Optical Components Market: Market Share ECOC 2016 Components Market: Market Share ECOC 2016 Kevin R....
-
Upload
vuongquynh -
Category
Documents
-
view
227 -
download
0
Transcript of Optical Components Market: Market Share ECOC 2016 Components Market: Market Share ECOC 2016 Kevin R....
Optical Components Market:
Market Share ECOC 2016Kevin R. Lefebvre, Ph.D.
Principal Analyst
Ovum
• State of Nation
• Optical Component 2Q16
• Optical Components Forecast
• Data Centers
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa3 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Guess What????
Expansion in Data Centers
Expansion in Long Haul, Metro and
Access
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa4 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Data Center Expansion
Microsoft: SDN for Cloud 2015http://conferences.sigcomm.org/sigcomm/2015/pdf/papers/keynote.pdf
Building blocks used in Google’s Jupiter topology.
Facebook’s topology.
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa5 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Over 650 million Internet users
China's three largest data center operators in the country
China Telecom, China Mobile and China Unicom
Operate over 500 facilities.
China Unicom, the country's second largesttelecom carrier
Expanding their Internet data centers to host 4 million units of computer servers
Currently has six national-level Internet data centers and a dozen smaller data centers, which now are hosting roughly 1 million servers
China Data Centers
Sampling of China Telecom Data Centers
Only fiber from their own network goes into their data centers
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa6 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent (BAT) have been taking up a lot of DC space over the last 5 years and will continue to expand
China content consumers
A large number of the China internet users are mobile user
Consume content, order services (taxis, train tickets, order food, etc.) through mobile apps and mobile payment
Use mobile chat app Wechat and social chat apps such as Wechat, MoMo,MeiTu
Mobile Videos content is very big in China with mobile gaming being second
Banking industry is not as large in China as elsewhere in the world.
China’s other Big 3
http://www.onlinestrat.fr/annuaire/corp/international/chine/index.php
China has seen double digit growth every year in DC expansion since 2008
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa7 Copyright © Informa PLC
Optical Networks and Components: Current State
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa8 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
The OC market continued its upturn during the second quarter of 2016.
China builds in mobile, access and core networks continues
Webscale data center builds in North America, China and Europe
100G and 200G coherent transmission in telecom.
Optical networking and components forecast
Source: Ovum
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa9 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Strength in the telecom segment is driven by demand for 100G coherent components and ROADMs.
The market is supported mostly by discrete components although there are some OC vendors shipping line-side transceivers.
As the market transitions to metro deployments, more pluggable transceiver will ship.
200G is also gaining rapid acceptance.
Telecom market
Source: Ovum
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa10 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Datacom continues to accelerate and will continue as more data centers start to implement 100G.
Majority of the vendors expect the rollout of 100G to pick up in the second half of the year.
Expansion of vendor’s capacity will continue to keep up with the demand.
Datacom market
Source: Ovum
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa11 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
By region: APAC is leading the Pack
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa12 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Optical Components as a whole
Source: Ovum
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa13 Copyright © Informa PLC
Optical Network and Components:
Forecast for 40-200G
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa14 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Total Optical Components Forecast 40-200G
Source: Ovum
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa15 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Optical modules by segment
Source: Ovum
Data Center
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa17 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Intra-DC transceivers (000’s)
Capex $billions
Servers: millions
WAN traffic: Pbps
Data center space:
Millions square feet
Data center market watch
Web-scale core data center builds continue and next-generation data center architectures begin to deploy
2012-2015 2016-2018
Server ports 10 Gbit/s 25 Gbit/s
Server footprint density 1x 6x-10x
Intra-data center switch fabric
40 Gbit/s 100 Gbit/s
WAN DCI traffic Multi-Wavelength
Multi-WDM system
Next-generation data centers
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa18 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
The intra–data center interconnect market
• Key buying segments are:
• The largest Internet content providers (ICPs)/OTTs with web-scale data centers
• CSPs, carrier-neutral providers, and others building or adding to their data center capacity at web scale
• The intra–data center interconnect market is a major opportunity for the component community The market is for both:
• Multimode fiber systems
• Singlemode fiber systems
Facebook’s Data Center
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa19 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Both demand-side drivers (application growth) and supply-side enablers (DC construction)
Optical component growth
New fiber and technology opportunities
ICPs build new cost-optimized web-scale data centers
New data center builds are populated with the latest architecture and intra-DCI switching fabric
ICPs also continue to take co-location space in third-party data centers for edge DCs and international markets
The petabit metro network presents a huge intra-DC and inter-DC connectivity opportunity
Transceiver market driven by a number of factors
Web-scale data center builds continuing
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa20 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Datacom expansion
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa21 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
100G WAN Ports
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa22 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
TAM for 40, 100 and 200G datacom and WAN-client transceivers
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa23 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Current PSM4 and CWDM4New construction data
centers are leaning towards CWDM4
Existing data centers are using both PSM4 and CWDM4
TAM for datacom and client-side modules by distance
Source: Ovum
100G
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa24 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
TAM for datacom and WAN-client modules by form factor
Source: Ovum
100G
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa25 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Grabbing for the Margins: Porter’s 5 Forces
Internet Content ProvidersOptical Network Vendors
CarriersThe “Public”
A lot of component suppliers and more coming
Large raw material suppliers but optical component suppliers
have low volumes especially supporting
numerous technologies
Photonics IntegrationNew Materials:
e.g. Metamaterial
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa26 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Technologies bring opportunities and challenges
Supporting various technologies
Increase in engineering, sales, product support and marketing
Reduces buying power of raw materials
Splintered product line
Solution
Finding a common platform to build upon the product
Photonics Integration
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa27 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Competitors in Photonics Integrators: Field is crowded
Potential DC usersShipping and Developing
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa28 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Metamaterials are artificially structured materials used to control and manipulate light.
Metallic or semiconductor structure where the optical properties depends on the properties of their constituent materials and from the geometrical arrangement of those materials
The elements of the structure are subwavelength and are designed to collectively interact with light
Allows for the design of smaller photonic devices since the wavelength of the electron is much smaller than the wavelength of light
Devices have been fabricated using standard CMOS processing.
Typical polarization beam splitters are on the order of 100 microns which is 50x times the size of the metamaterial device
Threat of substitute products: Metamaterials
“A scanning-electron micrograph of a polarization beamsplitter showing how light of both polarizations enters from the left waveguide and is separated into the two polarizations at the output waveguides on the right. TE: Transverse electric. TM: Transverse magnetic.”
http://spie.org/newsroom/6046-digital-metamaterials-shrink-integrated-photonic-devices
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa29 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Duke
Purdue
MIT
Exeter
Univ. of Cambridge
Univ. of Southampton
Boston Univ.
Imperial College
Berkeley
UC San Diego
Denmark Technological Univ.
Sampling of University research
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa30 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
Advanced technology III-V, Silicon, Seeding III-V onto Si or Hybrid
Are companies not in the space behind?
Opportunities
Substantial growth in the Optical Components Market
Data Center Market
Challenges
Competition is strong
Current margins for component suppliers are thin
Technology challenges
Reaching the $1/Gbps is a stretch
Opportunities and Challenges
Margins for component suppliers
Ovum | TMT intelligence | informa31 Copyright © Informa PLC ECOC 2016
There are opportunities
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2013 2014 2015 2016
10
0G
tra
nsc
eiv
er v
olu
mes
(0
00
s)
Source: Ovum
Cumulative historic 100G transceiver shipments vs. 100G requirements for one brand-new data center
100G transceivers for one fully populated DC (2016–17 vintage)
Cumulative 100G transceivers shipped todate
• New intra–data center interconnect market will create a huge 100G opportunity
• Components side, and test and measurement side
• Additional market upside is possible if more web-scale-like operators emerge
• The fine print: ICPs will be demanding on price and requirements
Thank you.Please feel free to email me at: