Commentary June 2003

-Gauging Progress Toward Sustainability-A Communication Innovation

Opinions and insights from the International Institute for Sustainable DevelopmentIISD

Canada’s energy sector has matured. Beginning with a focus on the producer in the early 1900s and living through shifts in focus including energy security during the oil crisis of the 1970s, we have arrived at the federal government’s current energy policy orientation of sustainable development. Sustainable development acknowledges the interdependency of our economic, social and environmental systems and strives to meet the needs of present generations without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

By Darren A. Swanson

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This sustainable development orientation guides society to better production and use of our energy. Knowing the direction we are going is an essential start, but monitoring society’s progress is an important check and balance during the journey. Communicating this progress requires an innovative approach to bridge the gap among the actions of policy-makers, the behaviour of society, and the state of the economic, social and environmental systems in which we live.

The Energy Sustainability Gauge, shown below, was designed to address this communication need for Canada’s energy sector. The Energy Sustainability Gauge is an interactive Internet-based communication tool that draws attention to a few key issues in the energy sector and performs two assessments. First, the gauge assesses society’s progress toward sustainability in the key issues using available data and comparing the progress against quantitative objectives found in the policy literature. Second, the gauge assesses the extent to which a mix of policy instruments has been implemented by the national-level government to address the key issues.

In 2002, the Energy Sustainability Gauge analyzed four salient energy development issues: greenhouse gas emissions, non-conventional renewable energy use, on-road automobile fuel effi ciency and overall energy effi ciency. How is society progressing toward sustainable energy development? As illustrated below, while current progress appears dim, our future is bright.

Greenhouse Gas EmissionsIn terms of the environment, greenhouse gas emissions are a key issue in Canada because of climate change and because we have recently ratifi ed the Kyoto Protocol—an international agreement requiring Canada to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by approximately six per cent by the year 2012.

• Gauging society’s progress: How is Canada doing with regard to reducing greenhouse gas emissions? As of 2000, Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions were still on the rise, moving farther away from the Kyoto target

• Gauging national policy implementation:Is reducing greenhouse gases on the radar screen of the federal government? The Energy Sustainability Gauge indicates that yes it is. The federal government, in addition to providing Canada with a real and measurable objective via the Kyoto Protocol, has directed at least 38 different policy instruments at greenhouse gases including education and awareness, research and development, and procurement of green technologies. However,

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key economic instruments such as tradable permits and regulations have not yet been implemented, resulting in a policy implementation gauge reading of medium. Encouragingly, the latter is on the drawing board.

Non-conventional renewable energy useSustainable energy development is about more than just the environment—it is also about economic effi ciency and security, and equitable access to energy. Renewable energy use is an issue that is relevant to all of these. Currently, approximately two-thirds of electricity in Canada is generated by renewable hydroelectricity, placing Canada well at the forefront of renewable energy use in the world. However, Canada has only just begun to tap into its vast resource of innovative non-conventional renewable resources such as wind, solar, geothermal and sustainable biomass.

• Gauging society’s progress: Canada, through its 2002 Climate Change Plan, called for approximately 3,000 megawatts of capacity from non-conventional renewable resources in 10 years.1 Gauging society’s progress in this regard we see that when using installed wind power as a proxy for non-conventional renewable energy sources, Canada is only seven per cent of the way towards a 3,000 MW objective. But if the current rate of progress can be maintained, we should more than achieve our objective in 10 years.

• Gauging national policy implementation:This level of progress makes sense in light of the above medium policy implementation reading on the Energy Sustainability Gauge. As of 2002, the federal government had implemented a mix of subsidies, tax breaks, research and development, education and awareness, and green procurement policies.

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1 Based on a 3.9 MT reduction in GHG emissions from emerging renewable resources cited in the plan and assuming an equal displacement of coal, natural gas and oil energy sources.

Automobile On-Road Fuel Effi ciencyConsider automobile fuel effi ciency as another key issue in sustainable energy development. During the 1980s the on-road fl eet of automobiles in Canada realized a 50 per cent improvement in average fuel effi ciency in response to standards introduced in the United States. However, very little has happed since then.

• Gauging society’s progress: In 2002, the federal government through its Climate Change Plan called for a 25 per cent increase in fuel effi ciency in new vehicles – a reasonable objective given the signifi cant improvement realized in the 1980s. How does Canada’s on-road fl eet of vehicles measure up to this new-fl eet objective? As indicated on the Energy Sustainability Gauge, Canada is only three per cent of the way toward a 25 per cent increase in fuel effi ciency and is improving at only one-fi fth of the rate necessary to reach it.

• Gauging national policy implementation:The extent to which a mix of policies is being implemented to address fuel effi ciency in Canada is discouraging. As of 2002, there were only about nine policies directed at this issue by the federal government, none of which included any economic or regulatory instruments.

Overall energy effi ciencyFinally, in terms of the overall energy effi ciency of Canada’s economy, it can be seen that progress is being made, but that an increased level of effort or effectiveness is needed.

• Gauging society’s progress: The Energy Sustainability Gauge for effi ciency indicates that Canada’s current rate of improvement in overall energy effi ciency is one per cent per year. However, in considering a two times business-as-usual improvement over 10 years, which New Zealand is pursuing, our rate of progress is only half of what is necessary.

• Gauging national policy implementation: Energy effi ciency is a relatively mature issue in Canada. Consequently, upwards of 24 different policy instruments including subsidies, education and awareness, research and development, regulations, and green procurement instruments have been implemented by the federal government. Canada’s new Climate Change Plan calls for renewed attention to energy effi ciency and is likely to speed up our sustainability progress rate.

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So just what is Canada’s outlook in terms of sustainable energy development? The Kyoto Protocol has undoubtedly been, and will continue to be, a gelling agent in Canada’s current policy orientation of sustainable energy development. It has sparked renewed policy activity in all aspects of energy including effi ciency, security, access and clean technologies. So while current progress relating to sustainable energy development appears dim, we can be confi dent that our rate of progress will increase as we begin to see the infl uence of a mix of policy instruments implemented under Canada’s efforts to assist the global community in addressing climate change.

In presenting an assessment of society’s progress toward sustainability in key issues and the extent to which these issues are on the radar screen of national-level policy-makers, the Energy Sustainability Gauge bridges a critical communication gap among the policy-makers, society and the economic, social and environmental systems in which we live.

Darren A. Swanson is an IISD Research Associate. The Energy Sustainability Gauge was developed by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) in Winnipeg in collaboration with The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) in India. Funding for the Energy Sustainability Gauge was provided by the Canadian International Development Agency as part of the TERI-Canada Energy Effi ciency project.

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