Paraguay Notas de Poltica

Opportunities among children in Africa(Results from ongoing work)April 25, 2011Ambar Narayan , Ana Abras, Jose Cuesta and Alejandro Hoyos

The World Bank

For discussion only not to be cited without permission

1Improvement in non-income dimensions of poverty in many African countries For example, primary school enrollment increased in Ghana, Mali and Tanzania between 1996 and 2008Source: DHS, STATcompiler

But inequalities among groups within countries have evolved differently Source: DHS, STATcompiler Rich-poor gap in enrollment fell only for Ghana among the 3 countries Progress towards MDGs may conceal uneven progress among groups within countries

The probability of access to a service may depend on exogenous circumstancesThe equality of opportunity principleCircumstances outside an individuals control (e.g. birth place, gender, ethnicity, income, education of parents) should not determine the persons access to opportunitiesHuman Opportunity Index (HOI)Inequality -sensitive coverage rate that incorporates:A)The average coverage of a good or service, which society accepts should be universalB) If it is allocated according to an equality of opportunity principle A focus on childrenInequality in outcomes today is partly a reflection of inequality in opportunity in the pastDifferences in opportunities during childhood can have lifelong impacts

Data: DHS surveys of 20 African countries Choice of countries partly depends on DHS availability for relevant period Use of similar survey for comparability across countries and time period Richness of DHS allows analysis of a number of key opportunities* indicates country for which only one period data (from the more recent period) is availableCountryPeriod 1Period 2Circa 1998Circa 2006Cameroon19982004Congo RD*2007Ethiopia20002005Ghana19982008Kenya19982008-09Liberia*2007Madagascar19972008-09Malawi20002004Mali1995-962006Mozambique19972003Namibia20002006-07Niger19982006Nigeria19992008Rwanda20002005Senegal19972005Sierra Leone*2008Tanzania19962004-05Uganda19952006Zambia19962007Zimbabwe19942005-06Using HOI in different settings: a few questionsOpportunities may need to be defined differently, but reduces comparability across regionsSocial objectives of universality need not necessarily be the same in SSA and LACEven the same basic opportunities may have to be defined differently, for HOI to be usefulThe choice of circumstances what to include?Include circumstances that can be influenced by policy in future (e.g. household wealth/income), since they are exogenous to the child?Include circumstances that are exogenous to the child, but may be temporary or change rapidly over time (e.g. childs orphan status or parent in the household) ?Our approach: to include both the above types of circumstances since they provide valuable information about vulnerable groupsOpportunitiesAccess to a service that society agrees is critical for individual developmentEssential for poverty eradicationUniversality is a valid social objectiveCircumstancesSet of exogenous characteristics for the individualsSociety wants these to not influence a childs access to basic opportunitiesOpportunities

EducationSchool Attendance (6 to 11 years)School Attendance (12 to 15 years)Started primary on time (by age 6 yrs)*Finished primary on time (by age 13 yrs)**Housing/infrastructureAccess to piped waterAccess to flush toiletAccess to electricityHealthImmunization against measles (1 year)No underweight (0 to 3 years)*Measured for cohort of children of age 6-7 yrs**Measured for cohort of children of age 13-15 yrs7Circumstances

DimensionEducation OpportunitiesHousing OpportunitiesHealth OpportunitiesChild CharacteristicsChild's genderChild's genderChild's genderBirth orderHousehold CompositionChildren (0 to 15 years) in the householdChildren (0 to 15 years) in the householdSiblings living in the householdPresence of ElderlyPresence of ElderlyPresence of ElderlyPresence of both parents in the householdPresence of both parents in the householdMother living with a husband or notOrphan of any of the parentsOrphan of any of the parentsLocationUrban/RuralUrban/RuralUrban/RuralHousehold Head/Mother CharacteristicsEducation of the household headEducation of the household headEducation of the motherAge of the household headAge of the household headAge of the mother headGender of the household headGender of the household headSocioeconomic statusWealth QuintilesWealth Quintiles8HOI for African countries: school attendance(Period 2 or circa 2006) High variation in coverage and HOI across countries; ranking of countries by HOI does not always mimic ranking by coverage (e.g. Sierra Leone, Nigeria on the right panel) Coverage and HOI for attendance improve with age for most countries late entry into school? HOI tends to improve more than coverage with age do circumstances matter more for attendance of younger children, i.e. timely entry into school ?

9HOI for starting and finishing primary school on time(Period 2) Low coverage for starting primary school and finishing 6th grade on time Confirms pattern of late entry into school; not finishing 6th grade may also indicate dropouts HOI much lower than coverage for both opportunities Exogenous circumstances appear to matter more for timely entry into and finishing school than for enrollment

10HOI for immunization and malnutrition(Period 2) More variation across countries for immunization than malnutrition These opportunities more equitably distributed across children of different circumstances than school attendance

11HOI for Water and Sanitation(Period 2) Very low coverage in basic services (piped water and flush toilet) Large disparities across counties HOI and coverage significantly different in many countries high inequality of opportunity

12Which circumstances matter the most for opportunities?Shapley DecompositionLowest coverageHighest coverage13Which circumstances matter the most for opportunities in education?

Shapley DecompositionLowest coverageHighest coverage14How important is gender of the child as a circumstance?

Lowest coverageHighest coverageExample: School Attendance (6-11 years): period 2Important in some countries, but clearly other circumstances, and especially wealth status, seem to matter more15Which circumstances matter the most for opportunities in education?

Shapley Decomposition for Ghana in period 2Considerable variation in the relative contribution of circumstances to inequality even across education opportunities in the same country 16Circumstances and opportunities general observationsWealth and household head characteristics almost always matter the mostEducation of head particularly important among heads characteristicsLocation of child (urban/rural) tends to be important, but with significant variation across countriesHousehold composition and child characteristics less important for most, but with some exceptions

Francophone and Anglophone countriesPeriod 1 or circa 1998Average HOI and Coverage by Anglo Francophone

Note: each gray (blue) bar shows the simple average of HOI for a particular opportunity across all Anglophone (Francophone) countriesFrancophone and Anglophone countriesPeriod 2 or circa 2006Average HOI and Coverage by Anglo Francophone

The gap between anglo and francophone countries seems to have become smaller over time between late-1990s and late-2000s Particularly so for imminization and nutritionFrancophone and Anglophone countries: school attendance (period 2)

Anglophone countries with higher average attendance and HOI in most cases, with a few exceptions (e.g. Rwanda, Cameroon) For attendance age 12-15, gap between HOI and coverage is higher for Francophone countries than for all but 2 Anglophone countriesImprovement in HOI over time school attendanceDots are the coverage of a specific country in each of the periodsCaps are the confidence intervals of the HOI Between late 1990s and late-2000s, improvement in HOI for most countries Largest improvement in Tanzania; big improvements in Madagascar, Rwanda, Uganda, Zambia Mozambique, Nigeria: increase in coverage but no statistically significant increase in HOI Ghana, Zimbabwe: improvement in HOI larger than that in coverageNote that interval between surveys not the same for countries

21Changes in some other opportunities over timeStaring primary school on time: Ten out of 16 countries show significant progress in HOIAccess to piped water: Only Namibia and Senegal show significant progress in HOI Immunization against measles: Seven out of 16 countries show significant progress in HOINot being underweight: Eight out of 15 countries show significant progress in HOI Scale effect the most important for change in HOI in school attendance Equalization effect smaller than scale effects but still sizeable for most Composition effect small and not always positiveDecomposing the Change in HOI: attendance (6-11 yrs)

23Decomposing the change in HOI: no underweight Positive and large scale effect in most countries

24In terms of school attendance among 10-14 year olds, African countries are comparable with many countries in LAC region in coverage and HOIComparing Africa and Latin America (period 2)interesting insightsNote: All HOI used for these comparisons use the same definition of opportunities and comparable list of circumstances

Africa and Latin America (period 2) But African countries compare poorly with most LAC countries on completion of 6th grade on time More indication that late entry into school is a major problem in Africa

Encouraging trends for Africa on school attendance (Period 1 - Period 2) Large improvements in school attendance for most African countries In almost all African countries, reduction in inequality of opportunities in attendance

But mixed picture on trends for primary school completion in Africa Little or no improvement in HOI for 5 out of 16 African countries For 10 of the 11 African countries showing an improvement in completion, increase in inequality of opportunities

To summarize main findingsLower coverage and higher inequality by circumstances for education opportunities that are closer to achievement , compared to attendancePattern of late entry into school short-term consequence of rapid expansion in enrollment?Trend of many African countries converging towards Latin America on school attendance, but not for completing primary school on timeLower coverage and higher inequality for immunization, which is linked more closely to a service, compared to nutrition; low HOIs for basic infrastructure for most countriesCircumstances that matter the most: wealth, hhold head attributes, urban/ruralChild attributes like gender sometimes matter, but almost never as much as wealthUneven improvements for all opportunities other than school attendance10 or fewer countries (out of 16) show statistically significant improvement in HOIWhere there is change, scale effect usually dominates; equalization effects usually smallerAnglophone countries do much better than Francophone countries on the average, but gaps have shrunk for most opportunities over the decadeThank you

http://www.worldbank.org/povertyHuman Opportunity Index (HOI) as a measure Inequality -sensitive coverage rate that incorporates:A)The average coverage of a good or service, which society accepts should be universalB) If it is allocated according to an equality of opportunity principle Allows for monitoring of coverage and equity in access to opportunitiesDefinition of HOI: Coverage rate of a basic opportunity, discounted by the inequality in the allocation of opportunities

HOI = C0 (1-D)where, Average access (C0) Inequality of Opportunity Index (D)HOI has attractive properties as a measureSome highlights..Sensitivity to scaleIf coverage for all groups increases parallely or multiplicatively by k, HOI also increases by the same factor kSensitivity to Pareto improvementsIf coverage for one group increases without decreasing the coverage rates of the remaining groups, HOI increases Sensitivity to redistributionIf coverage rate of a vulnerable group increases holding the overall coverage rate constant, HOI also increasesChanges in HOI over time can be decomposed into:Composition effect: changes in the distribution of circumstancesScale effect: proportional change in the coverage rate of all groupsEqualization effect: increase in the coverage of vulnerable groups keeping the average coverage rate unchanged

Empirically computing HOIEstimate a logit model, the dependent variable is the opportunity (access to water, sanitation, completing 6th grade on time,etc.) and independent variables are the circumstances (gender, ethnicity, parents income, location, etc.)Obtain the predicted probabilities of the logit for each individualEstimate the Inequality of Opportunity Index (D):

n: Total number of individuals in the sample4.Estimate the Human Opportunity Index (HOI):

Note that the estimated HOI then depends on the likelihood or chance that a child with a set of circumstances has access to a particular opportunity

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