Ordained minister, Church of England 1788 M.A. Jesus College, Cambridge, 1791 Professor of History...

Ordained minister, Church of England 1788M.A. Jesus College, Cambridge, 1791

Professor of History and Political Economy In the East India College, Hertfordshire, London

Thomas Malthus1766-1834

His Major Works

An Essay on the Principle of Population, as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society with Remarks on the Speculations of Mr. Godwin, M. Condorcet, and Other Writers

Observations on the Effects of the Corn Laws, and of a Rise or Fall in the Price of Corn on the Agriculture and General Wealth of the Country

The evils which must always belong to restrictions upon the importation of foreign corn, are the following:

1. A certain waste of the national resources, by the employment of a greater quantity of capital than is necessary for procuring the quantity of corn required.

2. A relative disadvantage in all foreign commercial transactions, occasioned by the high comparative prices of corn and labour, and the low value of silver, as far as they affect exportable commodities.


3. Some check to population, occasioned by a check to that abundance of corn, and demand for manufacturing labours, which would be the result of a perfect freedom of importation.

4. The necessity of constant revision and interference, which belongs to almost every artificial system.


The Grounds of an Opinion on the Policy of Restricting the Importation of Foreign Corn: intended as an Appendix to "Observations on the Corn Law"

1. In the Observations on the corn laws, I endeavoured to show that, according to the general principles of supply and demand, a considerable fall in the price of corn could not take place, without throwing much poor lad out of cultivation, and effectually preventing, for a considerable time, all further improvements in agriculture, which have for their object an increase of produce.

Restricting the Importation of Foreign Corn:

2. In expressing this distinct opinion on the effects of a free trade in corn, I certainly meant to refer to a trade really free - that is, a trade by which a nation would be entitled to its share of the produce of the commercial world, according to its means of purchasing, whether that produce were plentiful or scanty. In this sense I adhere strictly to the opinion I then gave; but, since that period, an event has occurred which has shown, in the clearest manner, that it is entirely out of our power, even in time of peace, to obtain a free trade in corn, or an approximation towards it, whatever may be our wishes on the subject. It has, perhaps, not been sufficiently attended to ingeneral, when the advantages of a free trade in corn have been discussed, that the jealousies and fears of nations, respecting their means of subsistence, will very rarely allow of a free egress of corn, when it is in any degree scarce.

An Inquiry into the Nature and Progress of Rent, and the Principles by which it is regulated.

Rent is due to three causes

First, and mainly, that quality of the earth, by which it can be made to yield a greater portion of the necessaries of life than is required for the maintenance of the persons employed onthe land.

Land produces a surplus over the cost of cultivation

An Inquiry into the Nature and Progress of Rent, and the Principles by which it is regulated.

The high price in which the rent or net surplus originates, while it enriches the landlord who has the produce of agriculture to sell, diminishes in the same proportion the wealth of those who are its purchasers; and on this account it is quite inaccurate to consider the landlord's rent as a clear addition to the national wealth.

Land produces a surplus over the cost of cultivation

Secondly, that quality peculiar to the necessaries of life of being able to create their own demand, or to raise up a number of demanders in proportion to the quantity of necessaries produced.


The liberal reward of labour, by enabling them to provide better for their children, and consequently to bring up a greater number, naturally tends to widen and extend those limits. It deserves to be remarked, too, that it necessarily does this as nearly as possible in the proportion which the demand for labour requires. If this demand is continually increasing, the reward of labour must necessarily encourage in such a manner the marriage and multiplication of labourers, as may enable them to supply that continually increasing demand by a continually increasing population. If the reward should at any time be less than what was requisite for this purpose, the deficiency of hands would soon raise it; and if it should at any time be more, their excessive multiplication would soon lower it to this necessary rate. The market would be so much understocked with labour in the one case, and so much overstocked in the other, as would soon force back its price to that proper rate which the circumstances of the society required. Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature And Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Book I, Chapter VIII.

It is in this manner that the demand for men, like that for any other commodity, necessarily regulates the production of men; quickens it when it goes on too slowly, and stops it when it advances too fast. It is this demand which regulates and determines the state of propagation in all the different countries of the world, in North America, in Europe, and in China; which renders it rapidly progressive in the first, slow and gradual in the second, and altogether stationary in the last. Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature And Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Book I, Chapter VIII.


And, thirdly, the comparative scarcity of the most fertile land.

Diminishing Returns on Land

Total Output of Wheat Marginal Output of WheatA A

0 0 ---1 4002 6003 7504 850


0 0 ---1 400 4002 6003 7504 850



0 0 ---1 400 4002 600 2003 7504 850



0 0 ---1 400 4002 600 2003 750 1504 850



0 0 ---1 400 4002 600 2003 750 1504 850 100


Total Output of Wheat Marginal Output of WheatA B A

0 0 0 ---1 400 300 4002 600 475 2003 750 575 1504 850 --- 100


Total Output of Wheat Marginal Output of WheatA B A B

0 0 0 --- ---1 400 300 400 3002 600 475 2003 750 575 1504 850 --- 100



0 0 0 --- ---1 400 300 400 3002 600 475 200 1753 750 575 1504 850 --- 100



0 0 0 --- ---1 400 300 400 3002 600 475 200 1753 750 575 150 1004 850 --- 100 ---


Total Output of Wheat Marginal Output of WheatA B C A B

0 0 0 0 --- ---1 400 300 200 400 3002 600 475 300 200 1753 750 575 --- 150 1004 850 --- --- 100 ---


Total Output of Wheat Marginal Output of WheatA B C A B C

0 0 0 0 --- --- ---1 400 300 200 400 300 2002 600 475 300 200 1753 750 575 --- 150 1004 850 --- --- 100 ---


Total Output of Wheat Marginal Output of WheatA B C A B C

0 0 0 0 --- --- ---1 400 300 200 400 300 2002 600 475 300 200 175 1003 750 575 --- 150 100 ---4 850 --- --- 100 --- ---


Total Output of Wheat Marginal Output of WheatA B C D A B C

0 0 0 0 0 --- --- ---1 400 300 200 100 400 300 2002 600 475 300 --- 200 175 1003 750 575 --- --- 150 100 ---4 850 --- --- --- 100 --- ---


Total Output of Wheat Marginal Output of WheatA B C D A B C D

0 0 0 0 0 --- --- --- ---1 400 300 200 100 400 300 200 1002 600 475 300 --- 200 175 100 ---3 750 575 --- --- 150 100 --- ---4 850 --- --- --- 100 --- --- ---


Mr. Malthus very correctly defines, "the rent of land to be that portion of the value of the whole produce which remains to the owner, after all the outgoings belonging to its cultivation, of whatever kind, have been paid, including the profits of the capital employed, estimated according to the usual and ordinary rate of the profits of agricultural stock at the time being."

Ricardo argued that only the third reason is responsible for rent

If all land had the same properties, if it were unlimited in quantity, and uniform in quality, no charge could be made for its use, unless where it possessed peculiar advantages of situation. It is only, then, because land is not unlimited in quantity and uniform in quality, and because in the progress of population, land of an inferior quality, or less advantageously situated, is called into cultivation, that rent is ever paid for the use of it.

Ricardo argued that only the third reason is responsible for rent

An Essay on the Principle of Population, as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society with Remarks on the Speculations of Mr. Godwin, M. Condorcet, and Other Writers

People at present think five sons are not too much, and each son has five sons also; and when the grandfather is not dead there are twenty-five descendants. Therefore, people are more and wealth is less; they work hard and receive little.

Han Feizi of the Zhou dynasty, 500 B.C.

Persian legend about chess and rice

Courtier gives chessboard to king, requests rice in return

8 grains for fourth square

2 grains for second square

4 grains for third square

1 grain for first square



1.09951 x 1012 grains for forty first square

16,834 grains for fifteenth square

1,048,576 grains for twenty first square

512 grains for tenth square



Exponential growth is Exponential

9.22337 1018 grains for sixty fourth square

Production systems, goods, services and factors

A production system or technology is a description

of the set of outputs that can be produced

by a given set of factors of production or inputs

using a given method of production

or production process.

Production TechnologiesProduction Technologies

The technology set (technology for short) for a given (technology for short) for a given production process is defined as the set of all input production process is defined as the set of all input and output combinationsand output combinations

such that the output vector y can be produced from output vector y can be produced from the given set of inputs xthe given set of inputs x

We denote the set of all feasible input-output combinations by T(x,y)

For a given level of inputs, x, we call this set theFor a given level of inputs, x, we call this set theProduction Possibility SetProduction Possibility Set

We denote the set of all outputs producible with a given level of inputs x, by P(x) where

)x,...,x,,x(xx n321

Production FunctionsThe production function is a functionthat gives the maximum output attainablefrom a given combination of inputs.

),(),(:max)( yxTxyyy

xf

yxPy

xf max)(

)(

The Production Functiony = f (x1, x2, x3, . . . xn )

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Input -x

Ou

tpu

t -y

y

A factor of production (input) is a good or service that is employed in the production process.

A product is a good or service that is the output of a particular production process.

Expendable factors of production are raw

materials, or produced factors that are

completely used up or consumed during a

single production period.

CapitalCapital is a stock that is not used up

during a single production period,

provides services over time, and retains

a unique identity.

Capital servicesCapital services are the flow of productive

services that can be obtained from a given capital

stock during a production period.

It is usually possible to separate the right to use

services from ownership of the capital good.

They arise from a specific item of capital rather

than from a production process.

Factors of Production

Land is capital

The right to use land is a capital service

A laborer is capital

A laborer offers services for a given period


Skilled labor has embodied human capital

A skilled laborer offers services for a given period

Annual fertilizer is an expendable input

Wire is an expendable input in producing pins


Financial capital is a stock of moneyOne can use financial capital for a period by paying interest

An entrepreneur provides creative energy, capital, organizational skills, and willingness to assume risk to a firm for a period

and is rewarded with profits

How does one increase production?

Employ more inputs

Employ inputs more efficiently?

Division of labor

Specialization


Employ higher quality inputs

Improved capital inputs

New forms of inputs


Learning by doing

Use an improved technology

Growth

Arithmetic growth

xt = x0 + kt

x1 = 1 + (1)(1) = 1 + 1 = 2

x2 = 1 + (1)(2) = 1 + 2 = 3

x0=1, k=1

Arithmetic growth

xt = x0 + kt

x3= 1 + (1)(3) = 1 + 3 = 4

xn = 1 + (1)(n) = 1 + n = n+1

x0=1, k=1

Arithmetic growth

xt = x0 + kt

1,2,3,4,5,6, . . . ,

x0=1, k=1

Arithmetic growth

xt = x0 + kt

1,2,3,4,5,6, . . . , [x0=1, k=1]

1,101,201,301,401,501, . . . , , [x0=1, k=100]

1,4,7,10,13,16, . . . , [x0=1, k=3]

Geometric growth

xt = x0kt

x0=1, k=2

x1 = (1)21 = 2

x2= (1)22 = 4

Geometric growth

xt = x0kt

x0=1, k=2

x3= (1)23= 8

x4= (1)24 = 16

Geometric growth

xt = x0kt

x0=1, k=2

xn= (1)2n= 2n

1,2,4,8,16,32,64, 128, . . . ,

Geometric growth

xt = x0(1+r/100)t

x0=10, r=5

x1 = (10)(1.05)1 = 10.5

x2= (10)(1.05)2 = 11.025

k=(1+r/100), r written as an integer as rate per year

Geometric growth

xt = x0(1+r/100)t

x0=10, r=5

x4= (10)(1.05)4 = 12.15506

10,10.5,11.025, 11.57625,12.15506,12.76281, . . .

Geometric growth and Doubling Time

xt = x0(1+r/100)t = 2x0

(1+r/100)t = 2

t ln(1+r/100)t = ln(2)

r/100)ln(1

0.69341718

r/100)ln(1

ln(2)t

Doubling Time

The Taylor Series for ln(1+r/100) at the point r = 0 is given by

...33

10001

1100

1622

2

10001

1100

1100

121

10001

1100

1)1ln(100

1ln3

rrrr

...3100

1622

1001

1001

21

1001001ln

3

rrrr

...33000000

1220000

1100100

1ln

rrrr

Doubling Time

...33000000

1220000

1100100

1ln rrrr

100100

1ln rr

Doubling Time

100100

1ln rr

r/100)ln(1

0.69341718

r/100)ln(1

ln(2)t

r

70

r

)(100)(0.6934178

100r

0.69341718t

Doubling Time Examples

Growth Rate Doubling Time2 354 17.55 1410 714 5

Exponential Growth

Compare with

rxdt

dx

rtt exx 0

tt rxx 10

x0=10, r=0.05

x1 = (10)e0.05 = (10)(1.0513) = 10.5127

Exponential Growth

x2 = (10)e0.1 = (10)(1.1052) = 11.0517

rtt exx 0 r written as a decimal, t in years

x0=10, r=0.05

x3 = (10)e0.15 = (10)(1.1618) = 11.6183

Exponential Growth

x4 = (10)e0.2 = (10)(1.2214) = 12.2140


x0=10, r=0.05

10, 10.51271, 11.05171, 11.61834, 12.21403. 12.84025

Exponential Growth

As compared to

10, 10.50000, 11.02500, 11.57625, 12.15506, 12.76281, . . .


with geometric growth

Exponential Growth is Faster than Geometric Growth

Exponential Growth and Doubling Times

rrrt

rt

e

xexxrt

rtt

70.069315.02ln

2ln

2

2 00

Exponential Growth and Doubling Times

rrr

t70.069315.02ln

integeranaswrittenr,r

70t

Ecclesiastes 5:11

When goods increase, they are increased that eat them: and what good is there to the owners thereof, saving the beholding of them with their eyes?

An Essay on the Principle of Population

Background for“An Essay on the Principle of Population”

Godwin

Enquiry Concerning Political Justice

The true object of moral and political disquisition, is pleasure or happiness.

The primary, or earliest, class of human pleasures is the pleasures of the external senses.

In addition to these, man is susceptible of certain secondary pleasures, as the pleasures of intellectual feeling, the pleasures of sympathy, and the pleasures of self-approbation.

The secondary pleasures are probably more exquisite than the primary: Or, at least, The most desirable state of man is that in which he has access to all these sources of pleasure, and is in possession of a happiness the most varied and uninterrupted. This state is a state of high civilization.

The most desirable condition of the human species is a state of society.

By concentrating the force of the community, it gives occasion to wild projects of calamity, to oppression, despotism, war and conquest.

Government was intended to suppress injustice, but it offers new occasions and temptations for the commission of it.

The injustice and violence of men in a state of society produced the demand for government.

Government, as it was forced upon mankind by their vices, so has it commonly been the creature of their ignorance and mistake.

By perpetuating and aggravating the inequality of property, it fosters many injurious passions, and excites men to the practice of robbery and fraud.

Government was intended to suppress injustice, but its effect has been to embody and perpetuate it.

Godwin’s works were the locus of philosophical anarchism

Godwin’s works were the locus of philosophical anarchism

His view was that if law and property were abolished, crime would disappear and human relations would be perfectly harmonious.

Godwin

On Avarice and Profusion

It is a gross and ridiculous error to suppose that the rich pay for any thing. There is no wealth in the world except this, the labour of man.[1] What is misnamed wealth, is merely a power vested in certain individuals by the institutions of society, to compel others to labour for their benefit. So much labour is requisite to produce the necessaries of life; so much more to produce those superfluities which at present exist in any country. Every new luxury is a new weight thrown into the scale. [1] Political Justice, Book VIII, Chap. II, octavo edition.

The use of wealth is no doubt a science attended with uncommon difficulties. But it is not less evident that, by a master in the science, it might be applied, to cheer the miserable, to relieve the oppressed, to assist the manly adventurer, to advance science, and to encourage art. A rich man, guided by the genuine principles of virtue, would be munificent, though not with that spurious munificence that has so often usurped the name. It may however almost be doubted whether the conduct of the miser, who wholly abstains from the use of riches, be not more advantageous to mankind, than the conduct of the man who, with honorable intentions, is continually misapplying his wealth to what he calls public benefits and charitable uses.

Godwin more or less thought there was a way to make everyone productive, free from “want”, and happy

Background for“An Essay on the Principle of Population”

CondorcetThen a smaller and smaller area of land will be able to produce commodities of greater use or higher value; wider enjoyment will be obtained with less outlay; the same manufacturing output will call for less expenditure of raw materials or will be more durable. For each kind of soil people will know how to choose, from among crops that satisfy the same kind of need, those crops that are most versatile, those that satisfy [the needs on a greater mass of users, requiring less labor and less real consumption. Thus, without any sacrifice, the methods of conservation and of economy in consumption will follow the progress of the art of producing the various commodities, preparing them and turning them into manufactures. Thus not only will the same amount of land be able to feed more people; but each of them, with less labor, will be employed more productively and will be able to satisfy his needs better.

Condorcet

But in this progress of industry and prosperity . . . each generation . . . is destined to fuller enjoyment; and hence, as a consequence of the physical constitution of the human species, to an increase of the population.

Will there not come a time when . . . the increase in population surpassing its means of subsistence, the result would necessarily be-if not a continuous decline in wellbeing and number of people, a truly retrograde movement-at least a kind of oscillation between good and bad?

Condorcet

But supposing a limit were reached, nothing terrible would happen, regarding either the happiness or the indefinite perfectibility of mankind. We must also suppose that before that time, the progress of reason will have gone hand in hand with progress in the arts and sciences; that the ridiculous prejudices of superstition will no longer cover morality with an austerity that corrupts and degrades it instead of purifying and elevating it. Men will know then that if they have obligations to beings who do not yet exist, these obligations do not consist in giving life, but in giving happiness. Their object is the general welfare of the human species, of the society in which people live, of the family to which they belong and not the puerile idea of filling the earth with useless and unhappy beings. The possible quantity of the means of subsistence could therefore have a limit, and consequently so could the attainable level of population, without resulting in the destruction . . . of part of the living.

Main Arguments of “An Essay on the Principle of Population”

Food is necessary to the existence of man

The passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly in its present state

Response to Godwin

THE following Essay owes its origin to a conversation with a friend, on the subject of Mr. Godwin's essay on 'Avarice and Profusion' in his Enquirer. The discussion started the general question of the future improvement of society. and the Author at first sat down with an intention of merely stating his thoughts to his friend, upon paper, in a clearer manner than he thought he could do in conversation. But as the subject opened upon him, some ideas occurred, which he did not recollect to have met with before; and as he conceived that every least light, on a topic so generally interesting, might be received with candour, he determined to put his thoughts in a form for publication.

In the United States of America, where the means of subsistence have been more ample, the manners of the people more pure, and consequently the checks to early marriages fewer, than in any of the modern states of Europe, the population has been found to double itself in twenty-five years.

This ratio of increase, though short of the utmost power of population, yet as the result of actual experience, we will take as our rule, and say, that population, when unchecked, goes on doubling itself every twenty-five years or increases in a geometrical ratio.

In the back settlements, where the sole employment is agriculture, and vicious customs and unwholesome occupations are little known, the population has been found to double itself in fifteen years. Even this extraordinary rate of increase is probably short of the utmost power of population.

Sir William Petty supposes a doubling possible in so short a time as ten years.

But, to be perfectly sure that we are far within the truth, we will take the slowest of these rates of increase, a rate in which all concurring testimonies agree, and which has been repeatedly ascertained to be from procreation only.

It may safely be pronounced, therefore, that population, when unchecked, goes on doubling itself every twenty-five years, or increases in a geometrical ratio.

The rate according to which the productions of the earth may be supposed to increase, it will not be so easy to determine. Of this, however, we may be perfectly certain, that the ratio of their increase in a limited territory must be of a totally different nature from the ratio of the increase of population. A thousand millions are just as easily doubled every twenty-five years by the power of population as a thousand. But the food to support the increase from the greater number will by no means be obtained with the same facility.

Man is necessarily confined in room. When acre has been added to acre till all the fertile land is occupied, the yearly increase of food must depend upon the melioration of the land already in possession. This is a fund; which, from the nature of all soils, instead of increasing, must be gradually diminishing. But population, could it be supplied with food, would go on with unexhausted vigour; and the increase of one period would furnish the power of a greater increase the next, and this without any limit.

It may be fairly pronounced, therefore, that, considering the present average state of the earth, the means of subsistence, under circumstances the most favourable to human industry, could not possibly be made to increase faster than in an arithmetical ratio.

Taking the whole earth, instead of this island, emigration would of course be excluded; and, supposing the present population equal to a thousand millions, the human species would increase as the numbers, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, and subsistence as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. In two centuries the population would be to the means of subsistence as 256 to 9 ; in three centuries as 4096 to 13, and in two thousand years the difference would be almost incalculable.

Checks to population growth

The ultimate check to population appears then to be a want of food, arising necessarily from the different ratios according to which population and food increase. But this ultimate check is never the immediate check, except in cases of actual famine.

The immediate check may be stated to consist in all those customs, and all those diseases, which seem to be generated by a scarcity of the means of subsistence; and all those causes, independent of this scarcity, whether of a moral or physical nature, which tend prematurely to weaken and destroy the human frame.


But man cannot look around him, and see the distress which frequently presses upon those who have large families; he cannot contemplate his present possessions or earnings, which he now nearly consumes himself, and calculate the amount of each share, when with very little addition they must be divided, perhaps, among seven or eight, without feeling a doubt whether, if he follow the bent of his inclinations, he may be able to support the offspring which he will probably bring into the world.


Will he not lower his rank in life, and be obliged to give up in great measure his former habits? Does any mode of employment present itself by which he may reasonably hope to maintain a family? Will he not at any rate subject himself to greater difficulties, and more severe labour, than in his single state? Will he not be unable to transmit to his children the same advantages of education and improvement that he had himself possessed? Does he even feel secure that, should he have a large family, his utmost exertions can save them from rags and squalid poverty, and their consequent degradation in the community?


On examining these obstacles to the increase of population which I have classed under the heads of preventive and positive checks, it will appear that they are all resolvable into moral restraint, vice, and misery.


Of the preventive checks, the restraint from marriage which is not followed by irregular gratifications may properly be termed moral restraint.

Promiscuous intercourse, unnatural passions, violations of the marriage bed, and improper arts to conceal the consequences of irregular connexions, are preventive checks that clearly come under the head of vice.


When this restraint produces vice, the evils which follow are but too conspicuous. A promiscuous intercourse to such a degree as to prevent the birth of children, seems to lower, in the most marked manner, the dignity of human nature. It cannot be without its effect on men, and nothing can be more obvious than its tendency to degrade the female character, and to destroy all its most amiable and distinguishing characteristics. Add to which, that among those unfortunate females, with which all great towns abound, more real distress and aggravated misery are, perhaps, to be found, than in any other department of human life.



Of the positive checks, those which appear to arise unavoidably from the laws of nature, may be called exclusively misery; and those which we obviously bring upon ourselves, such as wars, excesses, and many others which it would be in our power to avoid, are of a mixed nature. They are brought upon us by vice, and their consequences are misery.


When population has increased nearly to the utmost limits of the food, all the preventive and the positive checks will naturally operate with increased force. Vicious habits with respect to the sex will be more general, the exposing of children more frequent, and both the probability and fatality of wars and epidemics will be considerably greater; and these causes will probably continue their operation till the population is sunk below the level of the food; and then the return to comparative plenty will again produce an increase, and, after a certain period, its further progress will again be checked by the same causes.

The poor-laws of England tend to depress the general condition of the poor in these two ways. Their first obvious tendency is to increase population without increasing the food for its support. A poor man may marry with little or no prospect of being able to support a family without parish assistance. They may be said, therefore, to create the poor which they maintain; and as the provisions of the country must, in consequence of the increased population, be distributed to every man in smaller proportions, it is evident that the labour of those who are not supported by parish assistance, will purchase a smaller quantity of provisions than before, and consequently more of them must be driven to apply for assistance.

So what do you think?

Have the predictions of Malthus come to pass?

What about his assumptions?

What about

Birth control

Sterilization



What about

Birth control

Sterilization

Abortion



What about

Non-renewable resources

Soil and water pollution

Fragile eco-systems



What about

Technological change

Education and human capital

Ordained minister, Church of England 1788 M.A. Jesus College, Cambridge, 1791 Professor of History...

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Transcript of Ordained minister, Church of England 1788 M.A. Jesus College, Cambridge, 1791 Professor of History...