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ORDER MATTERS – TRUTH OR MYTH?EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON ANCHORING BIAS

Group 3Arthi-Chetana-Isuru-Kalpesh-Ravi-Sandhya-Sayan

June 7, 2014

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Is there a relation between winning and the order of performances?

(How likely is it that you will win if you perform first?)

RESEARCH QUESTION

June 7, 2014

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WHY IS IT A PUZZLE ?

June 7, 2014

• It has been observed that in many competitions, there is a running assumption that the sequences have an influence on the results of the competition

• We want to find out whether or not there is anchoring bias behind this phenomenon

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• Anchoring bias: The cognitive bias whereby a person evaluates an option based on the first option he faces. A reference is fixed based on the first performance.

• Anchoring bias causes the sequential order bias; this means that the evaluation of each performance is done based on the immediately preceding performance.

• This is different from the overall order bias where all the preceding performances influence in evaluating the current performance (Rotthoff, K., 2014).

THEORY/FRAMEWORK

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EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

June 7, 2014

H0 (Null hypothesis): There is no relation between winning and order of performance.• We will be conducting a lab experiment with multiple

treatments. We restrict ourselves to dance competitions for this experiment.

• We will be taking graduate students from different colleges to assume the role of judges in a dancing competition.

• These students would have some competency in dance. Each judge will be supposed to evaluate 10 performances.

• 2 minute video performances; gender bias also taken care of.

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IMPLEMENTATION

June 7, 2014

• SAMPLE SIZE: 10 performances arranged such that each performer will appear at each position not more than 5 times- 500 judges will evaluate different sequences of performances.

• Plot average score of each performer at each position. • Roll up participant level score and plot with respect to

position. • ANOVA- to check for significant difference in average

scores with respect to positions.• If spike of average score at later half of position, reject

the null hypothesis.

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• Compare the average score for each participant in each of the different positions.

• The first treatment: ordered performances, i.e., each judge will judge one order of performances. First performer’s performance is his stand alone performance.

• The second treatment: introduction of a professional dancer with clearly the best skill, and we observe the scores of the successive participants. This is to look for any signs of diminishing effect in scores.

LAB INTERVENTION DETAILS

June 7, 2014

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APPLICATIONS

June 7, 2014

This experiment can be replicated in the following areas:• Singing competitions• Recruitment processes• Academic evaluation• Business/ Academic presentations• Advertisement sequences• Gymnastics• Athletics, etc.

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Thank you !