OPPOSITION POLITICS IN NIGERIA:

2015 AND BEYONDNigeria’s 2015 Elections:

Coming To Terms With A ‘Miracle’, Building A Better Future

By

Professor Godwin OnuRector

Federal Polytechnic, OkoAnambra State

ROAD MAP

OverviewIntroductionCoalition, Alliance and MergerUnderstanding The Role Of Opposition PartyOpposition Politics Before 2014 Theoretical FrameworkOpposition Politics In 2015 And BeyondConclusionReferences

OVERVIEW• Since Nigeria’s checkered political history, the 2015 general elections

marked the first time an opposition party, the All Progressive Congress (APC), has won a presidential election

• This history of opposition politics in Nigeria had portrayed alliances and coalitions that were weak and could not lead to power alternation with the ruling party at previous general elections till now.

• Also the gale of defections to the APC elections of the leadership of 8 th National Assembly and its fallouts are some of the factors that will interact to inform the nature of opposition politics in the present dispensation.

• In this discuss, a historical perspective of the Nigerian political experience is made, with recommendations of measures to engineer virile opposition politics that will be sustainable beyond 2015, in Nigeria

IntroductionThe formation of different political parties and associations in Nigeria during colonial era for the

agitation of independence from the British marked the beginning of democracy in the country.The Nigeria opposition politics came into the fore in the first Republic with a coalition of the

Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) and the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons/National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) while Action Group as the opposition party that gave suggestions, condemned unpopular programmes and policies of the ruling party.

The alliances, though formed to check the dominance of the ruling party, could not stand because of the selfish interests of the leaders of the opposing parties.

Before the 2003 general elections, some of the opposition politicians have defected to the PDP. Also some public office holders elected on opposition party’s platform have defected to the PDP. That marked the beginning of the problem of viable opposition in the country’s polity

The PDP won the elections in 1999 and remained the dominant party till a recent strong merger of many parties, (not alliances), that gave birth to the leading opposition party called All Progressives Congress (APC) which emerged victorious in the 2015 elections and now takes over as the ruling party.

Coalition, Alliance and MergerThe similarities between coalitions and alliances are characterized by the coming together of

a minimum of two political parties for a certain period, in pursuit of an agreed set of common goals, to be reached by means of a common strategy, joint actions, the pooling of resources and the distribution of possible pay-offs

Merger on the other hand, contemplates a marriage or a union and where two or more political parties merge to become one, the merging parties lose their registration, identities and structures, and in effect collapsed into one entity.

These political concepts are primarily differentiated by the nature of working relationships, structures, management arrangements and the ultimate goals being contemplated by the group, with elements that entail the processes to include:

The pooling of resources in pursuit of this goal,

Communication about the goal,

Forming binding commitments concerning this goal

Agreement on the distribution formula for the product/booty that may result from achieving the goal.

Understanding The Role Of Opposition PartyPolitical parties have traditional roles they play in democracies depending on the party

system and the system of government in practice. When a political party is in opposition, it assumes extra roles in addition to the

traditional roles and the challenges they face as opposition parties, especially from their ranks.

The major roles of the opposition political parties are to put the ruling political parties on their toes.

Opposition political parties ensure that the ruling political party is up and doing. They draw the attention of the ruling party to its manifesto and also ensure that it

executes the programmes as contained in the party’s manifesto. They make the ruling party to sit up and perform its duties. The opposition is expected to keep the ruling party in check all the time.The opposition parties articulate an alternative course of action from that being

implemented by the government of the day, and criticize its actions where they see fit.

Opposition Politics Before 2014 The acceptance by society of a valid role for the opposition is in itself an important underpinning

for the work of the legislature.

The experiences of opposition parties in 2007 and 2011 general were not distinct from the

previous ones; thus, Nwankwo (2015) notes that in 2007 General election the Alliance for

Democracy (AD) and other parties in western Nigeria came together to form the Action Congress

(AC) but little was achieved as it made no impact on the presidential election.

However, in the build up towards the 2015 general elections three major opposition political

parties namely the Action Congress of Nigeria, the Congress for Progressive Change, the All

Nigeria Peoples Party, and factions of two parties the All Progressives Grand Alliance and the

Peoples Democratic Party known as the ‘New PDP’ for the first time in the history of the country’s

politics formed a strong merger in 2013 that gave birth to the leading opposition party called All

Progressives Congress (APC).

The fundamental factor that resulted in the success of the opposition party was the realization

that the answer to formidable opposition political party is a merger and not alliance.

Theoretical FrameworkThis paper anchors its framework of analysis on Downs (1957) model of competitive party politics, complemented by theories of

coalitions and alliances as presented by Kadima (2014).One of the main hypotheses of Downs model is that political parties in a democracy formulate policy strictly as a means of gaining

voters.The second assumption of the model is that organizations exist to further the common interests of groups.The theories of party alliances and coalitions as presented by Kadima (2014) fill the gap; they focused on predicting and explaining

models of government formation and termination in democracies. Two main approaches are used in studying the subjects, namely the

theories of size and ideology.Pre-electoral alliances and post-election coalitions of political parties have become an increasingly significant feature of contemporary

African politics.More generally, the inadequate institutionalization of democracy, the domination of the founding leaders over their parties and the

structural and organizational weaknesses or strengths of political parties also affect not only the parties themselves but party alliances

and coalitions. In addition, the political economy of the country, especially in the context of limited career opportunities outside of

government, often leads to the building of unprincipled coalitions (Kadima 2006).Nigerian politics is characterized by ethnic consideration and pursuit of personal interest rather than service to the nation. The mission

of Nigerian politicians are essentially driven by self-enrichment at the expense of the people. As a result of this obsession; they lack

principle and therefore do not remain faithful to their parties when the going get tough. Since the Nigerian constitution allows for

freedom of association, this provides the pretext to defect to the ruling party where they would have access to power and wealth and

thereby stifling the growth of the merged political party.Another reason that accounts for the inability for opposition political parties to form sustainable alliance was that the political parties

that formed alliances in Nigerian political history have always been parties with different political ideologies.

Opposition Politics In 2015 And Beyondo The place of formidable opposition from preventing the country from degenerating into a one party state with the gale of

defection trailing the victory of All Progressive Congress (APC) cannot be over emphasized.

o The Nigerian experience which brought the All Progressive Congress (APC) to power portrays that the prevalent

circumstance at a given time could strengthened opposition politics.

o The disillusionment that trailed the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the dire need for urgent change by the

masses, irrespective of the nature or direction of the change, accounts largely for the wide acceptance of

opposition party victory, which cut across traditional cleavages and conflict drivers – ethnicity, religion, region,

and communalism – which have historically stood in the way of national consensus.

o The history of party formation, pattern of membership and defection and interests of elected legislators,

executive, party executives and financiers and the disposition of the masses will interact to define the nature of

opposition politics in 2015 and beyond.

o If we can find an issue on which all these parties agree, then that will help with the job of forming an alternative

government. But we all know that the component parties do not agree in principle on anything except taking

over government at the centre.

o The actions of the law makers against the position of the ruling party APC demonstrated that majority if not all of

them that defected to APC from the PDP, are APC in body and PDP in spirit.

Conclusion

If the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) decides to make a turn and assume its position to

lead other political parties in the opposition; some scholars have made quite a number of

suggestions that would bring about virile opposition politics to which this study ascribed,

they include:Introduction of viable democratic funding sources to prevent the party from being hijacked

by one or a few individuals with strong financial capability, who determine who the party is

run and who gets what, when and how.Allowing internal democracy to thrive; this is a corollary to the first suggestion above. This

is a crucial challenge before the PDP and prominent amongst the factors that led to mass

defection and eventually lost to the APC. The party should make its party’s political leadership part-time, so that officials of the

party could have sources of livelihood and not rely on corrupt practices to subvert party

rules and dictates of internal democracy.Opposition political parties usually avoid intra-party rivalries and connect its self to the

people and their conditions to win their sympathy, support and votes at next elections.

ThankYou

!

References Abayomi, F. (2015). Defection and future of party politics in Nigeria. Retrieved June 20, 2015 from http://dailyindependentnig.com/2015/04/defection-future-party-politics-nigeria/Adejuwon, L. (2013). Of carpet crossing and old wine in new bottle. Newswatch, 23rd December. p. 21.

Anya, V. (2013). Where are the opposition political parties? Retrieved June 20, 2015 from http://dailyindependentnig.com/2013/10/where-are-the-opposition-political-parties-2/Anyanate, E. (n.d). What manner of opposition politics in Nigeria? Retrieved June 20th, 2015

from http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/columnists/what-manner-of-opposition-politics-in-nigeria.htmlAxelrod, R. 1970. Conflict of interest: A theory of divergent goals with applications to politics. Chicago, IL: Markham. Baiyewu, L. (2015). PDP in the shoes of opposition. Retrieved June 20, 2015 from http://www.

punchng.com/politics/pdp-in-the-shoes-of-opposition/Bogaards, M. (2014). Electoral alliances in Africa: What do we know, what can we do? Journal of African Elections. Vol. 13, No. I June, pp. 25 – 42 Dahl, R. A. (1973). Polyarchy: Participation and opposition. Yale: University PressDowns, A. (1957). An economic theory of political action in a democracy. The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 65, Issue 2, pp. 135 – 150.Ejiofor, P. (2015). In making your voting decisions. Retrieved June 21, 2015 from http://national mirroronline .net/new/in-making-your-voting-decisions/Hallmark (2015). The evolution of opposition politics in Nigeria. Retrieved June 20th, 2015 from http://hallmarknews.com/the-evolution-of-opposition-politics-in-nigeria/Ikechukwu, U. G. (2015). Political nomadism and its implications on political development in

Nigeria: A critical analysis. International Journal of African and Asian Studies. Vol.9, pp. 75 – 86John, P. (2015). Lessons from the emergence of the leaders for the 8th National Assembly. Retrieved June 26, 2015 from http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/06/lessons-from-the- emergence-of-leaders-for-the-8th-national-assembly/

References Kadima, D. 2006. African party alliances: Comparisons, conclusions and lessons. In Kadima, D.

(ed). The politics of party coalitions in Africa. Johannesburg: Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and EISA.Kadima, D. (2014). An introduction to the politics of party alliances and coalitions in socially-divided Africa. Journal of African Elections. Vol. 13,

No. I June, pp. 1 – 24 Karume, S. 2003. Conceptual understanding of political coalitions in South Africa: An integration of concepts and practices. Paper presented at the

Electoral Institute of Southern Africa EISA Roundtable on ‘Political Party Coalitions: Strengthening Democracy through Party Coalition Building’, Cape TownMbah, P. (2011). Party defection and democratic consolidation in Nigeria: 1999 –2009. Afro Asian Journal of Social Sciences, 2 (2) . p. 1 – 21.Nwanegbo, J. Odigbo, J. and Nnorom, K. (2014). Party defection and sustenance of Nigerian democracy. Global Journal of Human-Social Science:

F Political Science. Volume 14 Issue 6 Nwankwo, J. C. (2015). Politics of merger of political parties in Nigeria: The past and present efforts to evolve two major parties. Journal of Policy

and Development Studies. Vol. 9, No. 2, February pp. 52 - 63 Obono-Obla, O. (2013). Why merger of opposition political parties in Nigeria has become imperative. Retrieved June 20, 2015 from http://elombah.com/index.php/articles-mainmenu/15888-why-merger-of-opposition-political-parties-in-nigeria-has-become-imperativeOgunna et al. (1988). New syllabus government (Book one). Ibadan: Evans Brothers Ltd.Ojeifo, E. (2015). Building a healthy political opposition. Retrieved June 20, 2015 from http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/2015/04/building-a-healthy-political-opposition/Okoli, A. C. (2001). The political economy of intra-party opposition in Anambra State (1999-2001). B.Sc. Project submitted to the Department of Political Science, Nnamdi Azikwe University, Akwa (December). Olasunkanmi, A. (2014). Opposition politics in Nigeria: A study of the South West. Journal Of Humanities and Social Science. Volume 19, Issue 7,

PP 137-141 pmnews (2015). Saraki rubbishes APC, names Ndume Senate Leader. Retrieved June 25, 2015

from http://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2015/06/25/saraki-rubbishes-apc-napmnewsmes-ndume- senate-leader/Robertson, D. (Ed). (1985). A Dictionary of modern politics. London: Europe Publishing LtdWyatt, A. (1999). The Limitations on coalition politics in India: The case of electoral alliances in

Uttar Pradesh’. Commonwealth & Comparative Politics 37(2)