration of LTER6. Recognizing that our goals greatly exceed our resources available through the LTER6 grant, we put a great deal of energy into writing and submitting research proposals to expand the scope of work. We also paid close attention to maintaining good communication and collaboration among the principle partners involved in our program: Oregon State University, the Willamette National Forest, and the PNW Forest Research Laboratory. All three groups are facing unprecedented budget challenges, and it is especially important during such times to make sure the partners continue to understand how the partnership helps them achieve their independent goals and leverage their resources. Last year, the Andrews Executive Committee (EC) began a significant “visioning” effort to help guide the future development of our program with a larger scope and over a longer time period than the LTER6 proposal. We conducted a two-day retreat in the fall of 2008 that included three of the four members of our scientific advisory committee (Jill Baron, Cliff Dahm, David Mladenoff; Alan Covich was unable to attend) and a few other key invitees to help craft the


Vision, and we’ve continued to refine it since then. Key components of the Vision are to cultivate a perception of the Andrews community as leaders in providing information and guidance on important policy and decision issues related forests, to serve as a bridge and fulcrum for research and outreach related to climate change, to serve as a model for how to bring together environmental research with the humanities, and to cultivate strong ties between environmental and social science research. Rather than a detailed plan, with mandated activities and metrics, the Vision is designed to serve as a general guide over the next decade or so as we work to keep our program vital, relevant and successful.

Activities in LTEReflections. Engagement of the Andrew Forest LTER program with the humanities (our Long-Term Ecological Reflections program) has continued to grow and build the body of work in the humanities during the first year of LTER6. Four writers completed one-week residencies over the past year, and the works of several of them and earlier writers have been posted on our webpage and published or accepted for publication in literary journals and books. In March 2009 we held a workshop (the Columbia River Quorum in the Columbia River Gorge) to bring together environmental scientists, creative writers, philosophers, and communications specialists to address society’s reticence to deal with climate change (an editorial from this workshop is under consideration by Science). A MS student in Environmental Studies and Creative Writing at University of Oregon completed his thesis titled The Contribution of Reflective Writing to Ecological Awareness, based on the Reflections program (posted on the webpage). Leaders of the Reflections participated in workshop to encourage the development of Reflections-like programs at two sites (Sitka Center for Art and Ecology within the Cascade Head Experimental Forest (OR) and Short-Grass Steppe LTER site (CO)) and organized a workshop at the 2009 All-Scientists Meeting on engagement of the humanities and arts at LTER sites. These activities set the stage for NSF supplemental funding to four sites to engage the arts and humanities in consideration of future land change scenarios. We are also on the brink of bringing music into the forest at the same time that acoustical ecology is getting underway as part of LTER6 science.

Strengthening communications with partners. Over the past year we continued to work to enhance the awareness and support of the Andrews Forest program, especially among partner institutions (OSU, the PNW Research Station and the Willamette National Forest). The Partner’s Advisory Board, whose membership includes seven college deans, the supervisor and regional forester for the Willamette National Forest, and the Station Director and Ecosystems Program Leader of the PNW Research Station, met for the fourth time in April 2008. This has become a very important forum for communication. Progress on the Andrews book. A draft of the Andrews book for the LTER Series with Oxford Press. is posted online: http://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/webmast/hjabook/hjabook.cfm?next=main


http://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/research/related/writers/writings/hoshaw2.pdf

http://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/research/related/writers/writings/hoshaw2.pdf

http://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/webmast/hjabook/hjabook.cfm?next=main

All major chapters have been through revisions and we are working on standardizing figures and graphics. The next step is to send out the book for comments from outside reviewers and once those are back and addressed, we will submit it to Oxford.

Infrastructure. In 2008 we were funded by NSF’s Field Stations and Marine Laboratories program to improve our site’s infrastructure for research and education. In late 2008 we purchased a new 4-person SnoCat vehicle that has already been used extensively for graduate student research projects, ongoing climate and hydrological data collection and management, and a field course in snow hydrology. With another component of this funding we are building a network of towers that will permit wireless data communications between the Headquarters and remote areas of our site. Permitting for tower sites is now complete, sites have been cleared, and tower hardware has been purchased. Tower construction will begin very soon. Inter-site activities. Our site is involved in at least two of the multi-site initiatives that are forming to support the ISSE, and we expect that representatives from the Andrews will be involved in writing proposals for the Disappearing Cryosphere initiative (led by Hugh Ducklow) and the Scenarios of Land Use Change initiative (led by David Foster). Money from this year’s supplement has also allowed us to recruit a new social scientist to the Andrews team of scientists: Hannah Gosnell. Hannah is participating in the MALS (Maps and Locals) project. We are deeply appreciative of this supplement funding and the fact that it has stimulated in Hannah a strong interest in further work with the Andrews LTER. Besides these three new projects we continue to be involved in many other on-going intersite projects and LNO sponsored workshops including EcoTrends Biogeochem synthesis. Research Activities. Retrospective analyses. We are conducting analyses of long-term records within and around the Andrews Forest LTER to detect long-term trends and variability in key variables: precipitation, air temperature, soil temperature, snow depth, precipitation chemistry, streamflow chemistry.

Understanding climate dynamics and forecasting future climate in complex terrain. The past year’s research activities have focused on understanding the spatio-temporal relationships of the climate of the Andrews Forest. The unique historical database of climate observations in a variety of elevations and topographic positions has allowed us to make some significant first steps in understanding the complexity of the spatial and temporal patterns of climate in mountainous regions. The result is a manuscript that has been accepted for publication in the International Journal of Climatology.

Rationale: General circulation models are widely used to simulate future climate changes at global and regional scales, but how these changes might manifest themselves locally is not well understood. Current methods for downscaling from regional to local scales produce a high degree of regional coherence, i.e., local climate change is closely coupled to regional change. While most climatologists would agree that this depiction is oversimplified, the causes of variability in coupling between regional and local climate have never been quantified.


Understanding these causes is important because biodiversity and ecological impacts are partly determined by spatial and temporal variability in microclimate. The impacts of regional mean global warming on ecosystems may be amplified or diminished depending on the degree of coupling between regional and local climates.

Phenology and trophic interactions. In the first year of the project, the majority of the effort was dedicated to planning and set up of long-term plots for plant, insect and bird phenology monitoring. Sixteen ‘core’ sites were established across elevation, topographic and vegetation gradients building on existing long term vegetation plots. Other sites were selected using new LiDAR vegetation and DEM maps to sample gaps in existing gradients. Digital temperature sensors were installed in new locations; long-term vegetation plots already had thermistors for air temperature. Intensive weekly observations of up to 20 representative plant species at each core site were initiated prior to snow melt. Insect sampling using malaise traps and aquatic emergence traps were also focused on these sites. Bird censuses, employing both weekly point counts and hourly digital recorders (Songmeters), were conducted in core sites. Extensive point count sampling of birds occurred every 10 days across a total of 180 points. Monitoring of all taxa continued on a regular schedule from plot establishment in April/May through the spring leaf-out/emergence/breeding seasons (end of June mid-July). During the fall and winter the insect collections are being processed in the lab and phenology and songbird point count data are being analyzed. Project ornithologists are working with engineers and computer scientists to develop and fine-tune species-level song recognition software, which will allow for automated analysis of the more than 4 terabytes of digital recordings collected throughout the breeding season.

Water, air, nutrient and carbon cycle processes in small watersheds. In 2008/2009 the primary goal was to establish infrastructure, an information base and new measurements to proceed to develop the project in the coming years. Major activities included:

• Routing of line power to the base of Watershed 1, which will allow the use of instruments that could not be deployed in the field otherwise.

• Purchase, initial testing and deployment of two sophisticated, field-durable isotope analyzers. (Funds to purchase these instruments, manufactured by Picarro Inc., were provided by the Research Office of Oregon State University). One of these instruments continuously measures stable isotopes of H and O in water in addition to water vapor concentration; the other continuously measures stable isotopes of C in atmospheric CO2, in addition to concentration of atmospheric CO2. Both instruments were deployed at watershed 1 in September 2009.

• In collaboration with the “Digital Forest” project – using LIDAR to characterize vegetation patterns at fine scales in WS1 and use of this information to select locations for monthly litterfall collection. These data will be used along with data from long-term vegetation re-measurement plots to characterize patterns of above-ground net primary productivity at fine spatial scales in the watershed.


• Bob McKane (EPA Laboratory in Corvallis) and Marc Stieglitz at (Georgia Institute of Technology) Stieglitz are developing an ecohydrological model (VELMA: Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessments) that functions at multiple scales. In collaboration with Judy Cushing (Evergreen State College, WA), the model output is being used as a basis for visualizations to better understand and communicate about watershed processes. McKane and Stieglitz conducted initial runs and visualizations of the VELMA model to predict spatial and temporal variation in soil moisture in addition to streamflow and stream chemistry from WS1. This model will be critical in addressing the scaling and biogeochemical questions posed by the small watershed project.

The “Digital Forest”

• Collection and processing of LIDAR data October—December 2008. • Development of bare earth model and several vegetation attribute models including

height, cover by height, and composition (hardwood/conifer) for watershed 1 and several other locations in Andrews.

• GPS ground plots in watershed 1 and other reference stands to link with LiDAR data for building vegetation models

• Development of models to predict vegetation cover, biomass, basal area, and leaf area for watershed 1.

Forecasting potential impacts of change in land use and climate on biophysical processes and ecosystem services.

One major activity involved creation of a landscape-level model of forest carbon dynamics that is consistent with our stand-level (“Stand Carb”) model. This has posed a major challenge, but we have been successful. The landscape model contains all the same pools and processes as the stand-level model. The difference is the degree of detail in which processes are considered. Comparisons of the two models are quite promising. We are now applying the model to several analyses to assess the impact of conversion of forests to biomass energy plantations, assessing the recent trends in carbon stores and fluxes in Oregon’s forests, and assessing alternative management scenarios for western Oregon’s forests including natural fire regimes, fire suppression, conversion to intensively managed plantations, the current Northwest Forest Plan, and several conservation-based systems.

Another major activity emerged from new collaborations with Bob McKane at the EPA Laboratory in Corvallis and Marc Stieglitz at the Georgia Institute of Technology. Stieglitz, McKane and their colleagues are developing an ecohydrological model (VELMA: Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessments) that functions at multiple scales, and they are applying the model to individual watersheds as well as the entire Andrews site to investigate potential impacts of different land use scenarios on ecosystem services. This is a fundamental goal of LTER6, and so the collaboration is extremely valuable to us.


Schoolyard LTER:

The Andrews Forest LTER Program has teamed up with the Oregon Natural Resources Education (ONRE) Program to connect Oregon K-12 educators with Andrews Forest LTER research. The main activity of the partnership is the Teachers as Researchers project. The overall goal of the project is to increase teachers’ understanding of environmental science research and to expand their capacity to design relevant field-based science inquiry projects for their students.

In 2008, 13 high school teachers from around Oregon participated in the project, which began with a 2-day workshop at the Andrews Forest. This workshop was the first in a series of three workshops connecting teachers to researchers, and the foundation for subsequent workshops. In April of 2009, seven of the 2008 participants engaged with veteran teachers, former Andrews Forest RETs, and Andrews scientists in a workshop that focused on management of student-collected ecological data.

Through funding from the Andrews Schoolyard LTER supplement, the Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board, and the Gray Family Foundation, 18 high school teachers from around Oregon will participate in the Teachers as Researchers project with a watershed focus for 2009-10.

Findings: Retrospective analyses.

a. CLIMATE, SNOWPACK AND STREAMFLOW. Snowpack and streamflow have been measured in small (9 to 100 ha) and large (60 km2) watersheds in the western Cascades of Oregon since 1925 (snow) and 1950 (streamflow), providing an opportunity to examine long-term trends in streamflow and their relationship to snowpacks. We examined long-term trends in monthly streamflow, precipitation, temperature, and snowpack from transient snow zone (400-700 m), the transient to seasonal snow zone (500-1000 m) and the seasonal snow zone (800-1200 m) at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest and four Snotel sites (Santiam Jct, Hogg Pass, McKenzie, and Three Creeks Meadow, 1000-1400m) in the nearby Oregon Cascade Range over the period 1925 (snow) or 1950 (streamflow) to 2008.

Spring streamflow has declined over the past 50 years in small watersheds. The annual runoff ratio, annual baseflow, annual runoff ratio, and spring (March to May) runoff ratios have declined significantly in transient and seasonal snow zones. Streamflow in other seasons has not changed significantly. Declines in spring streamflow are steepest in the seasonal snow zone, with runoff ratios declining from 1.1 to about 0.7 over the 40-year period of record. Air temperatures in January, March, and April have increased by approximately 2°C since 1958. Controlling for the effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a measure of sea surface temperature, and month, snow water equivalent declined significantly 1930-2007 by an annual


rate of 0.5 to 1% of average snowpack in Jan-May from at Santiam Jct and Three Creeks Meadow, but not at McKenzie or Hogg Pass.

Alternative explanations for these trends include climate warming effects on evapotranspiration, climate warming effects on snowmelt, and cyclical ocean temperature effects on snow accumulation and melt. PDO explains about half of interannual variation in snow water equivalent (swe) at the five snow sites. At the four western Cascades sites, swe varies by 100 to 200 mm for every unit of PDO.

Contrary to model-based predictions, changes in air temperatures are occurring mostly in winter and spring, rather than in summer. Also contrary to model-based predictions, changes in air temperatures and snowpacks have not led to increases in winter streamflows or to declining summer flows at this site. The future response of water yield to changing climate will depend on ocean temperatures and forest water use response to altered snow inputs.

b. SMALL WATERSHED PRECIPITATION AND STREAM CHEMISTRY. Forty-year records of inputs and outputs from eight small watersheds in the Andrews Forest illustrate some particular, and general principles about atmospheric, biological, geophysical, and anthropogenic influences on watershed function. Atmospheric inputs to Andrews Forest watersheds are quite pristine, because of the proximity to marine sources, ocean-derived air masses, and relatively low anthropogenic pollution. Nevertheless, changes in land use over the past 50 years, especially reductions in late-summer field burning and declines in logging especially on federal land (since 1990) are associated with dramatic reductions in atmospheric dust inputs. An exception is the increase since the late 1960s in nitrate deposition, associated with increased population and automobile traffic in the area. The deeply weathered volcanically derived soil parent materials are rich sources of dissolved materials, so watershed outputs are much larger than, and for the most part insensitive to, atmospheric inputs. However, the small watersheds retain nitrogen, with even lower outputs than inputs. Forests in three “reference” watersheds have been relatively undisturbed by recent vegetation modification for hundreds of years, and have adapted to wildfire and floods over hundreds of years, while forests in three other watersheds have been significantly modified by clearcutting and road construction in the past 50 years. Clearcutting, logging, burning, and road construction have had relatively small and short-lived effects on biogeochemistry of the streams, even though sediment delivery, mass movements, and annual streamflow have been persistently elevated since clearcutting.


Understanding climate dynamics and forecasting future climate in complex terrain.

We showed that the influence of synoptic flow patterns on air temperature in a mountainous environment is highly variable spatially and temporally, even among locations only a few kilometers apart. We demonstrated that, if future regional temperature changes are accompanied by changes in the frequency distribution of synoptic circulation patterns, local temperature responses could diverge widely between very closely-spaced locations. There is ample evidence that cold air drainage and atmospheric decoupling occur worldwide, even in the subtropics and in very gentle terrain. Therefore, topographically-induced climate decoupling is likely to be of global importance in understanding the ecological implications of climate change.

We found that, at hill slope and ridge top locations, temperatures were highly responsive to changes in synoptic air flow patterns at the 700hPa level (about 3000m), while in valley bottoms, cold air drainage and pooling dampened the response to those flow patterns. The result was a complex temperature landscape composed of steep gradients in temporal variation, controlled largely by gradients in elevation and topographic position. When an assumed regional warming was combined with changes in the frequency distribution of synoptic circulation, modeled local temperature changes diverged widely between very closely-spaced locations. In our analysis, assuming a simulated 2.5°C regional temperature increase by the year 2100, changes in the future frequency of cyclonic and anticyclonic conditions caused the local temperature to vary by up to 8°C. Sensitivity tests suggest that the magnitude of this divergence might equal or exceed that of the imposed regional temperature change (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Estimated spatial distribution of December maximum temperature response to a 2.5ºC regional temperature increase and a 10-day increase in the number of anticyclonic days compared to cyclonic days across the HJA (outlined in black) (C. Daly, Unpublished). Maximum temperature response was modeled with multiple regression for twelve stations (shown on map) using elevation and local topographic position as explanatory variables. Intricate patterns of elevation and topographic position create steep response gradients across the landscape.

Phenology and trophic interactions. We are documenting timing of species activities and distribution across the Andrews. A number of insect and bird species not formerly noted within the Andrews have been documented. We will not be able to synthesize timing, trends and linkages among trophic levels until field data have been thoroughly analyzed, and many of the questions we are addressing will require three or more years of data collection. However, even in the initial stages of this project some interesting patterns have emerged. As expected, plant phenology, in particular leaf-out and herbaceous emergence, was highly variable spatially. Beyond expected differences with elevation and aspect, which were as great as a full month for leaf-out of some species, there was obvious microsite variation at the scale of tens of meters.


Water, air, nutrient and carbon cycle processes in small watersheds. Initial data from the two Picarro isotope instruments are intriguing and exciting, and they are generating additional research questions. An interesting finding from the water vapor measurements is that there is a profound diel cycle in H and O isotopes of water vapor, and there appears to be a diel hysteresis loop in the relationship between the two isotopes, indicating changes in the relative contribution of evaporated water in water vapor of the canopy air space over a 24 hour period. However, at this time the cycle does not appear to be related to temperature maxima and minima. We will continue to explore these relationships.

Initial runs of the VELMA model, and collaborations with Judy Cushing to visualize the output for this model, for WS1 are very encouraging (Figure 2). In the coming year we will be calibrating and validating model predictions with a network of soil moisture sensors that are already installed in the watershed.

Figure 2. A visualization (by Cushing et al.) of three-dimensional variation in soil moisture in Watershed 1 on a single day in 2006 predicted by VELMA In addition to soil moisture, the model provides estimates of net gas exchange by vegetation and stream chemistry (DOC, DIN and DON) on daily scales.

The “Digital Forest” (detailed characterization of the physical and vegetative landscape)

LiDAR can give us valuable spatial information about terrain, geomorphic processes, and structure and composition of forest canopies. For example the terrain data can be used to locate historical earth flows and the vegetation data could be used to map radiation patterns associated with canopy gaps. This type of information is not available through any other means. LiDAR provides a powerful tool for studying linkages between forest structure and ecosystem processes (e.g., it provides a basis for modeling with VELMA, described above).

Forecasting potential impacts of change in land use and climate on biophysical processes and ecosystem services.

We are in the process of evaluating output from the landscape-level model of forest carbon dynamics. However, preliminary results indicate that conversion of older forests to biomass energy plantations creates a carbon deficient that may take centuries to pay off. Of the many alternative forms of management for western Oregon forests, conversion to intensive plantation forests will store the least carbon. The current Northwest Forest Plan appears to be increasing carbon stores on Federal lands, increasing stores over the intensive plantation system by almost 35% (Figure 3).


Figure 3. Simulated changes in total forest carbon stores in western Oregon forests in response to different management scenarios. The vertical line indicates 1992, the year the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) went into effect. The horizontal lines indicate the average for the scenarios yielding the highest and lowest average carbon store in forests.

The VELMA model was used to compare three land use scenarios for the 64 km2 Andrews Forest basin: Old growth vegetation for the entire area, clear cut of the entire area, and actual land use (45% harvest, 55% old growth). While the two “complete” scenarios are unrealistic, they provide a context for future, more subtle analyses. The predicted impacts of these three scenarios are shown in Figure 4.

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All Old-Growth All Clearcut Present Land Cover(historical condition) (hypothetical) (~45% harvested, 55% old-growth)

Ecosystem Service Trade-offs for 3 Alternative Land UsesVELMA Simulations for H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon

* Biophysical values for a given service (e.g., Mg carbon sequestered per hectare per year) are normalized with respect to the maximum positive value across land use categories.

‡ Greenhouse gases include CO2 and N2O, where N2O is expressed in CO2 equivalents for radiative forcing (N2O x 300 = CO2 equivalents in moles). Thus, the purple columns reflect the normalized total radiative forcing for CO2 and N2O.

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Timber Production

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All Old-Growth All Clearcut Present Land Cover(historical condition) (hypothetical) (~45% harvested, 55% old-growth)

Ecosystem Service Trade-offs for 3 Alternative Land UsesVELMA Simulations for H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon

* Biophysical values for a given service (e.g., Mg carbon sequestered per hectare per year) are normalized with respect to the maximum positive value across land use categories.

‡ Greenhouse gases include CO2 and N2O, where N2O is expressed in CO2 equivalents for radiative forcing (N2O x 300 = CO2 equivalents in moles). Thus, the purple columns reflect the normalized total radiative forcing for CO2 and N2O.

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Timber Production

Ecosystem Carbon Stocks

Carbon Sequestration (+ or –)

GH Gas‡ Sink (+) or Source (–)

Stream Discharge

Stream Nitrogen Load

Habitat & Biodiversity(link to HEXSIM in progress)

Figure 4. Trade-offs in ecosystem services associated with three land use scenarios projected by the VELMA model.

Schoolyard LTER. The 2008 Teachers as Researchers project engaged 13 Oregon high school teachers (reaching over 1,700 students). Of the thirteen teachers, five were from small rural schools, one an urban intercity school, and one an alternative school.

Project success as measured through summary project evaluations, teacher reflection papers, and a four-month follow-up survey reflected the immediate impact and effectiveness of this project. The project engaged teachers with researchers to increase their content knowledge and enthusiasm, as well as helped create valuable professional relationships that will serve as resources for participants for years. A majority (9) of the participants engaged their students in field-based science inquiry projects in their local communities during the timeframe of the project and the rest of the participants had plans and intent to implement projects with their students.


Training and Development: • In the retrospective analyses project, Kathleen Moore, MS student, learned use of Matlab for

analysis of daily temporal trends. • The phenology project involved four graduate students in the design and implementation of

sampling systems for bird phenology as well as OSU faculty research assistants and PNW field technicians. In future years we plan to involve a similar number of graduate students and to provide research experience for two undergraduate students each year.

Outreach Activities: • In 2008/2009 there were more than 1,000 visitors to the Andrews Forest and 63 different

outreach events. • Early findings from the Retrospective Analyses research were presented to the

o Willamette National Forest in Springfield, OR, November, 2008 o AGU meeting, San Francisco, December 2008 o US Geological Survey, Water Resources Division in Portland OR, in June 2009 o Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Corvallis OR, June 2009 o Chapman conference on Ecohydrology, October 2009

• Findings from the Andrews Forest research were shared through these outlets:

o Andrews Forest Newsletter, spring 2009. 'Hidden climate variability at the Andrews Forest'. http://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/pubs/newsletter.cfm?topnav=170

o HJA Day at the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest 'Climate change investigations at the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest.

• The Phenology project is working with teacher training programs through Portland State

University and the Oregon Natural Resources Education program to incorporate phenology into the K-12 curriculum in schools within the region. In June 2009, we trained 12 Portland area teachers in field methods, and helped them think about adapting phenology research to local forests and even the schoolyard. We have incorporated the phenology research into field tours and presentations on research at HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, which reach approximately 2,000 people each year, including students, land managers and the general public. We have also joined the National Phenology Network.

• The LIDAR work has been presented at the HJ Andrews Annual Symposium and at the 2009

LTER All Scientist Meeting. The data are available on the Andrews website. • Dr. Harmon prepared and delivered testimony to Congress and made numerous public

presentations on the topic of forest carbon. He has also participated in an ESA issues paper on the topic of forest carbon management.


http://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/pubs/newsletter.cfm?topnav=170

• In separate meetings, both Dr. Bond and Dr. Thomas met with fire specialists from the Willamette National Forest to discuss implications of Andrews research on cold air drainage to fire fighting and control.

• Dr. Bond met with planners from the city of Portland to discuss their carbon emissions

program and potentials for urban-rural partnerships in carbon management.

Journal Publications:

Adair, E. Carol; Parton, William J.; Del Grosso, Steven J.; Silver, Whendee L.; Harmon, Mark E.; Hall, Sonia A.; Burke, Ingrid C.; Hart, Stephen C., "Simple three-pool model accurately describes patterns of long-term litter decomposition in diverse climates", Global Change Biology, vol. 14, (2008), p. 2636-2660.

Austin, Amy T.. "Planning for connections in the long-term in Patagonia", New Phytologist, vol. 182, (2009), p. 299-302.

Benson, Barbara J.; Bond, Barbara J.; Hamilton, Michael P.; Monson, Russell K.; Han, Richard. "Perspectives on next-generation technology for environmental sensor networks", Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, vol. , (2009), p. doi:10.18.

Boyle-Yarwood, Stephanie A.; Bottomley, Peter J.; Myrold, David D.. "Community composition of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria and archaea in soils under stands of red alder and Douglas fir in Oregon", Environmental Microbiology, vol. 10, (2008), p. 2956-2965.

Compagnoni, Aldo; Halpern, Charles B.. "Properties of native plant communities do not determine exotic success during early forest succession", Ecography, vol. 32, (2009), p. 449-458.

Giesen, T. W.; Perakis, S. S.; Cromack, K. Jr.. "Four centuries of soil carbon and nitrogen change after stand-replacing fire in a forest landscape in the western Cascade Range of Oregon", Canadian Journal of Forest Research, vol. 38, (2008), p. 2455-2464.

Griffiths, R. P.; Madritch, M. D.; Swanson, A. K.. "The effects of topography on forest soil characteristics in the Oregon Cascade Mountains (USA): implications for the effects of climate change on soil properties", Forest Ecology and Management, vol. 257, (2009), p. 1-7.

Harmon, Mark E.; Moreno, Adam; Domingo, James B.. "Effects of partial harvest on the carbon stores in Douglas-fir/western hemlock forests: a simulation study", Ecosystems, vol. 12, (2009), p. 777-791.

Harmon, Mark E.; Silver, Whendee L.; Fasth, Becky; Chen, Hua; Burke, Ingrid C.; Parton, William J.; Hart, Stephen C.; Currie, William S.; Lidet,. "Long-term patterns of mass loss during the decomposition of leaf and fine root litter: an intersite comparison", Global Change Biology, vol. 15, (2009), p. 1320-1338.

Hodder, Janet. "What are undergraduates doing at biological field stations and marine laboratories", BioScience, vol. 59, (2009), p. 666-672.

Jones, J. A.; Achterman, G. L.; Augustine, L. A.; Creed, I. F.; Ffolliott, P. F.; MacDonald, L.; Wemple, B. C.. "Hydrologic effects of a changing forested landscape--challenges for the hydrological


sciences", Hydrological Processes, vol. 23, (2009), p. 2699-2704.

Kageyama, Stacie A.; Posavatz, Nancy Ritchie; Waterstripe, Kirk E.; Jones, Sarah J.; Bottomley, Peter J.; Cromack, Kermit, Jr.; Myrold, David D.. "Fungal and bacterial communities across meadow-forest ecotones in the western Cascades of Oregon", Canadian Journal of Forest Research, vol. 38, (2008), p. 1053-1060.

Kane, E. S.; Betts, E. F.; Burgin, A. J.; Clilverd, H. M.; Crenshaw, C. L.; Fellman, J. B.; Myers-Smith, I. H.;O, "Precipitation control over inorganic nitrogen import--export budgets across watersheds: a synthesis of long-term ecological research", Ecohydrology, vol. 1, (2008), p. 105-117.

Keane, Robert E.; Hessburg, Paul F.; Landres, Peter B.; Swanson, Fred J.. "The use of historical range and variability (HRV) in landscape management", Forest Ecology and Management, vol. 258, (2009), p. 1025-1037.

Manzoni, Stefano; Jackson, Robert B.; Trofymow, John A.; Porporato, Amilcare. "The global stoichiometry of litter nitrogen mineralization", Science, vol. 321, (2008)

Michener, William K.; Bildstein, Keith L.; McKee, Arthur; Parmenter, Robert R.; Hargrove, William W.; McClearn, Deedra; Stromberg, Mark. "Biological field stations: research legacies and sites for serendipity", BioScience, vol. 59, (2009), p. 300-310.

Mitchell, Stephen R.; Harmon, Mark E.;O, "Forest fuel reduction alters fire severity and long-term carbon storage in three Pacific Northwest ecosystems", Ecological Applications, vol. 19, (2009), p. 643-655.

Pennisi, Elizabeth. "Western U.S. forests suffer death by degrees", Science, vol. 323, (2009), p. 447.

Perkins, Reed M.;J ones, Julia A.. "Climate variability, snow, and physiographic controls on storm hydrographs in small forested basins, western Cascades, Oregon", Hydrological Processes, vol. 22, (2008), p. 4949-4964.

Pypker, T. G.; Hauck, M.; Sulzman, E. W.;M. H.; Mix, A. C.; Kayler, Z.; Conklin, D.; Kennedy, A. M.; Barnard, H. R.; Phillips, C.; Bond, B. J.. "Toward using d13C of ecosystem respiration to monitor canopy physiology in complex terrain", Oecologia, vol. 158, (2008), p. 399-410.

Sexton, Jay M.; Harmon, Mark E.. "Water dynamics in conifer logs in early stages of decay in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A", Northwest Science, vol. 83, (2009), p. 131-139.

Swanson, Frederick J.; Goodrich, Charles; Moore, Kathleen Dean. "Bridging boundaries: scientists, creative writers, and the long view of the forest", Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, vol. 6, (2008), p. 449-504.

Takaoka, S.. "Developing ESD (Education for Sustainable Development) from a local perspective: a case study of forest management in the Pacific Northwest region of USA", Chiri, vol. 53, (2008),

Takaoka, Sadao;Swanson, Frederick J.. "Change in extent of meadows and shrub fields in the central western Cascade Range, Oregon", Professional Geographer, vol. 60, (2008), p. 1-14.

van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Byrne, John C.; Daniels, Lori D.; Franklin, Jerry


F.;lÇ¸, Peter Z.; Harmon, Mark E.; Larson, Andrew J.; Smith, Jeremy M.;Taylor, Alan H.; Veblen, Thomas T.. "Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the western United States", Science, vol. 323, (2009)

Van Verseveld, Willem J.; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.; Lajtha, Kate. "The role of hillslope hydrology in controlling nutrient loss", Journal of Hydrology, vol. 367, (2009), p. 177-187.

Daly, C. D.R. Conklin, and M.H. Unsworth. "Local atmospheric decoupling in complex topography alters climate change impacts.", International Journal of Climatology, vol. , (2009), Accepted

Books or other one-time publicationss:

Argo, K.L., "The relation of precipitation and annual tree-ring growth of Douglas-fir in stands of different ages in the western Oregon Cascade Range." bibl. University of Oregon. 33 p. B.S. thesis., (2007). Thesis

Barnard, H.R., "Inter-relationships of vegetation, hydrology and micro-climate in a young, Douglas-fir forest." , bibl. Oregon State University. 126 p. Ph.D. dissertation., (2009). Thesis

Hoshaw, R.M., "The contribution of reflective writing to ecological awareness at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest." , bibl. University of Oregon. 94 p. M.S. thesis. Eugene, OR, (2009). Thesis

Johnson, K.N.; Swanson, F.J., "Historical context of old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest--policy, practices, and competing worldviews." , bibl. Washington, DC: Covelo, CA: Island Press: 12-28. Chapter 2., (2009). Book of Collection: Spies, T.A.; Duncan, S.L., "Old growth in a new world: a Pacific Northwest icon reexamined."

Swanson, F.J.; Chapin, F.S. III., "Forest systems: living with long-term change." , bibl. New York, NY: Springer: 149-170., (2009). Book of Collection: Chapin, F.S. III; Kofinas, G.P.; Folke, C., "Principles of ecosystem stewardship: resilience-based natural resource management in a changing world."

Sherman, L., "Wired watershed: fiberoptics bring new precision to ecosystem sensing." , bibl. Corvallis, OR: Oregon State University 4: 1:18-20., (2009). University Research Magazine of Collection: , "Terra"

Sherman, L., "Wired watershed: fiberoptics bring new precision to ecosystem sensing." , bibl. Corvallis, OR: Oregon State University 4: 1:18-20., (2009). University Research Magazine of Collection: , "Terra"

Shindler, B.; Mallon, A.L., "Public acceptance of disturbance-based forest management: a study of the Blue River Landscape Strategy in the Central Cascades adaptive management area." , bibl. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 42 p., (2009). of Collection: , "Res. Rep. PNW-RP-581."

James Johnston (INR), John Bailey (OSU), Barbara Bond (OSU), Sally Duncan (INR), David Hulse (UO), Gordon Reeves (USFS), Brent Steel (OSU), and Fred Swanson (USFS), "Nonequilibrium


ecosystem dynamics: management implications for Oregon" , bibl. Corvallis, OR: Oregon State University. 118 p., (2008). technical report of Collection: Institute for Natural Resources, ""

PK Barten, JA Jones, GL Achterman, KN Brooks, IF Creed, PF Ffolliott, A Hariston-Strang, MC Kavanaugh, L MacDonald, RC Smith, DB Tinker, SB Walker, BC Wemple, GH Weyerhaeuser, Jr., "Hydrologic effects of a changing forest landscape--report brief." , bibl. Washington, DC: The National Academy of Sciences. Available: http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12223, (2008). Report Brief of Collection: National Research Council, ""

Internet Dissemination:

http://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/ This is the main HJ Andrews Experimental Forest website which is used to disseminate data and information about projects and research at the Andrews Forest.

Contributions:

Contributions within Discipline:

Climate Science: The work makes significant contributions to climate science by using unique, long-term records of climate variables to show magnitude and timing of trends in (1) air temperature, precipitation, and snowpack in forested landscape, and (2) magnitude of correlations of air temperatures and precipitation with sea surface temperatures. The picture that emerges from this work is of a climate system strongly controlled by ocean temperatures. Hydrology: This work makes significant contributions to hydrology by using unique, long-term records of climate variables and streamflow in small, paired watersheds to show (1) magnitude, timing and persistence of forest management effects on streamflow, (2) magnitude and timing of long-term trends in streamflow from unmanaged forests. This work makes significant contributions to hydrology by using unique, long-term records of precipitation and streamflow chemistry in small, paired watersheds to show (1) the pristine character of precipitation inputs (2) surprising declining trends in precipitation inputs, especially cations and P, (3) lack of trends in streamflow chemistry over time from unmanaged forests, and (4) short-term responses of streamflow chemistry to forest harvest and related disturbances. The significance of this work is that it provides a unique insight into the resilience of old-growth forests to native and anthropogenic disturbances: prior publications on watershed biogeochemistry are either from watersheds significantly affected by anthropogenic inputs, or from watersheds with low anthropogenic inputs but lacking long-term records. Contributions to Education and Human Resources: PhD student – Janine Rice – will defend in October 2009 MS student – Kathleen Moore – will defend in October/November 2009 Contributions to Resources for Science and Technology:


http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12223

http://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/


The LiDAR data have been used by undergraduate students in a summer quantitative sciences program. These students use the information explore how mathematics can be used to advance ecological sciences. The data have also been used by at least one Ph.D. student (University of Washington) and downloaded off the website by several other users. Contributions Beyond Science and Engineering: The insight and expertise developed through the Carbon modeling project has contributed to public presentation, media reports, and Congressional testimony on the subject of forest carbon dynamics.

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