Optimum control of carbon

University of TainanFebruary 23rd 2008

Richard Wilson Harvard University

The Carbon problem

Some factors are well determined but it becoames elss certain as we

go down the list

1829 Jaques Fourier in Comptes Renduespostulated that the earth is a greenhouse

1870 Tyndall in Bristol showed that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and measured its properties

1897 Arrhenius in Philosphical Magazine related CO2 concentrations to historic temperatures

CO2 when released spreads uniformly throuhout the worldIf no other effect, the effect of CO2 on T is easy to calculate

H20, an even more important greenhouse gas, is very non uniform and usually increases with temperature

T = T0/(1 -F) where F is a water vapor feedback factor ~ 1/2

F is uncertain and could approach 1

Carbon Concentrations in the atmosphere have risen from 150 ppb to 300 ppb and are rising

The carbon cycle is now well enough understood that we know this is due to anthropogenic activity

The temeperature rise has been less well understood. It could be:Changes in sun activity

particulates added to a greenhouse effect and are being reduced

Note that temperature was flat 1940-1980 But IT IS RWISING NOW

The effect on human affairs is less clearMan can adapt: New grain every 5 years!

Some people may beneft

BUT WE ARE MAKING A CHANGE IN AN IMPORTANT CLIMATE PARAMETER IN A TIME SCALE SHORT COMPARED WITH

HUMAN EXISTENCE

WE CAN ONLY DO IT ONCE. LET US BE SLOW.

Carbon dioxide concentrations are a global problem and should

be globally managed.

Preferably internationally, but if not, at the level of the US Federal Government or the European Union, or Asean

countries

Politicians and economists have been slow to grasp that the

carbon cycle is NOT the same as the sulpur/nitrogen/particulate

cycle.

We must teach them to take advantage of the difference.

Regulation and control is easier and more efficient the further upstream one goes.

For particulates we are limited to emissions control

For carbon we can go to the coal mine, oil well, gas field,

or port of entry.

Let us do so!

Particulates, sulphates, nitrates, are pollutants to be

brought to zero

Carbon Dioxide is a substance to be managed

At best, present schemes are sector by sector control and

cannot transfer between sectors

Diffreence between carbon taxes and cap and trade schemes is

small compared with advantage of upstream control

Regulation by a city (Boulder, CO)

or by a state (CA) or a country (in EU) is harder to regulate as far upstream as for USA or EU

EU or USA can set example for the world and hopefully UN

follows

Control by emissions limitsor efficiency standards

or subsidy for non carbon fuelsis inherently “centrally planned”

Which do you trust the least?Wshington Politicians,

Sierra club Lawyers?Starry eyed scientists?

The market place?

We argue: apply control, or tax when

carbon leaves the ground and enters the surface pool

NOT of CO2 emissions or mpgOnly a “few” places

oil wells, mines, ports etc Not the myriad of places which emit

There is talk of a gas tax.It should be a carbon tax

There should be no exceptions.

Erice meetings constantly urge a return to nuclear power.

The list of initiatives listed in 2006 Stern report - proposals or tokenism

Germany and now UK 20% renewable electricity:

wind 50% more expensive than coal or nuclear

But:German experience

( Birkhofer at Erice in 2005)Wind about 50% more expensive

that coalUS subsidy 2 cents per kwh

Therefore we recommend that governments and international agencies treat all non carbon energy technologies on a par with each other with access to similar subsidies and benefits of removal of financial market barriers so that improved versions of all these technologies can rapidly be utilized for achieving stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions while meeting energy demand.

The European Union and the United States of America are both considering federal plans to

manage carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

The WFS recommend that this control be as far upstream in the carbon cycle as possible,

Viz:oilwell, coal mine, gas field, or port of entry.

This becomes possible, now that regulation is considered on a large geographical scale.