Optimization-based decision support within healthcare and ... · Nurse rostering Solved manually by...
Transcript of Optimization-based decision support within healthcare and ... · Nurse rostering Solved manually by...
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1ICT
eVITA Scientific MeetingGeilo, Norway January 28, 2010
Geir Hasle, SINTEF ICT
Optimization-based decision support within healthcare and transportation
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2ICT
Acknowledgment
Henrik Andersson, NTNUMarielle Christiansen, NTNUArild Hoff, Høgskolen i MoldeArne Løkketangen, Høgskolen i MoldeTomas Nordlander, SINTEFAtle Riise, SINTEFMartin Stølevik, SINTEF
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3ICT
Outline
Motivation – relevance to practice and eVitaDiscrete optimizationChallengesSummary and conclusion
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4ICT
Messages
Discrete optimization problems central to better performancehard
Strong need for more powerful methodsSeveral challenges and promising research avenuesShort road from theoretical to practical improvementsImportant part of eScience
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5ICT
Healthcare Need for better coordination
Increasing demandsPatient focus: high quality treatment Resource focus: Need to curb cost increase
Design, planningCrucial to performanceToo complex for manual decision-makingTime consuming and repetitive
Need for decision support systemsAutomated planningObjectives and constraintsComputationally complex Discrete Optimization Problems
Need for models and effective solution algorithms
5
”Det er mye god omsorg i effektivitet” P. Syrstad presentasjon på Ringerikskonferansen 2008.
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6ICT 6
Coordination challenges in healthcare
Funksjonsfordeling
Turnusplanlegging
Ambulanseallokering
Operasjonsplanlegging
Lagerbeholdning
Optimized Patient Transports in Hospitals
SimulereSimulere
VisualisereVisualisere
Pasientforløp
OptimereOptimere
Planning
SimulereSimulere
VisualisereVisualisere
OptimereOptimere
OptimeringBlodbankBlodbank
Supply chain optimisation
Blodbank Organer …
Sykehusplanleggingog -design
SimulereSimulere VisualisereVisualisereOptimereOptimere
BehandlingsmixBehandlingsmix
Hvilken behandlingHvilken behandling
InntaksplanleggingInntaksplanlegging
UkeplanleggingUkeplanlegging
DagsplanleggingDagsplanleggingBlock scheduleBlock schedule
Open scheduleOpen schedule
Surgical mixSurgical mix
StillingsprosenterStillingsprosenter
Master Surgery ScheduleMaster Surgery Schedule
BemanningsbehovBemanningsbehov
Simulere beholdningSimulere beholdning
Optimere beholdningOptimere beholdning
LagerdesignLagerdesignSimulereSimulereVisualisereVisualisere OptimereOptimere
WorkforceTraining
”What if” Scenario”What if” Scenario
LagerdesignLagerdesign FunksjonsfordelingFunksjonsfordeling
TurnusplanleggingTurnusplanlegging
AmbulanseallokeringAmbulanseallokering
OperasjonsplanleggingOperasjonsplanlegging
LagerbeholdningLagerbeholdning
Optimized Patient Transports in Hospitals
Optimized Patient Transports in Hospitals
SimulereSimulere
VisualisereVisualisere
Pasientforløp
OptimereOptimere
Planning
SimulereSimulere
VisualisereVisualisere
OptimereOptimere
OptimeringBlodbankBlodbank
Supply chain optimisation
BlodbankBlodbank OrganerOrganer ……
Sykehusplanleggingog -design
Sykehusplanleggingog -design
SimulereSimulere VisualisereVisualisereOptimereOptimere
BehandlingsmixBehandlingsmix
Hvilken behandlingHvilken behandling
InntaksplanleggingInntaksplanlegging
UkeplanleggingUkeplanlegging
DagsplanleggingDagsplanleggingBlock scheduleBlock schedule
Open scheduleOpen schedule
Surgical mixSurgical mix
StillingsprosenterStillingsprosenter
Master Surgery ScheduleMaster Surgery Schedule
BemanningsbehovBemanningsbehov
Simulere beholdningSimulere beholdning
Optimere beholdningOptimere beholdning
LagerdesignLagerdesignSimulereSimulereVisualisereVisualisere OptimereOptimere
WorkforceTraining
WorkforceTraining
”What if” Scenario”What if” Scenario
LagerdesignLagerdesign
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7ICT
• Enterprise Models• Information• High quality data• OR models• Solution algorithms• Computing power
• Enterprise Models• Information• High quality data• OR models• Solution algorithms• Computing power
Vision: An optimized healthcare systemVision: An optimized healthcare system
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8ICT
Two cases in point
Nurse rosteringSolved manually by experienced nursesTimetabling problemComputationally hard discrete optimization problem
Surgery schedulingSolved manually by experienced nursesLong-term, mid-term, short termCritical resources: operation theaters, surgeonsVariants of the Job-Shop Scheduling ProblemComputationally hard discrete optimization problem
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9ICT
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10ICT
Discrete optimization (1) Central to real-life problems across many application areas
routingschedulingplanningdesign
resources, time, activitieseconomy, environmental effects
Healthcare, transportation, manufacturing, oil & gas, finance, sportsComputationally hard
Physics, chemistry, biology, electronics, statistics, geometry, ...
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11ICT
Discrete optimization (2) Two basic types of methodExact, mathematical programming
guarantees to find the optimal solutionresponse time problematicmay be interrupted for feasible solutionlow quality, but upper bound on error
Approximative (typically heuristics)greedylocal searchmetaheuristicsgood solutions in limited timeno useful error bound
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12ICT
Standard test instance G-n262-k25 (Gillett & Johnson 1976)
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13ICT
"The world record" for G-n262-k25: 5685 vs. 6119 (SINTEF 2003)
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14ICT
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15ICT
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16ICT
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17ICT
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18ICT
Discrete optimization – main challenges More powerful methods – exact and approximative
better solutions in shorter timenew applications
Combining the strengths of exact methods and heuristics Decomposition and aggregationMulti-level solvers, different levels of abstractionStochastic modelsParallelization
fine grained, e.g. to exploit the architecture of modern commodity computersmulti-core and heterogeneous computing coarse grained, e.g. cooperative hybrid solvers, multi-level solvers
Self-adaptive methods
Better benchmarks
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19ICT
Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Molde University College (HiM)
and SINTEF ICT
DOMinantDiscrete Optimization Methods
In Maritime and Road-based Transportation
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Main objective
More efficient methods for rich, industrial variants of computationally hard discrete optimization problemsin maritime and road-based transportation
Two types of problemsInventory routingFleet composition
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21ICT
Classical VRP(TW)
Deliveries from a single depotGiven customer demandHomogeneous fleetSizes/capacitiesMinimize total transportation cost(Single time windows)
More than 1000 references
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22ICT
VRP with Capacity Constraints (CVRP) Graph G=(N,A)
N={0,…,n+1} Nodes0 Depot, i≠0 Customers A={(i,j): i,j∈N} Arcscij >0 Transportation Costs
Demand di for each Customer iV set of identical Vehicles each with Capacity qGoal
Design a set of Routes that start and finish at the Depot - with minimal Cost.Each Customer to be visited only once (no order splitting)Total Demand for all Customers not to exceed CapacityCost: weighted sum of Driving Cost and # Routes
DVRP – distance/time constraint on each routeVRPTW – VRP with time windowsPickup and Delivery
Backhaul – VRPB(TW)Pickup and delivery VRPPD(TW)PDP
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23ICT
kijx ji
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24ICT
A mathematical model for VRPTW (Network Flow Formulation)
( , )
0
, 1
minimize (1)
subject to:1, (2)
, (3)
1, (4)
0, , (5)
1, (6)
( ) 0, ( , ) , (7)
∈ ∈
∈ ∈
∈ ∈
∈
∈ ∈
+∈
= ∀ ∈
≤ ∀ ∈
= ∀ ∈
− = ∀ ∈ ∀ ∈
= ∀ ∈
+ − ≤ ∀ ∈ ∀ ∈
∑ ∑
∑∑
∑ ∑
∑
∑ ∑
∑
kij ij
k V i j A
kij
k V j Nk
i iji C j N
kj
j Nk kih hj
i N j Nki n
i Nk k kij i ij j
i
c x
x i C
d x q k V
x k V
x x h C k V
x k V
x s t s i j A k Va , , (8)
{0,1}, ( , ) , (9)≤ ≤ ∀ ∈ ∀ ∈∈ ∀ ∈ ∀ ∈
ki i
kij
s b i N k Vx i j A k V
minimize cost
each customer 1 time
Capacity
k routes out of depot
flow balance for each customer
k routes into depot (redundant)
sequence and driving time
arrival time in time windowarc (i,j) driven by vehicle k
Arc Decisionvariables
Variables-arrival time
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25ICT
VRP Research in general
Since 1959Much harder than the TSPThousands of papersMore popular than everImportant vehicle for development of generic methodsOne of the great successes of Operations ResearchIndustry of tools for transportation optimizationQuick dissemination and exploitation of scientific advancesThe road is short from scientific to practical improvements
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26ICT
Inventory routing problem (IRP)
Inventories with capacitiesProduction/consumption rateHeterogeneous fleetDesign routes that minimize the transportation cost without interrupting production and consumption of the products
No pickup and delivery pairsQuantity loaded unknownNumber of visits unknown
Inventory level, production
TimeLB
UB
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ProductionProduction portport
ConsumptionConsumption portport
ProductProduct 11
ProductProduct 22 KjKjøøpsvikpsvik
BrevikBrevik
AltaAlta
Mo i RanaMo i Rana
TrondheimTrondheim
KarmKarmøøyy
ÅÅrdalrdal
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28ICT
Practical applications - IRP Both road-based and maritime transportation
One/multiple productsVRP and PDP structure (with and without depot)Variable production/consumption rateStochastic demand/productionCombining inventory routing with other planning aspects (production, allocation,..)
Industry casesAmmonia – YaraLNG - Suez Energy International, StatoilHydro, RasGas, QuatarGasCement - NorcemFuel oil - Hydro TexacoAnimal fodder - Landbruksdistribusjon, Felleskjøpet
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29ICT
Daily charter rate USD 60,000Shipload of LNG worth USD 10,000,000Purchase price LNG tanker USD 150,000,000
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30ICT
Fleet composition
VRP, PDP (or IRP) structure
Variable heterogeneous vehicle fleet
capacities acquisition costs….
Objective: find a fleet composition and a corresponding routing plan that minimizes the sum of routing and vehicle acquisition/depreciation/ rental costs
G-n262-k25: 5685 vs. 6119, 5767 CPU s
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31ICT
Practical applications – Fleet compositionBoth road-based and maritime transportation
Strategic and tactical fleet dimensioningOne/multiple productsVRP and PDP structure (with and without depot)Stochastic demand and price/cost structure
Industry casesCars - Høegh AutolinersLNG – Statoil Dairy products - Tine Midt-NorgeNewspapers - Aftenposten, DagbladetIce cream - Henning Olsen, Diplom is local distribution - LinjegodsChemicals – Broström Tankes (now Maersk)Cement – NorcemAnimals Norsk Kjøtt, Gilde
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32ICT
Research approachMathematical formulations for industrially relevant variants of inventory routing and fleet composition problems
AnalysisSolution methods
Exact methods (Column generation and Lagrangian relaxation)Bounds, relaxations and reductionsApproximative methods (heuristic column generation, metaheuristics)Hybrid methods (combining exact methods and metaheuristics)
Prototype solvers
Computational experiments on instances from literature and industry
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33ICT
Relevance to eScienceMathematics
mathematical modellingpolyhedral theorymathematical programming methods
Computing science, informaticsconceptual modellingsearch methodsdecision support systems
ApplicationsNumericsHigh-performance computing
computational experimentsautomated code generation for metaheuristics
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34ICT
SummaryChallenges in industry and the public sector
coordinationactivities, time, resourcesplanning, design
Computationally hard DOPs often at the core There is a strong need for more powerful methodsMany challenges, promising research avenuesApplication oriented and scientifically challengingeScienceNorway has a strong position
good scientistsgood access to application casesgood infrastructure good funding opportunities
The road is short from scientific to practical improvements
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35ICT
Conclusion
Applied research in discrete optimization deserves further funding in eVITA
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36ICT
eVITA Scientific MeetingGeilo, Norway January 28, 2010
Geir Hasle, SINTEF ICT
Optimization-based decision support within healthcare and transportation